When will EVs be Ready for You?

[MrH]

I think I've lost $1800 in total on Tesla options over the course of a couple of years?  I haven't had a position in a long time with Tesla.

You're too financially illiterate to understand any of the points I've made in the past about them, so I'm not going to bother.

[Submariner]

If you're going to call a business that is producing objectively successful (groundbreaking) products fraudulent you're going to need to provide some evidence.  Plenty of Tesla/Space X haters have said the same thing for years (decades) and nothing has come of it.

[MrH]

If you're going to call a business that is producing objectively successful (groundbreaking) products fraudulent you're going to need to provide some evidence.  Plenty of Tesla/Space X haters have said the same thing for years (decades) and nothing has come of it.

Sorry Sub, you haven't been around in awhile

We've gone in circles about a lot of theses topics.  Here's a good place to start: https://elonmusk.today/

Some topics we can discuss:
- "Full self driving" & Robotaxis
- Solar City bail out
- The ballooning AR balance
- Revenue recognition changes
- Structurally unprofitable
- Insane valuations that make zero sense

[Rich]

 

3.  What performance records?  0-60?  Something that Tesla can only do once or twice before needing time to cool down?

He didn't mention anything about battery longevity, cool-down times, or subsidies.  Quick is quick 

Otherwise, carry on 

[12,000 RPM]

Why do you care so much about someone else's finances, esp. if things went poorly?

Don't be mistaken.... nobody cares

But dude's material interest in Tesla's failure provides some important context.... and there's def an emotional component as well. Tesla is basically an FU to the religion of the valuation he subscribes to, which was prob the main driver in deciding to take that short position

So IMO it's not reasonable to expect him to be objective about Tesla

I don't like Musk as a man.... his seed money came from his family's apartheid fortune and his whole good guy memelord persona is cringey AF. But going up against his growing army of fanboys is a no no

[MrH]

He didn't mention anything about battery longevity, cool-down times, or subsidies.  Quick is quick 

Otherwise, carry on 

Fair enough.  It's just a weird metric to point to that this company is successful and groundbreaking.  If one time, 0-60 is the only thing that matters, and you can lose money doing it and the battery will degrade to shit, every OEM could accomplish this.  To look at just one metric isolated is silly.  Give Porsche the pocket book, the risk tolerance, and cult of Tesla, and people would be having aneurisms.

[MrH]

Anyways, Sub, watch this video are a primer.  FSD was, and always has been a fraud.  It's been lied about endlessly as a method to raise capital to keep the company afloat.  All industry experts know it's total BS.  The public just hasn't totally caught on.

https://youtu.be/PRKAH4d48Ic

[MrH]

Don't be mistaken.... nobody cares

But dude's material interest in Tesla's failure provides some important context.... and there's def an emotional component as well. Tesla is basically an FU to the religion of the valuation he subscribes to, which was prob the main driver in deciding to take that short position

So IMO it's not reasonable to expect him to be objective about Tesla

I don't like Musk as a man.... his seed money came from his family's apartheid fortune and his whole good guy memelord persona is cringey AF. But going up against his growing army of fanboys is a no no

I take bigger issue with the sheer arrogance and lack of morals of Elon than anything else.  The valuation is one thing.  It doesn't make any sense, but there are more companies than just Tesla with stupid valuations.  It's the fraud that's carrying it there that I have a problem with.

Everyone has their "Elon Moment".  Where Elon steps into your domain of expertise and says something, trying to sound knowledgeable.  And then you realize he's absolutely, totally full of shit.  I worked with Tesla as a tier 1 supplier for years with two different companies.  It was just a shitty, poorly run company to me for a long time, but whatever.  Didn't think much of it.  Then when Elon went on about the Alien Dreadnaught.  He was going to build the machine that makes the machine.  That he was going to revolutionize manufacturing as we know it, and make the Toyota Production System obsolete.  Assembly cells were just a knob you could turn up more and more, and run faster and faster.  That's my realm.  And none of that could be further from the truth in how it worked.  And now, you can look into any topic he spouts off about, and subject matter experts lose their mind at how wrong it all is.  Solar panels, neurolink, damn near anything automotive...he's a fraud.  He's not an engineer.  He's not Tony Stark.  He is the furtherest thing from that.  He's more akin to a salesman on QVC than any of those things.

SpaceX is an area I'm not nearly as familiar with.  I don't follow space stuff nearly as closely, but it's hard to analyze being privately owned.  There are no financials to dig into.

Tesla is just an interesting story.  I think it will be the Enron of our generation.  It's the culmination of so many things going on in society right now: a complete and total lack of market regulation and enforcement, a cult of personality, a social media experiment, derivative trading by the general population, society's desire for a new age of futurism.

[Submariner]

I've heard those same talking points for at least a decade. 

As for the video, I'll watch it later, but the visual comparison of Elizabeth Holmes and Elon Musk is laughable on it's face.  Theranos never made a single viable product.  Tesla and SpaceX have been making commercially successful vehicles for the better part of two decades.

[MrH]

You keep using that word "successful".  What determines success for a business?  Making products at a loss indefinitely isn't success IMO.

"Full Self Driving" is very, very much Elizabeth Holmes like.

[SJ_GTI]

You keep using that word "successful".  What determines success for a business?  Making products at a loss indefinitely isn't success IMO.

"Full Self Driving" is very, very much Elizabeth Holmes like.

I mean, Tesla cars exist and are on the road. SpaceX has launched rockets, people, functioning satellites into space. You can debate the financial valuations, but they are actually there.

Theranos never actually made any successful product. For that comparison to work Tesla would have to be buying cars from Ford/GM and then rebadging them as Teslas and SpaceX would have to be paying Blue Origin or someone else to launch their stuff into space.

[MrH]

Tesla makes some things.  Many of the things they've used as justification to raise money hasn't, and never will, exist.  Full Self Driving is just as viable and real as the Theranos nanotainer.

[FoMoJo]

If nothing else, the popularity of Tesla, among certain crowds, has pushed the major manufacturers into EVs, perhaps sooner than later.

Musk is a character and clever in his own way.  He is the prima facie entrepreneur of the day like him or not.

[GoCougs]

If nothing else, the popularity of Tesla, among certain crowds, has pushed the major manufacturers into EVs, perhaps sooner than later.

Musk is a character and clever in his own way.  He is the prima facie entrepreneur of the day like him or not.

Yet, 10 years later, ALL EV endeavors - Tesla, obviously Rivian/Lucid/Lordstown/etc., and established efforts (Bolt, etc.), are money losers.

[MrH]

If nothing else, the popularity of Tesla, among certain crowds, has pushed the major manufacturers into EVs, perhaps sooner than later.

Musk is a character and clever in his own way.  He is the prima facie entrepreneur of the day like him or not.

It's a total misallocation of capital.  Billions upon billions spent.  We would have been much much better off with plug in hybrids.

[SJ_GTI]

It's a total misallocation of capital.  Billions upon billions spent.  We would have been much much better off with plug in hybrids.

Speak for yourself. 

I don't think I'd buy a hybrid unless there was literally no choice. I could easily see myself buying an EV...just need something in the niche space where I shop (relatively small/sporty).

[FoMoJo]

Yet, 10 years later, ALL EV endeavors - Tesla, obviously Rivian/Lucid/Lordstown/etc., and established efforts (Bolt, etc.), are money losers.

It's a total misallocation of capital.  Billions upon billions spent.  We would have been much much better off with plug in hybrids.

It's all just a step along the way.  Hybrids were/are a compromise until EVs were/are viable.  Much to do with the infrastructure.  As well, hydrogen is still viable for the future.  It's a matter of replacing petroleum as a fuel.  Much better uses for it than simply burning it.

[Laconian]

It's all just a step along the way.  Hybrids were/are a compromise until EVs were/are viable. 

Hybrids are to EVs just as socialism is to communism.

(Half of CarSPIN: TRIGGERED)

[Submariner]

Tesla makes some things.  Many of the things they've used as justification to raise money hasn't, and never will, exist.  Full Self Driving is just as viable and real as the Theranos nanotainer.

There was no evidence that Theranos ever made material progress in their claimed technology.  Self driving tech has made enormous progress in the past 20 years.  It's not "self-driving" yet, but there is nothing to indicate that it will not reach that point.  And that's still subordinate to the main "claim" of EV's that can compete with ICE vehicles, and launch vehicles that can out compete their well established peers (Boeing, ULA, etc).

SpaceX has objectively and tremendously lowered the per-KG cost to LEO, GEO, GTO, TLI, etc.  You simply cannot argue otherwise.  Tesla builds and sells numerous EV's that actually work (especially considering how much less investment there was in EV's relative to ICE cars prior to Tesla) and sell well.  You simply cannot argue otherwise. 

[GoCougs]

It's all just a step along the way.  Hybrids were/are a compromise until EVs were/are viable.  Much to do with the infrastructure.  As well, hydrogen is still viable for the future.  It's a matter of replacing petroleum as a fuel.  Much better uses for it than simply burning it.

~20 years on and people only buy Toyota hybrids - literally all others flopped, despite some being just as good (1st gen Ford Fusion Hybrid, Chevy Volt). Turns out that $20k Civic is a pretty damn good deal all things considered, including environmental impact.

The environmental solution is on the demand side. WtP need to stop buying full-size pickups. WtP need to stop flying so much. WtP need to stop living in too-large  houses. WtP need to stop buying so much useless stuff on Amazon. (Of course, all that is possible with the American Dream (consumer debt)).

EVs are just a rain dance, and only stand to suborn continued environmental excesses.

[Soup DeVille]

Hybrids are to EVs just as socialism is to communism.

(Half of CarSPIN: TRIGGERED)

I mean, you're not wrong wrong...

[Morris Minor]

1.  They landed rockets ass first on landing pads before.  In the 90s.  Cool trick?  Yes, but does it provide anything more than that?  The concept of reusable rockets being cheaper is dependent on a lot of factors.  It's not a given that is always the best route.

2. ????  What?  I just went to Starlink's website.  They're quoted $500 in equipment, $100/month, for 50-150 mb/s.  And in true Musk form, it says it will be available between mid and late 2021, but they're willing to take a deposit now .  That's not remotely competitive compared to what you can get now.  I get 500+ mb/sec for $100, with no setup or equipment fee.  Oh, and they're filling the sky with endless space junk that no one has agreed to.

3.  What performance records?  0-60?  Something that Tesla can only do once or twice before needing time to cool down?  Tesla has two advantages compared to other OEMs: an endless supply of capital from equity raises with no need to profitable due to its cult, and risk tolerance.  That's it.  They don't validate or follow any industry standard.  You get batteries that are charged and discharged at rates that are damaging long term to the battery packs.  Go give other OEMs the checkbook and cult that Tesla has, and you'll get a much better result.

Wow.

[Submariner]

Wow.

Yup.

[Galaxy]

1.  They landed rockets ass first on landing pads before.  In the 90s.  Cool trick?  Yes, but does it provide anything more than that?  The concept of reusable rockets being cheaper is dependent on a lot of factors.  It's not a given that is always the best route.

In 2018 SpaceX had 65% of the global commercial market share for satellite launches, primarily since they are cheaper.  The previous commercial launch champion was the european Ariane 4 rocket, it has been dethroned. Even the new Ariane 5 rocket is not able to match SpaceX for price, it currently has zero commercial launches scheduled, only european government launches. Ariane 6 will be reusable but that is a 2030+ rocket. Space X has a lead of more than a decade

2. ????  What?  I just went to Starlink's website.  They're quoted $500 in equipment, $100/month, for 50-150 mb/s.  And in true Musk form, it says it will be available between mid and late 2021, but they're willing to take a deposit now .  That's not remotely competitive compared to what you can get now.  I get 500+ mb/sec for $100, with no setup or equipment fee.  Oh, and they're filling the sky with endless space junk that no one has agreed to.

Starlink is not intended to replace coax or fiber optic internet. It is for remote areas, and ships, yachts etc.

For comparison this is what satellite internet currently costs:

https://satellitephonestore.com/fleetbroadband-service

Inmarsat charges $7,499 per month for 40GB. And this is for service with a very high latency. To get "streaming quality" low latency they charge $36 per minute for 256Kbps, and the equipment to utilize that costs $5000. This is the internet that super yachts and military vessels currently use.
Starlink is going to put them out of business.

[Submariner]

Those are all fake numbers bro.  Totally made up.  Not real.  Elon doesn't even exist.  He is a hologram made from an already existing projector and marijuana smoke.

[MrH]

That's a very niche market, but it sounds like starlink soundly beats the current stuff. It's hard to analyze whether that's a good business model or not, being private and backed by Musk.

If you guys could actually bring something to the discussion, that'd be great. Literally any Tesla topic or financial numbers would be great. Starlink and SpaceX could be the most profitable companies ever or hemorrhaging cash. There's no way to tell

[Submariner]

We already did.  Space X is dominating the commercial launch market.

[Galaxy]

That's a very niche market, but it sounds like starlink soundly beats the current stuff.

But that is the beauty of Starlink, it takes what is a market for billionaires, and governments, and makes it affordable to most people. One can take a sailboat anchor it of a tropical island in French Polynesia, spend the day doing work, and then when you are done you jump off the boat and go fishing with the tropical fish.

[Laconian]

+1, the yachting community is insanely excited about Starlink.

[Morris Minor]

That's a very niche market, but it sounds like starlink soundly beats the current stuff. It's hard to analyze whether that's a good business model or not, being private and backed by Musk.

If you guys could actually bring something to the discussion, that'd be great. Literally any Tesla topic or financial numbers would be great. Starlink and SpaceX could be the most profitable companies ever or hemorrhaging cash. There's no way to tell

Take the surface area of Earth.
Subtract from it that area that has non-urban/suburban population densities.

1) Calculate the population of the result.
2) Now add every vehicle  that moves on the land, on the sea, & in the air.

Estimate the market demand of 1) & 2) for low-latency, high bandwidth internet access or, failing that, for any internet access at all.  The result is Starlink's potential market.