Big lines forming for prospective Tesla Model 3 buyers

[AutobahnSHO]

And "not bad" is not what is going to sell electric cars.  They need to be different.

First time I saw a Tesla it was parked in front of a fancy "for the stars" diner right outside Nashville. Said diner had a free charger installed, and a spot reserved for EV cars, back in 2012.

People were gawking and taking pictures of the car like you wouldn't believe. They just look sexy.

Prius sold like crazy cuz it was 'cool' but different than the rest. (hybrid civics anyone? who cares?!?!?!!!)  Tesla needs to maintain that their cars are different than all the cars before it- because they are. No need for that giant lump under the hood in front. Etc...

[ifcar]

Being uniquely styled gets attention, but it's not just a matter of style. The style makes people pay attention to the substance that's there. The Model S isn't just pretty, it's also a great car. Contrast that to the Fisker Karma, which wasn't hurting for stylistic expression but just wasn't at the same level in terms of engineering or practicality.

In the case of the Prius, it also wasn't just a matter of styling -- the Prius was also roomier and more fuel-efficient than the Civic. That was the case even in the unstylish first generation. Meanwhile the first Insight was the most eye-catching hybrid of all, but it lacked practicality.

[AutobahnSHO]

Meanwhile the first Insight was the most eye-catching hybrid of all, but it lacked practicality.

Interesting, didn't know it wasn't as practical. Honestly I thought it always looked too weird, never liked it.

[ifcar]

Interesting, didn't know it wasn't as practical. Honestly I thought it always looked too weird, never liked it.

It's a two-seater.

[AutobahnSHO]

It's a two-seater.

ahhhh!   So silly, not many buy two seaters anyway.

[Raza]

Teslas are just so sexy bro.  Todger was out because dude got to be inside of a Tesla. DUH

Not to poop ze party but they do make gloves you can operate touch screens with

They do. I actually have a pair. Still, with no tactile component to the operation, you have to take your eyes off the road to use it.

[Soup DeVille]

Maybe, but they more than doubled their volume from 2013 to 2015 and they appear to be on track to more than double their volume between 2014 and 2016. So why would we assume they cannot do it again between 2016 and 2018 (and then again from 2018 to 2020)? History says they can do it. You might not know how they will do it...heck they might not even know how they will do it yet...but their historical performance certainly indicates they will find a way to do it.

They may in fact not be able to do it, but there is no objective indication that such a thing will happen. It is perfectly reasonable to assume they will in fact be able to continue to grow at their current pace. 

Well, it doesn't work that way though, does it? Nobody can grow by 200% year after year. Companies show huge growth sometimes to match a market, but to assume they'll continue doing so belies common sense.

[Soup DeVille]

Interesting, didn't know it wasn't as practical. Honestly I thought it always looked too weird, never liked it.

I still want one.

Of course  I also want to drop a hot rod B-series motor into it and remove the electrics, just to have a 1700 lb rat racer, but I do want one.

[AutobahnSHO]

I still want one.

Of course  I also want to drop a hot rod B-series motor into it and remove the electrics, just to have a 1700 lb rat racer, but I do want one.

I think CRZ would look better for that.

[Soup DeVille]

I think CRZ would look better for that.

Maybe.

[SJ_GTI]

Well, it doesn't work that way though, does it? Nobody can grow by 200% year after year. Companies show huge growth sometimes to match a market, but to assume they'll continue doing so belies common sense.

What you are talking about is lack of demand.

But in Tesla's case the demand is pretty evident, at least in the short term. Apart from that, I am not talking 200% growth per year, more like 50% growth per year (still a lot I know). I am also only talking about doing it for a few more year, until they get to around 500k units per year, which in the grand scheme of auto manufacturers is still actually pretty small. I think starting a whole new factory will be more difficult for them then just filling up the capacity at their current factory.

[Raza]

I think CRZ would look better for that.

I really liked the CRZ until I found out it was a two-seater.  It would only ever be a commuter car for me, which wouldn't make sense as a two-seater, since I already have a sports car, which is by definition a two-seater.  Even as a 2+2, it would be a hard sell as a daily driver, but it would be a step above a two-seater.  FWD, great gas mileage, 6MT; the CRZ is a strong commuter car on paper.  But the seats are a killer. 

[93JC]

I had no idea the CR-Z was a two-seater. I mean, I must have at some point because I've actually been inside one, but I either didn't notice or just forgot. I could have sworn it was a 2+2. It turns out it actually is a 2+2 outside of North America: for some godforsaken reason they yanked the back seats out of the North American version of the car.

N.A.:


R.O.W.:

[Raza]

I had no idea the CR-Z was a two-seater. I mean, I must have at some point because I've actually been inside one, but I either didn't notice or just forgot. I could have sworn it was a 2+2. It turns out it actually is a 2+2 outside of North America: for some godforsaken reason they yanked the back seats out of the North American version of the car.

N.A.:


R.O.W.:

Yeah, I actually knew that.  What a weird decision. 

[giant_mtb]

Safety reg reasons?  Headroom reasons?  Weird.

[Soup DeVille]

What you are talking about is lack of demand.

But in Tesla's case the demand is pretty evident, at least in the short term. Apart from that, I am not talking 200% growth per year, more like 50% growth per year (still a lot I know). I am also only talking about doing it for a few more year, until they get to around 500k units per year, which in the grand scheme of auto manufacturers is still actually pretty small. I think starting a whole new factory will be more difficult for them then just filling up the capacity at their current factory.

No, im talking about exponential growth, which isn't sustainable year after year.  Anyways, you're not looking at just Tesla growing; but Their supply chain as well, which they are already starting to have real difficulties with. Having a banner year or two is one thing; but from here on out the outlook needs to be more long term.

[Soup DeVille]

Safety reg reasons?  Headroom reasons?  Weird.

They knew about the compact Honda buyers need for massive bass, and made room.

[2o6]

It was safety reasons.

[SJ_GTI]

No, im talking about exponential growth, which isn't sustainable year after year.  Anyways, you're not looking at just Tesla growing; but Their supply chain as well, which they are already starting to have real difficulties with. Having a banner year or two is one thing; but from here on out the outlook needs to be more long term.

Again, they have been doing it. Not only growing a lot, but the rate of growth actually increasing.

Will it fall off sometime? Sure. But at their current rate they only need to do it for another couple years. I mean, just keep doing it this year with the current cars, and then add one more production like for the Model three. I am not talking 10 years of growing at this rate after all. Either way we will see what happens pretty soon.

[BimmerM3]

Guys... I'm pretty sure everyone who is putting their name down for a Model 3 realizes that it's going to take awhile to take delivery. That's why they're putting the deposit down now - so they don't have to wait even longer.

[Char]

Save for straight line speed, they seem like epic pieces of shit to me.

[MexicoCityM3]

Electrics are fantastic for "regular" driving in my experience. Not good yet on a mountain road or, of course, on a track.

I however, can't fathom waiting 3 years for this thing. I am 99% sure the Germans by then will have excellent alternatives.

[CaminoRacer]

Electrics are fantastic for "regular" driving in my experience. Not good yet on a mountain road or, of course, on a track.

I however, can't fathom waiting 3 years for this thing. I am 99% sure the Germans by then will have excellent alternatives.

+1

One of the problems of big reveals and then a long wait time is that everyone else has time to catch up and the initial excitement dies down.

Tesla is doing a great job of getting people excited for real electric cars and I think GM, BMW, Ford, etc. will be the ones who eventually turn it into a reality for everyone.

[MexicoCityM3]

+1

One of the problems of big reveals and then a long wait time is that everyone else has time to catch up and the initial excitement dies down.

Tesla is doing a great job of getting people excited for real electric cars and I think GM, BMW, Ford, etc. will be the ones who eventually turn it into a reality for everyone.

BMW announced today a facelifted i3 now with 120mi range. It sure beats the one-year-away Tesla model 3 today. By the time the model 3 starts arriving in volume it is very likely that competitive alternatives will exist. With Tesla's track record of delays, we're looking at mid to late 2017 for any volume - with most reservations being filled in 2018 and beyond. I am not sure that they announcing their huge reservation numbers was that smart. Good for the stock price today but also a huge free market research exercise & data for very capable competitors.

http://www.bmwblog.com/2016/05/01/world-premiere-2017-bmw-i3-debuts-higher-density-battery/

[ifcar]

Well, if the Model 3 is anything like the Model S, Tesla has used its low center of gravity to make a car that's fun to drive in addition to its electric abilities. The i3 is just a neat economy car in comparison.

[MexicoCityM3]

Well, if the Model 3 is anything like the Model S, Tesla has used its low center of gravity to make a car that's fun to drive in addition to its electric abilities. The i3 is just a neat economy car in comparison.

I am not saying the i3 is competitive with the Model 3. Just that it is here today and the improvements on it signal that something really competitive with the Model 3 will probably be a reality from other players before most of those reservations are filled.

For what it's worth, I think the i3 was pretty fun to drive.