Tesla

[Morris Minor]

The the same-day-announced senior level departures signal something uncomfortable is going on. The periodic decimation of worker bees is more normal - I've been through a few of those.

Drew Baglino is a big loss IMO.

[CaminoRacer]

Doubling down on self driving is stupid. Robotaxi is just another sham

[MrH]

[GoCougs]

The the same-day-announced senior level departures signal something uncomfortable is going on. The periodic decimation of worker bees is more normal - I've been through a few of those.

Drew Baglino is a big loss IMO.

In the least Tesla is getting out in front of the EV sales slowdown and may well be expecting a sales crash.

[MrH]

Expecting?  It's already happening.  They cut prices to the bone to try to keep the growth narrative alive, and it still died.

[CaminoRacer]

Their lack of product development is going to be a big issue. The Cybertruck was a huge misstep, and focusing on a Robotaxi instead of a Model 2 will be another misstep. They need more trucks & crossovers and less Elon influence. The Cybertruck could have been killer but they went full-stupid on a fake "exoskeleton" and it was too late to launch and underdelivered all promises. A more conventional truck would have seen way fewer cancelled orders and fewer production issues.

[Morris Minor]

Elon once said that, in retrospect, the Model X was an exercise in hubris. I think the Cybertruck is a repeat of that. 
But I'm guessing some of the underlying tech will find its way into the mainstream.

At least, unlike the legacy makers, Tesla is not ceding the battlefield by greenwashing... putting electric motors with vibrator-sized batteries in ICE cars.

[MrH]

Their lack of product development is going to be a big issue. The Cybertruck was a huge misstep, and focusing on a Robotaxi instead of a Model 2 will be another misstep. They need more trucks & crossovers and less Elon influence. The Cybertruck could have been killer but they went full-stupid on a fake "exoskeleton" and it was too late to launch and underdelivered all promises. A more conventional truck would have seen way fewer cancelled orders and fewer production issues.

The reality is: the car business is not lucrative.  It's an absolute meat grinder of efficiency, squeezing pennies out of every process imaginable.  Tesla can't compete with the Toyotas of the world when it comes to lean manufacturing.  They can't even work on more than one car at a time.  The established OEMs launch multiple new models every single year.  Elon whines non-stop about "manufacturing hell".  That's the entire business!

You don't get crazy valuations be just being a competitive automotive OEM.  Without the fraud and hype, it's just a regular car company, and not a good one at that.  If you place it with the same multiples of all the others, the stock price collapses.

Tesla will go down as the most ridiculous thing of the ZIRP era.  Everyone believed in a carnival barker who defrauded his way to a massive bubble.  He is another Sam Bankman-Fried.  Elon is the dumb person's idea of what smart people are like.

[GoCougs]

Expecting?  It's already happening.  They cut prices to the bone to try to keep the growth narrative alive, and it still died.

Not just Tesla's own sales volume - Tesla is expecting (IMO) the whole of the EV market to nosedive (and it might be the whole of the auto market).

[Morris Minor]

Metcalfe in a base Model 3.

[565]

https://youtu.be/5xj0R4MyDhE?si=mQsFGTYAHeVQ3Ntp

Sounds like the Model 3 performance is amazing based on his test drive.

Honestly at 52.5K I agree with him that it is absolutely the obvious choice to buy for a sports sedan.  It even qualifies for the 7.5k rebate so if you qualify you are looking at like 46k.  That's almost half the price of a well equip M3 competition.

46k for a 5 passenger sedan that does 0-60 in 2.9 without fussy to engage launch control (wife's X3M comp has the same drivetrain and launch control as the M3 comp, it's not realistic to use on a regular basis), supposedly rides better than a CT4 V blackwing, and now handles well too.

[Rich]

Do itt

[Morris Minor]

A friend of mine just got a refreshed Model 3 LR and loves it. IIRC he took the deal to transfer FSD from his 2018. Loves that too.

[r0tor]

https://youtu.be/5xj0R4MyDhE?si=mQsFGTYAHeVQ3Ntp

Sounds like the Model 3 performance is amazing based on his test drive.

Honestly at 52.5K I agree with him that it is absolutely the obvious choice to buy for a sports sedan.  It even qualifies for the 7.5k rebate so if you qualify you are looking at like 46k.  That's almost half the price of a well equip M3 competition.

46k for a 5 passenger sedan that does 0-60 in 2.9 without fussy to engage launch control (wife's X3M comp has the same drivetrain and launch control as the M3 comp, it's not realistic to use on a regular basis), supposedly rides better than a CT4 V blackwing, and now handles well too.

Honestly Tesla just made playing in the performance sedan segment nearly impossible with this....

Well at least if you value speed and value over chassis refinement/weight/emotion/buttons

[GoCougs]

"Cheetah" launch control is 1000x more drama than the typical performance ICE launch control - it can take (many) minutes to engage. Not sure if this new version of the Model 3 gets it though. Plus, you're only going to get 2-3 minutes of performance driving before any EV throttles back to protect the motors and battery. TBF, that's more duration than what most people use, but overall this new Model 3 is not equivalent to a legit sports sedan like the M3. Still more a parlor trick with ergo that is a 100% deal breaker.

[r0tor]

True, but what else do you buy at <$50?

Any other sporty sedan at that price range will have a turbo 4 and not be any more track worthy.

[565]

"Cheetah" launch control is 1000x more drama than the typical performance ICE launch control - it can take (many) minutes to engage. Not sure if this new version of the Model 3 gets it though. Plus, you're only going to get 2-3 minutes of performance driving before any EV throttles back to protect the motors and battery. TBF, that's more duration than what most people use, but overall this new Model 3 is not equivalent to a legit sports sedan like the M3. Still more a parlor trick with ergo that is a 100% deal breaker.

No cheetah mode or anything on the Y or 3.  You don't even need to press the brake to brake torque. Best results are from just flooring the pedal.  I've done it repeatedly on the Y and never noticed any reduction for cooling in my driving.

The X3M is just the opposite.  You have to put the AWD system to MDM to sport, everything on the harshest setting and the transmission to manual fastest setting.  You have to try to push the brake pedal through the firewall or else the motor will overwhelm the brakes.  The system needs a few seconds to build boost, and will only hold it for a few seconds so it is just about impossible to time for a spotlight.  If you even get it a little bit wrong the system doesn't count it as a real launch control.  Only in launch control mode does the transmission shift automatically while in a manual setting, so if you don't get it then you will bounce into the rev limiter in first. Afterwards launch control will be unavailable for about 2 minutes for cool down.  First time I used it it took me about 3 tries to actually make it happen. 

The Y is so much more real world fast than the X3m that it's not even funny. 

[r0tor]

Yea, I've had issues with the BMW launch control function at BMW events... You can almost never get it to work when you want it to

[GoCougs]

No cheetah mode or anything on the Y or 3.  You don't even need to press the brake to brake torque. Best results are from just flooring the pedal.  I've done it repeatedly on the Y and never noticed any reduction for cooling in my driving.

The X3M is just the opposite.  You have to put the AWD system to MDM to sport, everything on the harshest setting and the transmission to manual fastest setting.  You have to try to push the brake pedal through the firewall or else the motor will overwhelm the brakes.  The system needs a few seconds to build boost, and will only hold it for a few seconds so it is just about impossible to time for a spotlight.  If you even get it a little bit wrong the system doesn't count it as a real launch control.  Only in launch control mode does the transmission shift automatically while in a manual setting, so if you don't get it then you will bounce into the rev limiter in first. Afterwards launch control will be unavailable for about 2 minutes for cool down.  First time I used it it took me about 3 tries to actually make it happen. 

The Y is so much more real world fast than the X3m that it's not even funny. 

No Cheetah Mode on the current Y or 3, but what of this new 3? Tesla touting the 1.9s 0-60 for the Plaid turns at afterward required the use of said (and even more real world useless) Cheetah Mode launch control. It's not been mentioned AFAIK but whatevers.

Audi's launch control is better but still some work. The aftermarket has answered with a ZF8 tune that allows for the selection of brake torque RPM (for my setup = 3,500 RPM) and then torque limitation in 1st gear. Lets a full weight stage 1 91 octane SQ5 hit 0-60 in a legit 3.8-3.9 s with determinism and repeatability. I imagine BMW tuners have done the same.

On my road trips, loaded up with 400-500 lbs of stuff, I can average 100-110 mph in the heat (up to 90F) at elevation (up to 9000') sometimes on a mountain pass grade, out in the middle of nowhere, for as long as 18.5 gallons will allow (~45-60 minutes). Never a problem. An EV wouldn't last 5 minutes. Granted, I only do that a few times a year but it matters to me.

[ChrisV]

On my road trips, loaded up with 400-500 lbs of stuff, I can average 100-110 mph in the heat (up to 90F) at elevation (up to 9000') sometimes on a mountain pass grade, out in the middle of nowhere, for as long as 18.5 gallons will allow (~45-60 minutes). Never a problem. An EV wouldn't last 5 minutes. Granted, I only do that a few times a year but it matters to me.

Yeah, because you do something completely stupid a few times a year, EVs are dumb and don't work for anyone.

Fuck off Cougs. I'm tired of your ignorance and complete lack of experience masquerading as important insight.

[Morris Minor]

Hey watch the personal attacks. I'm on the side that the world is better for Tesla, SpaceX, X & Musk but the 'SPIN has suffered from venting on others who have opposite views on this and lots of other subjects.

[Rich]

Leased a base Model 3 for the commute and chilly weather adventures with the lady. 

From the outside looking in, it doesn't seem like a bad deal.  I really don't like Elon, but $3k down and $320 a month for 3 years and 36k miles of use doesn't seem bad for 6 sec to 60, RWD, quiet, comfortable ride.

It should come sometime next week.  I'll report back after a while of use.

ps. ordering a car via the Tesla app is so bananas easy.  I will never step into a dealership after that.  Ever.

I hope the Rivian R3 will be out when this lease is up.  If I enjoy the electric experience, it looks fun.

I did see a lease deal for the Toyota Bz4XWTFBBQ at $179 a month and $2k (?) down.  But it looks like that was a California-only deal.  it'd have been $300 a month here in NY.

[AutobahnSHO]

Toyota Bz4XWTFBBQ

[565]

Leased a base Model 3 for the commute and chilly weather adventures with the lady. 

From the outside looking in, it doesn't seem like a bad deal.  I really don't like Elon, but $3k down and $320 a month for 3 years and 36k miles of use doesn't seem bad for 6 sec to 60, RWD, quiet, comfortable ride.

It should come sometime next week.  I'll report back after a while of use.

ps. ordering a car via the Tesla app is so bananas easy.  I will never step into a dealership after that.  Ever.

I hope the Rivian R3 will be out when this lease is up.  If I enjoy the electric experience, it looks fun.

I did see a lease deal for the Toyota Bz4XWTFBBQ at $179 a month and $2k (?) down.  But it looks like that was a California-only deal.  it'd have been $300 a month here in NY.

Nice!  You definitely won't regret it.

I really wasn't a Musk or Tesla fan but I needed a winter AWD car in Jan of 2023 on short notice and the Model Y just had a huge price drop. Anything else remotely fun was much more expensive or had a long wait. I had a GR Corolla on order that was nowhere in sight.

Compared to the painful allocation searching I did for the X3M and Blackwing, the Tesla website purchase was insanely easy.

The car really has exceeded all expectations and now I'm a Tesla fan, and understand why the cars have such a rabid fan base.

The cars have so much extra usable space between the frunk and the under trunk compartment.  The wireless charging pads are placed perfectly and there are two of them. The supercharging experience is seamless and the user interface is polished.  The tech is great, you will love the autopark feature (included in FSD trial) and the Tesla Vision function that renders your surroundings in 3D without the distortion of 360 cameras.

When the GR Corolla order finally came, I drove the Tesla to test drive it to see if I should dump the Tesla for the GR.  I didn't buy the GR.

The Tesla was meant to be the winter car but Tesla season has just been getting longer and longer and other cars season has been getting shorter and shorter.  The X3M we've had since Feb 2022 and it has 16k miles, the Blackwing we've had since April 2022 and it has 14.5k miles, the Model Y we've had since Jan 2023 and it just passed 20k miles.

The Tesla experience is much better from the inside looking out than the outside looking in.

[Rich]

Thanks for the good words.  How's the service been? I've heard that the mobile service can be hit or miss.  I'm lucky that I'll have a service center 2.4 miles from work. 

One interesting thing I've learned is that the $7.5k federal credit that applies only to certain cars, if purchased, will apply to almost any lease because all fleet vehicles were included in the bill.

[GoCougs]

Yeah, because you do something completely stupid a few times a year, EVs are dumb and don't work for anyone.

Fuck off Cougs. I'm tired of your ignorance and complete lack of experience masquerading as important insight.

Here's something (not) new from ChrisV: a low status emotional outburst in the face of struggling with the subject matter. Seriously, doesn't it ever get old?

[Morris Minor]

[snip]
ps. ordering a car via the Tesla app is so bananas easy.  I will never step into a dealership after that.  Ever.
[/snip]

Same here - I absolutely loathe dealers. You've touched on a subject that gets me riled up and foaming at the mouth: the dealership racket that uses state legislatures to outlaw competition and direct sales. EG No possibility of going to Costco.com specifying the exact Toyota you want, generating the build order, and having it delivered to Costco or to you a few weeks later. Banned. Can't do that direct with Toyota either,
There's whole article about it:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture

Maybe we should organise a  Tesla/EV/Hybrid themed spin get-together, "Spinsla Meet '24." Anniversary of Dave Van Vlack's death is April 27. So weave the honoring of him into the proceedings.

I really really miss him - super nice guy

[565]

Thanks for the good words.  How's the service been? I've heard that the mobile service can be hit or miss.  I'm lucky that I'll have a service center 2.4 miles from work. 

One interesting thing I've learned is that the $7.5k federal credit that applies only to certain cars, if purchased, will apply to almost any lease because all fleet vehicles were included in the bill.

I had one major service when my dad had the Tesla (he drives it a bit during it's "off season").  He started an over the air update and then tried to drive off, which is a big no no.  Anyway, the update stalled halfway and bricked the car.  Mobile tech came right away but couldn't fix it, Tesla towed it to the service center to push the update manually. This was late afternoon Friday so we got a loaner Model X.  We were told the car wouldn't be ready till Monday so we planned a road trip with the Model X just to test it out and have fun with it. The car was actually ready to get picked up on Saturday morning but since we were out of town with the Model X loaner they let us pick the car up on Monday.

The only other time I went to the service center was to pick up my winter tires I ordered from Tesla and they installed them too.

While we had the Model X, I had such a good time with it that I was heavily considering getting a Model X Plaid to replace the Model Y because they just dropped the price to 90k and all colors were free.  I loved the falcon doors because they made putting the baby into the car seat super easy and were super cool, there was more space, adjustable ride height, the windshield went all the way behind your head that made for breathtaking views drivng around the Hudson Valley during our road trip, and I liked the idea of a mini van that trapped 146mph in the quarter mile.  However all the tech in the car scared me a little and I came to my senses.  One of my anesthesia colleagues has the Plaid X and he loves it though.

[CaminoRacer]

The ease of buying a Tesla online has almost convinced me a couple of times.

[r0tor]

Lol... I gave up after contacting 2 different dealer various times over 2 months to try and get basic lease information like residual value and money factor.

It's sickening and don't have the time or patience to walk into the dealership and play games for a few hours.