Have we reached the SUV tipping point?

[12,000 RPM]

That's not even remotely true.

Your paranoia has prompted you to hallucinate.... here is a health bitch slap dose of reality

https://www.carspin.club/index.php?topic=33908

[Raza]

Your paranoia has prompted you to hallucinate.... here is a health bitch slap dose of reality

https://www.carspin.club/index.php?topic=33908

You're always going on about how automation is going to be so much better than having human beings drive and pay attention to what they're doing.  90% of your posts are about how much better it'll be when autonomous cars take over and complaining about people who don't agree with you, blowing their responses out of proportion (as is your typical fashion with these things, it seems).  You shield yourself with this fantasy that autonomous cars are going to take over and that you're still going to be able to ride your motorcycle, the lone person left on the road that isn't sitting in a rolling computer. 

And even your link shows an acceptance than manual driving will come to an end, even if it will take a few decades.  It's clear.  Don't get upset at me for accepting that and not being happy about it.

[12,000 RPM]

*complains about me blowing other viewpoints out of proportion*
*blows mine out of proportion and lies about the points made in a link I posted*

Autonomous ubiquity <> the end of manual driving. We have got verbal conformation from the people in charge of these programs that killing manual driving is not an option. We know that there is still a lot of money in manual driving as well. But hyperbole and paranoia over autonomous cars, no matter how absurd and steeped in "slippery slope" fallacies you are willing to be, are your comfort blankie.

[Soup DeVille]

The people who think they're in charge are rarely the people in charge. Once autonomous cars become mainstream, insurance, economic and legal factors will soon make manual cars a rare plaything for the rich.

Good news is the guys who always say "track day" but never go eventually will, because that will be their only choice.

[giant_mtb]

The people who think they're in charge are rarely the people in charge. Once autonomous cars become mainstream, insurance, economic and legal factors will soon make manual cars a rare plaything for the rich.

Good news is the guys who always say "track day" but never go eventually will, because that will be their only choice.

Or the woods. I don't want some autonomous bullshit trying to drive me down a bumpy logging road. 

[Soup DeVille]

Or the woods. I don't want some autonomous bullshit trying to drive me down a bumpy logging road. 

Yes, autonomous vehicles will first be constrained to certain controlled roads, then improved public roads, and then roads which are mapped. Off road areas and such will be more or less uncontrolled.

[giant_mtb]

Yes, autonomous vehicles will first be constrained to certain controlled roads, then improved public roads, and then roads which are mapped. Off road areas and such will be more or less uncontrolled.

We don't put nearly enough money into our roads to have AVs any time soon.

[12,000 RPM]

The people who think they're in charge are rarely the people in charge. Once autonomous cars become mainstream, insurance, economic and legal factors will soon make manual cars a rare plaything for the rich.

Good news is the guys who always say "track day" but never go eventually will, because that will be their only choice.

I still don't buy that insurance will go up for manual cars for autonomous driving. It's not like autonomous cars won't have any share in the total liability. If they work as promised there will be less crashes which should make it cheaper for everybody.

[MX793]

I still don't buy that insurance will go up for manual cars for autonomous driving. It's not like autonomous cars won't have any share in the total liability. If they work as promised there will be less crashes which should make it cheaper for everybody.

Autonomous cars remove human error from the equation, therefore manually driven cars will be a higher risk because they are the only ones that can behave erratically or unpredictably.  An autonomous car will not misjudge a braking distance or the closing speed of an approaching vehicle before executing a turn or entering a roadway from a side street.  I don't see how they could ever be found at fault for a collision.  From a liability standpoint, the human-driven vehicle will definitely be a higher liability.

[12,000 RPM]

Autonomous cars remove human error from the equation, therefore manually driven cars will be a higher risk because they are the only ones that can behave erratically or unpredictably.  An autonomous car will not misjudge a braking distance or the closing speed of an approaching vehicle before executing a turn or entering a roadway from a side street.  I don't see how they could ever be found at fault for a collision.  From a liability standpoint, the human-driven vehicle will definitely be a higher liability.

Yes human driven cars will have a higher risk of crashing than autonomous cars if everything goes as claimed, but human driven cars in a sea of autonomous cars will have a lower risk of crashing than human driven cars in a sea of other human driven cars. I don't see how that can do anything but drive premiums down, even if human drivers have to pay more than autonomous users.

Plus don't forget there is still stuff like theft, uninsured motorist coverage, gap coverage etc. Liability is obviously the biggest piece and will get cut down significantly, but I don't know that it will ever go away completely for people who register/own cars.

[MX793]

Yes human driven cars will have a higher risk of crashing than autonomous cars if everything goes as claimed, but human driven cars in a sea of autonomous cars will have a lower risk of crashing than human driven cars in a sea of other human driven cars. I don't see how that can do anything but drive premiums down, even if human drivers have to pay more than autonomous users.

Plus don't forget there is still stuff like theft, uninsured motorist coverage, gap coverage etc. Liability is obviously the biggest piece and will get cut down significantly, but I don't know that it will ever go away completely for people who register/own cars.

Insurance rates are based on relative risk.  The human driven vehicles will be the highest risk group, and will pay the highest insurance premiums because of it.

As to the notion of rates going down...  HAHAHAHAHA!

Cars today are vastly safer with respect to minimizing injury as well as helping the driver avoid accidents in the first place than they were 10 or 20 years ago what with all of the airbags, ABS, ESP, blind spot monitoring/warning systems, etc...  Have auto insurance rates gone down as all of this safety tech has been introduced?

[12,000 RPM]

Insurance rates are based on relative risk.  The human driven vehicles will be the highest risk group, and will pay the highest insurance premiums because of it.

Insurance rates are also based on the total risk of the pool, which will go down. For the 8th time, obviously human driven vehicles will have higher premiums.

As to the notion of rates going down...  HAHAHAHAHA!

Cars today are vastly safer with respect to minimizing injury as well as helping the driver avoid accidents in the first place than they were 10 or 20 years ago what with all of the airbags, ABS, ESP, blind spot monitoring/warning systems, etc...  Have auto insurance rates gone down as all of this safety tech has been introduced?

Well there are a couple of pretty obvious reasons why that may be....

For starters cars are a lot more complex than they used to be. A bumper hit = new parking sensors and possibly some radar/LIDAR stuff. A light front end collision = dozens of airbags. More complex materials and material mixes (i.e. high strength steel, aluminum) are nowhere near as straightforward to repair. Car values themselves, particularly in the used market, have skyrocketed. I keep referring back to Accords- in 03 a 10 year old Accord cost me $2200; an equivalent Accord today would cost 3-4x as much- well beyond what inflation would account for. That factors in. So on the car side there's plenty of stuff.

Then you get to the human side... phones have made us worse drivers. Accident/fatality rates per mile were on the decline, and then the smartphone came out and trends reversed, despite all the safety/accident avoidance tech. People are driving more since the recession ended. There are more cars and drivers on the road since 10-20 years ago. Etc. So plenty of factors there as well.

Obviously insurance companies are in it to make money, but prices are also bound by the market/competition... so barring some kind of price fixing scandal you have the inside scoop on I'd say premiums are pretty efficiently priced. As I said before, if anything autonomous cars would be a godsend to insurers, as they'd be able to generate the same profits on much less revenue/cost/headcount/hassle etc.

[Soup DeVille]

I still don't buy that insurance will go up for manual cars for autonomous driving. It's not like autonomous cars won't have any share in the total liability. If they work as promised there will be less crashes which should make it cheaper for everybody.

There's this huge automotive insurance industry to support. Autonomous vehicles will be many times safer, and will be discounted heavily compared to normal cars. As insurance is often nearly on par with purchase price for some cars, this will be a major driver.

[Raza]

Yes human driven cars will have a higher risk of crashing than autonomous cars if everything goes as claimed, but human driven cars in a sea of autonomous cars will have a lower risk of crashing than human driven cars in a sea of other human driven cars. I don't see how that can do anything but drive premiums down, even if human drivers have to pay more than autonomous users.

Plus don't forget there is still stuff like theft, uninsured motorist coverage, gap coverage etc. Liability is obviously the biggest piece and will get cut down significantly, but I don't know that it will ever go away completely for people who register/own cars.

You really think premiums for manually driven cars will go down with the rise of autonomous cars?

[12,000 RPM]

There's this huge automotive insurance industry to support. Autonomous vehicles will be many times safer, and will be discounted heavily compared to normal cars. As insurance is often nearly on par with purchase price for some cars, this will be a major driver.

Oh, the auto insurance industry will definitely shrink. It's a low margin business, and the bulk of the cost side revolves around claims. If autonomous cars eliminate the bulk of claims, there won't be that much industry to support. Can't adjust + make repairs + offer rentals for claims on accidents that never happened in the first place

You really think premiums for manually driven cars will go down with the rise of autonomous cars?

I have been asking why people believe otherwise for years, and have been getting nothing but implicit admissions of a lack of understanding of how insurance and business in general works. Autonomous cars will present the rare opportunity for costs and prices to go down while increasing profitability

[Soup DeVille]

Oh, the auto insurance industry will definitely shrink. It's a low margin business, and the bulk of the cost side revolves around claims. If autonomous cars eliminate the bulk of claims, there won't be that much industry to support. Can't adjust + make repairs + offer rentals for claims on accidents that never happened in the first place
I have been asking why people believe otherwise for years, and have been getting nothing but implicit admissions of a lack of understanding of how insurance and business in general works. Autonomous cars will present the rare opportunity for costs and prices to go down while increasing profitability

They will shrink reluctantly. What will really be the tipping point will be "autonomous only" insurance companies that will drive the price down quickly.

[Raza]

I have been asking why people believe otherwise for years, and have been getting nothing but implicit admissions of a lack of understanding of how insurance and business in general works. Autonomous cars will present the rare opportunity for costs and prices to go down while increasing profitability

Because prices don't go down. When have you known insurance companies to be generous? 

[12,000 RPM]

Because prices don't go down. When have you known insurance companies to be generous? 

I pay less for full coverage on our 4 vehicles today than I did for full coverage on my POS Accords/Maximas 10-15+ years ago. Home insurance policies definitely got cheaper when values collapsed during the recession. Etc. Come on, you are a law student, you can do better than this.

[CaminoRacer]

Other than the Uber deathstrike, autonomous car testing has basically proven than the only accidents happen when a human driver hits the autonomous car. So insurance rates will depend on how many autonomous cars vs. manually driven cars are on the road. The less manual drivers there are, the more narrowly the cause of the risk is concentrated and the higher the premiums will be for those few people.

[giant_mtb]

I pay less for full coverage on our 4 vehicles today than I did for full coverage on my POS Accords/Maximas 10-15+ years ago. Home insurance policies definitely got cheaper when values collapsed during the recession. Etc. Come on, you are a law student, you can do better than this.

Were you in your mid-20s 10-15 years ago? 🤔

[12,000 RPM]

Were you in your mid-20s 10-15 years ago? 🤔

I was... premiums went down when I turned 25, which they would not do if "prices don't go down". They have zero reason to that.

[giant_mtb]

I was... premiums went down when I turned 25, which they would not do if "prices don't go down". They have zero reason to that.

Everybody's premiums drop when they turn 25, so using that as an example seems moot.  Which is why I asked.

[Laconian]

You move to a different risk bucket. It is different.

[MX793]

Everybody's premiums drop when they turn 25, so using that as an example seems moot.  Which is why I asked.

Mine didn't decrease materially.  Less than 5%, IIRC.

[MX793]

I was... premiums went down when I turned 25, which they would not do if "prices don't go down". They have zero reason to that.

Micro vs macro.

[12,000 RPM]

So run me through the evidence/logic that autonomous cars would make for a macro increase for manual driver's insurance premiums. How does less risk = higher premiums?

[MX793]

So run me through the evidence/logic that autonomous cars would make for a macro increase for manual driver's insurance premiums. How does less risk = higher premiums?

Is the average insurance premium for any given risk group (e.g. single males under 25, married men over 30, single women over 25, whatever) less than it was for the same group 15 years ago, adjusting for inflation?

That your rates went down from 15 years ago (corresponding from you as an individual, IOW "micro", shifting to a different risk pool) does not mean that rates as a whole have trended down.

Cars are safer now.  Injuries are down.  Rates are up.  Insurance profits are up.  Even if rates for autonomous cars are down, driving national average premiums down, I don't see non-autonomous rates ever dropping.  Mostly because rates are based most heavily on the type of car you drive (sports car, SUV, minivan), your statistics (marital status, age, credit rating), and your driving record (tickets, at-fault accidents), not what everyone else around you drives.  A 21 year old male with a non-autonomous Mustang is going to be just as much an insurance liability in a future when most cars are autonomous as today.  Ergo, the rates for said driver in said car should not be expected to be any less in the future.  If anything, they'll go up if for no other reason than to "incentivize" people to move to lower risk, autonomous vehicles.  Just as the insurance industry has put a beat-down on sportbikes and coupes by jacking the rates on vehicles classified as such to incentivize people not to buy them.  The basic performance capabilities of a BMW S1000RR and S1000XR are basically the same on the street, but one carries a significantly higher insurance premium because it's a "sportbike" while the other is an "adventure bike" or "dual sport".

[Raza]

I pay less for full coverage on our 4 vehicles today than I did for full coverage on my POS Accords/Maximas 10-15+ years ago. Home insurance policies definitely got cheaper when values collapsed during the recession. Etc. Come on, you are a law student, you can do better than this.

10 to 15 years ago, you were in a higher risk category than you are now.  Don't be ridiculous; those things aren't comparable.  You at 18 and you at 30 are not comparable for car insurance purposes. 

[12,000 RPM]

Mostly because rates are based most heavily on the type of car you drive (sports car, SUV, minivan), your statistics (marital status, age, credit rating), and your driving record (tickets, at-fault accidents), not what everyone else around you drives.  A 21 year old male with a non-autonomous Mustang is going to be just as much an insurance liability in a future when most cars are autonomous as today.

Mostly wrong. Yes a 21 year old Rustang driver will be a high risk driver. No, these aren't the factors rates are most heavily based on, at least in my experience. My Civic, Z and G all cost about the same to insure with full coverage More importantly, I can't seem to get a quote now, but I'm certain that if I plopped my exact statistics here (married 34 y/o dad w/a few tickets) into a NYC address my rates would skyrocket. So by far where you are, and by extension what other cars are around you, have the biggest impact on your rates.

If the majority of cars around you are programmed to + demonstrably shown to reduce the likelihood of an accident, guess what. You are at less risk of having one, which makes you less risky, which will drive your premiums down. Coming back to your 21 year old- where is he more likely to have an accident: a crowded city where he is constantly surrounded by other drivers, or in the middle of nowhere with nobody around? You guys seem to have forgotten how the majority of accidents work (hint: they usually involve more than one car)

[MX793]

Mostly wrong. Yes a 21 year old Rustang driver will be a high risk driver. No, these aren't the factors rates are most heavily based on, at least in my experience. My Civic, Z and G all cost about the same to insure with full coverage More importantly, I can't seem to get a quote now, but I'm certain that if I plopped my exact statistics here (married 34 y/o dad w/a few tickets) into a NYC address my rates would skyrocket. So by far where you are, and by extension what other cars are around you, have the biggest impact on your rates.

If the majority of cars around you are programmed to + demonstrably shown to reduce the likelihood of an accident, guess what. You are at less risk of having one, which makes you less risky, which will drive your premiums down. Coming back to your 21 year old- where is he more likely to have an accident: a crowded city where he is constantly surrounded by other drivers, or in the middle of nowhere with nobody around? You guys seem to have forgotten how the majority of accidents work (hint: they usually involve more than one car)

Insurance rates anywhere in NYS are much higher than North Carolina (and most other states).  That's driven by state-specific insurance regulation, not risk pool.  Dense city vs middle of nowhere makes some difference, but only because there's less opportunity for you to damage someone else's property (which is what liability covers).  Same effect as not driving many miles annually vs driving a lot of miles.

For coverage other than liability (collision and comp), location makes a difference.  Living in a high crime area can drive up comprehensive premiums, for example.  High traffic density increases opportunity for a collision, same as driving lots of miles.  Collision covers damage to your vehicle when you are at fault, so that should be unaffected by what everyone else around you drives.  If anything, it may go up for non-autonomous vehicles when autonomous vehicles become the majority.