Safety Tech Will Kill Manual Transmissions Before EVs Do, Says Report

[cawimmer430]

Safety Tech Will Kill Manual Transmissions Before EVs Do, Says Report

A new report from Automotive News Canada suggests that the advent of safety tech may hasten the impending death of the manual transmission. Automatic braking tech in particular, along with other active safety features, may be the final nail in the coffin for stick shifts, which simply don't perform or marry as well with those systems as their automatic counterparts.

Truth be told, the writing has been on the wall for some time. Safety tech being mandated is the latest in a long line of shifts in the auto industry that will likely spell doom for the manual gearbox.


Automatic Emergency Braking Strikes First

With the proliferation of EVs, as well as the ever-increasing presence of self-driving tech, cars that come equipped with a manual gearbox make up a small percentage of sales. While previously buyers may have preferred the performance and fuel economy benefits of a manual vs. an automatic, modern technology has closed the gap in both areas, effectively relegating the manual gearbox to an enthusiast's feature.

Despite this, several automakers persist in their manual offerings. But the report questions how long these manufacturers will continue to offer a manual option when AEB systems are made mandatory. The mechanics of making AEB systems work with automatic transmissions are far less complex than doing so for manual cars.

Subaru Canada does not offer their Eyesight safety suite on manual transmission cars. According to the company, this is because their manual vehicles do not have an electronic parking brake needed to prevent creep after AEB engagement. While implementation is technically possible (Mazda opts to stall the car if the clutch isn't depressed), Subaru cites economic reasons for not doing so.

Mazda Canada reported that in 2016, 19.2 percent of cars sold were equipped with manual gearboxes, but in 2020, that figure had dropped down to just 6.4 percent. With demand falling for manual gearboxes, it's not hard to see why an extra mandated cost may simply force the bean counters to cull manuals altogether.

Nevertheless, while Subaru Canada reports that stick shifts made less than 10 percent of sales in 2019, demand for manual sports cars such as the WRX/STI and the BRZ increased in the four years between 2016 and 2020.

Speaking to Automotive News Canada, a spokesman for product management at Subaru, Anton Pawczuk, said the company remains committed to offering manual-equipped vehicles. However, regulations could change that in the light of compulsory AEB systems. "If it becomes mandated one day, then we'll have to take a look at it," he said.


EVs & Hybrids Leave Little Room For Cogs

Another contributing factor sure to be mentioned in the manual's obituary is the shift in energy sources. Unless you're BYD, fitting an EV with a manual transmission makes little sense. The same goes for hybrids, a technology that companies such as Toyota appear to be doubling down on.

Jörg Trampler, director of electrified powertrain technology at ZF's North American engineering center in Livonia, Michigan, states that adding manual shifting to a hybrid drivetrain requires additional technology, such as an electronic clutch. An e-clutch is needed to ensure seamless switching between internal combustion and electric power.

It would thus seem inevitable that more manufacturers will opt not to adapt their latest tech to include the small band of row-your-own-gears enthusiasts. This becomes especially evident with the recent statistics from IHS Markit and ZF Group showing that the global market for manual transmissions is down to 17.1 percent, and just 1.2 percent for North America. The report goes on to say that IHS found that sales of electric vehicles eclipsed those of stick-shift cars in the United States last year.


Link: https://www.carscoops.com/2021/05/safety-tech-will-kill-manual-transmissions-before-evs-do-says-report/

[AutobahnSHO]

Interesting.

[MX793]

Not at all surprising.  Current MT cars frequently are not offered with the same feature suites as their AT counterparts, particularly when it comes to autonomous driving features like AEB and even smart cruise.  The car has no way to decouple the clutch or shift to a lower gear to prevent stalling if the autonomous driving tech forces it to slow below stall speed.

[SJ_GTI]

Not at all surprising.  Current MT cars frequently are not offered with the same feature suites as their AT counterparts, particularly when it comes to autonomous driving features like AEB and even smart cruise.  The car has no way to decouple the clutch or shift to a lower gear to prevent stalling if the autonomous driving tech forces it to slow below stall speed.

I think I mentioned this before but my Golf has smart cruise and lane assist even though it is a manual transmission. It obviously cannot change gears, but at the same time changing gears doesn't automatically just off the system. If I have the smart cruise on and for some reason I want to go to a different gear I can do it. So it could never really be "autonomous" but it works about as well as it could given it is a manual transmission.

[MX793]

I think I mentioned this before but my Golf has smart cruise and lane assist even though it is a manual transmission. It obviously cannot change gears, but at the same time changing gears doesn't automatically just off the system. If I have the smart cruise on and for some reason I want to go to a different gear I can do it. So it could never really be "autonomous" but it works about as well as it could given it is a manual transmission.

Lane keeping shouldn't care about transmission type.  Autonomous systems that control speed either don't work at all with MT (AEB) or operate with significant limitations (smart cruise).  Smart cruise should generally work OK with MT, but if you find yourself in a situation where traffic slows significantly (accident scene or construction), you may need to disable it to downshift to prevent stalling (pressing the clutch on any modern MT car will disable cruise, same as tapping the brake) whereas an AT would not.

[SJ_GTI]

Lane keeping shouldn't care about transmission type.  Autonomous systems that control speed either don't work at all with MT (AEB) or operate with significant limitations (smart cruise).  Smart cruise should generally work OK with MT, but if you find yourself in a situation where traffic slows significantly (accident scene or construction), you may need to disable it to downshift to prevent stalling (pressing the clutch on any modern MT car will disable cruise, same as tapping the brake) whereas an AT would not.

I hear what you are saying, but I am also saying the highlighted part from your post isn't true with my car. The cruise doesn't shut off when I engage the clutch. I am able to change gears while smart cruise is enable. Throttle of course is disengaged when I apply the clutch, but it reengages once the car is back in gear and I release the clutch. It functions pretty seamlessly in practice. If I apply the brake it does indeed turn off the smart cruise completely.

[MX793]

I hear what you are saying, but I am also saying the highlighted part from your post isn't true with my car. The cruise doesn't shut off when I engage the clutch. I am able to change gears while smart cruise is enable. Throttle of course is disengaged when I apply the clutch, but it reengages once the car is back in gear and I release the clutch. It functions pretty seamlessly in practice. If I apply the brake it does indeed turn off the smart cruise completely.

I misunderstood.  I have no experience with smart cruise and MT.  Every MT car I've driven with regular cruise disables cruise when you push in the clutch and you have to press the "resume" button to re-enable it.

[SJ_GTI]

I misunderstood.  I have no experience with smart cruise and MT.  Every MT car I've driven with regular cruise disables cruise when you push in the clutch and you have to press the "resume" button to re-enable it.

Every other car I have owned operates the way you described...touching the clutch would turn off cruise control.

[veeman]

They might make exceptions for future mandated safety tech in cars offered with manual transmissions in which the safety tech is not compatible or too costly for implementation.

The number of cars sold with manual transmission is yearly dwindling.  Fewer and fewer car nameplates are even being offered with one.  There is a small group however that love driving them and just like they've carved out exceptions for other mandated safety features in classic cars (like seat belts in cars made before 1965), I would hope they would carve out the same exception for manual transmission cars because it's a very small number of cars anyways.  I know it's the not the same comparison because classic cars are not "new".