EVs

[GoCougs]

Anyways none of this really matters because these rules have a habit of not getting enforced or scrapped when the time comes for them to go in effect.

WtP are mostly only buying Tesla, not EVs, plus it's been 10 years on and  EVs are still too expensive and too limited for most drivers.

[veeman]

WtP are mostly only buying Tesla, not EVs, plus it's been 10 years on and  EVs are still too expensive in and too limited for most drivers.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ford-raising-car-prices-by-insane-amount/ar-AA11ewac

Yes.  Ford recently announced big price hikes on their current and future EV cars.  $3 thousand all the way up to $8 thousand on the Mustang Mach E and price hikes as well on the upcoming Ford F-150 Lightning.

I don't see this rare metal shortage going away anytime soon.  It's not like there are known deposits of this stuff in the Nevada Desert.  Also if demand sky rockets, and the supply of these rare metals doesn't skyrocket with it, won't they just get even more expensive? 

[veeman]

On the subject of Newsome's edict. Something's got to give. Califormia doesn't like petrol cars... and it doesn't like PG&E, who it needs, but is one of its chosen whipping boys.

One of the the topics Adam Wadecki has talked about on his (excellent) Rare Classic Cars channel, is the Malaise Era. The decline of the Big Three was caused largely by the government's stretch goals of emissions reduction and CAFE rules. The basic idea was laudable but the timeline was about that of what it took them to design & develop a SINGLE new model. They certainly did not have the resources to do this across all of their lines simultaneously. SO they ended up with rushed-to-market poorly-designed garbage: cheap, unreliable, low quality. This was the gift the Japanese & the Europeans had been looking for: they were ready to go.

Excellent analogy! 

[Laconian]

It's not equal. You need to divide by ten - a Model S stores a tenth the energy of similar executive cars.

I'd like to see this enthusiasm for protecting the energy grid also  applied to Hvac-dependent McMansions in the South. Because each one of those 5000sq ft monstrosities uses a Model S worth of energy per day.

[Laconian]

WtP are mostly only buying Tesla, not EVs, plus it's been 10 years on and  EVs are still too expensive and too limited for most drivers.

Objectively untrue, the waiting list for many EVs overflow into 2023.

[Morris Minor]

WtP are mostly only buying Tesla, not EVs, plus it's been 10 years on and  EVs are still too expensive and too limited for most drivers.

I saw an Ioniq 5 here yesterday, a first in banjos & squirrel stew country. But otherwise it's Teslas.

[CaminoRacer]

It's not equal. You need to divide by ten - a Model S stores a tenth the energy of similar executive cars.

I'd like to see this enthusiasm for protecting the energy grid also  applied to Hvac-dependent McMansions in the South. Because each one of those 5000sq ft monstrosities uses a Model S worth of energy per day.

Yup! EVs reduce overall energy used, therefore they are a good step forward. We should be looking at improving the grid and finding other efficiency gains in things like HVAC and heavy industry or data centers. That's forward thinking instead of just being scared of the EVs.

[GoCougs]

On the subject of Newsome's edict. Something's got to give. Califormia doesn't like petrol cars... and it doesn't like PG&E, who it needs, but is one of its chosen whipping boys.

One of the the topics Adam Wadecki has talked about on his (excellent) Rare Classic Cars channel, is the Malaise Era. The decline of the Big Three was caused largely by the government's stretch goals of emissions reduction and CAFE rules. The basic idea was laudable but the timeline was about that of what it took them to design & develop a SINGLE new model. They certainly did not have the resources to do this across all of their lines simultaneously. SO they ended up with rushed-to-market poorly-designed garbage: cheap, unreliable, low quality. This was the gift the Japanese & the Europeans had been looking for: they were ready to go.

IMO, the decline began in 1970, heralded by the cheapening of the 1970 Cadillac Eldorado, one of the the most premium and stylized mainstream domestic vehicles of the '60s, in which it lost its hideaway headlights.

Another note is cars gained widespread features throughout the '70s - electronic ignition, PS, PB, front disc brakes - that were rare-ish options in the '60s.

[veeman]

Yup! EVs reduce overall energy used, therefore they are a good step forward. We should be looking at improving the grid and finding other efficiency gains in things like HVAC and heavy industry or data centers. That's forward thinking instead of just being scared of the EVs.

I'm in favor of the above. 

I'm against ridiculous edicts which have no chance of successful implementation because due diligence in making sure the electric grid can handle the expected increased load was not done.  It doesn't make any sense to me to require near 100% EV adoption in a densely populated urban area (of which California has many) when it is so obvious the electric grid cannot handle the expected increased load from such a requirement.  It is also so obvious that people who don't own their own houses with attached or nearby secured garages (not open air carports) will not be able to charge their EVs because there are not going to be nearly enough public charging stations available to supply the massive densely packed population which falls into that category. 

When edicts like this which have no chance of success are made, it causes a well deserved reputation that the people in charge are grossly incompetent and it will cause future climate change friendly initiatives to just have a higher hill to climb because of public mistrust. 

Maybe an analogy would be our history with recycling.  Heavily promoted, required, etc.  Turns out most of it, "recycling", was literally garbage.  It was a policy promoted by the plastic industry which absolved them from guilt of destroying the planet when they knew most plastic cannot be recycled cost effectively.  So we shipped the garbage supposedly recycleable  plastic waste to China and then they wised up and it got shipped to more unfortunate 3rd world Asian countries.  And all it did was heavily pollute their own environment.  So I stood there for years washing out my plastic Skippy peanut butter jar before diligently putting it in the recycling bin when I knew in my mind this is just going into a landfill anyways.  And then I stopped doing it because I knew these edicts were stupid, wasteful, and not accomplishing anything but instead more harmful to the environment.  There are few things worth recycling.  Aluminum cans, plastic drink bottles, glass bottles, and metal. Even most paper just goes into landfills. 

This is what happens when the people in charge do not do their due diligence in actually figuring out what will work and what won't with the resources at hand. 

It's reckless.

[giant_mtb]

I live in the middle of nowhere (by most of y'all's standards) and our county landfill has a proper recycling facility. They just finished it a few years ago and recyclables come in from all over the UP and parts of Wisconsin. Where do those materials go once they're sorted and packaged into bales...I do not know. But my buddy is the lead heavy equipment mechanic out there, showed me the new facility before it was opened. It's legit. I think they haul it down to somewhere in Wisconsin - somehow achieving profit from doing so - and then it gets dealt with. Not sure where it goes after that.

[GoCougs]

Objectively untrue, the waiting list for many EVs overflow into 2023.

"WtP are mostly only buying Tesla, not EVs" is objectively true: Through August 2022, Tesla has 68% market share, and #2 is Ford at 5%.

Bragging about sellouts and waiting lists is marketing gamesmanship - what counts is what people buy, and WtP buy Tesla. Maybe that changes, but my guess is that it doesn't change much - look at the Bolt and Leaf.

[CaminoRacer]

The Bolt that has like 4 owners who post on this tiny forum?

[GoCougs]

The Bolt that has like 4 owners who post on this tiny forum?

Uff da you sure love your anecdotes...

[Eye of the Tiger]

Uff da you sure love your anecdotes...

Tesla is an anecdote.

[giant_mtb]

Tesla is an anecdote.

Ur a neck dote.

[r0tor]

Yup! EVs reduce overall energy used, therefore they are a good step forward. We should be looking at improving the grid and finding other efficiency gains in things like HVAC and heavy industry or data centers. That's forward thinking instead of just being scared of the EVs.

That's half of my job right now.  The tech is there to greatly increase efficiencies.  Paybacks are usually long (5-7 years).  My experience is European sites dedicate ~5% of their capital for energy projects that funds these things despite payback.  American sites dedicate 0% to do so and will only do them when the payback meets their capex criteria

[giant_mtb]

That's half of my job right now.  The tech is there to greatly increase efficiencies.  Paybacks are usually long (5-7 years).  My experience is European sites dedicate ~5% of their capital for energy projects that funds these things despite payback.  American sites dedicate 0% to do so and will only do them when the payback meets their capex criteria

Out of curiosity, what sorts of things are you working on for said efficiency gains?

[Eye of the Tiger]

Ur a neck dote.

Could be

[r0tor]

Out of curiosity, what sorts of things are you working on for said efficiency gains?

There are rather simple "lifecycle replacement" items that are easier to sell to North American management to replace old shit with newer more efficient things (like industrial chillers).  My strategy is to just hide these things under a reliability issue.  I've also done a number of automation projects to make our utility plants or HVAC systems run more efficiently.  Those are usually fairly cheap.

Real savings are in energy/heat recovery projects.  So take something like a large air compressor or industrial chiller - they generate a ton of heat.  How do you take that heat and dump it into another system that needs heat (like a boiler or hot water heater) - rather than blowing the heat into the air or a cooling water system.   These are usually complex and pricey projects that European sites are doing and NA sites reject.

Then there are the rather pointless projects like schedules for lighting and temperatures in offices that everyone wants to talk about but have very little significance... I try to avoid these things like the plague.

[afty]

This is pretty neat: https://electrek.co/2022/09/02/tesla-virtual-power-plant-growing/

If you have a Powerwall in CA, you can opt in to sell power back to the grid for $2/kWh during high demand events such as the current heat wave. For context, $2/kWh is about 4x the peak rate and 8x off peak. This week it peaked at 20 MW.

[Morris Minor]

I was reading about that. Nice idea, I think their storage business is beginning to do well.

(There's a dam/power plant in Wales in the UK that pumps water up from a lake at night when demand is low, & discharges it back down again during the day through generator turbines to meet peak demand. It's been around a long time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station)

[Laconian]

The virtual power plant idea is cool, but I'd prefer to do it with LiFePO4 vs. regular lithium ion. Lithium ion cycles are too precious.

[GoCougs]

But what's the hard data, beyond wearing the batteries out faster, esp. re: efficiency losses - charging/discharging, transformation, transmission lines.

[giant_mtb]

This is pretty neat: https://electrek.co/2022/09/02/tesla-virtual-power-plant-growing/

If you have a Powerwall in CA, you can opt in to sell power back to the grid for $2/kWh during high demand events such as the current heat wave. For context, $2/kWh is about 4x the peak rate and 8x off peak. This week it peaked at 20 MW.

Why not just make the power grid adequate in the first place instead of relying on the people using it. lol

[Laconian]

Riding on infrastructural coattails is way easier

[giant_mtb]

Riding on infrastructural coattails is way easier

These are such weird (unsolved) problems to me. Oh, half of your state is a desert and people use A/C?!  Who woulda thunk.

[Morris Minor]

The virtual power plant idea is cool, but I'd prefer to do it with LiFePO4 vs. regular lithium ion. Lithium ion cycles are too precious.

It would make sense to switch on the face of it. I think some of the Texas-built cars now use LiFePO4 - and zillions of those built in China.

(Side benefit is you can do a store & forward deal; delay-charge your car with low-tariff electricity obtained at night.)

[GoCougs]

These are such weird (unsolved) problems to me. Oh, half of your state is a desert and people use A/C?!  Who woulda thunk.

A one-up Tesla Powerwall costs ~$12,000 installed x 13.1M households in CA = $157B.

Maybe it's just easier if WtP bought right-sized homes and right-sized ICE-powered vehicles, and eased way up on flying and trinket buying...

[CaminoRacer]

Maybe it's just easier if WtP bought right-sized homes and right-sized ICE-powered vehicles, and eased way up on flying and trinket buying...

I agree except with lots of right-sized PHEVs mixed in with those right-sized ICE vehicles.

Or everyone gets a small, efficient Miata and a small, efficient Bolt.

[Morris Minor]

But we don't do that, we buy much more than our utilitarian need: cars, homes, whatever. It's a self-expression thing, indulging interests, seeking prestige, looking for physical comfort, whatever. Car companies have been addressing this since the beginning. Base trim Corollas would meet 95% of our utilitarian requirements, but they're parked round the back of dealer lots.