Poll
Question:
We're just starting with EVs. How long until they'll be developed enough for you?
Option 1: We're already there. I'd go for one.
votes: 6
Option 2: By 2023-5
votes: 2
Option 3: By 2026-9
votes: 2
Option 4: 2030 or beyond
votes: 3
Option 5: I'd never willingly have one.
votes: 0
As a connoisseur of the automotive arts, when do you consider that EVs will be ready for you to indulge?
I think the tech is fine for me, just need a car in the right format. My tastes tend towards the niche segments. If I wanted a midsize sedan the Model 3 would be fine for me, the Model Y or ID.4 would be fine as a midsize CUV, and the upcoming F150 Lightning would be perfect as a truck.
My hope/expectation is that as more EVs are introduced they will move into the more niche segments.
For a 2+ car household, the current offerings are "already there". For single car households, might be best to wait until like 2023-2025
I'm betting on 20+ years. It's already been ~10 years, and still not there by a notable margin. I think it'll take another ~10 years to get parity in both range (legit 350 miles) and wide availability of 10-15 minute "refueling" (which will require 800-1000V) but they'll still be $80-100k vehicles. I'm calling another ~10 years after that before said paribus EV equivalent in all manner of being to a Civic or Camry. Yes, ~20 years is a long time which in effect means either it's not going to happen, or happen only via a TBD technology that would effectively be considered magic in 2021 (Clarke's 3rd Law!). I think there is the distinct possibility that WtP realize that the environmental advantage, all in (conversion of infrastructure, more robust/capable power grid, that much more electronics manufacturing and mining wrecking ever more 3rd World countries), is very minor if not zero (plus expensive and tenuous with the rise of China and likely other world actors) vs. ICE counterparts.
A lot can happen in ~20 years. Let's wind the clock back to summer 2001. LOTS has happened since then!
I'm ready, but have 3 cars working fine and don't need the expense. But if Subaru needs replacement, I'd go for a volt or bolt or whatever.
I've got two cars.
One doubles as wife's car and long distance family cruiser. For that car,
I don't think I'll be ready for an EV for 15 - 20 years. I want to be able to get full charge in 15 minutes or less at ubiquitous charging stations. That's not happening for a while I think.
The other car is my daily driver for my daily 100 mile commute (50 miles each way). I enjoy driving a manual transmission for that. I'll be ready for an EV in 5 - 10 years I think (good price used Teslas should be plenty available by then).
2030 and beyond.
Right now EVs don't suite my driving profile. Low range made even lower once you go over a pathetically slow 120 km/h on the Autobahn and long charging times. Plus, the questionable life-durability of the battery makes me hesitate to get one.
Once EVs offer a stable range that doesn't drop like a rock off a cliff when you drive a little faster and can be fully charged in under 5 minutes, then and only then would I consider one. Plus, once the eco-whacko governments of the EU begin banning ICE cars, then you basically have no choice...
I went for 2023-5. But, again, this is for my circumstances. I have a two-car garage and so will hedge, retaining an ICE car alongside an EV. I could see getting a revised Model Y that has the 4680 battery array and the single-piece front & rear subframes.
2021 is to EVs as 1912 was to ICEs.
Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57253947)
I agree.
Quote from: FoMoJo on June 02, 2021, 08:33:59 AM
Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57253947)
I agree.
Good article - thanks for the link.
My son needed to upgrade the electrical service & modernize the wiring in his 1950s house. Although his finances don't yet run to an EV, he had the electricians install a charge receptacle in the garage. It was a no-brainer.
Quote from: FoMoJo on June 02, 2021, 08:33:59 AM
Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57253947)
I agree.
If it's so close (and so obviously a good idea), why do governments need to carry on with such drastic action ~10 years later - (renewed) purchase tax credits, subsidies, wholesale bans on sales of ICE vehicles?
I voted the end of this decade. I could live with one now but I refuse to give Tesla any money and there aren't any compelling sedan like offerings to replace my TLX under $40K or so. Something like a dual motor Camry or Civic would be cool.
Wifey has a Sienna now with the 2nd kiddo so ideally we'd like to move to something like a Highlander EV once that's done. Again I don't see that happening for a while, but def within the next decade. Main thing aside from availability on that will be charging- we do a lot of AirBnBs and haven't seen any L2 chargers. Would feel a lot more comfortable moving to an EV once those become more prevalent as that's pretty much all the long distance driving we do
What is your beef with Tesla?
A friend just got the new Rav4 EV. Has good EV-only range, but it sounds like my toddlers hot-wheels vehicle at low speeds.
My only other gripe (which is shared with the Highlander) is the MASSIVE plastic tablet-slab that houses the nav, and the tiny nav screen in the middle. It has the screen-bezel ratio similar to the Macintosh Portable.
I don't like Elon Musk
One good thing about Tesla is that they don't have collusive scum networks of shady dealer franchises that bribe state legislatures to protect their rackets.
No torturing & scamming of buyers. What a novel fucking concept.
Quote from: Submariner on June 05, 2021, 07:10:20 AM
...Macintosh Portable.
Now that's a lot of plastic. At least the batteries aren't lead acid like the Portable.
Quote from: Laconian on June 05, 2021, 12:57:49 PM
Now that's a lot of plastic. At least the batteries aren't lead acid like the Portable.
But the UI is horrendous. Looks 15 years old. Relatively easy to use I guess, but car play is hit or miss in terms of connectivity.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on June 05, 2021, 07:38:09 AM
I don't like Elon Musk
Is he worse than any number of scumbag car corporations?
Quote from: Submariner on June 05, 2021, 03:45:38 PM
Is he worse than any number of scumbag car corporations?
Infinitely worse.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on June 04, 2021, 07:10:39 PM
I voted the end of this decade. I could live with one now but I refuse to give Tesla any money and there aren't any compelling sedan like offerings to replace my TLX under $40K or so. Something like a dual motor Camry or Civic would be cool.
Wifey has a Sienna now with the 2nd kiddo so ideally we'd like to move to something like a Highlander EV once that's done. Again I don't see that happening for a while, but def within the next decade. Main thing aside from availability on that will be charging- we do a lot of AirBnBs and haven't seen any L2 chargers. Would feel a lot more comfortable moving to an EV once those become more prevalent as that's pretty much all the long distance driving we do
Have you seen the new hybrid Sienna?? I wonder how the efficiency compares to Highlander??
Quote from: Submariner on June 05, 2021, 03:45:38 PM
Is he worse than any number of scumbag car corporations?
Company wise no.... I just find his whole personal brand (and associated stans) to be insufferable.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on June 05, 2021, 07:16:45 PM
Company wise no.... I just find his whole personal brand (and associated stans) to be insufferable.
That's fair, but his products are mostly class leading (I'd take a Taycan over a Model S though).
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on June 05, 2021, 06:19:51 PM
Have you seen the new hybrid Sienna?? I wonder how the efficiency compares to Highlander??
FWIW my brother and his wife just bought one of those. Traded in their Ford Explorer. I think my brother wanted to get a Subaru Ascender originally (he works for Subaru) but his wife wanted something more spacious. They seem to really like it so far.
Minivan life with kids is legit. Once the kids are a little bigger I think the smallest we can do is a roomy 3 row
Quote from: Submariner on June 05, 2021, 09:04:41 PM
That's fair, but his products are mostly class leading (I'd take a Taycan over a Model S though).
That's what makes it tough. There's nothing that comes close to the Model 3 for the money
I'd buy a F150 Lightening today even if it's a full size. I wish Toyota made a hybrid or electric Tacoma. That would check off all my boxes and be a reasonable size.
Quote from: MaxPower on June 06, 2021, 06:09:47 PM
I'd buy a F150 Lightening today even if it's a full size. I wish Toyota made a hybrid or electric Tacoma. That would check off all my boxes and be a reasonable size.
Ford is supposed to be releasing a mid sized pickup next year- I would be shocked if there wasn't an electric version.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on June 06, 2021, 04:08:48 PM
Minivan life with kids is legit. Once the kids are a little bigger I think the smallest we can do is a roomy 3 row
That's what makes it tough. There's nothing that comes close to the Model 3 for the money
Just ignore the fanboydom and Elonism
TM. I agree that it's obnoxious but I get where it's coming from. The dude built up the first legit EV car company in the world and revolutionized space travel with SpaceX...after he built and sold PayPal. Most people can't get a small business off of the ground. He revolutionized three industries. No one else in history has done that. Reminds me of that Bill Burr skit but Elon is way, way beyond even Arnold: https://www.lowes.com/pd/DEWALT-1-2-in-Corded-Hammer-Drill/50314841
I also don't like the interior or exterior of the Model 3. I just want a regular looking sedan/fastback that happens to be an EV
Yeah, I hear that. The big screen is nice, but some gauges above the steering wheel would be nice too. Some physical buttons would be nice too. I like minimalism but the Model 3 takes it to an extreme.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on June 06, 2021, 06:42:56 PM
Ford is supposed to be releasing a mid sized pickup next year- I would be shocked if there wasn't an electric version.
The Maverick? Supposed to be an official announcement this week.
Already there for most people's realistic use cases. Sorry, but most people are NOT doing weekly 600 mile road trips. Most people don't live in apartments or homes without off-street parking., either.
The new Lightning will cost less than an equivalent gas F150 even without the federal tax incentive (which most fleet operators will be able to take advantage of). My Bolt (and all the 2020 and 2021 versions) have been priced between $20-25k which is well within parity for any other 200 hp hatchback of it's size class (no, it's not a crossover, though the new EUV is). After living with mine for over a year, there's really no such thing as range anxiety as it's proven to me just how far 300 miles really is. May be taking it next week up to my son's house in CT (6 hours away with a normal car, 6.5 hours in the Bolt), unless the weather says that we could take the Roadster.
Quote from: GoCougs on June 02, 2021, 10:17:53 AM
If it's so close (and so obviously a good idea), why do governments need to carry on with such drastic action ~10 years later - (renewed) purchase tax credits, subsidies, wholesale bans on sales of ICE vehicles?
Because people (and corporations) are short sighted. Look at how they flock to gas guzzlers when the price of gas drops a buck only to turn around and scramble to sell when the gas price goes back up a buck... And corporations only look to the next quarter earnings, and not to long term issues. And add to that the massive amount of ignorance surrounding EVs and the pushback from oil companies and those that support them and yes, some incentives need to be put in place. Especilly with the subsidies and assistance given to oil companies and gasoline production in this country (who pays the bill for the US military making sure the oil tankers make it out of the middle east? The oil companies? Or you and I?)
Look at how rental companies sold off their rental fleets rather than suffer a few quarters of lower profits. :lol:
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on June 06, 2021, 08:01:03 PM
I also don't like the interior or exterior of the Model 3. I just want a regular looking sedan/fastback that happens to be an EV
So the upcoming BMW 3 series EV
Quote from: Submariner on June 06, 2021, 07:00:47 PM
Just ignore the fanboydom and ElonismTM. I agree that it's obnoxious but I get where it's coming from. The dude built up the first legit EV car company in the world and revolutionized space travel with SpaceX...after he built and sold PayPal. Most people can't get a small business off of the ground. He revolutionized three industries. No one else in history has done that. Reminds me of that Bill Burr skit but Elon is way, way beyond even Arnold: https://www.lowes.com/pd/DEWALT-1-2-in-Corded-Hammer-Drill/50314841
Oh no...
Quote from: CaminoRacer on June 07, 2021, 12:39:21 PM
So the upcoming BMW 3 series EV
That shit is like $70K and no faster than my TLX
Tesla Model S vs. E-Tron GT, Lucid Air, Mercedes EQS and Taycan: Luxury EVs compared (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/autos/news/tesla-model-s-vs-e-tron-gt-lucid-air-mercedes-eqs-and-taycan-luxury-evs-compared/ar-BB18SsDK?ocid=msedgdhp#image=BB18SsDK_5%7C2)
A whole lot of shots (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/autos/news/tesla-model-s-vs-e-tron-gt-lucid-air-mercedes-eqs-and-taycan-luxury-evs-compared/ar-BB18SsDK?ocid=msedgdhp&fullscreen=true#image=1)
The interior of the Mercedes is gorgeous,
(https://i.postimg.cc/Y0BqZMT4/BB1fH6rs.jpg)
but I'd take the Audi overall.
(https://i.postimg.cc/Pf1qZv81/AAKLGpr.jpg)
The Tesla looks kind of lame in comparison.
(https://i.postimg.cc/CLKW0WYd/BB1eQUpN.jpg)
Quote from: Soup DeVille on June 06, 2021, 06:42:56 PM
Ford is supposed to be releasing a mid sized pickup next year- I would be shocked if there wasn't an electric version.
Toyota has such a robust hybrid program I'm surprised they haven't done a hybrid Tacoma. Maybe truck consumers just really don't want it or the engine would have to be so big to accommodate truck things that it would be pointless.
The merc definately has the best interior of the bunch, but boy oh boy does the E-Tron/Tycan look good.
Quote from: Submariner on June 06, 2021, 07:00:47 PM
Just ignore the fanboydom and ElonismTM. I agree that it's obnoxious but I get where it's coming from. The dude built up the first legit EV car company in the world and revolutionized space travel with SpaceX...after he built and sold PayPal. Most people can't get a small business off of the ground. He revolutionized three industries. No one else in history has done that. Reminds me of that Bill Burr skit but Elon is way, way beyond even Arnold: https://www.lowes.com/pd/DEWALT-1-2-in-Corded-Hammer-Drill/50314841
What he's doing with Starlink is huge. Their first batch of satellites was launched two years ago - now there are nearly 1,800 up there, & the launch cadence just keeps picking up. What he's going to do with intra-satellite laser backhaul is really intriguing - a massive multi-shell spherical crossbar switching matrix. Even beta users are Starlink evangelists, with beta glitches & all, just like Tesla owners. Elon has incumbent ISPs shitting their pants already - so you know he's got a good heart.
Quote from: MaxPower on June 07, 2021, 06:11:27 PM
Toyota has such a robust hybrid program I'm surprised they haven't done a hybrid Tacoma. Maybe truck consumers just really don't want it or the engine would have to be so big to accommodate truck things that it would be pointless.
Trucks have a lot of room under the hood and LOTS of room under the bed. Smaller trucks need to be designed better but still lots of potential.
(See "Ford Maverick".)
Quote from: MrH on June 07, 2021, 04:05:01 PM
Oh no...
SpaceX is the biggest leap forward in launch tech since the R7.
He didn't build PayPal. He hasn't run a profitable business ever. He's the ultimate Subsidy Truffle Hound and fraudster. Sing it with me, MONORAIL!
(https://media2.giphy.com/media/3o6MbhrjeWM8SaMBNK/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47imiy5jrwqmvpykde95de27kzpsu7bg0krrki8h26&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)
SpaceX represents the biggest advancement in space travel since the R7. How is that not a monumental achievement?
What is a monumental achievement? You didn't list an achievement. You gave your opinion on the company.
* Landing reusable rockets neatly, ass first on the landing pad.
* Delivering satellite Internet that's as fast as anything terrestrial, with fees that aren't even an order of magnitude more expensive.
* Annihilating performance records set by $1m+ brands like Bugatti and Ferrari for a fraction of the price.
This is a funny discussion
Quote from: Laconian on June 10, 2021, 03:09:48 PM
* Landing reusable rockets neatly, ass first on the landing pad.
* Delivering satellite Internet that's as fast as anything terrestrial, with fees that aren't even an order of magnitude more expensive.
* Annihilating performance records set by $1m+ brands like Bugatti and Ferrari for a fraction of the price.
1. They landed rockets ass first on landing pads before. In the 90s. Cool trick? Yes, but does it provide anything more than that? The concept of reusable rockets being cheaper is dependent on a lot of factors. It's not a given that is always the best route.
2. ???? What? I just went to Starlink's website. They're quoted $500 in equipment, $100/month, for 50-150 mb/s. And in true Musk form, it says it will be available between mid and late 2021, but they're willing to take a deposit now :facepalm:. That's not remotely competitive compared to what you can get now. I get 500+ mb/sec for $100, with no setup or equipment fee. Oh, and they're filling the sky with endless space junk that no one has agreed to.
3. What performance records? 0-60? Something that Tesla can only do once or twice before needing time to cool down? Tesla has two advantages compared to other OEMs: an endless supply of capital from equity raises with no need to profitable due to its cult, and risk tolerance. That's it. They don't validate or follow any industry standard. You get batteries that are charged and discharged at rates that are damaging long term to the battery packs. Go give other OEMs the checkbook and cult that Tesla has, and you'll get a much better result.
What launch system has been operationally reusable? The only one I can think of was the STS and that was extraordinarily expensive and wasn't even that reusable (much of the orbiter had to be replaced after every launch for example).
Falcon offers two modes, partial and fully expendable. You trade total LEO payload for reusability, so to that end Falcon does provide flexibility in payload weight and cost. It also means there is shorter turnaround time between launches. There is no reason to think that current reusable modes won't be improved upon in the future, either.
If you want a quick example of costs, compare the Falcon 9 Heavy vs. the Delta IV Heavy, or even Atlas V or the upcoming Vulcan to the Falcon 9.
MrH doesn't know what he's talking about as usual.
Hey, MrH, what's the most successful business you've ever started and run? Or are you saying that Tesla doesn't actually build and sell cars, and SpaceX doesn't actually build and operate rockets? Fraud? I don't think you know what that word (or many others) means.
If starting and running a successful business is a prereq for discussing Elon Musk, what are your qualifications?
Or do you only need to be an expert to criticize him? His fans can be as clueless and ignorant as tree moss? I think that's what's called a "double standard"
Oh... You guys missed MrH shorting Tesla stock right before it's stock increasing a few hundred percent
Also not a fan of SpaceX, or the space programs in general (though I have to admit the history and intrigue of the history, esp. dating back to Operation Paperclip, is fascinating). Most of what the space program does is put shit in/near space in order to kill and spy on people, support useless stuff like the ISS, or the worst of the worst, send stuff and people to Mars. My prediction is the "reusable" (read: rebuild-able) stuff will go down about like the Space Shuttle (i.e., underperforms, too costly and too deadly). Nothing to see here that wasn't figured out 50+ years ago.
Quote from: r0tor on June 11, 2021, 06:42:45 AM
Oh... You guys missed MrH shorting Tesla stock right before it's stock increasing a few hundred percent
Now down ~30% and sliding...
Quote from: GoCougs on June 11, 2021, 07:05:10 AM
Now down ~30% and sliding...
He already lost his ass... and its still up 200% from a year ago
Quote from: r0tor on June 11, 2021, 07:11:27 AM
He already lost his ass... and its still up 200% from a year ago
Why do you care so much about someone else's finances, esp. if things went poorly?
Quote from: ChrisV on June 11, 2021, 05:34:08 AM
MrH doesn't know what he's talking about as usual.
Hey, MrH, what's the most successful business you've ever started and run? Or are you saying that Tesla doesn't actually build and sell cars, and SpaceX doesn't actually build and operate rockets? Fraud? I don't think you know what that word (or many others) means.
:facepalm: If starting a fraudulent business is the qualification to critique other fraudulent businesses, then sure, I'm not qualified to say anything.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on June 11, 2021, 06:26:39 AM
If starting and running a successful business is a prereq for discussing Elon Musk, what are your qualifications?
Or do you only need to be an expert to criticize him? His fans can be as clueless and ignorant as tree moss? I think that's what's called a "double standard"
Well, this was unexpected.
(https://i.imgur.com/1B7Nodk.jpg)
Quote from: r0tor on June 11, 2021, 07:11:27 AM
He already lost his ass... and its still up 200% from a year ago
Yes. Lost my ass. Totally in the poor house now. Next thing you know, I'll be hittin up my 401k to buy a car :lol:
Quote from: MrH on June 11, 2021, 07:17:46 AM
:facepalm: If starting a fraudulent business is the qualification to critique other fraudulent businesses, then sure, I'm not qualified to say anything.
Well, this was unexpected.
(https://i.imgur.com/1B7Nodk.jpg)
What is fraudulent about a business that produces successful products that have been on sale for a decade + (space X) or almost a decade (Tesla)?
Your measure of fraudulent behavior is whether the business exists for a decade?
Quote from: GoCougs on June 11, 2021, 07:15:46 AM
Why do you care so much about someone else's finances, esp. if things went poorly?
Explains his attitude about Tesla perhaps??
I think I've lost $1800 in total on Tesla options over the course of a couple of years? I haven't had a position in a long time with Tesla.
You're too financially illiterate to understand any of the points I've made in the past about them, so I'm not going to bother.
If you're going to call a business that is producing objectively successful (groundbreaking) products fraudulent you're going to need to provide some evidence. Plenty of Tesla/Space X haters have said the same thing for years (decades) and nothing has come of it.
Quote from: Submariner on June 11, 2021, 07:50:03 AM
If you're going to call a business that is producing objectively successful (groundbreaking) products fraudulent you're going to need to provide some evidence. Plenty of Tesla/Space X haters have said the same thing for years (decades) and nothing has come of it.
Sorry Sub, you haven't been around in awhile :lol:
We've gone in circles about a lot of theses topics. Here's a good place to start: https://elonmusk.today/
Some topics we can discuss:
- "Full self driving" & Robotaxis
- Solar City bail out
- The ballooning AR balance
- Revenue recognition changes
- Structurally unprofitable
- Insane valuations that make zero sense
:popcorn:
Quote from: MrH on June 10, 2021, 03:44:18 PM
3. What performance records? 0-60? Something that Tesla can only do once or twice before needing time to cool down?
He didn't mention anything about battery longevity, cool-down times, or subsidies. Quick is quick :huh:
Otherwise, carry on :golfclap:
Quote from: GoCougs on June 11, 2021, 07:15:46 AM
Why do you care so much about someone else's finances, esp. if things went poorly?
Don't be mistaken.... nobody cares
But dude's material interest in Tesla's failure provides some important context.... and there's def an emotional component as well. Tesla is basically an FU to the religion of the valuation he subscribes to, which was prob the main driver in deciding to take that short position
So IMO it's not reasonable to expect him to be objective about Tesla
I don't like Musk as a man.... his seed money came from his family's apartheid fortune and his whole good guy memelord persona is cringey AF. But going up against his growing army of fanboys is a no no
Quote from: Rich on June 11, 2021, 09:06:00 AM
:popcorn:
He didn't mention anything about battery longevity, cool-down times, or subsidies. Quick is quick :huh:
Otherwise, carry on :golfclap:
Fair enough. It's just a weird metric to point to that this company is successful and groundbreaking. If one time, 0-60 is the only thing that matters, and you can lose money doing it and the battery will degrade to shit, every OEM could accomplish this. To look at just one metric isolated is silly. Give Porsche the pocket book, the risk tolerance, and cult of Tesla, and people would be having aneurisms.
Anyways, Sub, watch this video are a primer. FSD was, and always has been a fraud. It's been lied about endlessly as a method to raise capital to keep the company afloat. All industry experts know it's total BS. The public just hasn't totally caught on.
https://youtu.be/PRKAH4d48Ic
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on June 11, 2021, 10:12:16 AM
Don't be mistaken.... nobody cares
But dude's material interest in Tesla's failure provides some important context.... and there's def an emotional component as well. Tesla is basically an FU to the religion of the valuation he subscribes to, which was prob the main driver in deciding to take that short position
So IMO it's not reasonable to expect him to be objective about Tesla
I don't like Musk as a man.... his seed money came from his family's apartheid fortune and his whole good guy memelord persona is cringey AF. But going up against his growing army of fanboys is a no no
I take bigger issue with the sheer arrogance and lack of morals of Elon than anything else. The valuation is one thing. It doesn't make any sense, but there are more companies than just Tesla with stupid valuations. It's the fraud that's carrying it there that I have a problem with.
Everyone has their "Elon Moment". Where Elon steps into your domain of expertise and says something, trying to sound knowledgeable. And then you realize he's absolutely, totally full of shit. I worked with Tesla as a tier 1 supplier for years with two different companies. It was just a shitty, poorly run company to me for a long time, but whatever. Didn't think much of it. Then when Elon went on about the Alien Dreadnaught. He was going to build the machine that makes the machine. That he was going to revolutionize manufacturing as we know it, and make the Toyota Production System obsolete. Assembly cells were just a knob you could turn up more and more, and run faster and faster. That's my realm. And none of that could be further from the truth in how it worked. And now, you can look into any topic he spouts off about, and subject matter experts lose their mind at how wrong it all is. Solar panels, neurolink, damn near anything automotive...he's a fraud. He's not an engineer. He's not Tony Stark. He is the furtherest thing from that. He's more akin to a salesman on QVC than any of those things.
SpaceX is an area I'm not nearly as familiar with. I don't follow space stuff nearly as closely, but it's hard to analyze being privately owned. There are no financials to dig into.
Tesla is just an interesting story. I think it will be the Enron of our generation. It's the culmination of so many things going on in society right now: a complete and total lack of market regulation and enforcement, a cult of personality, a social media experiment, derivative trading by the general population, society's desire for a new age of futurism.
I've heard those same talking points for at least a decade.
As for the video, I'll watch it later, but the visual comparison of Elizabeth Holmes and Elon Musk is laughable on it's face. Theranos never made a single viable product. Tesla and SpaceX have been making commercially successful vehicles for the better part of two decades.
You keep using that word "successful". What determines success for a business? Making products at a loss indefinitely isn't success IMO.
"Full Self Driving" is very, very much Elizabeth Holmes like.
Quote from: MrH on June 11, 2021, 12:04:43 PM
You keep using that word "successful". What determines success for a business? Making products at a loss indefinitely isn't success IMO.
"Full Self Driving" is very, very much Elizabeth Holmes like.
I mean, Tesla cars exist and are on the road. SpaceX has launched rockets, people, functioning satellites into space. You can debate the financial valuations, but they are actually there.
Theranos never actually made any successful product. For that comparison to work Tesla would have to be buying cars from Ford/GM and then rebadging them as Teslas and SpaceX would have to be paying Blue Origin or someone else to launch their stuff into space.
Tesla makes some things. Many of the things they've used as justification to raise money hasn't, and never will, exist. Full Self Driving is just as viable and real as the Theranos nanotainer.
If nothing else, the popularity of Tesla, among certain crowds, has pushed the major manufacturers into EVs, perhaps sooner than later.
Musk is a character and clever in his own way. He is the prima facie entrepreneur of the day like him or not.
Quote from: FoMoJo on June 11, 2021, 12:45:19 PM
If nothing else, the popularity of Tesla, among certain crowds, has pushed the major manufacturers into EVs, perhaps sooner than later.
Musk is a character and clever in his own way. He is the prima facie entrepreneur of the day like him or not.
Yet, 10 years later, ALL EV endeavors - Tesla, obviously Rivian/Lucid/Lordstown/etc., and established efforts (Bolt, etc.), are money losers.
Quote from: FoMoJo on June 11, 2021, 12:45:19 PM
If nothing else, the popularity of Tesla, among certain crowds, has pushed the major manufacturers into EVs, perhaps sooner than later.
Musk is a character and clever in his own way. He is the prima facie entrepreneur of the day like him or not.
It's a total misallocation of capital. Billions upon billions spent. We would have been much much better off with plug in hybrids.
Quote from: MrH on June 11, 2021, 01:17:42 PM
It's a total misallocation of capital. Billions upon billions spent. We would have been much much better off with plug in hybrids.
Speak for yourself. :lol:
I don't think I'd buy a hybrid unless there was literally no choice. I could easily see myself buying an EV...just need something in the niche space where I shop (relatively small/sporty).
Quote from: GoCougs on June 11, 2021, 12:58:11 PM
Yet, 10 years later, ALL EV endeavors - Tesla, obviously Rivian/Lucid/Lordstown/etc., and established efforts (Bolt, etc.), are money losers.
Quote from: MrH on June 11, 2021, 01:17:42 PM
It's a total misallocation of capital. Billions upon billions spent. We would have been much much better off with plug in hybrids.
It's all just a step along the way. Hybrids were/are a compromise until EVs were/are viable. Much to do with the infrastructure. As well, hydrogen is still viable for the future. It's a matter of replacing petroleum as a fuel. Much better uses for it than simply burning it.
Quote from: FoMoJo on June 11, 2021, 01:27:10 PM
It's all just a step along the way. Hybrids were/are a compromise until EVs were/are viable.
Hybrids are to EVs just as socialism is to communism.
(Half of CarSPIN:
TRIGGERED)
Quote from: MrH on June 11, 2021, 12:17:24 PM
Tesla makes some things. Many of the things they've used as justification to raise money hasn't, and never will, exist. Full Self Driving is just as viable and real as the Theranos nanotainer.
There was no evidence that Theranos ever made material progress in their claimed technology. Self driving tech has made enormous progress in the past 20 years. It's not "self-driving" yet, but there is nothing to indicate that it will not reach that point. And that's still subordinate to the main "claim" of EV's that can compete with ICE vehicles, and launch vehicles that can out compete their well established peers (Boeing, ULA, etc).
SpaceX has objectively and tremendously lowered the per-KG cost to LEO, GEO, GTO, TLI, etc. You simply cannot argue otherwise. Tesla builds and sells numerous EV's that actually work (especially considering how much less investment there was in EV's relative to ICE cars prior to Tesla) and sell well. You simply cannot argue otherwise.
Quote from: FoMoJo on June 11, 2021, 01:27:10 PM
It's all just a step along the way. Hybrids were/are a compromise until EVs were/are viable. Much to do with the infrastructure. As well, hydrogen is still viable for the future. It's a matter of replacing petroleum as a fuel. Much better uses for it than simply burning it.
~20 years on and people only buy Toyota hybrids - literally all others flopped, despite some being just as good (1st gen Ford Fusion Hybrid, Chevy Volt). Turns out that $20k Civic is a pretty damn good deal all things considered, including environmental impact.
The environmental solution is on the demand side. WtP need to stop buying full-size pickups. WtP need to stop flying so much. WtP need to stop living in too-large houses. WtP need to stop buying so much useless stuff on Amazon. (Of course, all that is possible with the American Dream (consumer debt)).
EVs are just a rain dance, and only stand to suborn continued environmental excesses.
Quote from: Laconian on June 11, 2021, 02:09:56 PM
Hybrids are to EVs just as socialism is to communism.
(Half of CarSPIN: TRIGGERED)
I mean, you're not wrong wrong...
Quote from: MrH on June 10, 2021, 03:44:18 PM
1. They landed rockets ass first on landing pads before. In the 90s. Cool trick? Yes, but does it provide anything more than that? The concept of reusable rockets being cheaper is dependent on a lot of factors. It's not a given that is always the best route.
2. ???? What? I just went to Starlink's website. They're quoted $500 in equipment, $100/month, for 50-150 mb/s. And in true Musk form, it says it will be available between mid and late 2021, but they're willing to take a deposit now :facepalm: . That's not remotely competitive compared to what you can get now. I get 500+ mb/sec for $100, with no setup or equipment fee. Oh, and they're filling the sky with endless space junk that no one has agreed to.
3. What performance records? 0-60? Something that Tesla can only do once or twice before needing time to cool down? Tesla has two advantages compared to other OEMs: an endless supply of capital from equity raises with no need to profitable due to its cult, and risk tolerance. That's it. They don't validate or follow any industry standard. You get batteries that are charged and discharged at rates that are damaging long term to the battery packs. Go give other OEMs the checkbook and cult that Tesla has, and you'll get a much better result.
Wow.
Quote from: MrH on June 10, 2021, 03:44:18 PM
1. They landed rockets ass first on landing pads before. In the 90s. Cool trick? Yes, but does it provide anything more than that? The concept of reusable rockets being cheaper is dependent on a lot of factors. It's not a given that is always the best route.
In 2018 SpaceX had 65% of the global commercial market share for satellite launches, primarily since they are cheaper. The previous commercial launch champion was the european Ariane 4 rocket, it has been dethroned. Even the new Ariane 5 rocket is not able to match SpaceX for price, it currently has zero commercial launches scheduled, only european government launches. Ariane 6 will be reusable but that is a 2030+ rocket. Space X has a lead of more than a decade
Quote
2. ???? What? I just went to Starlink's website. They're quoted $500 in equipment, $100/month, for 50-150 mb/s. And in true Musk form, it says it will be available between mid and late 2021, but they're willing to take a deposit now :facepalm:. That's not remotely competitive compared to what you can get now. I get 500+ mb/sec for $100, with no setup or equipment fee. Oh, and they're filling the sky with endless space junk that no one has agreed to.
Starlink is not intended to replace coax or fiber optic internet. It is for remote areas, and ships, yachts etc.
For comparison this is what satellite internet currently costs:
https://satellitephonestore.com/fleetbroadband-service
Inmarsat charges $7,499 per month for 40GB. And this is for service with a very high latency. To get "streaming quality" low latency they charge $36 per minute for 256Kbps, and the equipment to utilize that costs $5000. This is the internet that super yachts and military vessels currently use.
Starlink is going to put them out of business.
Those are all fake numbers bro. Totally made up. Not real. Elon doesn't even exist. He is a hologram made from an already existing projector and marijuana smoke.
That's a very niche market, but it sounds like starlink soundly beats the current stuff. It's hard to analyze whether that's a good business model or not, being private and backed by Musk.
If you guys could actually bring something to the discussion, that'd be great. Literally any Tesla topic or financial numbers would be great. Starlink and SpaceX could be the most profitable companies ever or hemorrhaging cash. There's no way to tell
We already did. Space X is dominating the commercial launch market.
Quote from: MrH on June 11, 2021, 07:15:53 PM
That's a very niche market, but it sounds like starlink soundly beats the current stuff.
But that is the beauty of Starlink, it takes what is a market for billionaires, and governments, and makes it affordable to most people. One can take a sailboat anchor it of a tropical island in French Polynesia, spend the day doing work, and then when you are done you jump off the boat and go fishing with the tropical fish.
+1, the yachting community is insanely excited about Starlink.
Quote from: MrH on June 11, 2021, 07:15:53 PM
That's a very niche market, but it sounds like starlink soundly beats the current stuff. It's hard to analyze whether that's a good business model or not, being private and backed by Musk.
If you guys could actually bring something to the discussion, that'd be great. Literally any Tesla topic or financial numbers would be great. Starlink and SpaceX could be the most profitable companies ever or hemorrhaging cash. There's no way to tell
Take the surface area of Earth.
Subtract from it that area that has non-urban/suburban population densities.
1) Calculate the population of the result.
2) Now add every vehicle that moves on the land, on the sea, & in the air.
Estimate the market demand of 1) & 2) for low-latency, high bandwidth internet access or, failing that, for any internet access at all. The result is Starlink's potential market.
Quote from: Galaxy on June 11, 2021, 08:04:10 PM
But that is the beauty of Starlink, it takes what is a market for billionaires, and governments, and makes it affordable to most people. One can take a sailboat anchor it of a tropical island in French Polynesia, spend the day doing work, and then when you are done you jump off the boat and go fishing with the tropical fish.
So then who controls this global infrastructure - from rates to censorship to access? Short term sounds attractive but what this begets is global regulation via some global cabal such as the UN or WTO or whatever. Global government is coming for sure, but this could speed that horror show up.
Quote from: GoCougs on June 12, 2021, 11:38:38 AM
So then who controls this global infrastructure - from rates to censorship to access? Short term sounds attractive but what this begets is global regulation via some global cabal such as the UN or WTO or whatever. Global government is coming for sure, but this could speed that horror show up.
You are right. Starlink's biggest challenge is not technical. There are massive geopolitical regulatory obstacles: licensing/permitting, taxation, censorship.
Incumbents are already litigating, & lobbying governments to block Starlink. Another strike against it is that is is American.
Quote from: GoCougs on June 12, 2021, 11:38:38 AM
So then who controls this global infrastructure - from rates to censorship to access? Short term sounds attractive but what this begets is global regulation via some global cabal such as the UN or WTO or whatever. Global government is coming for sure, but this could speed that horror show up.
For the users, it is their individual country. So, for american consumers it would be the FCC. For yachts it would be the flag country. Note: you do have to obey certain rules of the countries whose waters you are sailing in. India for example does not allow satellite phones for private individuals.
For the ground based infrastructure it would also be the country that the stations are in. Starlink is already conducting town hall meetings in France, since that is where some ground stations are supposed to be.
As for the satellites themselves, the radio frequencies are assigned by the International Telecommunication Agency, which is a UN Agency, the orbits themselves are not regulated globally. Yet . You are required to inform the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs of what the orbit will be. Individual countries are obligated to ensure their space users do not insert objects on a collision course. The USA has fined companies for putting sats on orbits it views as dangerous.
You are not going to like it, but I do think we are going to need a space traffic control. Sooner rather then later. Starlink is putting 40,000 sats into orbit, Microsoft wants to put 40,000 into orbit, the chinese as well. This is going to end badly if users do not have an assigned orbit. The cascade effect from the movie Gravity is a real concern.
Funny how often we all fall to the classic internet blunder- arguing with nonsense. :lol:
SpaceX is planning on using Starship to launch Starlink satellites, so 400 at a time rather than Falcon 9's 60.
Quote from: Galaxy on June 12, 2021, 04:45:10 PM
For the users, it is their individual country. So, for american consumers it would be the FCC. For yachts it would be the flag country. Note: you do have to obey certain rules of the countries whose waters you are sailing in. India for example does not allow satellite phones for private individuals.
For the ground based infrastructure it would also be the country that the stations are in. Starlink is already conducting town hall meetings in France, since that is where some ground stations are supposed to be.
As for the satellites themselves, the radio frequencies are assigned by the International Telecommunication Agency, which is a UN Agency, the orbits themselves are not regulated globally. Yet . You are required to inform the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs of what the orbit will be. Individual countries are obligated to ensure their space users do not insert objects on a collision course. The USA has fined companies for putting sats on orbits it views as dangerous.
You are not going to like it, but I do think we are going to need a space traffic control. Sooner rather then later. Starlink is putting 40,000 sats into orbit, Microsoft wants to put 40,000 into orbit, the chinese as well. This is going to end badly if users do not have an assigned orbit. The cascade effect from the movie Gravity is a real concern.
Don't forget project Kuiper (Amazon).
So roll forward five years. Assume autonomy is working.
Would you put put your autonomy-capable EV into a fleet available for driverless ride-hailing?
I write this after doing the math and realising that my G37 accumulated less that 4,000 miles over the last year. It spends 99% of the time in the garage, normal costs: depreciation, servicing & insurance.
When are we getting solid state batteries?