Tesla

[Morris Minor]

It stands a better chance with regulators in the US than in the EU. The Europeans are regulating themselves out of existence.

[giant_mtb]

FSD is for city dwellers and that's it.

[MrH]

At this point, GM or Ford should just buy Tesla's car division and Elon can focus on his FSD robotaxi bullshit because he clearly doesn't care about making physical cars anymore

How or why would GM or Ford buy Tesla?  GM and Ford both have a market cap around $50B.  Tesla is $550B+.  It's over ten times the valuation of GM or Ford.  Never mind the endless liability nightmares involved with "FSD" with multiple deaths and countless accidents.

Only chance for an acquisition is after bankruptcy.

[MrH]

I think Musk realizes he cannot and will never be able to compete with Chinese EV auto manufacturers in China (which is the largest market in the world for EV) and elsewhere in the world the outlook for continued expansion of EV market share is not great. He has slashed pricing and profit per Tesla vehicle has significantly decreased but despite this, sales are decreasing.

So he has switched his focus to full self driving where Tesla has a significant lead over everyone else.  If his robotaxi comes to successful fruition it may be a brilliant move but I don't think it will, especially in a highly regulatory U.S. and Western Europe environment. It just takes one fatality or severe injury to shut the whole thing down.

Fact check: They do not, in fact, have a lead over anybody.  Waymo has done millions of miles of autonomous driving.  Tesla has done zero.

[CaminoRacer]

How or why would GM or Ford buy Tesla?  GM and Ford both have a market cap around $50B.  Tesla is $550B+.  It's over ten times the valuation of GM or Ford.  Never mind the endless liability nightmares involved with "FSD" with multiple deaths and countless accidents.

Only chance for an acquisition is after bankruptcy.

Well yeah, but Tesla's real market cap for their manufacturing capabilities and car sales is really much lower than that. $550B is the fake number based on the FSD & robotaxi illusions.

I wouldn't envision a sale happening until things start to crash back down the reality anyway, either bankruptcy or investors finally opening their eyes to the ridiculous valuation.

[veeman]

Fact check: They do not, in fact, have a lead over anybody.  Waymo has done millions of miles of autonomous driving.  Tesla has done zero.

OK.  Perhaps Musk thinks he can beat Waymo because a Waymo technology equipped car costs a whole lot more than a Tesla car with FSD.  If he can get his FSD to be truly driverless, as a robotaxi he would be able to signficantly undercut Waymo in price for a ride. 

 

[SJ_GTI]

I wouldn't expect Tesla shareholders to do anything rational. They are about to award 10% of their current stock holdings to Elon. An amount that is more than all the profit the company has made in its existence to date.

Logically the second they pass such a package the value of each Tesla stock should drop proportional to the amount they just awarded him, but I suspect it won't, which shows how irrational it is.

[GoCougs]

Fact check: They do not, in fact, have a lead over anybody.  Waymo has done millions of miles of autonomous driving.  Tesla has done zero.

Tesla has the lead in the perception of autonomous driving.

Waymo has millions of miles of mapped driving, and after ~10 years it still requires mapping and vehicles that are prohibitively expensive. TBF, that as close it'll get, so in that Waymo is Doing it Right.

[GoCougs]

I wouldn't expect Tesla shareholders to do anything rational. They are about to award 10% of their current stock holdings to Elon. An amount that is more than all the profit the company has made in its existence to date.

Logically the second they pass such a package the value of each Tesla stock should drop proportional to the amount they just awarded him, but I suspect it won't, which shows how irrational it is.

Shareholders know that No Musk = Tesla market cap gets in line with other automakers (= 99% stock price collapse), and that's best case.

[CaminoRacer]

Shareholders know that No Musk = Tesla market cap gets in line with other automakers (= 99% stock price collapse), and that's best case.

An impossible situation at this point.

[MrH]

OK.  Perhaps Musk thinks he can beat Waymo because a Waymo technology equipped car costs a whole lot more than a Tesla car with FSD.  If he can get his FSD to be truly driverless, as a robotaxi he would be able to signficantly undercut Waymo in price for a ride. 

 

It's not possible.  I'm not sure why you keep talking like it is.

Tesla has the worst auto windshield wipers out there, by far.  They're camera based.  They haven't been able to get it to work since it was introduced with the Model S.  If their camera based system can't figure out whether it's raining or not, in the last 8 years, how can you possibly think it will figure out driving to go millions of miles without an intervention?

This is all so dumb.

[veeman]

It's not possible.  I'm not sure why you keep talking like it is.

Tesla has the worst auto windshield wipers out there, by far.  They're camera based.  They haven't been able to get it to work since it was introduced with the Model S.  If their camera based system can't figure out whether it's raining or not, in the last 8 years, how can you possibly think it will figure out driving to go millions of miles without an intervention?

This is all so dumb.

What have I said that indicates I think Tesla's robotaxi will be a success? 

[MrH]

What have I said that indicates I think Tesla's robotaxi will be a success? 

OK.  Perhaps Musk thinks he can beat Waymo because a Waymo technology equipped car costs a whole lot more than a Tesla car with FSD. If he can get his FSD to be truly driverless, as a robotaxi he would be able to signficantly undercut Waymo in price for a ride. 

 

There is no "if".  It's not a possibility.

[veeman]

There is no "if".  It's not a possibility.

"So he has switched his focus to full self driving where Tesla has a significant lead over everyone else.  If his robotaxi comes to successful fruition it may be a brilliant move but I don't think it will, especially in a highly regulatory U.S. and Western Europe environment. It just takes one fatality or severe injury to shut the whole thing down."

I think that's pretty clear I don't think Tesla's robotaxi will be a success.

[GoCougs]

Just a general FYI ITT: Waymo's attempt of commercialization of "autonomous" (mapped) driving has been a failure. Turns out, reimagining the taxi industry to such an extent was a colossally bad business decision.

[565]

Everything is impossible until someone goes and does it.

People with a shit ton more experience with automotive engineering and autonomous driving than anyone on this forum certainly think it is possible and profitable or else they would not be wasting their careers working on it.

Tesla risking it all to do something innovative is exactly in character with the company and the cornerstone of how they went from nothing in 2008 to the most valuable car company today (some automakers still had models barely warmed over from pre2008 until recently). Tesla went from making a handful of electric lotus elises in 2008 to producing the best selling vehicle of 2023. Tesla launched a direct to consumer sales model when many said it couldn't be done. They single handedly created a charging network that works while the rest of the industry was a dumpster fire.  Their single large screen automotive interior design is rapidly being copied by the rest of the industry. However they got there by taking huge risks.  They abandoned their successful niche sports car market to make the Model S, and then they risked it all again to make the Model 3 which almost bankrupted the company.  Either way they kicked off the EV revolution, you'd have to be delusional to think that EVs would be where they are without Tesla.  Prior to Tesla, every modern EV was some super eco shitbox or oddity.

Objectively speaking the Tesla story is the most incredible automotive rise in our lifetimes.

They are risking it again now on autonomous driving.  Sure they might totally fail and go under, or they might actually pull it off and revolutionize the automotive industry again.  Either way they wouldn't be Tesla if they didn't at least try.

[GoCougs]

Everything is impossible until someone goes and does it.

People with a shit ton more experience with automotive engineering and autonomous driving than anyone on this forum certainly think it is possible and profitable or else they would not be wasting their careers working on it.

Tesla risking it all to do something innovative is exactly in character with the company and the cornerstone of how they went from nothing in 2008 to the most valuable car company today (some automakers still had models barely warmed over from pre2008 until recently). Tesla went from making a handful of electric lotus elises in 2008 to producing the best selling vehicle of 2023. Tesla launched a direct to consumer sales model when many said it couldn't be done. They single handedly created a charging network that works while the rest of the industry was a dumpster fire.  Their single large screen automotive interior design is rapidly being copied by the rest of the industry. However they got there by taking huge risks.  They abandoned their successful niche sports car market to make the Model S, and then they risked it all again to make the Model 3 which almost bankrupted the company.  Either way they kicked off the EV revolution, you'd have to be delusional to think that EVs would be where they are without Tesla.  Prior to Tesla, every modern EV was some super eco shitbox or oddity.

Objectively speaking the Tesla story is the most incredible automotive rise in our lifetimes.

They are risking it again now on autonomous driving.  Sure they might totally fail and go under, or they might actually pull it off and revolutionize the automotive industry again.  Either way they wouldn't be Tesla if they didn't at least try.

I have zero experience in either automotive or autonomous driving (aka, AD) but have many years in the exact technologies used in AD for "autonomous" operation of factory automation and robotics - vision, LIDAR, algos, safety, process design, etc. It's been 15 years, and AD hasn't worked, AD doesn't work, and there is no known path by which AD will ever work. These are facts that I welcome others to challenge. The AD "investment" continues because Tesla, Google, Cruise, Zoox and Apple have astronomical market capitalizations a goodly portion of which is due to WtP rewarding them for chasing The Next Big Thing.

Tesla gets away with its Funny Business because of its laughable market valuation (about equal to ALL notable established automakers combined - GM + Ford + Toyota + Honda + VWAG + etc.). If Tesla had a market valuation in line with other automakers, it literally would have ceased to exist many moons ago. But WtP need to be chasin'! As the EV market continues its decline and AD divestment continues, we'll see how long WtP will put up with the chase. My bet is there's a bit of steam left in it yet however.

[GoCougs]

I will say, the one boondoggle bigger than AD is humanoid robots (another fraud Tesla is into)!

[giant_mtb]

I will say, the one boondoggle bigger than AD is humanoid robots (another fraud Tesla is into)!

I'm so tired of Elon. He's the epitome of starting with a paperclip and somehow trading it up to a Ferrari. Nothing his companies accomplish is his doing. He's a project manager at best, hence his consistent MO of over-promising and under-delivering.

I get why people support it, hype and futurism is fun, but I also don't get why some of those same people can't/don't take a critical look.

[Laconian]

All of Tesla just got fired. LOL

[giant_mtb]

All of Tesla just got fired. LOL

Nah, man. Company's fine. Just slimming down as production efficiency increased by 1,000%.

[AutobahnSHO]

Nah, man. Company's fine. Just slimming down as production efficiency increased by 1,000%.

[MrH]

Everything is impossible until someone goes and does it.

People with a shit ton more experience with automotive engineering and autonomous driving than anyone on this forum certainly think it is possible and profitable or else they would not be wasting their careers working on it.

Tesla risking it all to do something innovative is exactly in character with the company and the cornerstone of how they went from nothing in 2008 to the most valuable car company today (some automakers still had models barely warmed over from pre2008 until recently). Tesla went from making a handful of electric lotus elises in 2008 to producing the best selling vehicle of 2023. Tesla launched a direct to consumer sales model when many said it couldn't be done. They single handedly created a charging network that works while the rest of the industry was a dumpster fire.  Their single large screen automotive interior design is rapidly being copied by the rest of the industry. However they got there by taking huge risks.  They abandoned their successful niche sports car market to make the Model S, and then they risked it all again to make the Model 3 which almost bankrupted the company.  Either way they kicked off the EV revolution, you'd have to be delusional to think that EVs would be where they are without Tesla.  Prior to Tesla, every modern EV was some super eco shitbox or oddity.

Objectively speaking the Tesla story is the most incredible automotive rise in our lifetimes.

They are risking it again now on autonomous driving.  Sure they might totally fail and go under, or they might actually pull it off and revolutionize the automotive industry again.  Either way they wouldn't be Tesla if they didn't at least try.

The story is incredible, that's for sure.  It's rife with fraud, and without it, none of what they accomplished would be possible.  The ends don't justify the means.  Did they engineer some incredible stuff and push the boundaries?  Definitely.  But their competitive advantage has always been risk tolerance.  It's been good to have more of that in the industry, but not at the cost.

One day, Elon will step into your domain, and say something so incredibly idiotic, you'll realize this has been a ruse since day 1.

[Morris Minor]

I have zero experience in either automotive or autonomous driving (aka, AD) but have many years in the exact technologies used in AD for "autonomous" operation of factory automation and robotics - vision, LIDAR, algos, safety, process design, etc. It's been 15 years, and AD hasn't worked, AD doesn't work, and there is no known path by which AD will ever work. These are facts that I welcome others to challenge. The AD "investment" continues because Tesla, Google, Cruise, Zoox and Apple have astronomical market capitalizations a goodly portion of which is due to WtP rewarding them for chasing The Next Big Thing.

Tesla gets away with its Funny Business because of its laughable market valuation (about equal to ALL notable established automakers combined - GM + Ford + Toyota + Honda + VWAG + etc.). If Tesla had a market valuation in line with other automakers, it literally would have ceased to exist many moons ago. But WtP need to be chasin'! As the EV market continues its decline and AD divestment continues, we'll see how long WtP will put up with the chase. My bet is there's a bit of steam left in it yet however.

Comparing Tesla to automakers isn't really very useful IMO.  It's more of a tech play than a metal bending operation. I mean sure, Tesla bends metal too but their hardware is mostly only interesting in demonstrating their early realization that EVs are laptops on wheels.

[Laconian]

Their R&D spend is much lower than other tech companies.

I think they just market themselves as tech in order to justify their ridiculous P/E.

[MrH]

Their R&D spend is much lower than other tech companies.

I think they just market themselves as tech in order to justify their ridiculous P/E.

95% of their revenue is from car sales.  They're a car company.  They want the ridiculous P/E of a tech company, but don't have any of the benefits of being a tech company (tiny COGs, quickly scalable, minimal capex required, etc).

[Laconian]

RIP Gigacasting
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/exclusive-tesla-retreats-next-generation-153236776.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9vbGQucmVkZGl0LmNvbS9yL1JlYWxUZXNsYS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALVcXLqrWixgE9F7Z6pd8-SefbYthV59PO2tTBz-B-X2eMqUgIe-s5aDC4HUShyzOJf7zoPu_0bCsS54MtAyt2oVWHD-FJZdHujuF0gB09-bV2-ZDHUOckPvbvc6_0wvvkDeKsE5APTunKxidUqf1jfKxWIafTP7jIdn7G-7L5xN

[565]

[Morris Minor]

He had to take over, but it's getting there. Interesting listening to the passengers.

[GoCougs]

Tesla now under federal investigation for securities and wire fraud due to AP and AD: https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-elon-musk-autopilot-full-self-driving-doj-fraud-investigation/