Tesla

Started by SJ_GTI, February 23, 2017, 07:11:02 AM

Rich

Quote from: giant_mtb on May 17, 2022, 07:23:58 PM
No shit there're more traffic deaths now than in 2020. Remember that whole Covid thing where everywhere was shut down and you only drove or travelled if you needed to?

2019: 36,355 traffic deaths
2020: 38,824 traffic deaths
2021: 42,915 traffic deaths
2003 Mazda Miata 5MT; 2005 Subaru Impreza Outback Sport 4AT

Laconian

Quote from: Morris Minor on May 17, 2022, 06:32:35 PM
Because the FUDsters and trash media are calling the shots. One person in a million dying because of a fault in an AV is important. 1,000 deaths caused by human drivers will not make it into to trash news.

Also AVs still require a human watching brief to intervene & correct if needed. This requires zero engagement 99.99% of the time, is deadly boring, & inattention reigns. Humans playing on phones or napping get killed in the 0.01% edge case AV fuckup.

No other car company's AI systems can get you from San Jose to Marin County with zero interventions. But Tesla is still fucked by the 0.01% edge cases that will be used to crucify it. They need to get to 100%.

99.99%? We've have seen enough clips of egregious FSD drunkenness when people are _intentionally_ filming to know that there is probably a whole world of FSD fuckery going on that didn't get filmed.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

MrH

99.99% is good enough?  So once out of 1,000 times you get in the car, you crash?  That's an acceptable standard? :wtf:

So once every two years, you crash going to and from work every day.

FSD is no where near close to being an acceptable product to roll out to customers.  They will eventually shut it down.
2023 Ford Lightning Lariat ER
2019 Acura RDX SH-AWD
2023 BRZ Limited

Previous: '02 Mazda Protege5, '08 Mazda Miata, '05 Toyota Tacoma, '09 Honda Element, '13 Subaru BRZ, '14 Hyundai Genesis R-Spec 5.0, '15 Toyota 4Runner SR5, '18 Honda Accord EX-L 2.0t, '01 Honda S2000, '20 Subaru Outback XT, '23 Chevy Bolt EUV

NomisR

Quote from: MrH on May 19, 2022, 11:28:41 AM
99.99% is good enough?  So once out of 1,000 times you get in the car, you crash?  That's an acceptable standard? :wtf:

So once every two years, you crash going to and from work every day.

FSD is no where near close to being an acceptable product to roll out to customers.  They will eventually shut it down.

It will never be out of "beta" because it will never be what they call it..

Morris Minor

Quote from: MrH on May 19, 2022, 11:28:41 AM
99.99% is good enough?  So once out of 1,000 times you get in the car, you crash?  That's an acceptable standard? :wtf:

So once every two years, you crash going to and from work every day.

FSD is no where near close to being an acceptable product to roll out to customers.  They will eventually shut it down.
Hmm did I say 99.99% was acceptable? "Zero action" then. Engagement was a poor word choice in this context. My point is that if you have an important task, where the chance of any action or attention being required on your part is infinitely remote, you are likely to fail when the unthinkable happens.
My point remains that it's not good enough for FSD, or any other autonomous system, to provably and significantly kill & maim fewer people than human drivers.
As for the FSD beta... it keeps getting better. Whether it ever achieves the needed competence margin over humans is impossible to predict.  And you're right it will probably be banned anyway, whatever its value.
⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

NomisR

Quote from: Morris Minor on May 19, 2022, 12:37:32 PM
Hmm did I say 99.99% was acceptable? "Zero action" then. Engagement was a poor word choice in this context. My point is that if you have an important task, where the chance of any action or attention being required on your part is infinitely remote, you are likely to fail when the unthinkable happens.
My point remains that it's not good enough for FSD, or any other autonomous system, to provably and significantly kill & maim fewer people than human drivers.
As for the FSD beta... it keeps getting better. Whether it ever achieves the needed competence margin over humans is impossible to predict.  And you're right it will probably be banned anyway, whatever its value.


Will it though?  They'll probably do more and more to restrict it's usage as to avoid this from happening since it's a selling point and and plenty of idiots would pay for it.

MrH

Quote from: Morris Minor on May 19, 2022, 12:37:32 PM
Hmm did I say 99.99% was acceptable? "Zero action" then. Engagement was a poor word choice in this context. My point is that if you have an important task, where the chance of any action or attention being required on your part is infinitely remote, you are likely to fail when the unthinkable happens.
My point remains that it's not good enough for FSD, or any other autonomous system, to provably and significantly kill & maim fewer people than human drivers.
As for the FSD beta... it keeps getting better. Whether it ever achieves the needed competence margin over humans is impossible to predict.  And you're right it will probably be banned anyway, whatever its value.


Maybe I just misunderstood your intent.  My apologies.  I think talking about this is in terms of percentile isn't a good metric.  It's meaningless.  Is that percent of miles without a disengagement?  Percent of trips?  Percent of milliseconds?

Miles per disengagement is much much more meaningful.  In that case, Tesla is exponentially worse than all the other AV companies chasing this right now.  It's silly to think FSD will ever get there.  The inputs are insufficient.
2023 Ford Lightning Lariat ER
2019 Acura RDX SH-AWD
2023 BRZ Limited

Previous: '02 Mazda Protege5, '08 Mazda Miata, '05 Toyota Tacoma, '09 Honda Element, '13 Subaru BRZ, '14 Hyundai Genesis R-Spec 5.0, '15 Toyota 4Runner SR5, '18 Honda Accord EX-L 2.0t, '01 Honda S2000, '20 Subaru Outback XT, '23 Chevy Bolt EUV

Laconian

Wow. The battery swap station was doomed to fail but it succeeded wildly at getting California to open its wallet twice as wide.

https://dailykanban.com/2015/05/27/analysis-understanding-teslas-potemkin-swap-station/


Musk's recent pooh-poohing of government subsidies smells of such bullshit..
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

r0tor

Quote from: MrH on May 19, 2022, 12:44:10 PM
Maybe I just misunderstood your intent.  My apologies.  I think talking about this is in terms of percentile isn't a good metric.  It's meaningless.  Is that percent of miles without a disengagement?  Percent of trips?  Percent of milliseconds?

Miles per disengagement is much much more meaningful.  In that case, Tesla is exponentially worse than all the other AV companies chasing this right now.  It's silly to think FSD will ever get there.  The inputs are insufficient.

If you want to judge miles per engagement, then all the cars need to be put in the same set of circumstances
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

FoMoJo

Quote from: MrH on May 19, 2022, 11:28:41 AM
99.99% is good enough?  So once out of 1,000 times you get in the car, you crash?  That's an acceptable standard? :wtf:

So once every two years, you crash going to and from work every day.

FSD is no where near close to being an acceptable product to roll out to customers.  They will eventually shut it down.
That would be once out of 10,000 times or roughly 20 years going to work and back, counting 2 trips per work day.  Slightly better than average.
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once." ~ Albert Einstein
"As the saying goes, when you mix science and politics, you get politics."

Morris Minor

#4990
It looks like the Austin-made Ys are being delivered with 4680 batteries: 279 mile range from a 50 kWh pack. Allegedly. Rumors.
We'll see.
⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

Laconian

https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1535753166880444416

Wow. It looks like Autopilot has a habit of disengaging a secomd before impact, thereby shifting blame from FSD to the driver.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

Morris Minor

Quote from: Laconian on June 15, 2022, 12:13:39 AM
https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1535753166880444416

Wow. It looks like Autopilot has a habit of disengaging a secomd before impact, thereby shifting blame from FSD to the driver.
Tesla includes in its crash statistics those where disengagements were five or fewer seconds before impact.
⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

r0tor

Moving vehicles tend to crash when nobody is driving
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

MrH

Quote from: Morris Minor on June 15, 2022, 05:38:13 AM
Tesla includes in its crash statistics those where disengagements were five or fewer seconds before impact.

That wasn't always true.  They changed their tune later.  They were definitely disengaging autopilot right before impact and not counting it.

NHTSA just released data.  For automated driving crashes, Tesla accounts for 273 of 367 crashes in just over 10 months, across all OEMs.
2023 Ford Lightning Lariat ER
2019 Acura RDX SH-AWD
2023 BRZ Limited

Previous: '02 Mazda Protege5, '08 Mazda Miata, '05 Toyota Tacoma, '09 Honda Element, '13 Subaru BRZ, '14 Hyundai Genesis R-Spec 5.0, '15 Toyota 4Runner SR5, '18 Honda Accord EX-L 2.0t, '01 Honda S2000, '20 Subaru Outback XT, '23 Chevy Bolt EUV

RomanChariot

The question in my mind is whether the car is programmed to disengage autopilot before impact or if this is a case of drivers realizing at the last second that the car is about to crash and grab the wheel or hit the brakes and thus disengage autopilot.

giant_mtb

Quote from: r0tor on June 15, 2022, 08:18:13 AM
Moving vehicles tend to crash when nobody is driving

But...I thought FSD was supposed to allow you to not...drive....




Rich

Quote from: MrH on June 15, 2022, 08:26:35 AM
NHTSA just released data.  For automated driving crashes, Tesla accounts for 273 of 367 crashes in just over 10 months, across all OEMs.

I'd not have a problem with this if employees were in the drivers seats and people were paying for this software
2003 Mazda Miata 5MT; 2005 Subaru Impreza Outback Sport 4AT

r0tor

Quote from: giant_mtb on June 15, 2022, 09:22:32 AM
But...I thought FSD was supposed to allow you to not...drive....





Until it tells you it's no longer driving and the human needs to take control?
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

r0tor

#4999
Quote from: MrH on June 15, 2022, 08:26:35 AM
That wasn't always true.  They changed their tune later.  They were definitely disengaging autopilot right before impact and not counting it.

NHTSA just released data.  For automated driving crashes, Tesla accounts for 273 of 367 crashes in just over 10 months, across all OEMs.

What's the sales ratio on the street?  How many manufacturers are even reporting?
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

giant_mtb

Quote from: r0tor on June 15, 2022, 04:58:12 PM
Until it tells you it's no longer driving and the human needs to take control?

So it's not FSD.  :rastaman:

r0tor

Quote from: giant_mtb on June 15, 2022, 05:18:30 PM
So it's not FSD.  :rastaman:

I guess neither is "autopilot" then in the aviation industry
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

giant_mtb

Quote from: r0tor on June 15, 2022, 06:49:56 PM
I guess neither is "autopilot" then in the aviation industry

Right.  And in the aviation industry, it's well known and established that "autopilot" is not for take-offs and landings (though autopilot can land a plane depending on the plane/situation).  Meanwhile, it is not well known and established that "full self driving" means that your car may simply not see something and slam you into the back of a semi truck before you react properly because, well, the car was supposed to have FSD and figure that shit out itself.

r0tor

It's pretty well known the driver is supposed to be still paying attention with FSD

Weigher or not the driver chooses to pay attention is pretty much no different then drivers not paying attention to a whole host of traffic laws
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

Morris Minor

Model 3 cracks the world top-10 sellers list:
Surprised to see so many sedans in there... (and I want a "Wildlander")


More..
https://fiatgroupworld.com/2022/06/13/the-tesla-model-3-hits-global-top-10-best-selling-cars-in-2021-full-ranking/

⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

Morris Minor

Q2 numbers due out tomorrow. Production numbers will be rough because of Shanghai (Chinese Lockdown Syndrome.)
Non-GAAP earnings/share consensus: $1.77
Automotive Gross Margin consensus: 26.2%

(excl regulatory credits)

No mention will be made of the cognitive dissonance of whining about Twitter censorship while simultaneously doing business with CN. Maybe it's just me being old and grumpy.

⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

Morris Minor

#5006
Quote from: Morris Minor on July 19, 2022, 03:45:47 PM
Q2 numbers due out tomorrow. Production numbers will be rough because of Shanghai (Chinese Lockdown Syndrome.)
Non-GAAP earnings/share consensus: $1.77
Automotive Gross Margin consensus: 26.2%

(excl regulatory credits)

No mention will be made of the cognitive dissonance of whining about Twitter censorship while simultaneously doing business with CN. Maybe it's just me being old and grumpy.
Edit - thinking their Bitcoin impairment charge will be a drag on the numbers.
⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

Morris Minor

Quote from: Morris Minor on July 19, 2022, 03:45:47 PM
Q2 numbers due out tomorrow. Production numbers will be rough because of Shanghai (Chinese Lockdown Syndrome.)
Non-GAAP earnings/share consensus: $1.77
Automotive Gross Margin consensus: 26.2%

(excl regulatory credits)

No mention will be made of the cognitive dissonance of whining about Twitter censorship while simultaneously doing business with CN. Maybe it's just me being old and grumpy.

Non-GAAP earnings/share: $2.27
Automotive Gross Margin: 27.9% (-0.46% vs Q2 2021)
⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

Laconian

How's their Dogecoin forex operation? Elon believes in memes.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

MrH

Is Bitcoin and Doge just really sad vehicles to try and get money out of China?  Are the CCP really that dumb?
2023 Ford Lightning Lariat ER
2019 Acura RDX SH-AWD
2023 BRZ Limited

Previous: '02 Mazda Protege5, '08 Mazda Miata, '05 Toyota Tacoma, '09 Honda Element, '13 Subaru BRZ, '14 Hyundai Genesis R-Spec 5.0, '15 Toyota 4Runner SR5, '18 Honda Accord EX-L 2.0t, '01 Honda S2000, '20 Subaru Outback XT, '23 Chevy Bolt EUV