Autonomous Cars

Started by AutobahnSHO, October 08, 2015, 08:53:13 AM

AutobahnSHO

Will

Galaxy


2o6

IDK man, humans are pretty good at adapting to real time environmental changes. Computers won't be able to do that

Galaxy

Quote from: 2o6 on October 08, 2015, 12:01:48 PM
IDK man, humans are pretty good at adapting to real time environmental changes. Computers won't be able to do that

Not if they are tired, texting on their phone, or looking at the Victoria's Secret commercial beside the road.

12,000 RPM

Quote from: 2o6 on October 08, 2015, 12:01:48 PM
IDK man, humans are pretty good at adapting to real time environmental changes. Computers won't be able to do that
:facepalm:
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: 2o6 on October 08, 2015, 12:01:48 PM
IDK man, humans are pretty good at adapting to real time environmental changes. Computers won't be able to do that

"Somewhat" Disagree, I-80 in Wyoming has "adjustable speed limits" now. Human controllers monitor the weather, and set the limits lower as needed.

Car can have thermometer, TCS can tell if it's slippery, radar/infrared can tell how much clutter (pedestrian/cars/whatever) is ahead much more quickly than people can...
Will

GoCougs

Meh, self-driving cars are right up there with flying cars - relatively easy to do in isolation but never gonna happen en masse save for a complete and total retooling of the whole of US roadway infrastructure.

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: GoCougs on October 08, 2015, 08:05:47 PM
Meh, self-driving cars are right up there with flying cars - relatively easy to do in isolation but never gonna happen en masse save for a complete and total retooling of the whole of US roadway infrastructure.

LOL   Sorry but it's coming and you can't stop it.
Will

Gotta-Qik-C7

Quote from: GoCougs on October 08, 2015, 08:05:47 PM
Meh, self-driving cars are right up there with flying cars - relatively easy to do in isolation but never gonna happen en masse save for a complete and total retooling of the whole of US roadway infrastructure.
I agree! I can't wait to see how these cars will react to computer crashes and viruses...........
2014 C7 Vert, 2002 Silverado, 2005 Road Glide

giant_mtb

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on October 08, 2015, 12:54:07 PM
"Somewhat" Disagree, I-80 in Wyoming has "adjustable speed limits" now. Human controllers monitor the weather, and set the limits lower as needed.

Car can have thermometer, TCS can tell if it's slippery, radar/infrared can tell how much clutter (pedestrian/cars/whatever) is ahead much more quickly than people can...


Yeah, they can tell when it's slippery. And then crash. Or go so damn slow you could walk there faster. Or just stop altogether because, well, I'm a computer and this weather sucks, can we just stay here?  No, you stupid fucking car. You got me stuck in this snowbank, get me out. Do you know how to rock it out?  No?  That means nothing to you?  Oh yeah you're a computer.

MexicoCityM3

I've said it before. We are the equivalent of future horse riding enthusiasts. Autonomous cars are coming and changing driving forever.
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12,000 RPM

I think I will save a copy of my post debunking the autonomous automobile alarmism. We are not horse riding enthusiasts and there are plenty of obvious insurmountable issues that will keep full automotive autonomy from ever happening, let alone as soon as people fear.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

GoCougs

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on October 09, 2015, 05:47:30 AM
I think I will save a copy of my post debunking the autonomous automobile alarmism. We are not horse riding enthusiasts and there are plenty of obvious insurmountable issues that will keep full automotive autonomy from ever happening, let alone as soon as people fear.

Pretty much. Self-driving cars are fads right up there with drones, 3D printing, robots, electric vehicles and all the rest of the stuff popular media and culture thinks is the Next Big Thing. Industry has been doing this stuff for many years, and it's stayed within industry for a reason.

I do machine/computer vision and displacement sensing for a living (albeit nothing to the complexity attempted for these cars) and the tech will never be able to appropriately pilot a car on today's roadways. The killer is the process - the window is simply too wide - near infinite variation in road markings, road surfaces, weather conditions and driving chaos. It's easy to get vision/sensing applications 80% effective but to get them 99.9+% it's usually brutal, and that almost always only happens with changing the premise (the operating conditions - lighting, coloring, fiducials, etc.).

We will not have self driving cars if but for a dedicated roadway with the appropriate (consistent/standardized) road markings, road surfaces, weather mitigation and control. I think that's the power play though. Like any good corporatist culture we'll see the automakers and/or related interests try to lobby for such changes to their own benefit. Thing is it would be such a mammoth undertaking it'd probably be cheaper to go with uber mass transit (not that I'd endorse mass transit or self-driving cars - in fact such things would mark the decline of our culture as it has elsewhere).

Morris Minor

I think it would best if there were a common standard for autonomous operation (&, for that matter, "controlled convoy movement" where cars latch on and then are moved along on high density freeways.
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giant_mtb

Quote from: Morris Minor on October 09, 2015, 01:19:08 PM
I think it would best if there were a common standard for autonomous operation (&, for that matter, "controlled convoy movement" where cars latch on and then are moved along on high density freeways.


Rich

I'd wager $50 that there will be fully autonomous cars on sale (not just a lease like the Mirai) by 2022.

With the amount of money that Apple, Google, Tesla, auto OEMs, and some Tier 1 suppliers are throwing at autonomous tech, there has to be an end to the rainbow. These are a bunch of smart people deciding it's worth it. It's gotta be coming.
2003 Mazda Miata 5MT; 2005 Subaru Impreza Outback Sport 4AT

12,000 RPM

How are we definining fully autonomous...... there are already cars that can accelerate, brake, turn and avoid obstacles without human input, at least in certain conditions.

I don't know about fully autonomous though. Personally I can't wait for fully autonomous cars. All the people who don't want to drive or have no business behind a wheel would be taken out of the game bit by bit. And of course there is the huge potential for car sharing and expanded public transportation. But the bogeyman of mandatory fully automated cars is a non starter, at least in our lifetimes.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Rich

I mean you hop in, tell the car the address you want to go to or have programmed in by name and sit back and it goes, in good weather.

I just can't get over how many companies with really smart people are throwing money at it. Maybe if it was just one or two I could relate it to the flying car, but it's a huge push from all over. They must be able to be seeing a return on investment for this stuff.
2003 Mazda Miata 5MT; 2005 Subaru Impreza Outback Sport 4AT

Rich

Yeah I agree I don't think we will get to the point of mandatory. But on sale, for sure. And I bet they'll be as rare as new Ferraris for a number of years until trickle down can happen.
2003 Mazda Miata 5MT; 2005 Subaru Impreza Outback Sport 4AT

Raza

Quote from: HotRodPilot on November 06, 2015, 06:24:46 AM
I mean you hop in, tell the car the address you want to go to or have programmed in by name and sit back and it goes, in good weather.

I already have a car like that, and it works in bad weather too. It's called an Uber. And it has the judgment of a human being to know when it is and isn't safe to do certain maneuvers.

Autonomous cars are garbage. Once they hit a mass production price, manually driven cars will be phased out. Maybe not in our lifetime, but I would expect horrible computer boxes to fully replace cars on roads within 20-30 years of when they reach attainability.

If you want your life in the hands of a computer--or better yet, millions of computers, you better hope Microsoft doesn't get the corner in the market. And if you complain about cars being "disposable" now, just wait when they become technologically obsolete in a year and require a new purchase every two years.
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Quote from: the Teuton on October 05, 2009, 03:53:18 PM
It's impossible to argue with Raza. He wins. Period. End of discussion.

Raza

Quote from: HotRodPilot on November 06, 2015, 06:26:28 AM
Yeah I agree I don't think we will get to the point of mandatory. But on sale, for sure. And I bet they'll be as rare as new Ferraris for a number of years until trickle down can happen.

The way Ferrari is going, they'll be the first ones to bring it to market. The most amazing driving experience you'll never have, guaranteed a 7' +/- 5 seconds lap of the Nurburgring, all while you wait for your Viagra to kick in when you're convincing a plastic bimbo to suck your deflated dick when you get back to the hotel.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
If you can read this, you're too close


2006 BMW Z4 3.0i
http://accelerationtherapy.squarespace.com/   @accelerationdoc
Quote from: the Teuton on October 05, 2009, 03:53:18 PM
It's impossible to argue with Raza. He wins. Period. End of discussion.

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Raza  on November 06, 2015, 06:34:25 AM
I already have a car like that, and it works in bad weather too. It's called an Uber. And it has the judgment of a human being to know when it is and isn't safe to do certain maneuvers.

Autonomous cars are garbage. Once they hit a mass production price, manually driven cars will be phased out. Maybe not in our lifetime, but I would expect horrible computer boxes to fully replace cars on roads within 20-30 years of when they reach attainability.

If you want your life in the hands of a computer--or better yet, millions of computers, you better hope Microsoft doesn't get the corner in the market. And if you complain about cars being "disposable" now, just wait when they become technologically obsolete in a year and require a new purchase every two years.
When it comes to threads on autonomous cars you might as well just copy and paste "FUD & control issues" over and over. Autonomous cars barely exist, and the few that do have had next to no problems. So why/how exactly are they "garbage"? There are Uber drivers that stalk and rape too, will an autonomous car do that? Why would companies that sell cars like the Mustang, 911, Miata "phase out" human driven cars if there is still a market for them? None of your complaints or proclamations are rooted in reality or reason and it's getting tiring of hearing the same autonomous car fallacies over and over.
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AutobahnSHO

+1 to sporty

I think mandatory is a long way off.
Will

Gotta-Qik-C7

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on November 06, 2015, 04:32:17 AM
All the people who don't want to drive or have no business behind a wheel would be taken out of the game bit by bit.
This......
2014 C7 Vert, 2002 Silverado, 2005 Road Glide

MrH


Quote from: HotRodPilot on November 06, 2015, 06:24:46 AM
I mean you hop in, tell the car the address you want to go to or have programmed in by name and sit back and it goes, in good weather.

I just can't get over how many companies with really smart people are throwing money at it. Maybe if it was just one or two I could relate it to the flying car, but it's a huge push from all over. They must be able to be seeing a return on investment for this stuff.

It's a total game changer. It's huge. The second what you described above is possible, the concept of everyone owning a car goes out the window.

99% of the time your car is parked. A fleet of 50 of these self driving cars combined with Uber can replace hundreds of personally owned cars. I wouldn't own a daily driver if it was cheaper to just get picked up and driven automatically everywhere.

Someone on here said it best awhile back. Driving cars will be like horse back riding at some point. A hobby for the rich.
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12,000 RPM

I just don't know about self driving becoming fringe. Last year in the US they sold about half a million "sporty" cars like the pony cars, Miata, WRX, GTI etc. There were also half a million motorcycles sold last year, in the US, where we generally hate them. There is still a huge market for driver's vehicles in the "working man's" market.

What I do hope is that self driving cars will enable drivers cars to become more extreme and less compromised. Things open up a lot when you don't need a car to be any and everything.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Laconian

Coexistence won't make sense once autonomous cars hit a certain tipping point. The advantages of networking a bunch of cars together are too major to be ignored. You could have cars traveling at higher densities, at higher rates of speed, than they could if they were assuming every other car is manned by a falliable human. You could probably do away with stoplights completely!
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shp4man

This is where the future is going? Count me out. I will likely not live long enough to see it anyway. Ironically, I won't be able to drive at age 95 anyway, if I go that far.  :huh:

And get off my lawn... ;)


280Z Turbo

Well, this planet is going to be fried by the sun in 1.1 billion years anyway.

Raza

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on November 06, 2015, 07:33:44 AM
When it comes to threads on autonomous cars you might as well just copy and paste "FUD & control issues" over and over. Autonomous cars barely exist, and the few that do have had next to no problems. So why/how exactly are they "garbage"? There are Uber drivers that stalk and rape too, will an autonomous car do that? Why would companies that sell cars like the Mustang, 911, Miata "phase out" human driven cars if there is still a market for them? None of your complaints or proclamations are rooted in reality or reason and it's getting tiring of hearing the same autonomous car fallacies over and over.

How can they be fallacies if there is no reality of widespread autonomous car market? 

Also, do you really think there will be a "market" for cars like the Miata?  If human-driven cars aren't made illegal, they will become prohibitively expensive and likely track-use only.  If you look at how stickshift cars are basically nonexistent now, actual real cars will be even harder to find.

What's "FUD"?

And if you don't want to see my posts on autonomous car threads, ignore me.  You post up, I'm going to reply, because self driving cars are the dumbest fucking idea ever. 
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
If you can read this, you're too close


2006 BMW Z4 3.0i
http://accelerationtherapy.squarespace.com/   @accelerationdoc
Quote from: the Teuton on October 05, 2009, 03:53:18 PM
It's impossible to argue with Raza. He wins. Period. End of discussion.