Tesla's future to many people looks dubious. The Bolt, Leaf, and others sell in OK numbers, but they're not challenging the Camry and Accord.
Dumb eco-weenies like to say that Tesla is changing the automotive landscape, but we can't forget that the Model 3 and Model S are premium products. $45K USD is a lot of money for someone to shell out for a thing. Especially if you're used to buying cars at around 20K....
I live in an apartment, and I don't see any way where I could sell my car and live, or buy an EV and somehow find a space to charge. And with this being the USA, I don't see the government offering incentives for landlords to install or offer charging spaces.....aside from very fringe areas like SF or the PNW.
Everyone is saying the market is pushing to electric cars; aside from the electric car market growing and adding a few new players and a few extra sales, I don't see this "big push".
Same with autonomous driving, to be honest.
I don't see it either, and can't see myself owning one. I think both EV and autonomous are over hyped.
Go to the upper west coast and your opinion might change.
Yes, its still a small percentage; but it certainly is a lot more than it was four years ago.
The aparment conundrum is a real issue for EVs. I don't think it would take much to make them viable
It'll be like the olden days...fuckin hitch posts for EVs everywhere. Ugh.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 05:02:19 AM
Go to the upper west coast and your opinion might change.
Yes, its still a small percentage; but it certainly is a lot more than it was four years ago.
Sure, but IMO that's more image and perceived status driven (Tesla brand, w coast "green" circle jerk) than economics. To make a rational case for EVs prices have to come way down and range has to go up ... nobody buys a $100k Tesla to save a hundred bucks a month on gas.
Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 07:18:16 AM
Sure, but IMO that's more image and perceived status driven (Tesla brand, w coast "green" circle jerk) than economics. To make a rational case for EVs prices have to come way down and range has to go up ... nobody buys a $100k Tesla to save a hundred bucks a month on gas.
For the majority of cars sold, its hard to make a rational case. But, the range issue is largely overblown at this point
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 07:22:06 AM
For the majority of cars sold, its hard to make a rational case. But, the range issue is largely overblown at this point
For the majority of luxury cars, and certainly cars in the model S price range, sure. As 206 said in his OP, if EVs are to challenge the Camry, Accord, Civic, CR-V, Escape etc they have a ways to go from a practical and economic POV.
Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 07:34:25 AM
For the majority of luxury cars, and certainly cars in the model S price range, sure. As 206 said in his OP, if EVs are to challenge the Camry, Accord, Civic, CR-V, Escape etc they have a ways to go from a practical and economic POV.
There's a big gulf between the BMW 7-series/Model S level and the Corrola/Camry world, and while I agree with 206, there's a lot of middle ground there that could be EV territory in the next few years.
I don't know that there's a lot of cost-conscious volume in that space.
I don't think autonomous cars are overblown at all- in 20yrs that will be the norm.
And with that, EVs become more viable. Someone in an apartment that can't afford a car can get the new&improved Uber (autonomous, EV) whenever they want.
Endgame is rich people own their own, most people just scan a card and pay per ride. And in the wild wild west, there might be rare self-driven gasoline vehicles on the ranches or farms, but most cars even there will be autonomous gas burners.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on April 26, 2018, 08:17:24 AM
I don't think autonomous cars are overblown at all- in 20yrs that will be the norm.
No way
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on April 26, 2018, 08:17:24 AM
in 20yrs that will be the norm.
And in the wild wild west, there might be rare self-driven gasoline vehicles on the ranches or farms, but most cars even there will be autonomous gas burners.
Not a chance. People in the "wild wild west" want nothing to do with autonomous vehicles.
I'm highly dubious of this autonomous uber being the norm idea, outside major cities.
Although you wouldn't be able to tell from the Tesla thread, the Model 3 will likely be the first- or second-best selling entry lux sedan for the month of April. It's a two-way race between the BMW 2/3/4 series and Tesla. If you break down BMWs stable into the separate models, Tesla will grab the top spot even without increasing their production volume past the early-April marks.
Quote from: Lebowski on April 26, 2018, 08:34:28 AM
I'm highly dubious of this autonomous uber being the norm idea, outside major cities.
Cities generally have their own transportation systems. Autonomous Ubers will thrive in the space between fully rural and fully urban.
I was working on the G Monday and needed to run to Harbor Freight for a tool.... wound up getting an Uber. Would have been great if it were automated (and cheaper). Car ownership is a real burden on my in laws... grandma would be much better off with autonomous Uber. Lots of small local trips that are too expensive for cabs but out of the range of our (shitty) public transportation.
Quote from: Tave on April 26, 2018, 08:42:27 AM
Although you wouldn't be able to tell from the Tesla thread, the Model 3 will likely be the first- or second-best selling entry lux sedan for the month of April. It's a two-way race between the BMW 2/3/4 series and Tesla. If you break down BMWs stable into the separate models, Tesla will grab the top spot even without increasing their production volume past the early-April marks.
Tesla has a unique hype about them. I don't think they're a good representation of the market as a whole.
Electric cars will relentlessly get better until they become a total no brainer. The investment into electric car and battery R&D is accelerating fast. Shit's exponential there. By contrast ICE development is basically plateaued, with big investments yielding only marginal single digit gains. Can't get around the fundamental fact that most of gasoline energy is lost as heat.
Ubering is expensive.
If I were to use Uber like I used my car, it would be 2-3x my car payment, but I wouldn't even have a thing to show for it.
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 11:13:56 AM
Tesla has a unique hype about them. I don't think they're a good representation of the market as a whole.
+1
Quote from: 2o6 on April 26, 2018, 02:23:04 PM
Ubering is expensive.
If I were to use Uber like I used my car, it would be 2-3x my car payment, but I wouldn't even have a thing to show for it.
Of course it depends on how it's used, and once people don't have to drive the car, the price will cut at least in half.
I see quite a few where I work, but the complex has free charge ports for EVs. That being the case, I'd consider one as a commuter but otherwise no because of my apartment living.
There has to be an infrastructure overhaul/improvement to meet the demand of mass users of EVs, ie, a shitload of charging stations. It's hardly the norm in the cities where it's big, and has barely scratched the surface of suburbia as far as mass use goes. Open charging stations are going to be the new free parking spot some day, though, once parking meters and charge stations are the same thing.
Quote from: Laconian on April 26, 2018, 11:16:27 AM
Electric cars will relentlessly get better until they become a total no brainer. The investment into electric car and battery R&D is accelerating fast. Shit's exponential there. By contrast ICE development is basically plateaued, with big investments yielding only marginal single digit gains. Can't get around the fundamental fact that most of gasoline energy is lost as heat.
There is still a shitload of potential left. The potential efficiency of a gas engine is like 80%. We are nowhere near that, and tech like HCCI can get us a good bit closer. Plus while EV tech has a lot of potential, from a source energy perspective if they're being charged by natural gas plants (or worse) it's kind of irrelevant.
The main hurdle for ICE efficiency is how much are we willing to spend (and sacrifice) to achieve that efficiency? I imagine an engine generator running at a single speed could probably get a good bit of the way there, but that's a lot of cost.
Quote from: giant_mtb on April 26, 2018, 05:36:17 PM
There has to be an infrastructure overhaul/improvement to meet the demand of mass users of EVs, ie, a shitload of charging stations. It's hardly the norm in the cities where it's big, and has barely scratched the surface of suburbia as far as mass use goes. Open charging stations are going to be the new free parking spot some day, though, once parking meters and charge stations are the same thing.
Charging stations are an end user issue; the real problem is producing and distributing that power in the first place. Rolling blackout/ ev central California will be the first to show how deep that problem can go.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 06:03:20 PM
There is still a shitload of potential left. The potential efficiency of a gas engine is like 80%. We are nowhere near that, and tech like HCCI can get us a good bit closer. Plus while EV tech has a lot of potential, from a source energy perspective if they're being charged by natural gas plants (or worse) it's kind of irrelevant.
The main hurdle for ICE efficiency is how much are we willing to spend (and sacrifice) to achieve that efficiency? I imagine an engine generator running at a single speed could probably get a good bit of the way there, but that's a lot of cost.
No, the potential theoretical efficiency of a gas engine is around 36%.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 06:16:48 PM
Charging stations are an end user issue; the real problem is producing and distributing that power in the first place. Rolling blackout/ ev central California will be the first to show how deep that problem can go.
Indeed. I was thinking about that today actually. Can our power grid even handle mass EV charging? Certainly not in its current state.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 06:18:15 PM
No, the potential theoretical efficiency of a gas engine is around 36%.
I thought Sporty's numbers smelled optimistic.
Quote from: giant_mtb on April 26, 2018, 06:27:22 PM
Indeed. I was thinking about that today actually. Can our power grid even handle mass EV charging? Certainly not in its current state.
If the majority is done on off-peak hours, then yes it can; up to a point. After that, no and it will take years to add that capacity.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 06:57:40 PM
If the majority is done on off-peak hours, then yes it can; up to a point. After that, no and it will take years to add that capacity.
I feel like EV charging when people get to/home from work will create its own peak hours, which I doubt the current grid can handle.
Quote from: Laconian on April 26, 2018, 06:43:16 PM
I thought Sporty's numbers smelled optimistic.
For a practical engine, absolutely.
Mathematically, the numbers are more like 65% (my memory rounds numbers), but that's a carnot cycle engine (we don't know how to build them at all), running compression ratios of around 30:1 in an ideal state of tune (theoretically the exhaust temp at this point is exactly ambient)
Low speed diesel engines are more efficient at around 50%, but do so primarily by keeping pumping losses down and operating speeds around 60 RPM
Quote from: giant_mtb on April 26, 2018, 07:00:33 PM
I feel like EV charging when people get to/home from work will create its own peak hours, which I doubt the current grid can handle.
Things can be optimized to a certain extent there. A "smart" charger might make an appointment of sorts to get X number of kWh between the hours of say-9 Pm and 5 AM even though its plugged in at 7.
But sooner or later we get reminded there aint no such thing as a free lunch.
Quote from: giant_mtb on April 26, 2018, 07:00:33 PM
I feel like EV charging when people get to/home from work will create its own peak hours, which I doubt the current grid can handle.
Electric cars already have the ability to schedule their charging times. When you get home, your car will wait for the off-peak time (after everybody's done cooking & cooling their houses), then they'll start guzzling.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 07:04:03 PM
For a practical engine, absolutely.
Mathematically, the numbers are more like 65% (my memory rounds numbers), but that's a carnot cycle engine (we don't know how to build them at all), running compression ratios of around 30:1 in an ideal state of tune (theoretically the exhaust temp at this point is exactly ambient)
Low speed diesel engines are more efficient at around 50%, but do so primarily by keeping pumping losses down and operating speeds around 60 RPM
2smoke everything.
Quote from: Laconian on April 26, 2018, 07:17:41 PM
Electric cars already have the ability to schedule their charging times. When you get home, your car will wait for the off-peak time (after everybody's done cooking & cooling their houses), then they'll start guzzling.
And that could be optimized further; all the EVs on a particular grid might coordinate their energy usage for instance.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 07:06:33 PM
Things can be optimized to a certain extent there. A "smart" charger might make an appointment of sorts to get X number of kWh between the hours of say-9 Pm and 5 AM even though its plugged in at 7.
But sooner or later we get reminded there aint no such thing as a free lunch.
Quote from: Laconian on April 26, 2018, 07:17:41 PM
Electric cars already have the ability to schedule their charging times. When you get home, your car will wait for the off-peak time (after everybody's done cooking & cooling their houses), then they'll start guzzling.
Fair enough.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 07:06:33 PM
Things can be optimized to a certain extent there. A "smart" charger might make an appointment of sorts to get X number of kWh between the hours of say-9 Pm and 5 AM even though its plugged in at 7.
But sooner or later we get reminded there aint no such thing as a free lunch.
Daytime/evening peaks are pretty peaky though. A/C is an energy hog.
Quote from: Laconian on April 26, 2018, 07:24:51 PM
Daytime/evening peaks are pretty peaky though. A/C is an energy hog.
Call me cynical, but the only real solution to a significant increase in electrical power is serious rebuilding of our transmission/distribution infrastructure; and that is going to be fought against tooth and nail while providers search for any solution they can.
EVs charging at night would actually help the grid as there is a huge imbalance between daytime and nighttime loads which forces cycling of power plants
Quote from: r0tor on April 26, 2018, 07:34:37 PM
EVs charging at night would actually help the grid as there is a huge imbalance between daytime and nighttime loads which forces cycling of power plants
hmmm.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 06:16:48 PM
Charging stations are an end user issue; the real problem is producing and distributing that power in the first place. Rolling blackout/ ev central California will be the first to show how deep that problem can go.
Must I bust out my off-peak chart again? If people charge at night we already have a good bit of capacity built in that just goes unused. California's power problem, like most of its problems, are unique. Power companies would actually prefer more steady load, both for revenue and for planning.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 26, 2018, 08:24:33 PM
Must I bust out my off-peak chart again? If people charge at night we already have a good bit of capacity built in that just goes unused. California's power problem, like most of its problems, are unique. Power companies would actually prefer more steady load, both for revenue and for planning.
Its not all going to be off-peak though. The point I was getting at was that you can only stretch the off peak use so far.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 05:02:19 AM
Go to the upper west coast and your opinion might change.
Yes, its still a small percentage; but it certainly is a lot more than it was four years ago.
His opinion will only be enforced - they're still mostly curiosities if not toys for rich(er) folk who turnaround and buy new (i.e., unrecycled) $1MM+ homes with gargantuan environmental footprints.
As I've been saying for forever, EVs and autonomous driving are DOA without some sort of catastrophic intervention by government.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 26, 2018, 08:45:15 PM
Its not all going to be off-peak though. The point I was getting at was that you can only stretch the off peak use so far.
Not all, but probably most. If people are encouraged + incentivized to charge at home during off hours, they will charge at home during off hours. As for how far we can stretch off peak use, that depends on how many EVs come online, which is a whole other topic. Point is there is a lot of unused electric capacity that would work well for EV charging and the electric grid.
Quote from: GoCougs on April 26, 2018, 09:32:54 PM
As I've been saying for forever, EVs and autonomous driving are DOA without some sort of catastrophic intervention by government.
Or without catastrophic intervention of ultra high fuel prices and/or lack availability of fossil fuels.
If/when they start making them that run longer off a charge I'll get one and never look back.
BMW is planning their business model for 15-25% of the cars it makes to have electric drivetrains. I wonder why they think that is? If demand for electric vehicles increases, then oil prices should decrease, which would drive people toward conventional drivetrains.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/bmws-modular-architecture-just-two-platforms-will-cover-all-models
Quote from: Rich on July 09, 2018, 12:19:55 PM
BMW is planning their business model for 15-25% of the cars it makes to have electric drivetrains. I wonder why they think that is? If demand for electric vehicles increases, then oil prices should decrease, which would drive people toward conventional drivetrains.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/bmws-modular-architecture-just-two-platforms-will-cover-all-models
That was an interesting read. I don't think normal market forces are what's driving this push primarily. It's China which is mandating electric vehicles and Western Europe which is mandating more and more strict emissions requirements and some European countries heavily incentivizing electric vehicles.
I could see demand in Europe plummeting further as a result
I could live with an electric car
China is really pushing electric:
https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/investing/china-germany-cars-tech/index.html (https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/investing/china-germany-cars-tech/index.html)
QuoteTop German carmakers including BMW (BMWYY) and Volkswagen (VLKAY) have inked a series of deals this week to continue developing electric and self-driving cars in China.
The flurry of commitments coincides with a trip to Berlin by Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, but it also reflects a growing recognition that China holds the key to the auto industry's future.
Factories in China produced about 25 million passenger cars last year, according to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers. China is already the top market for many global car brands, and its drivers purchase more electric vehicles than any other country.
BMW and Volkswagen have announced a total of six new deals this week alone.
...
A recent announcement that China would relax its rules on joint ventures — allowing foreign firms to operate with more independence in the country — has also attracted attention from foreign auto executives, including Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk.
Tesla said last year that it was in discussions with the Shanghai Municipal Government about building a factory, and on Tuesday it confirmed that it had reached agreement to build a plant. The company said it would take roughly two years for production to begin at the facility.
Its interesting because China is not really one of the cheapest places to manufacture anymore. It really is more about being in a place where you can just sell more stuff.
This article is a year old, but the trend is still that wages are growing faster in China than in most other places.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/16/china-wage-levels-equal-to-or-surpass-parts-of-europe/#63f1d553e7f1 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/16/china-wage-levels-equal-to-or-surpass-parts-of-europe/#63f1d553e7f1)
QuoteThis may be a glass half-full moment. Either China is catching up to parts of Europe in terms of wages, or wages in the newest parts of the European Union are being capped by the global competition for labor, a competition that China wins, hands down. In reality, it's both.
China's median monthly wages in Shanghai ($1,135), Beijing ($983) and Shenzen ($938) are higher than they are in the newest European Union member, Croatia. Croatia's median net salary is $887 a month. They joined the EU in 2013.
Shanghai's median wages, in particular, are also greater than two of the newest euro members in the Baltics: Lithuania ($956) and Latvia ($1,005), with Estonia, which joined the euro in 2011, recording a median income of $1,256 per month, according to government figures for 2016.
All those numbers might seem low to Americans, but they would be very high in Mexico, for example. I think Mexico is somewhere in the ~400-500/month range.
Whoops, speak of the devil:
https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/news/companies/tesla-china-factory/index.html (https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/news/companies/tesla-china-factory/index.html)
QuoteFor the first time, China will let a foreign automaker open up shop without a Chinese company as its partner.
Tesla has plans to open a plant in Shanghai that will one day crank out 500,000 vehicles a year — enough to rival the company's main plant in Fremont, California.
Tesla said it will be the sole owner of the factory. Until now, China has always required foreign companies to enter joint ventures with domestic companies.
Tesla expects to begin construction in the near future, after it gets the necessary government approvals. From there, the plant will take about two years to build and two to three more years to produce 500,000 vehicles a year.
"one day"
:lol:
Lol
Can't even build the cars they've already promised people.
Decides to build a factory in a foreign country.
Wow, surprised the median China salary is higher than it is in Croatia. Maybe I am colored by its beauty, but everywhere we saw in Croatia was really nice.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on July 10, 2018, 01:41:02 PM
Wow, surprised the median China salary is higher than it is in Croatia. Maybe I am colored by its beauty, but everywhere we saw in Croatia was really nice.
There are usually very nice areas of any really poor country.
He did travel around by car, so he probably saw the Real Croatia?
No car in Croatia, but we did stay in an AirBnB well off the beaten path.
All I know is I did buy one. In fact, I just bought my old Volt back for pennies on the dollar. And so I'm back to driving to work on cheap electrons.
(http://www.chrisv-design.com/images/Volt06.jpg)
Not exactly an electric car but sorta point taken ;).
How did you manage the theft recovery (i.e., how did it not get chopped within hours)?
I dunno. It got recovered in West Virginia nearly a year later and then sat in police impound for a year apparently. My insurance company never followed up on it so they lost all interest in it. Then it got sold at police auction and it's been passed around dealers all over the country and racked up 13k miles (all on the generator, mind you) before ending up at the dealer I saw it advertised at. THey were having problems selling it because the "clean carfax" said stolen/recovered and no one wanted to chance it. I thought it looked familiar when I looked at the ad, and ran the VIN against my previous paperwork. Lo and behold it WAS my old car. A few more dents and scratches than when I had it, but really only just dirty. Cleaned up nice and drove perfectly, so I told the dealership that I'd give them what they paid at auction for it and they took the deal.
I thought for sure that it had been sent off to China or Eastern Europe. As it was, the person that took it had removed the OnStar fuse so it couldn't be tracked.
Nice, awesome story.
Yeah, cool story.
That's wild and really crazy odds.
I have to ask, what did you get it for? What year and miles on it?
Quote from: MrH on July 18, 2018, 06:11:35 AM
That's wild and really crazy odds.
I have to ask, what did you get it for? What year and miles on it?
It's a 2013, and it has 28k miles on it. I paid $8k. They were asking $13k.
I'd have never have seen it had my buddy not come to my desk looking for Volt prices so he could sell his Volt now that he has a Model 3.
Speaking of my buddy's model 3, he picked it up the other day and I took a close look at it and rode in it. I didn't see any quality issues or fit and finish issues with it. And while the center large screen is a bit odd at first, it's well laid out and easy to use, and you get used to it pretty quickly. the car is plenty quick, too. Would definitely make a good commuter.
Nice - i'd love to borrow one for a couple of days.
(PS: he might consider getting a windshield sun shade cut for the car: https://www.heatshieldstore.com/vehicles (https://www.heatshieldstore.com/vehicles) )
Quote from: Morris Minor on July 23, 2018, 05:23:45 PM
Nice - i'd love to borrow one for a couple of days.
(PS: he might consider getting a windshield sun shade cut for the car: https://www.heatshieldstore.com/vehicles (https://www.heatshieldstore.com/vehicles) )
(https://s22.postimg.cc/l6bj9if6p/hqdefault.jpg)