The dangerous elderly driver thread.

[NomisR]

Planes are even safer to travel in than a car.  And they're flying through the air!  Much more difficult concept.  If anything, you're arguing that automation is safer.

Yeah, but different scenarios as well..  You have significantly more space in the air and less traffic on top of that.  And along with the fact that these planes are constantly maintained and checked all the time which is not done for regular car or expected to be done.  And cars travel at greater density and greater variables than a plane would as autopilot on, you typically wouldn't have to deal with a moose suddenly running in front of you as a car would.  And the size of the jumbo jets, any birds they come across would be more similar to striking a bug, but at the altitute they fly at with autopilot, birds aren't as big of an issue to begin with.

[Raza]

If these self driving cars do come out, I think you guys are just imagining a world where driving is dead.  Personally, I think the recreational driving market would explode.  You'd have a living room on wheels to deliver you to work every day, but then you'd have something like an Ariel Atom and lots of tracks around to exploit it.  Autonomous cars would drive the price down on something like an Atom to make it a $10-$15k toy.

I don't know about you guys, but that sounds like a pretty awesome scenario.  Sitting through rush hour traffic while napping or watching TV is much preferred over driving.  I'm imagining that episode of Top Gear where Jeremy tries to build a British living room in the back of a car   Fireplace, 4 seats all facing each other.

I think you've got it the wrong way round.  Prices would go through the roof and manually driven cars would become a luxury that few could afford.  Most people right now can afford only one car or have only one car for other reasons (that's why things like sport sedans exist, or why people drive gas guzzling SUVs to work everyday instead of having a dedicated commuter car).  I can't afford to run two cars and I make more than the average household in the US.

[Raza]

Planes are even safer to travel in than a car.  And they're flying through the air!  Much more difficult concept.  If anything, you're arguing that automation is safer.

Would you get on a plane that doesn't have a pilot?

When was the last time a plane had a tire blow out on the move or had to react to a child or animal running in front of it or had to control a slide due to black ice? 

Flight is simple.  They're basically there all by themselves and have air traffic controllers guiding their moves. 

[MrH]

Would you get on a plane that doesn't have a pilot?

When was the last time a plane had a tire blow out on the move or had to react to a child or animal running in front of it or had to control a slide due to black ice? 

Flight is simple.  They're basically there all by themselves and have air traffic controllers guiding their moves. 

If it was proven to work and be safer than a piloted aircraft, sure.  Why wouldn't I?

...there's turbulence.  Which is a hell of a lot harder to control than braking in a straight line.  The fact you think flight is simple is hilarious.  There are so many systems in place that just keep in going in a straight line.  There are planes that are naturally unstable on all three axes.  Computers have to be in place or it would just spin wildly out of control.  Cars are caveman engineered in comparison.

I think you've got it the wrong way round.  Prices would go through the roof and manually driven cars would become a luxury that few could afford.  Most people right now can afford only one car or have only one car for other reasons (that's why things like sport sedans exist, or why people drive gas guzzling SUVs to work everyday instead of having a dedicated commuter car).  I can't afford to run two cars and I make more than the average household in the US.

No, everything becomes simpler when you don't have idiot drivers involved.  Tear dropped shaped living rooms, no airbags, no crumble zones.  The game for basic cars changes completely if this happens.  Your track car could be similar to an ariel atom or caterham, which will only come down in price when demand comes up.

[Raza]

If it was proven to work and be safer than a piloted aircraft, sure.  Why wouldn't I?

...there's turbulence.  Which is a hell of a lot harder to control than braking in a straight line.  The fact you think flight is simple is hilarious.  There are so many systems in place that just keep in going in a straight line.  There are planes that are naturally unstable on all three axes.  Computers have to be in place or it would just spin wildly out of control.  Cars are caveman engineered in comparison.

You're fucking nuts, man.  You feel free going up in a plane without a pilot, you'll be sorely missed when it comes crashing down.  Flight is simple may have been an overstatement, but autopilot tackles a completely different type of task, with a crew constantly monitoring the systems, and air traffic control.  Air travel and car travel are not remotely comparable.

No, everything becomes simpler when you don't have idiot drivers involved.  Tear dropped shaped living rooms, no airbags, no crumble zones.  The game for basic cars changes completely if this happens.  Your track car could be similar to an ariel atom or caterham, which will only come down in price when demand comes up.

You're saying that completely redesigned and completely automated would cost less than an average mainstreamer?  And you think that they'd get rid of safety features?  That's right, you think putting your life in the hands of a computer and a computer only is a good idea. 

If this shit ever happens, leave me the fuck out of it.  Your idea of automated driving is so idealized it's ridiculous.  We don't live in Minority Report or I, Robot. 

[MrH]

You're fucking nuts, man.  You feel free going up in a plane without a pilot, you'll be sorely missed when it comes crashing down.  Flight is simple may have been an overstatement, but autopilot tackles a completely different type of task, with a crew constantly monitoring the systems, and air traffic control.  Air travel and car travel are not remotely comparable.

You're saying that completely redesigned and completely automated would cost less than an average mainstreamer?  And you think that they'd get rid of safety features?  That's right, you think putting your life in the hands of a computer and a computer only is a good idea. 

If this shit ever happens, leave me the fuck out of it.  Your idea of automated driving is so idealized it's ridiculous.  We don't live in Minority Report or I, Robot. 

I'm left wondering if this is all an act to further your persona of being some sort of aged hard ass.

[NomisR]

If it was proven to work and be safer than a piloted aircraft, sure.  Why wouldn't I?

...there's turbulence.  Which is a hell of a lot harder to control than braking in a straight line.  The fact you think flight is simple is hilarious.  There are so many systems in place that just keep in going in a straight line.  There are planes that are naturally unstable on all three axes.  Computers have to be in place or it would just spin wildly out of control.  Cars are caveman engineered in comparison.


No, everything becomes simpler when you don't have idiot drivers involved.  Tear dropped shaped living rooms, no airbags, no crumble zones.  The game for basic cars changes completely if this happens.  Your track car could be similar to an ariel atom or caterham, which will only come down in price when demand comes up.

Like I said before, unless there's a massive overhaul on infrastructure, I don't see this likely in the near future.  There would be a big period where old manual driven cars are mixed with automated cars.  And then you would run into all the problems i've noted before.  Best case scenario would be transportation pod type thing that merges with some sort of rail system on the fly to transport people to their final destination.  But again, infrastructure needed.  Automated cars would run into a lot of liability problems at least in the US making waves for public transportation similar to transportation pods I mentioned. 

[Cookie Monster]

OK, I agree with the fact that cars will be safer with computers. However, what I don't agree with is that manually controlled cars would become cheaper. There is no way that there would be enough demand from just enthusiasts to justify producing conventional cars, and if there were, it'd be prohibitively expensive for 95% of people out there. I don't see how you think prices would go down at all. Hell, most companies can't even make a business case for building a sports car right now. I'm not sure how you think they'd be willing to make them once the majority of the driving public switches to automated cars.

It's like the horse. It used to be a cheap form of transportation that everyone used. As they all moved to cars, the prices of owning and maintaining a horse (sounds weird) went up and now it's a rich white person sport. The same will happen with cars. The problem is, you don't have to engineer a horse, but you have to engineer a car, and ultimately I think they'll stop being made.

Plus, I highly doubt manual cars would be allowed on the roads with automated cars, just like how horses aren't on roads with cars nowadays.

[MrH]

OK, I agree with the fact that cars will be safer with computers. However, what I don't agree with is that manually controlled cars would become cheaper. There is no way that there would be enough demand from just enthusiasts to justify producing conventional cars, and if there were, it'd be prohibitively expensive for 95% of people out there. I don't see how you think prices would go down at all. Hell, most companies can't even make a business case for building a sports car right now. I'm not sure how you think they'd be willing to make them once the majority of the driving public switches to automated cars.

It's like the horse. It used to be a cheap form of transportation that everyone used. As they all moved to cars, the prices of owning and maintaining a horse (sounds weird) went up and now it's a rich white person sport. The same will happen with cars. The problem is, you don't have to engineer a horse, but you have to engineer a car, and ultimately I think they'll stop being made.

Plus, I highly doubt manual cars would be allowed on the roads with automated cars, just like how horses aren't on roads with cars nowadays.

There's enough demand for Ariel Atoms and Caterham's right now.  Now imagine that's the only option for driving fun...

Going from a thousand or two a year to making 50,000 a year is a HUGE difference.  If one of the big OEMs had 50,000 units a year worth of demand, they could make something bad ass for pretty cheap.

[MX793]

Plus, I highly doubt manual cars would be allowed on the roads with automated cars, just like how horses aren't on roads with cars nowadays.

Horses and horse-drawn carriages/karts/buggies can and are legally operated on roads with cars.

[Raza]

Horses and horse-drawn carriages/karts/buggies can and are legally operated on roads with cars.

Yeah, but only surface streets.  Not on highways, which is what I think he meant.

[MX793]

Yeah, but only surface streets.  Not on highways, which is what I think he meant.

I haven't seen them on interstates or limited access roads, but I've seen them on rural highways (55 mph, mostly 2-lane but sometimes 4).

[Raza]

I haven't seen them on interstates or limited access roads, but I've seen them on rural highways (55 mph, mostly 2-lane but sometimes 4).

Must vary state to state, which makes sense since it's motor vehicle code.  As far as I know, nothing but motor vehicles are allowed on highways in PA (and I think NJ too); no bicycles, horses, skateboards, or what not.  I don't know about scooters or mopeds. 

[JWC]

Cars that drive you to work and to the mall.  Maybe even have a system where you can program your vehicle to connect to other vehicles and save on energy use.  You can just check a schedule and see where you can meet up with others for the ride. It will be one big vehicle of commuters.

Isn't that a bus?

[hotrodalex]

There's enough demand for Ariel Atoms and Caterham's right now.  Now imagine that's the only option for driving fun...

Going from a thousand or two a year to making 50,000 a year is a HUGE difference.  If one of the big OEMs had 50,000 units a year worth of demand, they could make something bad ass for pretty cheap.

I bet the market would be similar to the ATV/dirtbike market, which aren't exactly cheap.

[12,000 RPM]

OK, I agree with the fact that cars will be safer with computers. However, what I don't agree with is that manually controlled cars would become cheaper. There is no way that there would be enough demand from just enthusiasts to justify producing conventional cars, and if there were, it'd be prohibitively expensive for 95% of people out there. I don't see how you think prices would go down at all. Hell, most companies can't even make a business case for building a sports car right now. I'm not sure how you think they'd be willing to make them once the majority of the driving public switches to automated cars.

It's like the horse. It used to be a cheap form of transportation that everyone used. As they all moved to cars, the prices of owning and maintaining a horse (sounds weird) went up and now it's a rich white person sport. The same will happen with cars. The problem is, you don't have to engineer a horse, but you have to engineer a car, and ultimately I think they'll stop being made.

Plus, I highly doubt manual cars would be allowed on the roads with automated cars, just like how horses aren't on roads with cars nowadays.

There are kit cars out there assembled for like $30K. Thats reasonable to me

Plus enthusiast cars could be made w/o all the stupid safety regs, further driving down costs. Since it would be much less likely for an idiot driver to hit you.

Raza has gone completely off his rocker on this one. I think the thought of automated cars triggers some deep seated fight or flight response. Dude is not speaking rationally or even acknowledging any facts that don't coincide w/his preconceptions. Point blank American drivers suck and computers would do a better job, on average. That dude trusts alcoholics and teenagers more than computers says it all

[NomisR]

There are kit cars out there assembled for like $30K. Thats reasonable to me

Plus enthusiast cars could be made w/o all the stupid safety regs, further driving down costs. Since it would be much less likely for an idiot driver to hit you.

Raza has gone completely off his rocker on this one. I think the thought of automated cars triggers some deep seated fight or flight response. Dude is not speaking rationally or even acknowledging any facts that don't coincide w/his preconceptions. Point blank American drivers suck and computers would do a better job, on average. That dude trusts alcoholics and teenagers more than computers says it all

It really depends on how transportation evolves. 

If we end up with something like this



manual cars will end up costing more

If we have something similar to cars today where parts are readily available and can be sourced for kit car type things, cost won't go up too much.  Right now, kit cars costs the price they do because majority of the parts are sourced from mass produced vehicles.  If the parts aren't interchangeable then prices of manual cars goes up significantly...

[MX793]

Must vary state to state, which makes sense since it's motor vehicle code.  As far as I know, nothing but motor vehicles are allowed on highways in PA (and I think NJ too); no bicycles, horses, skateboards, or what not.  I don't know about scooters or mopeds. 

I think you're thinking of limited-access highways, which are a subset of highway.  A highway is any main road that connects population centers (I generally classify them as roads with speed limits in excess of 45 mph).  They may or may not be multi-lane, divided, and/or limited access.  US Rte 11, for instance, is a highway but is not limited-access (portions may be, but large stretches are not).  In contrast, roads in the Interstate system are usually limited access (and non-motor vehicles are not permitted).

[JWC]

I think you're thinking of limited-access highways, which are a subset of highway.  A highway is any main road that connects population centers (I generally classify them as roads with speed limits in excess of 45 mph).  They may or may not be multi-lane, divided, and/or limited access.  US Rte 11, for instance, is a highway but is not limited-access (portions may be, but large stretches are not).  In contrast, roads in the Interstate system are usually limited access (and non-motor vehicles are not permitted).

I was just viewing a webpage about how different areas of the U.S. have different names for the same thing.  Highway was one of those names.

[NomisR]

I think you're thinking of limited-access highways, which are a subset of highway.  A highway is any main road that connects population centers (I generally classify them as roads with speed limits in excess of 45 mph).  They may or may not be multi-lane, divided, and/or limited access.  US Rte 11, for instance, is a highway but is not limited-access (portions may be, but large stretches are not).  In contrast, roads in the Interstate system are usually limited access (and non-motor vehicles are not permitted).

freeway has limited access whereas a highway can have stoplights and intersections..

[12,000 RPM]

It really depends on how transportation evolves. 

If we end up with something like this



manual cars will end up costing more

If we have something similar to cars today where parts are readily available and can be sourced for kit car type things, cost won't go up too much.  Right now, kit cars costs the price they do because majority of the parts are sourced from mass produced vehicles.  If the parts aren't interchangeable then prices of manual cars goes up significantly...

Well I see it like this

Theres currently a certain number of people willing to plop down $$$ for brand new stickshift cars

Im thinking those will be the people who will want to buy human-driven cars. Also there are crate motors and transmissions for shit like old Rustangs. Those will prob be the basis of new kits. There's also a shit ton of old existing motors in shit like old Honda Accords. That's another place for people to base their kits around.

If anything there would be "universal" kits that could take any engine. Everything doesn't have to be all perfectly integrated and shit like a real car. I think there's potential.

[Madman]

If it was proven to work and be safer than a piloted aircraft, sure.  Why wouldn't I?

...there's turbulence.  Which is a hell of a lot harder to control than braking in a straight line.  The fact you think flight is simple is hilarious.  There are so many systems in place that just keep in going in a straight line.  There are planes that are naturally unstable on all three axes.  Computers have to be in place or it would just spin wildly out of control.

This plane flew all the way across the Atlantic without a single computer on board......




Oh no, how did he ever survive?!?!? 

[Soup DeVille]

Your track car could be similar to an ariel atom or caterham, which will only come down in price when demand comes up.

This part at least has me scratching my head.

[Soup DeVille]

This plane flew all the way across the Atlantic without a single computer on board......




Oh no, how did he ever survive?!?!? 

He didn't have a front window, so he never worried about where he was going.

[Cookie Monster]

There's enough demand for Ariel Atoms and Caterham's right now.  Now imagine that's the only option for driving fun...

Going from a thousand or two a year to making 50,000 a year is a HUGE difference.  If one of the big OEMs had 50,000 units a year worth of demand, they could make something bad ass for pretty cheap.

I don't think having one or two options as your only source of fun motoring is an appealing idea.

[Raza]

Cars that drive you to work and to the mall.  Maybe even have a system where you can program your vehicle to connect to other vehicles and save on energy use.  You can just check a schedule and see where you can meet up with others for the ride. It will be one big vehicle of commuters.

Isn't that a bus?

[Raza]

I think you're thinking of limited-access highways, which are a subset of highway.  A highway is any main road that connects population centers (I generally classify them as roads with speed limits in excess of 45 mph).  They may or may not be multi-lane, divided, and/or limited access.  US Rte 11, for instance, is a highway but is not limited-access (portions may be, but large stretches are not).  In contrast, roads in the Interstate system are usually limited access (and non-motor vehicles are not permitted).

Yes, I mean limited access highways. 

[Raza]

There are kit cars out there assembled for like $30K. Thats reasonable to me

Plus enthusiast cars could be made w/o all the stupid safety regs, further driving down costs. Since it would be much less likely for an idiot driver to hit you.

Raza has gone completely off his rocker on this one. I think the thought of automated cars triggers some deep seated fight or flight response. Dude is not speaking rationally or even acknowledging any facts that don't coincide w/his preconceptions. Point blank American drivers suck and computers would do a better job, on average. That dude trusts alcoholics and teenagers more than computers says it all

I think your utopian view of automation is extremely idealistic and naive.  I know exactly how good or bad the average American driver is.  I don't trust them, I trust myself.  Automate driving and you lose your last line of defense against the myriad of problems that computers have. 

[MrH]

I think your utopian view of automation is extremely idealistic and naive.  I know exactly how good or bad the average American driver is.  I don't trust them, I trust myself.  Automate driving and you lose your last line of defense against the myriad of problems that computers have. 

You're more out of touch with technology than my parents.  Honestly, it's kind of impressive

If you told me when I was in 2nd grade we'd have a 5" touch screen that could tell us EVERYTHING, I wouldn't believe you.  You'd probably claim it as the downfall of society and we should fear it.

[12,000 RPM]

I think your utopian view of automation is extremely idealistic and naive.  I know exactly how good or bad the average American driver is.  I don't trust them, I trust myself.  Automate driving and you lose your last line of defense against the myriad of problems that computers have.

Its amazing how you exaggerate the problems computers have and completely ignore the problems people have. Again computers are already controlling cars. Your car has an electronic throttle for fucks sake. Electronics have been in auto safety systems for a good 30 yrs now. Can you point to any deaths or accidents stemming from these systems? How do those #s compare to the # of accidents and deaths caused by human error?

When it comes to humans you will never go broke betting on stupid. Meanwhile computers only continue to gain in computational ability and reliability. Its a no brainer dude.