Cadillac's Euro reboot may have implications for US models, sales

[12,000 RPM]

And what authority or insight do you have on this?

The same as any other casual observer. People keep saying 'analysts analysts analysts' but dont seem to be able to point to anything "non-proprietary" that speaks to the analysts being right.

[MrH]

The same as any other casual observer. People keep saying 'analysts analysts analysts' but dont seem to be able to point to anything "non-proprietary" that speaks to the analysts being right.

The fact they have a job doing the analyzing gives them more authority on the subject than you.  You're looking a drop of water in a vast ocean, and trying to predict how big the waves are going to be half way around the world.  You're using the fact that GM has made a mistake in the past as justification for why you are right.  You're not making any sense.

[12,000 RPM]

Can you make any argument for Caddy in Europe that doesn't rely on the repeated assertion that analysts know more than me?

By this silly logic why discuss industry goings on at all if any opinion that doesn't jive with what a company decides to do? What about the analysts that gave the green light for Caddy's current status in Europe or missed sales marks for the ATS?

[MexicoCityM3]

Can you make any argument for Caddy in Europe that doesn't rely on the repeated assertion that analysts know more than me?

But they do.

[MrH]

Can you make any argument for Caddy in Europe that doesn't rely on the repeated assertion that analysts know more than me?

By this silly logic why discuss industry goings on at all if any opinion that doesn't jive with what a company decides to do? What about the analysts that gave the green light for Caddy's current status in Europe or missed sales marks for the ATS?

I think it's fine to discuss.  You can speculate all you want, but it's ridiculous to think you definitely know better than they do when you've got nothing to go on besides playing Monday morning quarterback with nearly zero info.

I don't think they'll ever become a powerhouse in Europe either, but I don't think they'll lose a ton for trying.  Maybe it's an attempt just to learn more about the market, and it's worth the cost to them. Maybe they've got excess capacity here in the states, so the cost of trying is pretty minimal.  I don't know

Attempting to sell Cadillac's in Europe is pennies compared to what they're losing in Europe due to excess capacity anyways.

[AltinD]

Analysts can and have been wrong. Ultimately it's still a forecast/prediction so it will never be 100% accurate. I'm sure Lexus and Infiniti didn't go into Europe expecting to fail as miserably as they do, even without the diesels. Plus I get the feeling that sometimes a company wanting to do something colors how they interpret or even gather data to help them make an "informed" decision. GM decided it has to compete with the Germans so they have to make a 3 and 5 fighter and gain legitimacy on the German's home turf. Regardless of whether that will be the move that helps them grow the brand through volume, profit and longevity. So even if the analytics point to some relatively decent outcome that doesn't mean the path chosen is the best one.



Maybe things have turned around very, very recently, but even still, general macro trends are pointing to a continued decline not just in car sales but miles driven and people getting licenses. It's especially prevalent in Europe and Japan which are more dense, better connected with public transportation, and increasingly expensive to own even a cheap car.

LOL, why are you posting a chart prepared 2 years ago?

All EU markets have increased big this year.

[12,000 RPM]

I think it's fine to discuss.  You can speculate all you want, but it's ridiculous to think you definitely know better than they do when you've got nothing to go on besides playing Monday morning quarterback with nearly zero info.

I never said I know better than they do. You keep defaulting to their expertise but have yet to present anything to validate it in this case, and keep dismissing the fact that these very same "analysts" have been wrong about Caddy in Europe for the last decade.

I don't think they'll ever become a powerhouse in Europe either, but I don't think they'll lose a ton for trying.

So even you agree that pushing Caddy into Europe will be a net negative, undermining your whole "analyst faith" thing.

Maybe it's an attempt just to learn more about the market, and it's worth the cost to them. Maybe they've got excess capacity here in the states, so the cost of trying is pretty minimal.  I don't know

Aren't the analysts supposed to help them learn about the market before they dive into it? And what good will dumping excess capacity from here into Europe do if Europe doesn't want the cars?

Attempting to sell Cadillac's in Europe is pennies compared to what they're losing in Europe due to excess capacity anyways.

Which is all the more reason for them to focus elsewhere, rather than add to that overcapacity and wasted effort

Basically you agree that Caddy + Europe = bad idea, but wanted to argue and threw out the copout of "analysts" to do so. W/e. Good ideas (pushing into China, jumping into the booming small luxury CUV segment, investing in fuel economy tech) don't need "proprietary analyst data" to have a case made for them

LOL, why are you posting a chart prepared 2 years ago?

All EU markets have increased big this year.

Link?

[MrH]

I never said I know better than they do. You keep defaulting to their expertise but have yet to present anything to validate it in this case, and keep dismissing the fact that these very same "analysts" have been wrong about Caddy in Europe for the last decade.

There are countless soft costs we can't even begin to grasp.  How are they "wrong"?  Again, this could all be a cheap experiment to test the market.  Who knows?  Maybe that information is worth the small cost to them.  We have no idea.

So even you agree that pushing Caddy into Europe will be a net negative, undermining your whole "analyst faith" thing.

I said Cadillac probably won't take off.  Can we please have a discussion without you putting words in someone's mouth?  Again, it doesn't undermine anything.  We don't even know the beginning of what goes into this business case.  There could be other benefits outside of just pure dollars pushing this.

Aren't the analysts supposed to help them learn about the market before they dive into it? And what good will dumping excess capacity from here into Europe do if Europe doesn't want the cars?

They've forgotten more about these markets than you'll ever know.  They do this for a living.

Because even if they just sell a few, that thins the fixed costs for all the Cadillacs sold else where.  The more total volume they can sell, the more they thin out the fixed costs of developing and producing a new model.  The more you sell, the more profitable everything becomes.

Which is all the more reason for them to focus elsewhere, rather than add to that overcapacity and wasted effort

Basically you agree that Caddy + Europe = bad idea, but wanted to argue and threw out the copout of "analysts" to do so. W/e. Good ideas (pushing into China, jumping into the booming small luxury CUV segment, investing in fuel economy tech) don't need "proprietary analyst data" to have a case made for them

Shipping vehicles from the US to Europe doesn't add to the overcapacity issue   I'm not sure if you understand what overcapacity means.

All I'm saying is that the business case to determine whether it's worth bringing Cadillac to Europe is incredibly complex, and we have 0% of the information.  You're posting your gut reaction and saying everyone else is wrong.

[hotrodalex]

Selling however many vehicles in Europe isn't what you should be looking at. Gotta look at how many vehicles have been sold at each dealership and if that is a good number. Rome wasn't built in a day, that type of thing.

[AltinD]

Here you go 12,000 RPM:  10% increase in March, 8% for the 1st quarter (compared to same period 2013)

http://europe.autonews.com/article/20140417/ANE/140419822/european-car-sales-rise-10-as-replacements-help-automakers

[12,000 RPM]

OK, so that's one hurdle. Europeans are buying cars again. What about the fact that that 10% increase for Caddy would amount to them selling ~40 more cars across the whole continent? I don't think people appreciate the depth of Caddy's irrelevance in Europe.

[hotrodalex]

So just don't even try?

[Galaxy]

OK, so that's one hurdle. Europeans are buying cars again. What about the fact that that 10% increase for Caddy would amount to them selling ~40 more cars across the whole continent? I don't think people appreciate the depth of Caddy's irrelevance in Europe.

The % for the general market does not directly translate to individual companies. Niche companies can generate increases of several hundred percent. Additionally, it is a question of how much damage Cadillac can inflict on the european makes in their home markets. Europeans might be willing to pay a a higher price for a home player, but that only works up to a certain amount. Cadillac can limit the creme on the coffee.

[Xer0]

Poor GM; they give up on products after one model cycle and whole brands and people call them idiots for not trying, then they try and devote years to try and build a brand in Europe and people call them idiots for trying.  Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[12,000 RPM]

So just don't even try?

Why not? Sometimes the best move is no move. I dont understand why US and Japanese makers are so obsessed with Europe.... European manufacturers are focusing on growth outside of Europe as well as finding growth by looking outside the "same sausage different length" formulas. Why adopt a strategy the companies you are trying to emulate abandoned years ago?

[MrH]

[12,000 RPM]

You keep deepthroating the analysts.... if they are so smart, why has Cadillac continued to fail in Europe? What possible metrics of success besides sales volume could you use to measure a car company's success in a region? How is the "same sausage different sizes" strategy the move when the companies that invented that are moving to other niches to increase volume?

Are you really going to sit here and lie and say you've never questioned the moves or failures of manufacturers? Where were the "analysts" then and how come you didn't default to their expertise then?

[MrH]

You keep bringing up the same points, which I keep explaining.  You're just ignoring anything I post anyways.

[12,000 RPM]

You are certain this is all GM's plan but can't point to anything concrete to demonstrate it, besides analysts "forgetting more than I've ever known". It sounds more to me like you are just full of crap TBH.

[MrH]

You've yet to prove there's some substantial loss for even testing the market.

And yes, I'm full of shit. You know, the guy that makes business cases in the automotive industry is full of shit. But the guy with the gut feeling claiming every OEM is wrong knows everything. Got it man.

[12,000 RPM]

*yawn*

You work for a component maker, not a car company. Little different to make a business case for a $600 shock than a $60000 car.

You're right though, this is going nowhere. When Caddy fails in Europe for the umpteenth time, maybe then you will come to your senses

[MrH]

Ah, so my experience isn't relevant enough to your liking. Cool bro.