EVs

[veeman]

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-proposes-56-vehicle-emissions-cut-by-2032-requiring-big-ev-jump-2023-04-12/

Will be complete failure.  There is no possible way the infrastructure will be in place to support that many EVs, especially in densely packed cities like Los Angeles. > 60% of L.A. residents are renters and don't own their own homes and many of these in multiunit apartments.   

[SJ_GTI]

66% by 2032 doesn't seem remotely extreme to me. It seems pretty reasonable and achievable.

Last quarter 7.2% of car sales in the US were EV and there are a ton of EV's on the verge of being introduced. Production of EV's is the only limit on the sales. I don't know if they would just organically get to 66% by 2032, but its certainly not unreasonable. EV's are in high demand right now. I think we are pretty close to closing the book on ICE vehicles (except in rare/unusual circumstances).

[Morris Minor]

And the Dept of Energy wants change the fuel economy formula, i.e. how fleet averages are calculated. Example the F150 Lightning equivalency is currently calculated at 238 mpg.


https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-proposes-slash-ev-mileage-ratings-meet-fuel-economy-rules-2023-04-11/

Under the new formula it would be 67 mpg. So with the Ford example that drastically increases the ratio of Lightnings to say 25mpg gas SUVs needed to meet the corporate fleet average mpg. Manufacturers would need to produce zillions more EVs.

[CaminoRacer]

Their current formula is a mess if it says 200+ MPGe for a truck. That's double a Bolt or Model 3

[SJ_GTI]

Yeah that doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

And it would only mean they need 1.33 EV's to offset each ICE sold to meet the same standard. Presumably between now and then ICE trucks will continue to get more efficient (via hybrids or PHEV if not through simply more efficient engines).

A world, 9 years from now, where a majority of new cars being sold being EV doesn't seem that outrageous to me.

[Morris Minor]

Yeah that doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

And it would only mean they need 1.33 EV's to offset each ICE sold to meet the same standard. Presumably between now and then ICE trucks will continue to get more efficient (via hybrids or PHEV if not through simply more efficient engines).

A world, 9 years from now, where a majority of new cars being sold being EV doesn't seem that outrageous to me.

Having been born in the 1950s, growing up in a highly polluted environment,  and seeing the consequences of people breathing shitty air all their lives, I really don't have a problem with EVs.
I would dearly like to see the whole MPG equivalent nonsense go away. Just measure cars on miles/kWh. But I suppose, however tortured, it's an interim metric to use on the legacy car makers until they transition.

[MrH]

Yeah that doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

And it would only mean they need 1.33 EV's to offset each ICE sold to meet the same standard. Presumably between now and then ICE trucks will continue to get more efficient (via hybrids or PHEV if not through simply more efficient engines).

A world, 9 years from now, where a majority of new cars being sold being EV doesn't seem that outrageous to me.

There simply aren't enough raw materials or mining operations to do that.  Unless you strangle the total output of vehicles, in which case, new cars will become even more a thing of the rich than they are now.

And there definitely isn't the infrastructure to support it either.  1/3 of the country lives in apartments, 2/3s in single family homes.  Of those in SFHs, 32% are rented.  44% of residents are in owner occupied, single family homes.  Charging at home is definitely a requirement for successful EV ownership.  There's no way we can make that kind of switch in 9 years.

[SJ_GTI]

There simply aren't enough raw materials or mining operations to do that.  Unless you strangle the total output of vehicles, in which case, new cars will become even more a thing of the rich than they are now.

And there definitely isn't the infrastructure to support it either.  1/3 of the country lives in apartments, 2/3s in single family homes.  Of those in SFHs, 32% are rented.  44% of residents are in owner occupied, single family homes.  Charging at home is definitely a requirement for successful EV ownership.  There's no way we can make that kind of switch in 9 years.

We'll see in 9 years I guess. I've seen the claims you are making made 100's of time and then refuted 100's of times. If it is impossible for there to be the infrastructure to handle 66% of new car sales being electric (which means adding something like 12 million cars to the grid a year, which removing something like 10-12 million gas vehicles) then this should all start crumbling very soon.

[r0tor]

I think the statement of not enough mining materials is a valid argument against current Li-ion technology, but in 10 years from now cars will not have li-ion batteries.

I just don't see the rush to push for EVs until the next generation of batteries are available

[Soup DeVille]

We'll see in 9 years I guess. I've seen the claims you are making made 100's of time and then refuted 100's of times. If it is impossible for there to be the infrastructure to handle 66% of new car sales being electric (which means adding something like 12 million cars to the grid a year, which removing something like 10-12 million gas vehicles) then this should all start crumbling very soon.

The infrastructure to support gas cars wasn't built overnight either.

The only issue I see is the over use of government subsidies to encourage EVs.

[Morris Minor]

Charging infrastructure is at the petrol equivalent of circa 1909, when gasoline was sold in cans general stores.

[veeman]

Yes my arguments about why it's not feasible are along the lines of Mr H.  It's not the ability to manufacture the cars, it's the ability to support having so many cars being EV on the road at the same time. 

Picture this - 3 day holiday weekend, millions of people on the road doing long interstate travel, and where are they all going to charge?  There are already long lines at gas stations where each fill up takes 5 minutes.  Also I've read the amount of electricity required to operate a massive EV supercharge station is equivalent to the power needed by a small city (especially if semi trucks are charging). 

And they think they can accomplish all this by 2032 (< 1 decade)? 

[giant_mtb]

Not to mention the electrical grid's ability to handle such a large amount of EVs.

California has already had to ask people not to charge their cars because the grid couldn't handle it when it was hot outside.

[MrH]

Yes my arguments about why it's not feasible are along the lines of Mr H.  It's not the ability to manufacture the cars, it's the ability to support having so many cars being EV on the road at the same time. 

Picture this - 3 day holiday weekend, millions of people on the road doing long interstate travel, and where are they all going to charge?  There are already long lines at gas stations where each fill up takes 5 minutes.  Also I've read the amount of electricity required to operate a massive EV supercharge station is equivalent to the power needed by a small city (especially if semi trucks are charging). 

And they think they can accomplish all this by 2032 (< 1 decade)? 

Public charging is simply dead in the water for quite awhile.  It's not a scalable, realistic solution in <10 years.  Vast majority of people need to be able to charge at home for mass EV adoption, and I think that market is mostly limited to single family homes that are owner occupied.  If we think cars are expensive and hard to get now, just imagine when we regulate to EVs faster than the supply chain can keep up.  It will continue to be a game of pre-ordering EVs, only by the rich.  This kind of legislation hurts middle and lower class.

[Morris Minor]

Public charging is simply dead in the water for quite awhile.  It's not a scalable, realistic solution in <10 years.  Vast majority of people need to be able to charge at home for mass EV adoption, and I think that market is mostly limited to single family homes that are owner occupied.  If we think cars are expensive and hard to get now, just imagine when we regulate to EVs faster than the supply chain can keep up.  It will continue to be a game of pre-ordering EVs, only by the rich.  This kind of legislation hurts middle and lower class.

I wrote to both my senators about some of the crazy counterproductive stuff in the Inflation Reduction Act. One (Warnock) acknowledged by putting me on a donors begging mailing list, and subscribing me to a weekly "look at me" email blast. This is what happens when we elect low-caliber people to do jobs that are more demanding than scrubbing excrement off bathroom floors. And the tragedy is that they are a reflection of us the electors.

[MrH]

I wrote to both my senators about some of the crazy counterproductive stuff in the Inflation Reduction Act. One (Warnock) acknowledged by putting me on a donors begging mailing list, and subscribing me to a weekly "look at me" email blast. This is what happens when we elect low-caliber people to do jobs that are more demanding than scrubbing excrement off bathroom floors. And the tragedy is that they are a reflection of us the electors.

You're writing to your senators?!  Wow, you really are retired

I agree, the Inflation Reduction Act is a huge waste.  I definitely should not be getting a tax break to buy an EV.

[AutobahnSHO]

Hybrids are the best solution near term...

[mzziaz]

90% of new cars sold here in Norway are EVs. Works fine. Charging stations are popping up everywhere.

I saw a gas station a while ago where the front row of gas pumps was replaced with chargers.

Nine years ago there was hardly any EVs around

[giant_mtb]

90% of new cars sold here in Norway are EVs. Works fine. Charging stations are popping up everywhere.

I saw a gas station a while ago where the front row of gas pumps was replaced with chargers.

Nine years ago there was hardly any EVs around

Yeah, that's cool, when your entire country's population is smaller than my state's population. We have 50 of those to deal with. It's gonna be a while before it gets there.

[mzziaz]

This will scale perfectly well

[MrH]

90% of new cars sold here in Norway are EVs. Works fine. Charging stations are popping up everywhere.

I saw a gas station a while ago where the front row of gas pumps was replaced with chargers.

Nine years ago there was hardly any EVs around

You have a nationally run oil fund that's huge.  Norway is very tiny and very unique.

[giant_mtb]

This will scale perfectly well

Perfectly? Ehhhh. Well? Ehhhh, eventually.  But not within one decade.

[Morris Minor]

In contrast to its neighbor across the North Sea, Norway did not piss away the wealth from its oil & gas revenues. This suggests it has some smarts, and might therefore be worth listening to for pointers in building an EV charging infrastructure.

[veeman]

90% of new cars sold here in Norway are EVs. Works fine. Charging stations are popping up everywhere.

I saw a gas station a while ago where the front row of gas pumps was replaced with chargers.

Nine years ago there was hardly any EVs around

That's fantastic govt sponsored policy which has made it happen.  Unfortunately there are many barriers to that success in the U.S. compared with Norway.  In no particular order (many of which others have mentioned):

1) U.S. has higher population density and less home ownership rate

2) U.S. has lower per capita income

3) U.S. has average longer commute distances to work

4) U.S. pegs it's economic index of health to the price of a gallon of gasoline.  When the price of a gallon of regular grade gasoline goes higher on average nationwide than $5, measures are taken to try to reduce it (such as releasing home reserves, making presidential trips to Saudi Arabia, eliminating gas taxes, etc).  Because of this, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. will always be much lower than the equivalent amount in Norway which means there is always going to be less economic incentive for an individual to get rid of their ICE car.

5) Norwegians, on average, trust their govt more than Americans trust their govt.  The U.S. is much more divided politically than is Norway.

6) U.S. politics is more heavily influenced by special interests (such as big oil companies).

7) Large faction of the U.S. population doubts human effects on climate change.

8) There is state control of a lot of U.S. infrastructure (like the electric grid) as opposed to national control.  California is very different than Texas. 

9) Federal agencies such as EPA and NHTSA are under the control of the executive branch of the govt.  Depending on which party is in control of the Presidency, these agencies will change their decision making.  If the GOP gains the Presidency in the next term, EV mandates will likely change and be more friendly towards ICE.

[Eye of the Tiger]

so you're saying, I should move to Norway

[veeman]

so you're saying, I should move to Norway

I think it's hard to get a job in Norway if you're an American. 

https://www.lifeinnorway.net/move-to-norway-from-usa/

Maybe you can apply for asylum?  Say you are escaping sucky Americans.

[Eye of the Tiger]

I think it's hard to get a job in Norway if you're an American. 

https://www.lifeinnorway.net/move-to-norway-from-usa/

Maybe you can apply for asylum?  Say you are escaping sucky Americans.

I could be a minority. Do they have affirmative action?

[Morris Minor]

I think it's hard to get a job in Norway if you're an American. 

https://www.lifeinnorway.net/move-to-norway-from-usa/

Maybe you can apply for asylum?  Say you are escaping sucky Americans.

This made me .  You make some good points btw. I'm going to Norway next month. Will report back.

[r0tor]

so you're saying, I should move to Norway

That was my conclusion

[Morris Minor]

I could be a minority. Do they have affirmative action?

You'd have to park in the Affirmative Action Hires section. They're usually at least a five minute walk from employee entrances, so there's your leg pain issue to consider.