The end of the internal combustion engine

[mzziaz]

An interesting read: https://shift.newco.co/amp/p/38b843bd4fe0

TL;DR

EVs are far more reliable than ICE cars.
When autonomous cars arrive, transportation costs will be drastically cheaper.
Car ownership will die.
It will happen fast.
Big oil will be in trouble.

[giant_mtb]

It will not happen fast.  Car ownership will not die.

Who's going to buy 10k+ autonomous cars to get every individual in my area to work each morning?  lol nobody.

[mzziaz]

It all depends on autonomous driving. If that pans out, it will happen fast.

[shp4man]

An interesting read: https://shift.newco.co/amp/p/38b843bd4fe0

TL;DR

EVs are far more reliable than ICE cars.
When autonomous cars arrive, transportation costs will be drastically cheaper.
Car ownership will die.
It will happen fast.
Big oil will be in trouble.

Interesting. But where will the power to charge all those batteries come from?    I know!   Unicorns and Rainbows! 

[CaminoRacer]

And they'll also fly

[12,000 RPM]

An interesting read: https://shift.newco.co/amp/p/38b843bd4fe0

TL;DR

EVs are far more reliable than ICE cars.
When autonomous cars arrive, transportation costs will be drastically cheaper.
Car ownership will die.
It will happen fast.
Big oil will be in trouble.

If those are the cliff notes I dont even have to read the article.

1. Planes are more reliable than cars, but we all drive to work
2/3/4. It won't happen fast. Off the top of my head there are a shitload of issues slowing down this conversion.

- Lithium scarcity
- The monumental gulf to the viability of Level 5 autonomy from where we are now
- Lack of faith in autonomous tech (currently for good reason)
- Limitations in manufacturing capacity- in the US we have 300M private cars; even if everyone abandoned them overnight for ride sharing the industry can only crank out ~25M cars a year, and that's a generous estimate
- Range and charging

Etc.

Don't become to EVs what shippy has become to Trump or r0tor has become to Tesla, we are already at capacity for zealotry here

[AutobahnSHO]

It will take a while for everything to start that direction, but once they take off it will be WHAM FAST!!!

[mzziaz]

If those are the cliff notes I dont even have to read the article.

1. Planes are more reliable than cars, but we all drive to work
2/3/4. It won't happen fast. Off the top of my head there are a shitload of issues slowing down this conversion.

- Lithium scarcity
- The monumental gulf to the viability of Level 5 autonomy from where we are now
- Lack of faith in autonomous tech (currently for good reason)
- Limitations in manufacturing capacity- in the US we have 300M private cars; even if everyone abandoned them overnight for ride sharing the industry can only crank out ~25M cars a year, and that's a generous estimate
- Range and charging

Etc.

Don't become to EVs what shippy has become to Trump or r0tor has become to Tesla, we are already at capacity for zealotry here

It is only uncertainty about  level 5 autonomy which is a valid counterpoint, imo.

However, EVs will probably still come fast, because they most likely will offer cheaper transportation than ICE counterparts.

[giant_mtb]

EVs and autonomous cars are not the same thing.  To say that the end of the ICE is near because EVs are on the rise is fine...but to then say that "car ownership will die"....nah, man.  Relax.

[Galaxy]

EVs and autonomous cars are not the same thing.  To say that the end of the ICE is near because EVs are on the rise is fine...but to then say that "car ownership will die"....nah, man.  Relax.

This.

I have no doubt that shared ownership models for cars will rise, but for many people there are to many downsides. For example one always has to remove the child seats, and the kids drawing set from the vehicle after every ride.

[GoCougs]

I have to say, this is a fairly ignorant piece if but for nothing else than if the West manages to self-loath itself out of using fossil fuels, the other half of the planet will be throttle down on fossil fuels for the next few centuries - Africa, SE Asia and China will not see their cultures rise with EVs and solar panels and the like. Big Oil and fossil fuels will never die - there are 3B+ people who need to come into the 21st century. 

As to the other bits, EV tech has been around for more than 100 years, and yet here we are, w/EVs still but a curiosity, plus, as I've mentioned before, the analogy to hybrids is apt - 15 years since the first Prius and hybrids are still but a curiosity as well. Autonomous driving won't ever happen w/out catastrophic levels of government spending and regulation.

As to EVs themselves, batteries are of course the deal breaker - too heavy, too expensive, too inefficient, they still pollute o' plenty, and there is no path to getting them to be materially better. There needs to be a Mr. Fusion-like breakthrough before EVs (on their own merit) can hope to be more than a curiosity. EVs will likely be less expensive to own however, which would be a bonus.

[12,000 RPM]

This.

I have no doubt that shared ownership models for cars will rise, but for many people there are to many downsides. For example one always has to remove the child seats, and the kids drawing set from the vehicle after every ride.

The whole child seat thing is long overdue for an update. I'm sure with all the families they can make some cars with fixed child seats.

But after actually starting to read the article.... whew. "I got time today cuz". We are going to emulsify this thing word by word. Just off the rip, ICE are complicated.... to people who don't understand cars. The electronics of an EV would be no less bewildering to some clueless tech blogger. But I'll be bak

[Lebowski]

The whole child seat thing is long overdue for an update. I'm sure with all the families they can make some cars with fixed child seats.

You (or your wife) gonna strap your kid into a carseat that countless strangers have barfed and had explosive diarrhea all over?  Carseats can get gross.  Plus people take them out of the base and use them as a carrier, clip them into a stroller etc. A universal base would make sense but they don't seem to be going that way.

Beyond carseats just think of the amount of personal "stuff" many people have in their cars, esp on longer trips/vacations etc. I don't want to load my shit in and out of a glorified taxi each time we head out.

[giant_mtb]

Gross. I never considered that angle. It'd be like strapping your kid down to a McDonald's ball pit.

[12,000 RPM]

Fair point about the car seat- permanent one is no go. But agreeing on a single base to snap the seat into, rather than those tether hooks, seems like a smarter idea. And again everyone doesn't have the luxury of buying their own car; plenty of parents rely on public transportation. For people of limited economic means with a shorter "future time orientation", the idea of paying per ride vs paying a car note makes a lot more sense. And the economics may still work for people who can afford their own cars.

Anyways after a long ass bike ride, I don't want to break this article down. Don't have the energy. However, an ICE is simpler than something a cell phone for example, if we are going to count every single nut and bolt (or transistor and capacitor). But we don't question the cell phone's viability or future. There is just too much breathless convenient speculation in this article to attack.

[12,000 RPM]

I have to say, this is a fairly ignorant piece if but for nothing else than if the West manages to self-loath itself out of using fossil fuels

Of course... nobody can be legitimately concerned about man made climate change; they just hate themselves. This is the kind of reductive ad-hominem you bitched about the left lobbing at Trump supporters.... how quaint of you to turn around and do the same

[mzziaz]

I doubt I'll buy another ICE car, with the exception of something fun for leisurely use.

With the incentives EV cars have here, it makes financial sense, and I rather enjoy the driving characteristics.

[GoCougs]

Again, the premise doesn't hold. Most if not the vast majority of the market has no interest in EVs, autonomous cars, or driving/sharing services. Why should the whole of the culture be upended to accommodate such a relative few?

I get that WtP are desperate for the next Big Thing but this isn't it.

[12,000 RPM]

Yea, I think Norway's appetite, geography and infrastructure make EVs feel a lot more viable than they are in the rest of the world.

The fact that much of that appetite is fueled by govt incentives kind of says it all.

[Lebowski]

I doubt I'll buy another ICE car, with the exception of something fun for leisurely use.

With the incentives EV cars have here, it makes financial sense, and I rather enjoy the driving characteristics.

If they are so efficient why are they subsidized?

[mzziaz]

If they are so efficient why are they subsidized?

Because they are more expensive to produce (for now).

[mzziaz]

Yea, I think Norway's appetite, geography and infrastructure make EVs feel a lot more viable than they are in the rest of the world.

The fact that much of that appetite is fueled by govt incentives kind of says it all.

Norwegian geography is not very EV friendly. It is the heavy incentives that fuel EV demand, combined with comparatively high gas taxes and low electricity costs.

[shp4man]

But seriously, where is the energy coming from to power the extra load on the power companies of a total electric car system? Natural gas? Renewables? Nukes? Oil?
I don't think renewables can do it. What's the point?
Don't know much about Scandinavian energy sources, I will admit.

[FoMoJo]

Yea, I think Norway's appetite, geography and infrastructure make EVs feel a lot more viable than they are in the rest of the world.

The fact that much of that appetite is fueled by govt incentives kind of says it all.

India...India is betting big on electric vehicles, but where does that leave the makers of hybrids?

Interesting article.

[mzziaz]

Hydroelectric energy, mostly.

[shp4man]

Hydroelectric energy, mostly.

It may be feasible then. 

[mzziaz]

India...India is betting big on electric vehicles, but where does that leave the makers of hybrids?

Interesting article.

Yes, that is pretty ambitious by Indian government. I'm glad they make plug in hybrids less attractive. Except  the Volt/Ampera, I have serious doubts about their eco friendliness m

[12,000 RPM]

But seriously, where is the energy coming from to power the extra load on the power companies of a total electric car system?

We already discussed this. Most people would charge their cars at night, which would actually be better for electrical grids. I posted this diagram in another discussion.



Utilities could easily incentivize and even lock out charging during peak times, and make better use of generators, which hate variations in load. Solar would help a ton in covering additional summer load. Only real loser in the electricity chain would be transmission, but the added use could fund much needed updates and maintenance.

[12,000 RPM]

Norwegian geography is not very EV friendly. It is the heavy incentives that fuel EV demand, combined with comparatively high gas taxes and low electricity costs.

The geography is more friendly. Average commute in Norway is about 9 miles; average commute in the US is about 15. And I personally know a lot of people who do a lot more. My wife's commute is 18 miles each way; mine is about 35; and I know people who travel 50+ miles each way. Norway is a smaller + more dense country.

And again, the fact that EV's demand is being driven by incentives, both directly and by artificially high gas costs, shows the demand is not real. If the govt paid me enough, I would drive an EV too That lack of real demand is probably the EV's biggest hurdle. PEople in the US want nothing to do with EVs that aren't Teslas or BMW i whatevers. And range anxiety is still legit + real. I'm not going to buy 2 cars just to have an EV.

[shp4man]

We already discussed this. Most people would charge their cars at night, which would actually be better for electrical grids. I posted this diagram in another discussion.



Utilities could easily incentivize and even lock out charging during peak times, and make better use of generators, which hate variations in load. Solar would help a ton in covering additional summer load. Only real loser in the electricity chain would be transmission, but the added use could fund much needed updates and maintenance.

Nice chart. Specially the notations.