EVs

[Morris Minor]

Terrible law.

It's a tangled, confused contradictory, unworkable mess, produced by cynical incompetent cretins. I hope the EU & Korea succeed in getting the WTO to nix it.

[SJ_GTI]

ITT I learned that CarSPIN doesn't like laws that encourage manufacturing in the US and also want the global elites to overrule the sovereignty of the US government. 

[GoCougs]

ITT I learned that CarSPIN doesn't like laws that encourage manufacturing in the US and also want the global elites to overrule the sovereignty of the US government. 

That happens anyway; US law only speeds it up as it always has.

[Morris Minor]

ITT I learned that CarSPIN doesn't like laws that encourage manufacturing in the US and also want the global elites to overrule the sovereignty of the US government. 

"Manufacturing" in the US includes using government to shield you from the competition that punishes the making of shoddy inferior products.  It truly is a terrible law.

[veeman]

I don't know if someone posted this earlier, but it's a great take down of the too rapid expansion of EV:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=avi9iBC8opU

[GoCougs]

I think they're a bit clownish on the topic TBH, but overall, the tenor is correct - more power = more power infrastructure - but that's on a small part of the hard stop of widespread if not universal EV adoption.

[Laconian]

An executive car like a Model S has the energy equivalent of two gallons of gas in it.

[r0tor]

I think he should power his refrigerator with a gas powered generator

[Soup DeVille]

I think he should power his refrigerator with a gas powered generator

Good chance he does.

[Morris Minor]

I wonder which auto makers will be left standing 10 years from now. I've a hunch it will look like the cellphone market today: Apple, Android, nobody else.

[CaminoRacer]

Tesla, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, and VW are the front runners now. GM is in a weird spot with the Bolt which beat the others to market but then the rest of their portfolio is taking a little bit longer

[Morris Minor]

I'd say Tesla + Hyundai/Kia for sure. Ford has a fighting chance with Jim Farley at the helm.  VW I'm not so sure.

[CaminoRacer]

We'll see how VW's push to hire lots of software engineers goes. Their EVs are mechanically pretty good, only complaints are about the software from what I've seen. (the opposite of Tesla lol)

[veeman]

You guys don't think Toyota or Honda will be around 10 years from now?

[veeman]

I think this big all in EV push is going to spectacularly backfire in about 10 years.  They're pushing the product without the backend infrastructure to support it on the scale that they're pushing. 

[CaminoRacer]

You guys don't think Toyota or Honda will be around 10 years from now?

I do, but there's no evidence of them being EV leaders yet

[veeman]

I do, but there's no evidence of them being EV leaders yet

I think they're playing it smart realizing you can't go all in on EV when there isn't enough infrastructure on the backend to support mass adoption (IMHO).  Plus the other half of the world (Mexico, Central America, South America, Eastern Europe, Russia, Africa, and a lot of Asia (including the massive population of India) where there is no significant EV for the foreseeable near term or even not so near term future. 

China is currently employing week long blackouts of several factories because they don't have enough power to supply them given their rivers are drying up and consequent loss of hydroelectric power generation.  And China wants to switch all of their cars to EV?  How's that going to work?  I just don't get it. 

[MrH]

I do, but there's no evidence of them being EV leaders yet

But Morris asked who will still be standing in 10 years?

I don't see being an "EV Leader" as a requirement to survive 10 years from now.  EVs will continue to be a niche for a long time.

[Morris Minor]

Yup - I think Honda & Toyota have chosen to eschew EVs for now and wait on the mistakes of others. Meantime they do great hybrids, which are viable in 2nd & 3rd world countries.

I saw in Vietnam that they can't even keep the lights on for the load they already have. There's no way their infrastructure could handle more. My uninformed extrapolation is that this is the case in most places outside N. America & Europe.

[CaminoRacer]

But Morris asked who will still be standing in 10 years?

I don't see being an "EV Leader" as a requirement to survive 10 years from now.  EVs will continue to be a niche for a long time.

Yeah I didn't fully answer his question because I think everyone will still be standing in 10 years. Even Mitsubishi is still around in 2022, 6-7 years after killing the Evo.

[MrH]

Yup - I think Honda & Toyota have chosen to eschew EVs for now and wait on the mistakes of others. Meantime they do great hybrids, which are viable in 2nd & 3rd world countries.

I saw in Vietnam that they can't even keep the lights on for the load they already have. There's no way their infrastructure could handle more. My uninformed extrapolation is that this is the case in most places outside N. America & Europe.

...they're also viable in 1st world countries?   They're much more viable for the foreseeable future.  EVs are going to be supply constrained by raw materials for decades.

[AutobahnSHO]

I think this big all in EV push is going to spectacularly backfire in about 10 years.  They're pushing the product without the backend infrastructure to support it on the scale that they're pushing. 

I've seen a bunch of new gas stations go up or going up- with no charging installed. Even if it's 10min to go snack shopping that would be enough to get someone home if they live close by...

[AutobahnSHO]

Uhoh. 200k+ vehicles affected
https://zeenews.india.com/auto/hyundai-kia-recalls-over-2-lakh-vehicles-advises-owners-to-park-outside-due-to-fire-risk-2500792.html/amp

[CaminoRacer]

Do they get a free new 66 kWh battery like I did?

[Morris Minor]

Uhoh. 200k+ vehicles affected
https://zeenews.india.com/auto/hyundai-kia-recalls-over-2-lakh-vehicles-advises-owners-to-park-outside-due-to-fire-risk-2500792.html/amp

Trivia:
Lakh... Indian 2,2,3 numbering system looks so odd to my eyes: a lakh = 100,000 but written as 1,00,000

[veeman]

Trivia:
Lakh... Indian 2,2,3 numbering system looks so odd to my eyes: a lakh = 100,000 but written as 1,00,000

Yeah all my uncles/aunts/cousins in India speak numbers, especially when it comes to money, in lakhs (100,000) and crores (10 million, or 100 lakhs). The Indian currency (rupee) is roughly 1 dollar = 80 rupees.  So an average car costs about 7 to 8 lakhs (around 10 grand in dollars) and a real nice dwelling in a nice area of town that a rich person will live in will cost a few crores. 

[mzziaz]

I think this big all in EV push is going to spectacularly backfire in about 10 years.  They're pushing the product without the backend infrastructure to support it on the scale that they're pushing. 

Meh, I think those problems are overblown in the video above.

Norway has a 90% adoption rate of EVs for new cars and that works out perfectly fine without any nassive investments in infrastructure.

In practice most cars are charging during the night when the load is low on the power grid.

[giant_mtb]

Meh, I think those problems are overblown in the video above.

Norway has a 90% adoption rate of EVs for new cars and that works out perfectly fine without any nassive investments in infrastructure.

In practice most cars are charging during the night when the load is low on the power grid.

Norway also only has about 1/60th the population of the States and 1/25th the land area. 

[CaminoRacer]

Norway also only has about 1/60th the population of the States and 1/25th the land area. 

Gotta compare electric grid capacity per capita.

I have no clue where to find that data.

[Morris Minor]

1902: they had all these new horseless carriages but it was literally impossible to build specialist outlets that might have been called "gas stations" to fuel & service them.
This is why, in 2022, we still have to go to the nearest general store to buy petroleum spirit in gallon cans. Also I'll have 3 lbs of flour with that please, a ball of sisal string, and a fly swatter.
Coming right up sir.