BMW Says The Days Of Manuals And DCTs Are Numbered

[Tave]

Well, if the goal it to chase ever higher performance and efficiency, manuals are definitely on the way out.

DCTs are interesting but it'd be mega complicated to make them have the smoothness and driveability of a slushie AT.

The 8 sp ZF slushie was the tipping point and the new GM/Ford 10 sp AT in the ZL1 looks to be the beginning of the end.

Bingo. But by what metric? Is the added weight, complexity, and cost of repair worth it in exchange for the 1-2mpg improvement in EPA-cycle testing?

Why shouldn't our goal be to build a simple, robust, cheap-to-repair transmission that also gets decent mileage? You know, like a manual...

I think it has way more to do with market demand. There's not enough people who know how to drive stick or have the desire to learn.

[CaminoRacer]

Bingo. But by what metric? Is the added weight, complexity, and cost of repair worth it in exchange for the 1-2mpg improvement in EPA-cycle testing?

Why shouldn't our goal be to build a simple, robust, cheap-to-repair transmission that also gets decent mileage? You know, like a manual...

I think it has way more to do with market demand. There's not enough people who know how to drive stick or have the desire to learn.

Ain't that the truth. My manual transmission weighs half as much as an old automatic - probably 1/3 as much as a new auto.

[12,000 RPM]

Ain't that the truth. My manual transmission weighs half as much as an old automatic - probably 1/3 as much as a new auto.

Old auto, sure. New auto, sincerely doubt it. That gap has been pretty much closed.

[CaminoRacer]

Old auto, sure. New auto, sincerely doubt it. That gap has been pretty much closed.

Weight? 10 speed auto has gotta be YUUUUGGGGEEE

[68_427]

Weight? 10 speed auto has gotta be YUUUUGGGGEEE

It's about the same size as their old 6 speed

[CaminoRacer]

It's about the same size as their old 6 speed

Huh, nice. Okay, so only twice as heavy

[68_427]

Huh, nice. Okay, so only twice as heavy

It's like 220-230lbs.  At least the version in the Raptor is.

[12,000 RPM]

Yea new autos are small. Thank you based metallurgy

[Tave]

Small? The six speed in my Miata is probably only like 70 pounds. The big beefy Tremec 7spd GM is pairing with the 8 and 10spd autos is a svelte 140 pounds.

A ~100 pound weight savings on a single part is absolutely enormous. And not only is the manual lighter; it's cheaper to maintain, cheaper to repair, less likely to fail, and carries little-to-no real world performance penalty. From an object engineering costs standpoint, it's a no-brainer. But people by and large will pay a premium to deal with the added complexity because they value transmission automation highly.

With the advent of widespread electric cars and fully autonomous driving, I predict the AT to be a dead-end itself, anyways.

[r0tor]

Yea, traditional manuals are much heavier then manuals and DCT's and also manuals typically don't have transmission cooler that further adds to the weight and also thermal issues.

[Rich]

Small? The six speed in my Miata is probably only like 70 pounds. The big beefy Tremec 7spd GM is pairing with the 8 and 10spd autos is a svelte 140 pounds.

A ~100 pound weight savings on a single part is absolutely enormous. And not only is the manual lighter; it's cheaper to maintain, cheaper to repair, less likely to fail, and carries little-to-no real world performance penalty. From an object engineering costs standpoint, it's a no-brainer. But people by and large will pay a premium to deal with the added complexity because they value transmission automation highly.

With the advent of widespread electric cars and fully autonomous driving, I predict the AT to be a dead-end itself, anyways.

😂  Come on man. The Miata transmission has to handle about 170lb/ft. Those GM transmissions handle 700. I think transmissions in general weigh a bit more than that too

I agree with the rest.

[Soup DeVille]

I've had more problems with manual transmissions (mostly used) than automatics to be honest. Adding that human factor makes reliability more of a question mark; plus everyone knows the clutch is a wear item.

[Tave]

😂  Come on man. The Miata transmission has to handle about 170lb/ft. Those GM transmissions handle 700. I think transmissions in general weigh a bit more than that too

I agree with the rest.

Don't c'mon man me, I quoted the weight of the Tremec 7spd that handles the same power, and GM/Ford will cram the 8 spd ZF or the new 10 spd into any and everything they can if people are willing to pay for it, regardless of power output.

[CaminoRacer]

Most modern manuals are gonna be in between the Miata's and the GM 7 speed. Like 100 lbs probably. Light enough for one guy to install it, versus a guaranteed two man job for an automatic.

[Tave]

I've had more problems with manual transmissions (mostly used) than automatics to be honest. Adding that human factor makes reliability more of a question mark; plus everyone knows the clutch is a wear item.

I've had to replace a few clutches as well, but they have a fairly predictable service life and are relatively inexpensive. Never had any synchro or gear issues but I've known a couple people who have. Mind you, I can count them on one hand, while I've heard of so many people replacing or rebuilding their automatic that I'm honestly not sure if it's in the hundreds or thousands. That anecdotal experience seems to be backed up by the numbers, although admittedly the newest autos might have taken a quantum leap forward in reliability and we won't know until 5-10 yrs down the road when the data is in.

[2o6]

Yeah, even CVT autos are somehow starting to become fairly reliable.

[Soup DeVille]

I've had to replace a few clutches as well, but they have a fairly predictable service life and are relatively inexpensive. Never had any synchro or gear issues but I've known a couple people who have. Mind you, I can count them on one hand, while I've heard of so many people replacing or rebuilding their automatic that I'm honestly not sure if it's in the hundreds or thousands. That anecdotal experience seems to be backed up by the numbers, although admittedly the newest autos might have taken a quantum leap forward in reliability and we won't know until 5-10 yrs down the road when the data is in.

Part of that is that there are so many more automatics in service. Just my experience of course, but all in all, when considering clutch service and linkage/cable issues, the automatics are maybe slightly less troublesome.

[12,000 RPM]

I think modern automatics are as, if not more reliable than manuals when you factor in the clutch. Between economy of scale and general design/manufacturing/metallurgy advances there's really nothing to fear in an automatic anymore IMO. It's now to the point where all we can ding them for is less than perfect shift quality/programming (i.e. ZF 9AT)

[FoMoJo]

I think modern automatics are as, if not more reliable than manuals when you factor in the clutch. Between economy of scale and general design/manufacturing/metallurgy advances there's really nothing to fear in an automatic anymore IMO. It's now to the point where all we can ding them for is less than perfect shift quality/programming (i.e. ZF 9AT)

My ZF 9 shifts perfectly.

[Cookie Monster]

3 of my 4 cars have had transmission problems.

To be fair the newest of those 3 was 23 years old when I bought it...

[Tave]

I've had a variety of 7spd+ autos as rentals lately and good gracious they've been absolutely miserable in terms of smoothness and anticipation. Laughable really.

I have no doubt that a few companies have programmed the ZF8spd to be as silky as advertised, but I'm wondering if that's going to prove the exception rather than the rule. It seems like the average auto has taken a quantum leap backwards in areas that were traditional strong suits.

[12,000 RPM]

The 7AT in the G is worse than good. Thankfully it has enough HP and aggression in the programming to over come that. But yea, ZF8 is in another league.

[SJ_GTI]

The 7AT in the G is worse than good. Thankfully it has enough HP and aggression in the programming to over come that. But yea, ZF8 is in another league.

I think the programming is as important as the hardware. I've driven the ZF 8-speed in a few BMW's and Audi's and it didn't seem like much to write home about. Smooth enough but not particularly responsive (compared to DSG/DCT). Supposedly the Guilia shifts much quicker though.

[cawimmer430]

Random question about automatics - what's the best way to wear them out quickly?

Because I do what I can to prolong the transmission life in my car - and I hope what I am doing will help keep it functional for a long period of time. For example, instead of keeping it in "D" 24/7 during long city/traffic stops, I always shift into "N" like you would in with a manual transmission in those situations.

Is that advisable?

I do this because I feel that keeping it in "D" means...

1) Less wear and tear on the brakes...

2) Less wear and tear on the driveshaft...


Of course my constant high-speed Autobahn speeding probably isn't doing the transmission life any favors, but so far it's holding up fine.

[12,000 RPM]

Yea I don't know that shifting into N does anything. Might actually be worse than leaving it alone.

[cawimmer430]

Yea I don't know that shifting into N does anything. Might actually be worse than leaving it alone.

But when I keep it in "D" I feel that I am unnecessarily causing wear and tear on some components. Shifting into "N" leads me to think that I am doing the components a favor because the driveshaft isn't turning and the brakes don't have to stop wheels that would be attempting to rotate.

[Tave]

Random question about automatics - what's the best way to wear them out quickly?

Because I do what I can to prolong the transmission life in my car - and I hope what I am doing will help keep it functional for a long period of time. For example, instead of keeping it in "D" 24/7 during long city/traffic stops, I always shift into "N" like you would in with a manual transmission in those situations.

Is that advisable?

I do this because I feel that keeping it in "D" means...

1) Less wear and tear on the brakes...

2) Less wear and tear on the driveshaft...


Of course my constant high-speed Autobahn speeding probably isn't doing the transmission life any favors, but so far it's holding up fine.

Doing what you are doing--dropping the car into D from N while driving--is the best way to wear it out quickly. It's pretty much the only way you as the driver can damage an auto other than excessive torque-brake launching.

Holding a stationary car at rest causes no additional wear and tear on your brakes.

By trying to fix an imaginary problem you're risking serious damage to the tranmission.

[shp4man]

But when I keep it in "D" I feel that I am unnecessarily causing wear and tear on some components. Shifting into "N" leads me to think that I am doing the components a favor because the driveshaft isn't turning and the brakes don't have to stop wheels that would be attempting to rotate.

You aren't really preserving anything by doing that. Get one of those autostart/autostop vehicles.

[GoCougs]

I think the programming is as important as the hardware. I've driven the ZF 8-speed in a few BMW's and Audi's and it didn't seem like much to write home about. Smooth enough but not particularly responsive (compared to DSG/DCT). Supposedly the Guilia shifts much quicker though.

In a slushie AT however, programming is limited by the hardware. Slushies work on pressures and actuators/solenoids and fluid bodies and clutches, and to support more aggressive/responsive programming the corresponding elements have to more aggressive/responsive (stronger, higher quality, quicker, etc.).

[GoCougs]

But when I keep it in "D" I feel that I am unnecessarily causing wear and tear on some components. Shifting into "N" leads me to think that I am doing the components a favor because the driveshaft isn't turning and the brakes don't have to stop wheels that would be attempting to rotate.

In theory you'll actually cause more wear by doing that. When you sit in D at a standstill there is no wear on brakes or drive shaft as the engine just spins against the torque converter. When you shift to/from N you actually engage clutches, and in theory that causes a minute amount of wear. In reality though, neither method will cause more wear than the other, but it's simply less hassle to just leave the car in D.