Autonomous Cars

[Raza]

Who said alarmism? I just think it will come sooner than you do.

I'm alarmed.

[GoCougs]

Just because we made big tech steps in the past doesn't guarantee anything. By that logic we should have had nuclear powered flying cars by now. And the big hurdles to autonomous cars aren't technological. The tech is easy and is pretty much here already. The challenge will be, among other things, destroying/retrofitting/replacing the 300+ million cars on the road, especially as folks keep cars for longer and longer. Even if you assume that all auto makers will come out with full lineups of automated cars next year, and that everyone who buys a new car next year gets an automated one, it would take at least 20 years to replace everything on the road. Similarly we don't spend money on infrastructure as is so anything that requires infrastructure reconfiguration is out. I think we will continue to see what we already have- increasingly sophisticated driver's aids at bite away at more and more of the requirement of actually driving without completely (and legally) replacing it. There is already cruise control, lane departure control, automatic braking and I think Volvo just came out with stop and go traffic cruise. There is parallol parking and stuff as well. But as this article shows even with how far tech has come there is still a long way to go with that, and that is on top of the huge logistical and legal issues I mentioned. The autonomous alarmism is not warranted.

Word, save that the alarmisim is a bit warranted, as fad is a strong driver of unseemly government action (think of such boondoggles like ethanol and Solyndra).

Truly autonomous cars have three requirements - standardized roadway infrastructure, inter-vehicle communications, widespread/universal adoption - that will keep as pipe dreams for many many years.

[AutobahnSHO]

Lol no. GPS and super-high bandwidth wireless communications will null most requirements.

Verizon plans to start testing 5g in 2017. 17 times faster than 4g....

GPS already shows me what the road looks like. Very little standardization needed.

[12,000 RPM]

Lol no. GPS and super-high bandwidth wireless communications will null most requirements.

Verizon plans to start testing 5g in 2017. 17 times faster than 4g....

GPS already shows me what the road looks like. Very little standardization needed.

GPS gives you a rough idea of where the road is. Plus you need a GPS signal for it to work. So wireless data is irrelevant. The system can use GPS but it can't rely on it.

And fast wireless data doesn't overcome the issues of legal hurdles and high adoption speeds for this to happen at the pace that's necessary for us to see widespread adoption in our lifetimes. I see increased adoption/penetration but full on assimilation is indeed a pipe dream.

[AutobahnSHO]

GPS gives you a rough idea of where the road is. Plus you need a GPS signal for it to work. So wireless data is irrelevant. The system can use GPS but it can't rely on it.

GPS is currently good to 30ft. GPS signal comes from the sky, if you have a clear view of the sky it works. Cellphone towers can give an even better fix on location, if providers want to.

And fast wireless data doesn't overcome the issues of legal hurdles and high adoption speeds for this to happen at the pace that's necessary for us to see widespread adoption in our lifetimes. I see increased adoption/penetration but full on assimilation is indeed a pipe dream.

Disagree. My car has a more powerful computer in it than NASA used to go to the moon.  Legacy's computer was designed to do impossible for human calculations of when to fire sparkplugs, when to adjust all kinds of variables etc...

The ONLY issue with autonomous cars at this point is integration on the same streets as unpredictable human drivers.  The Google cars and MB's self-driving semi truck do just fine on the roads by themselves.

[12,000 RPM]

GPS is currently good to 30ft. GPS signal comes from the sky, if you have a clear view of the sky it works. Cellphone towers can give an even better fix on location, if providers want to.

Disagree. My car has a more powerful computer in it than NASA used to go to the moon.  Legacy's computer was designed to do impossible for human calculations of when to fire sparkplugs, when to adjust all kinds of variables etc...

The ONLY issue with autonomous cars at this point is integration on the same streets as unpredictable human drivers.  The Google cars and MB's self-driving semi truck do just fine on the roads by themselves.

The only issue? So getting rid of 300 million cars and developing the legal framework for liability has already been figured out? Like I said the tech is already here for the most part. It's the implementation that is the problem. Would you let the govt scrap your cars and force you to buy 2-3 brand new autonomous rides tomorrow?

[AutobahnSHO]

The only issue? So getting rid of 300 million cars and developing the legal framework for liability has already been figured out? Like I said the tech is already here for the most part. It's the implementation that is the problem. Would you let the govt scrap your cars and force you to buy 2-3 brand new autonomous rides tomorrow?

Ok, so not only issue. It's the biggest hurdle though.

-most people buy new cars every 2-3 years anyway. I'm an anomaly that I've had the same since 2008.
-the liability piece will be worked out by corporate lawyers. They're already on it, long before the google car stopped at the first stop sign....

[GoCougs]

GPS gives you a rough idea of where the road is. Plus you need a GPS signal for it to work. So wireless data is irrelevant. The system can use GPS but it can't rely on it.

And fast wireless data doesn't overcome the issues of legal hurdles and high adoption speeds for this to happen at the pace that's necessary for us to see widespread adoption in our lifetimes. I see increased adoption/penetration but full on assimilation is indeed a pipe dream.

GPS? Where the car is is irrelevant to the discussion. Variation in roads even in just a particular area is immense - black vs. gray pavement, horizontal vs. vertical traffic lights, LED vs. incandescent traffic lights, fog lines and/or lane markers vs. not, blinking yellow vs. not, etc., etc., plus the variation in weather and road conditions is just as immense. Now sum that over the whole of the USA. lol - on autonomous cars on being anything other than a curiosity for many years to come.

[AutobahnSHO]

GPS? Where the car is is irrelevant to the discussion. Variation in roads even in just a particular area is immense - black vs. gray pavement, horizontal vs. vertical traffic lights, LED vs. incandescent traffic lights, fog lines and/or lane markers vs. not, blinking yellow vs. not, etc., etc., plus the variation in weather and road conditions is just as immense. Now sum that over the whole of the USA. lol - on autonomous cars on being anything other than a curiosity for many years to come.

LOL road color doesn't matter. You're thinking everything guided by cameras. Once all cars are automated there is no need for cameras, except to identify unexpected pedestrians or deer etc...

As long as the car knows where it is (GPS or magnetic guidance,) and controls become automated for autonomous cars (wireless signal replacing traffic lights, etc...) the cameras won't matter.   

[Morris Minor]

The next car I buy, whenever that will be, will have as many of the safety gadgets as I can find: collision avoidance, lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, night vision, radar, cameras, etc.

The reason for this is my age. Your driving skills peak around your 40s - good balance of reaction times, mental acuity, emotional control, & experience. Now I'm 59 and I recognize that my perception and reaction times aren't exactly going to improve. So I figure, if the tech is out there, and it's viable, why not use it?

[AutobahnSHO]

The next car I buy, whenever that will be, will have as many of the safety gadgets as I can find: collision avoidance, lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, night vision, radar, cameras, etc.

The reason for this is my age. Your driving skills peak around your 40s - good balance of reaction times, mental acuity, emotional control, & experience. Now I'm 59 and I recognize that my perception and reaction times aren't exactly going to improve. So I figure, if the tech is out there, and it's viable, why not use it?

It's a great Idea- Kevin loves the stuff on his Outback. My in-laws were showing off the blindspot indicator on their Sorrento, seems handy.
(Beeps at you if you put blinker on when someone is next to you)

[shp4man]

And now we have the Tesla "hands off" crash that shows this technology has a way to go. 

[Payman]

And now we have the Tesla "hands off" crash that shows this technology has a way to go. 

From the sound of it the guy was really pushing his luck.

[shp4man]

From the sound of it the guy was really pushing his luck.

Watching Harry Potter from what I understand. 

[Morris Minor]

Watching Harry Potter from what I understand. 

On a portable DVD player...  If that's true, it's beyond facepalm

[Raza]

Harry Potter is really good though. That Hermione....

[Soup DeVille]

On a portable DVD player...  If that's true, it's beyond facepalm

Well the built in player is disabled when the car is in drive, what choice did he have?

[MX793]

Well the built in player is disabled when the car is in drive, what choice did he have?

I assume it was playing through the dash screen, though?  In which case, that implies that the aux video input is still enabled.

[veeman]

In autopilot mode if you have to have your hands on the wheel and looking at the road as if you are driving, wouldn't you rather just be driving?

[Laconian]

Harry Potter is really good though. That Hermione....

You'd better not be referring to her in the Sorcerer's Stone.

[Raza]

You'd better not be referring to her in the Sorcerer's Stone.

No, no.  The later years. 

But you could tell, even then, that she'd grow up hot.  By the Prisoner of Bob Balaban, it was cemented that she was going to look fantastic, even if you couldn't admit it in polite company. 

[MX793]

In autopilot mode if you have to have your hands on the wheel and looking at the road as if you are driving, wouldn't you rather just be driving?

The intent is to reduce fatigue by not forcing the driver to devote as much attention to the road.  At least according to Tesla.

[Raza]

In autopilot mode if you have to have your hands on the wheel and looking at the road as if you are driving, wouldn't you rather just be driving?

Yes.

[Raza]

The intent is to reduce fatigue by not forcing the driver to devote as much attention to the road.  At least according to Tesla.

I contend that it makes it more difficult to concentrate on potential road hazards. 

[MX793]

I contend that it makes it more difficult to concentrate on potential road hazards. 

Autopilot or watching Harry Potter?

[Soup DeVille]

I assume it was playing through the dash screen, though?  In which case, that implies that the aux video input is still enabled.

I don't know.

Never tried that in my wife's car ( a GM, but I'm assuming the same laws pertain)

[Raza]

Autopilot or watching Harry Potter?

Either or, really. 

[Morris Minor]

The War For Autonomous Driving: 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class VS. 2017 Tesla Model S

Looking for a comparison of the 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class and the 2016 Tesla Model S? This is not that. Both are brilliant, gorgeous cars—best-of-breed luxury sedans in the war between internal combustion and electricity—but who cares?

The future belongs to Autonomous Driving.

The 2017 E-Class is the first Mercedes-Benz available with Drive Pilot—the brand name for their latest semi-Autonomous Driving (AD) suite—and is the first direct assault on Tesla's Autopilot, which has captured the public's imagination, for better or worse, since its release in 2015.

More... http://www.thedrive.com/tech/4591/the-war-for-autonomous-driving-2017-mercedes-benz-e-class-vs-2017-tesla-model-s

[AutobahnSHO]

The War For Autonomous Driving: 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class VS. 2017 Tesla Model S

Excellent article!

"The nice thing about parachutes is that there actually are parachute standards, courtesy of the Parachute Industry Association. A parachute works, or it doesn't.

No such standard exists for A(utonomous) D(riving)."

[Byteme]

I contend that it makes it more difficult to concentrate on potential road hazards.

Last Sunday we were on the interstate just South of San Jose, CA, Interstate, moderate traffic, about 70 MPH.  I'm in the right lane, ahead of me maybe a car length in the center lane is a pickup with a load of treasures from Ikea.  Quicker than you can say "Oh, sh*t" a headboard in a box flies out of the bed and across the grill of the CLK.  I swerved and braked and the thing missed the front of the car by maybe 3-4 feet as it sailed from my left to right.  I wonder how autonomous cars are going to handle that kind of stuff?   Would I have been as alert to dangers if I had sat back and let the car handle the driving duties?  Probably not.

It's probably also worth noting that GPS signals are lost in tunnels and where you have high bluffs on both sides of the car.