Tesla

[r0tor]

Hah... Who would have thought a Tesla short's info was crap

[MrH]

That's a 2019.  The guy said his was a 2018.  But that individual case is not the crux of the argument.

The agreement between Carvana and Tesla is that Carvana takes the vehicles off lease from Tesla.  Tesla guarantees the residual, so the risk is all on Tesla is residuals take a giant dump.  They made an adjustment for this in 2019 and had to take a hit financially to their inventory value based on this decrease in residual value.

That screenshot is just an anecdote that Carvana has a ton of glut of used Tesla inventory.  If used car values drop substantially (which they have), Tesla is the one stuck holding the bag.  The issue is, they haven't made an adjustment to their 2020 inventory on the books at this artificially high residual.  There are a lot of reasons for this:  1.  it looks terrible on the books.  They are taking the most aggressive accounting stance on everything they can.  2.  They borrow against that inventory.  Writing it down causes issues.  It's the same reason why they are hell bent on starting production.  Inventory is needed for their line of credit.

[r0tor]

This sounds like a Trump argument... It's real and all info to the contrary is fake and you just need to believe it

[MrH]

[Morris Minor]

I know this is a bit milquetoast but, for now hybrids are a good middle ground if your goal is to cut CO2 numbers.

If you want to be a both a saint and sinner: an EV crossover for around town, and a BMW sedan of some sort for long distance journeys.

[Laconian]

Hybrids cut consumption, but they have all the usual wear and tear of fluids and friction of ICE cars, plus an electric drivetrain on top of all that. It's a miracle that Toyota makes Priuses as reliable as they are, because it seems like it's just piling more exposure to failures.

The simplicity of an EV drivetrain is very appealing to me.

[FoMoJo]

Hybrids cut consumption, but they have all the usual wear and tear of fluids and friction of ICE cars, plus an electric drivetrain on top of all that. It's a miracle that Toyota makes Priuses as reliable as they are, because it seems like it's just piling more exposure to failures.

The simplicity of an EV drivetrain is very appealing to me.

It seems that they could/should be quite cheaper to make...and to buy.

[MX793]

It seems that they could/should be quite cheaper to make...and to buy.

As far as power train goes, the batteries and power converters are where the cost really is.

[Soup DeVille]

It seems that they could/should be quite cheaper to make...and to buy.

The battery is a substantial part of the cost. BEVs obviously need bigger ones.

[shp4man]

Hybrids are expensive to repair, and break differently than ICE cars. So some repair people don't really have a clue. The combination of those two things can get really expensive. Seen it happen.

[CaminoRacer]

Hybrids cut consumption, but they have all the usual wear and tear of fluids and friction of ICE cars, plus an electric drivetrain on top of all that. It's a miracle that Toyota makes Priuses as reliable as they are, because it seems like it's just piling more exposure to failures.

The simplicity of an EV drivetrain is very appealing to me.

EV maintenance schedules are hilarious. Rotate the tires every 7,500 miles and change the cabin air filter every 15k. That's it.

[2o6]

That's a 2019.  The guy said his was a 2018.  But that individual case is not the crux of the argument.

The agreement between Carvana and Tesla is that Carvana takes the vehicles off lease from Tesla.  Tesla guarantees the residual, so the risk is all on Tesla is residuals take a giant dump.  They made an adjustment for this in 2019 and had to take a hit financially to their inventory value based on this decrease in residual value.

That screenshot is just an anecdote that Carvana has a ton of glut of used Tesla inventory.  If used car values drop substantially (which they have), Tesla is the one stuck holding the bag.  The issue is, they haven't made an adjustment to their 2020 inventory on the books at this artificially high residual.  There are a lot of reasons for this:  1.  it looks terrible on the books.  They are taking the most aggressive accounting stance on everything they can.  2.  They borrow against that inventory.  Writing it down causes issues.  It's the same reason why they are hell bent on starting production.  Inventory is needed for their line of credit.

I get what you're saying, but that $7200 value screenshot sounds fishy.

[MrH]

Here are more details on what many think is going on with Carvana. Carvana giving a different price for when you request a price for a hypothetical Model 3 vs putting in your VIN would not surprise me. Haven't tried it with an actual VIN to check yet. Might try it today.

Keep in mind, Carvana's CEO is a convicted felon, committed fraud back in the 90s with a bank that was going under.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1260773188457226240.html

[Rich]

Carvana giving a different price for when you request a price for a hypothetical Model 3 vs putting in your VIN would not surprise me. Haven't tried it with an actual VIN to check yet.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1260773188457226240.html

This is what I got by putting in my VIN for a 2019 Model 3 LR AWD.

[MrH]

I just took a used model 3 off autotrader. Got an estimate to sell to Carvana first. Then input the VIN and did the same exact thing.

Once I input the VIN, I was told they have too much in inventory to outright buy. They would only do trade in. The trade in value was $4k less than the offer to buy was in the estimate without the VIN.

[r0tor]

So what was the value?

[2o6]

"too much inventory" could easily be referring to all cars as related to the pandemic. No one is buying anything.

[Soup DeVille]

"too much inventory" could easily be referring to all cars as related to the pandemic. No one is buying anything.

Yep.

Can't buy anything if the lot is full.

[Morris Minor]

Hybrids cut consumption, but they have all the usual wear and tear of fluids and friction of ICE cars, plus an electric drivetrain on top of all that. It's a miracle that Toyota makes Priuses as reliable as they are, because it seems like it's just piling more exposure to failures.

The simplicity of an EV drivetrain is very appealing to me.

Good point. I was reading something about the recent electrification of one of the main railway lines where I grew up. The diesels, with the engines, generators, traction motors etc were far more complex and costly to maintain than the electrics that have replaced them.

[NomisR]

Good point. I was reading something about the recent electrification of one of the main railway lines where I grew up. The diesels, with the engines, generators, traction motors etc were far more complex and costly to maintain than the electrics that have replaced them.

And electric makes everything modular and really easily replacing, upgrading parts compared to an internal combustion engine too.  Should theoretically last longer because of cheaper and easily replaceable parts, plus software upgrades.

[Morris Minor]

And electric makes everything modular and really easily replacing, upgrading parts compared to an internal combustion engine too.  Should theoretically last longer because of cheaper and easily replaceable parts, plus software upgrades.

It looks like there's a ready market for used batteries. When they get to end-of-life in their vehicles, they're still good for repurposing in Powerwall-type storage purposes in homes & businesses.

I took the Honda in yesterday for a 30,000-mile service (+ a much-needed a center display firmware update). I spent a long time in the waiting area... and was listening to diagnosis findings being relayed to other customers: e.g. there was a messed-up & clogged catalytic converter. But most, like me, were there for routine services: fluids, filters etc. It occurred to me that almost none of the stuff I overheard would have applied had the cars been EVs.

[Laconian]

What are the non-software parts that fail on EVs when the cars do break? I know that software has limitless potential to suck.

[MX793]

What are the non-software parts that fail on EVs when the cars do break? I know that software has limitless potential to suck.

Batteries, motors (including coolant pumps), motor controllers, and power converters/inverters are all potential failure points.

[Laconian]

OK, let me rephrase. Yes, everything can go bad. But what is the part that is most failure prone?

[Soup DeVille]

What are the non-software parts that fail on EVs when the cars do break? I know that software has limitless potential to suck.

The capacitors in power inverters are always a a key failure point in industrial drives, as are the various communication modules ( I assume some flavor of CANbus node in Teslas).

[MX793]

OK, let me rephrase. Yes, everything can go bad. But what is the part that is most failure prone?

Anything that handles high power, and especially any circuit card that handles any kind of power, will see thermal cycling that will fatigue solder joints and eventually lead to failure.

[AutobahnSHO]

Troubleshooting electronics would be a serious pain in the rear unless the diagnostic tools are super awesome. 

[Soup DeVille]

Troubleshooting electronics would be a serious pain in the rear unless the diagnostic tools are super awesome. 

I don't think it needs to be any worse than cars are now; and potentially a lot simpler. Electronic components are going to be pull-and-replace almost always.

[MX793]

I don't think it needs to be any worse than cars are now; and potentially a lot simpler. Electronic components are going to be pull-and-replace almost always.

Yes, but identifying which component is the problem can frequently be a challenge, particularly if OBD aren't robust.  We constantly struggle with diagnostics on some of the motorized systems on some of our products because we didn't build in robust diagnostics.  Something stops working and the first question is "did the motor fail or the controller?"  So then it's a game of swap-tronics to figure out whether it's a bad motor or controller.  And to make matters worse, on one of our products we discovered that certain kinds of controller failures can fry the motor, so if somebody tries replacing the motor first when the controller is actually the thing that failed, that motor then is fried.  And since replacing the motor didn't work, they replace the controller and the thing still doesn't work because the new motor was just fried by the previous controller.  Then people spend a bunch of time trying to trouble-shoot cables...

[MrH]

OK, let me rephrase. Yes, everything can go bad. But what is the part that is most failure prone?

Are we talking about Teslas specifically or electric cars in general?  Two very different answers.