EVs

[cawimmer430]

Smart man.

And call me old-fashioned, but I truly believe the internal combustion engine still has a future. To me personally an ICE is far more appealing than an EV, especially knowing my driving style.




Toyota CEO Says "Silent Majority" Of Auto Industry Is Doubting EV-Only Future

Akio Toyoda remains steadfast in his belief that EVs aren't the only way forward

Toyota chief executive Akio Toyoda claims that he is among the "silent majority" of those in the automotive industry questioning whether electric vehicles are the only way forward.

While recently speaking with reporters in Thailand, Toyoda once again reiterated his belief that the best way forward is to develop a host of different powertrain technologies, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen-powered, and battery-electric vehicles. This comes despite the fact that many of the world's largest car manufacturers have already committed to all-electric futures.



"People involved in the auto industry are largely a silent majority," Toyoda told reporters. "That silent majority is wondering whether EVs are really OK to have as a single option. But they think it's the trend so they can't speak out loudly...The right answer is still unclear, we shouldn't limit ourselves to just one option."

Toyoda has repeatedly refuted assertions across the industry that electric vehicles are the only way forward. He acknowledged that his efforts to convoy his point to stakeholders and government officials has proven tiring but told The Wall Street Journal that alternatives to EVs have started to receive a warmer reception among government officials and the media.

"Two years ago, I was the only person making these kinds of statements," Toyoda noted.

While a number of the world's largest car manufacturers have made sweeping commitments to electric vehicles, their combustion-engine businesses are generating most of the profits needed to fund EV expansion plans.

During a press event in Thailand where Toyota unveiled an all-electric version of the Hilux, Akio Toyoda expanded on his belief that selling EVs isn't the only way to achieve carbon neutrality.

"To achieve carbon neutrality, we must remember that carbon is the real enemy, not a particular powertrain," he said. "And frankly, BEV's are not the only way to achieve the world's carbon neutrality goals. At Toyota we believe in creating a full portfolio of carbon reducing choices for our customers from hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in electric vehicles, battery electric cars, and fuel cell vehicles."


Link: https://www.carscoops.com/2022/12/toyota-ceo-says-silent-majority-of-auto-industry-is-doubting-ev-only-future/

[Laconian]

Yeah hydrogen fuel-cell trucks make more sense and the current high costs for hydrogen can be offset by the fact that these trucks are literally on the road 24/7 getting their money's worth.

I also wouldn't underestimate the role that eFuels could and should play - synthetic carbon neutral fuels which can keep billions of ICE cars on the road. That would instantly help lower CO2 emissions. Let's get real: the rest of the world will be driving ICEs for decades to come. There is a market for eFuels.

IMO BEV cars are ideal for the city, but with their lack of serious range (on paper it looks good but once the weather, creature comfort and other factors come into play that range does not look so good anymore...) they just lack the comfort and flexibility of an ICE car on longer trips. We're being asked to rethink the way we travel with more stops (to charge) and slower travel (particularly in Germany where speeding is awesome).

Hydrogen fuel cell trucks would clean up the air a lot. Diesel trucks are nasty and really have no place operating where people are living. The rates of pulmonary and coronary diseases in cities are massively higher near intersections and places where diesel vehicles idle.

I agree that a blended solution is the only viable way, but moonshot goals can still achieve a positive effect even if they're not fully realistic today. BEVs might not be the right solution for a lot of drivers, but everybody on the planet is going to benefit from the huge boost in battery R&D. The better batteries get, the better our hybrids will become - and Toyoda's right, hybrids are probably the best way to go for the everyman.

I will soon find for myself if my suburban needs will be met with a BEV! I'm looking forward to the performance and handling of the car. It's a rocketship even when compared to my similar HP G37.

[giant_mtb]

Fuck yeah! BEVs!

https://youtu.be/CIWvk3gJ_7E

The whole podcast is mindblowing. Our batteries come from slaves and children making $1-2 a day mining cobalt in unregulated environmental conditions while the manuf's claim that they're saving the world.

[r0tor]

Modern batteries use very little (or no) cobalt.  Lithium mining can still be a disgusting thing, but there are many mines run in 1st world countries and the current US EV tax incentives will require the battery and minerals be mined in the US or other 1st world countries.

[GoCougs]

Fuck yeah! BEVs!

https://youtu.be/CIWvk3gJ_7E

The whole podcast is mindblowing. Our batteries come from slaves and children making $1-2 a day mining cobalt in unregulated environmental conditions while the manuf's claim that they're saving the world.

EVs in more ways than just mining push the nasty business of making and powering vehicles into someone else's backyard - most at automakers and in governments know this, but it's inconvenient, so it's collectively ignored. (To be fair, it's being going well before EVs became a thing.) Just imagine how much worse it gets should EV adoption become any sort of real thing. Sure, child slavery and work conditions will go away away, and then onto the next piece of nasty business, whatever it may be (probably something along the lines of making the places where that stuff is mined and processed sociopolitical hotbeds a la the Middle East).

[Laconian]

Modern batteries use very little (or no) cobalt.  Lithium mining can still be a disgusting thing, but there are many mines run in 1st world countries and the current US EV tax incentives will require the battery and minerals be mined in the US or other 1st world countries.

Plus the battery is reused for the lifetime of the car. In my state the electrons come from hydroelectric dams. Very clean.

What about the status quo? Fossil fuels are problematic at literally every stage. Extraction, refining, transportation, and combustion - all very dirty with lots of externalities. One car will use up around 25 tons of oil over its lifetime.

This just happened: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/17/1142675809/cleanup-for-keystone-pipeline-oil-spill-kansas

[cawimmer430]

Hydrogen fuel cell trucks would clean up the air a lot. Diesel trucks are nasty and really have no place operating where people are living. The rates of pulmonary and coronary diseases in cities are massively higher near intersections and places where diesel vehicles idle.

Don't you have emission laws for trucks? I recently had a shoot with four modern trucks for a trucking magazine which also involved running them inside a hall for certain photos - no Diesel smoke or smell whatsoever. These are modern EURO 6+ trucks.

When I'm shooting Diesel-powered G350d/G400d vehicles for Ovi Cars we leave the engine idling - no Diesel smell whatsoever, even after a cold start.

I will soon find for myself if my suburban needs will be met with a BEV! I'm looking forward to the performance and handling of the car. It's a rocketship even when compared to my similar HP G37.

I fail to see how the performance of an EV is suppose to excite me. I mean I drive a pretty quick car but hitting the pedal and rocking to 100 km/h in the shortest amount of time possible is something I never do. With all the traffic here it's tough being able to exploit legal high speeds here on the Autobahn - and in the US you guys have speed limits.

In a car I just want a stable (high) range and comfort, which also includes quick refueling (or charging).

[Laconian]

Don't you have emission laws for trucks? I recently had a shoot with four modern trucks for a trucking magazine which also involved running them inside a hall for certain photos - no Diesel smoke or smell whatsoever. These are modern EURO 6+ trucks.

Kind of. There are a lot of very dirty trucks on the road that will leave a lingering cloud of diesel soot when they accelerate from a stop. For over a decade we had a massive loophole that allowed dirty trucks to be given a fresh coat of paint and resold. https://www.popsci.com/glider-trucks-pollution-loophole/

These trucks are up to 55 times more polluting than modern trucks and were completely legal.

[Laconian]

I fail to see how the performance of an EV is suppose to excite me. I mean I drive a pretty quick car but hitting the pedal and rocking to 100 km/h in the shortest amount of time possible is something I never do. With all the traffic here it's tough being able to exploit legal high speeds here on the Autobahn - and in the US you guys have speed limits.

In a car I just want a stable (high) range and comfort, which also includes quick refueling (or charging).

The EV6 isn't a 0-60 sledgehammer. The steering, suspension and handling felt very dialed-in. It feels in many ways like our old zippy Acura TSX wagon did, except with big torque and AWD.

Your Autobahn requirements are so foreign to me. Whereas you can go as fast as you like, which really requires big power to overcome aerodynamic resistance (and a big energy dense fuel to keep the beast fed), here it's considered lucky to be at the speed limit on our clogged interstates. Slower, medium-haul trips are what we do. And we have the ability to charge at home which will take our cost per "tank" of electricity to around eight dollars. That's something to take into account when understanding how BEVs might be appealing for other folks.

[giant_mtb]

Being able to charge at home is huge, especially for a daily driver.  Definitely something appealing about being able to plug it in at night and have a full tank ready to go every morning.  Takes the need to go to local charging stations out of the equation unless you're going on a longer trip away from home base.

[Laconian]

Home charging is a lot gentler on the battery too. DC fast charging causes quite a bit more wear and tear.

I went through my Google location history and I think I'd only need to charge at a public station about four times over the past year (assuming 270mi range).

[afty]

Home charging is a lot gentler on the battery too. DC fast charging causes quite a bit more wear and tear.

I went through my Google location history and I think I'd only need to charge at a public station about four times over the past year (assuming 270mi range).

I charged away from home only 4 times in the past year. All 4 were on road trips from the Bay Area to L.A.

[cawimmer430]

Kind of. There are a lot of very dirty trucks on the road that will leave a lingering cloud of diesel soot when they accelerate from a stop. For over a decade we had a massive loophole that allowed dirty trucks to be given a fresh coat of paint and resold. https://www.popsci.com/glider-trucks-pollution-loophole/

These trucks are up to 55 times more polluting than modern trucks and were completely legal.

Sounds like you guys need stricter emission laws for those old Diesel trucks. Here we don't have that issue (unless the trucks are from Eastern Europe), the modern EURO 6+ trucks are all very clean - and quiet. During the shoot with the trucks I rode in one of the newest Volvos and inside the cabin it was so quiet - wow. The IVECO and the MAN were also pretty quiet. On the other hand the Mercedes Arocs was the loudest inside and out! 

[cawimmer430]

The EV6 isn't a 0-60 sledgehammer. The steering, suspension and handling felt very dialed-in. It feels in many ways like our old zippy Acura TSX wagon did, except with big torque and AWD.

Your Autobahn requirements are so foreign to me. Whereas you can go as fast as you like, which really requires big power to overcome aerodynamic resistance (and a big energy dense fuel to keep the beast fed), here it's considered lucky to be at the speed limit on our clogged interstates. Slower, medium-haul trips are what we do. And we have the ability to charge at home which will take our cost per "tank" of electricity to around eight dollars. That's something to take into account when understanding how BEVs might be appealing for other folks.

The thing about the Autobahn is if you're driving a car which handles superbly at high speeds and have power under your hood, you're longing to "try it out" the whole time. My car at 130 km/h feels dull because 130 km/h is not exciting and it makes me sleepy. But when I drive faster, I feel more alive and driving becomes more fun and engaging because my concentration improves as does my overall situational awareness. And don't get me wrong, on really long trips I will often set cruise control to 120-150 km/h to reach a compromise between speed and fuel economy, but when I want to speed it's nice that I can A) legally do so and B) have a car which can be driven fast for hundreds of kilometers without the need to pull over and spend 30-45 minutes "refueling" somewhere.

I've driven a few EVs and my GF owns one (BMW i3S). I just feel that the overall "freedom" package is still missing here. On the Autobahn she has to creep at 80 km/h and keep the A/C or heating off or to a minimum in order to complete a somewhat longer journey (her max range at full charge is 225 km). 80 km/h on the Autobahn is slow... that's like 50 mph... I'm already getting aggressive when I am being forced to drive 120-130 km/h in some sections with speed limits because that's still slow. Essentially I am being forced to drive slow because otherwise I won't be able to reach my destination or have to charge inbetween. And those are the aspects which bothers me the most.

Yeah it's an early EV and no doubt the Rivians, Lucids, Teslas etc perform better here but to my knowledge driving over 120 km/h and heating in particular is a big drain on the battery. In regards to heating, some people who are home and garage owners can get around this, but the people who don't own their own garage and park on the street can't enter a pre-heated car in the mornings and thus suffer the range penalties when they activate heating.

[Morris Minor]

There is one brand of medium haul truck here that is ear-splittingly loud. Just awful. I hate them.
I think it's this. Typically used with a 26ft box.
https://freightliner.com/trucks/m2-106-plus/

[AutobahnSHO]

Autobahn is great but really the high speed is unnecessary. Germany is roughly the size of Montana.

I think certain delivery trucks would be great hybrid candidates. If we could make rail more efficient (more of the containers going from train to truck), we could cut a lot of the cross country trucking.

I read an article today comparing RAV4 ICE, hybrid, PHEV versions. Money wise the sweet spot is the hybrid, taking into account purchase price, projected maintenance, fuel cost, resale, and insurance..

[cawimmer430]

Autobahn is great but really the high speed is unnecessary. Germany is roughly the size of Montana.

It's still awesome as it saves you so much time and allows you to have fun with your car. I'd also argue that higher speeds force you to become more responsible, situationally aware and a better driver.

When CJ and his partner visited me in Munich this year, they told me that you can drive from one end of Texas to the other for 15 hours straight and you'd still be in Texas! I often wonder how Americans can drive so long without falling asleep or getting distracted when they are forced to drive at a speed limit.

When I am in the mood I'll also cruise at 120-150 km/h but I am incapable of doing that for hours straight as I quickly get bored, distracted, aggressive and long for a faster speed. I'm sure you know what I mean since you lived here and got to enjoy the Autobahn with your Taurus SHO!!!! 

[veeman]

Ford recently announced big price hike on base model F-150 Lightning.

https://electrek.co/2022/12/15/ford-f-150-lightning-price-increase/

The original advertised price for the base model of around 40 grand was clearly a marketing ploy.  That large a price hike over that short a time interval is not just supply chain issues and increased price of rare earth metals.  Ford was probably going to lose money on their 40 thousand dollar base model and thought better of doing that, especially because the Tesla Cybertruck and GM EV pickup truck (whenever those eventually come out) will still be priced higher. 

[veeman]

I think Ford and GM will need govt bail outs in the next 5 years. 

They've seemingly put all of their eggs in the EV basket and with starting prices of their new models in the near 50 thousand dollar, or higher, range (starting price of a Mach-E is close to 50 grand), they will, I think, fail without govt bail out.  They have not invested, it seems, in their future ICE offerings.  Toyota and Honda as well as Hyundai/Kia are well positioned for the future in the U.S. because Toyota/Honda have excellent hybrid tech and Hyundai/Kia have clearly invested in their ICE offerings as well as EV. 

The real question for me is will a DeSantis led presidency authorize a bail out of GM and Ford    I'm pretty sure they would. 

[Morris Minor]

It's about getting their production costs down: they need to be very highly automated - drastic reductions in parts & components counts, & stamping out vehicles like they're coming off an Oreo Cookies production line.

[AutobahnSHO]

In the meantime, they "could" sell every Maverick they ship to a dealer. But they're choosing to allocate resources towards the bigger money makers instead. Starting at $21k last year, even being built in Mexico to cut labor costs they're not the cash cow other vehicles are...

There was speculation they may build an EV Maverick but I'm guessing that's a few years out.

[r0tor]

I think Ford and GM will need govt bail outs in the next 5 years. 

They've seemingly put all of their eggs in the EV basket and with starting prices of their new models in the near 50 thousand dollar, or higher, range (starting price of a Mach-E is close to 50 grand), they will, I think, fail without govt bail out.  They have not invested, it seems, in their future ICE offerings.  Toyota and Honda as well as Hyundai/Kia are well positioned for the future in the U.S. because Toyota/Honda have excellent hybrid tech and Hyundai/Kia have clearly invested in their ICE offerings as well as EV. 

The real question for me is will a DeSantis led presidency authorize a bail out of GM and Ford    I'm pretty sure they would. 

They have been depending on $70k truck sales for a decade now

[giant_mtb]

I think Ford and GM will need govt bail outs in the next 5 years. 

They've seemingly put all of their eggs in the EV basket and with starting prices of their new models in the near 50 thousand dollar, or higher, range (starting price of a Mach-E is close to 50 grand), they will, I think, fail without govt bail out.  They have not invested, it seems, in their future ICE offerings.  Toyota and Honda as well as Hyundai/Kia are well positioned for the future in the U.S. because Toyota/Honda have excellent hybrid tech and Hyundai/Kia have clearly invested in their ICE offerings as well as EV. 

The real question for me is will a DeSantis led presidency authorize a bail out of GM and Ford    I'm pretty sure they would.

Huh? Escapes, Equinoxes, Taverses, Tahoes, ICE trucks...still in production and still selling like hot cakes. A couple EVs aren't going to bring them to their knees.

[Laconian]

Huh? Escapes, Equinoxes, Taverses, Tahoes, ICE trucks...still in production and still selling like hot cakes. A couple EVs aren't going to bring them to their knees.

Yeah, no kidding. They run on cash cows with monstrous profit margins. They can definitely afford to keep some forward-looking cost centers afloat.

The original Lightning MSRP was unsustainable. The truck is a HUGE battery bank and fluctuations in battery prices hit the bottom line in a big way. I think Ford realizes that it no longer has to compete with the Cybertruck smoke and mirrors - it's not coming out any time soon, and the price isn't going to be anywhere close to what was promised when Tesla took preorders more than three years ago.

[veeman]

Huh? Escapes, Equinoxes, Taverses, Tahoes, ICE trucks...still in production and still selling like hot cakes. A couple EVs aren't going to bring them to their knees.

Yeah, no kidding. They run on cash cows with monstrous profit margins. They can definitely afford to keep some forward-looking cost centers afloat.

Yeah, right now they're selling but GM/Ford do not seem to be investing in their future ICE products.  I don't know that for sure but it seems all their cash is in the EV basket.  Maybe they're smarter than I give them credit for and it's all marketing, regarding how they're all in on an EV future. 

https://www.gm.com/electric-vehicles

https://www.motortrend.com/news/ford-ev-production-capacity-plan-layoffs/

Are these pure marketing ploys? 

[giant_mtb]

Yeah, right now they're selling but GM/Ford do not seem to be investing in their future ICE products.  I don't know that for sure but it seems all their cash is in the EV basket.  Maybe they're smarter than I give them credit for and it's all marketing, regarding how they're all in on an EV future. 

https://www.gm.com/electric-vehicles

https://www.motortrend.com/news/ford-ev-production-capacity-plan-layoffs/

Are these pure marketing ploys?

Ford sells more ICE F150s alone in one year than their entire lofty 600,000 EV vehicle production goal.  You really think they're giving that up in the next 5 years? lol

[veeman]

Ford sells more ICE F150s alone in one year than their entire lofty 600,000 EV vehicle production goal.  You really think they're giving that up in the next 5 years? lol

No but I don't think Ford can stay afloat with just the F150.  How much are they vs how much should they be investing in ICE versions of the Escape, Edge, Explorer, and Expedition? 

By marketing it seems like they're betting the farm on an all EV near term future and a close to 50 thousand dollar Mustang Mach-E and close to 60 thousand dollar F-150 Lightning, both for base trim models, don't seem to be market winning strategies.

Maybe I'm totally wrong and the mainstream Japanese and Korean competitors of GM and Ford will lose market share in the near term future and GM and Ford will make out like bandits. 

[giant_mtb]

No but I don't think Ford can stay afloat with just the F150.  How much are they vs how much should they be investing in ICE versions of the Escape, Edge, Explorer, and Expedition? 

By marketing it seems like they're betting the farm on an all EV near term future and a close to 50 thousand dollar Mustang Mach-E and close to 60 thousand dollar F-150 Lightning, both for base trim models, don't seem to be market winning strategies.

Maybe I'm totally wrong and the mainstream Japanese and Korean competitors of GM and Ford will lose market share in the near term future and GM and Ford will make out like bandits.

What do you even mean by "they don't seem to be investing in their future ICE products"...?  The Escape and Explorer just entered their current generation a few years ago (MY2020).  The Escape is available in PHEV guise, the Explorer is available as a hybrid.  The Expedition is only five years into its current generation.  The F-150's current generation was just released MY2021 (right alongside its EV counterpart).  They're very clearly putting money into their most popular ICE vehicles.

The Edge is slated to be discontinued, but that doesn't really surprise me anyways.

I see a thousand F150s, Escapes, and Explorers a day.  Know how many Mach-E's I've seen?  Zero.

A lot of it is marketing.  Being seen as a "green" company helps get people in the door.  "Wellllll, so you can't afford a Mach-E....how about this fuel-efficient Escape for $20,000 less?"

[veeman]

https://www.motortrend.com/news/ford-ev-production-capacity-plan-layoffs/

https://fordauthority.com/2022/04/future-ford-evs-will-not-be-fully-electric-versions-of-existing-lineup/


As per the first article:

"All these initiatives are part of the Ford+ plan which requires the elimination of $3 billion in annual costs by 2026 to free up the capital needed to transition to electric vehicles. Ford CEO Jim Farley wants the company to achieve a 10 percent profit margin by 2026, up from 7.3 percent last year. Farley wants EVs, which are more expensive to produce because of the battery pack, to have an 8 percent profit margin by 2026. This is critical to profitability as the automaker wants more than half of its global production to be EVs by 2030.

Ford officials on the media call would not comment on media reports that Ford plans to cut thousands of white-collar workers, many of them associated with the legacy side of the business that makes vehicles with internal combustion engines. Salaried workers in sales, marketing, engineering, and corporate functions, will be let go, according to Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal. Factory workers are not expected to be affected."


These are the actions of a company going all in on EV which I think will be a disaster because they are too expensive and have too many drawbacks especially with current infrastructure limitations.  The past storm affecting large swathes of the U.S. caused many electric companies to be on the brink of requiring rolling blackouts.  Very difficult to charge your EV if the electric company is telling everyone to conserve electricity (lower thermostat, avoid using dishwasher and dryer, etc). 

These are the actions of a company, I think, which will require a govt bailout in the next decade. 

[giant_mtb]

You could be right. 

I personally don't think it will happen, but it's possible that dumbass CEOs jumping the gun and diverting too much time/money/effort towards EVs could get them into a bit of trouble.

I mean, Ford's CEO is the same guy that thinks Harley-Davidson needs to electrify for the future...they haven't even sold much more than a few thousand of their ($23,000) electric motorcycle, LiveWire, since it's launch in 2019.  Meanwhile they sell ~3,800 ICE Harleys per week.  Seems to be working out!