The end of the internal combustion engine

[GoCougs]

Nice chart. Specially the notations. 

Plagerized but it's flattering .

[12,000 RPM]

Plagiarized from where?

[mzziaz]

The geography is more friendly. Average commute in Norway is about 9 miles; average commute in the US is about 15. And I personally know a lot of people who do a lot more. My wife's commute is 18 miles each way; mine is about 35; and I know people who travel 50+ miles each way. Norway is a smaller + more dense country.

And again, the fact that EV's demand is being driven by incentives, both directly and by artificially high gas costs, shows the demand is not real. If the govt paid me enough, I would drive an EV too That lack of real demand is probably the EV's biggest hurdle. PEople in the US want nothing to do with EVs that aren't Teslas or BMW i whatevers. And range anxiety is still legit + real. I'm not going to buy 2 cars just to have an EV.

I'm not even sure what your arguments are.
* Geography=commuting distances?
* Longer commutes somehow makes EVs less useful?
* Incentives create demand?
*  People will buy only status EVs?
* 200+ miles EV range still creates anxiety?

All of those are wrong except #3, which is the whole point of incentives.

[Galaxy]

Yeah, Norway is more like Wyoming with a Denver thrown in then Southern California.

[Raza]

An interesting read: https://shift.newco.co/amp/p/38b843bd4fe0

TL;DR

EVs are far more reliable than ICE cars.
When autonomous cars arrive, transportation costs will be drastically cheaper.
Car ownership will die.
It will happen fast.
Big oil will be in trouble.

There's your answer.  Big oil will be protected, so what you're talking about likely won't happen.

[Lebowski]

Because they are more expensive to produce (for now).

If they are only viable with significant subsidies as well as punitive taxation on gasoline, what does that tell you?

[FoMoJo]

If they are only viable with significant subsidies as well as punitive taxation on gasoline, what does that tell you?

I suppose it tells some people that pollution is a good trade off when something is cheaper to make.

[r0tor]

I suppose it tells some people that pollution is a good trade off when something is cheaper to make.

Americans always choose to pollute the shit out of everything when it's cost effective to do so.   

[mzziaz]

If they are only viable with significant subsidies as well as punitive taxation on gasoline, what does that tell you?

That they aren't competitive yet without incentives in the marketplace.
However, I recently saw an analysis predicting cost parity between ICE and EV cars within a couple of years.

[12,000 RPM]

Cost parity is not an issue. We can get used Nissan Leafs for dirt cheap here, yet people still get shit like the Mitsubishi Mirage for more.

[Galaxy]

If they are only viable with significant subsidies as well as punitive taxation on gasoline, what does that tell you?

Many things require a leg up to get off the ground, and then become viable. The entire basis of the internet was bankrolled by governments.

[GoCougs]

That they aren't competitive yet without incentives in the marketplace.
However, I recently saw an analysis predicting cost parity between ICE and EV cars within a couple of years.

Hybrids have been (mostly) there for a while, and lo and behold, 15 years on, they're still pretty much only a curiosity in the marketplace.

200+ mile range helps but even if there was cost parity, there are still usage issues, such as "fill up" time, temp extremes and long distances.

To make any sort of rational (i.e., absent fascist intervention) and meaningful headway in the market (at least in the US) EVs will have to be equivalent to ICEs - cost, functionality, practicality - and at present there is no path to get there.

[FoMoJo]

Hybrids have been (mostly) there for a while, and lo and behold, 15 years on, they're still pretty much only a curiosity in the marketplace.

200+ mile range helps but even if there was cost parity, there are still usage issues, such as "fill up" time, temp extremes and long distances.

To make any sort of rational (i.e., absent fascist intervention) and meaningful headway in the market (at least in the US) EVs will have to be equivalent to ICEs - cost, functionality, practicality - and at present there is no path to get there.

There is always the possibility of making IC engines perfectly 'clean'... Undesirable emissions include unburned hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM).

Certainly, much progress has been made over the last few decades.  There may even be a feasible solution; a better catalytic converter?  How hard can that be?

Interesting article...The evolution of catalytic converters

[Lebowski]

That they aren't competitive

Wasn't the article you posted all about superior efficiency and simplicity?  I'm confused.  Free markets are pretty good at sorting this stuff out.

[GoCougs]

There is always the possibility of making IC engines perfectly 'clean'... Undesirable emissions include unburned hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM).

Certainly, much progress has been made over the last few decades.  There may even be a feasible solution; a better catalytic converter?  How hard can that be?

Interesting article...The evolution of catalytic converters

I'm not sure about "perfectly" clean but they can be cleaner, though I'm not sure how to get there. But really, just simply improved MPG is less total emissions.

[mzziaz]

Wasn't the article you posted all about superior efficiency and simplicity?  I'm confused.  Free markets are pretty good at sorting this stuff out.

What is your point? That EVs can never be competitive without incentives because they aren't today?

[Lebowski]

What is your point? That EVs can never be competitive without incentives because they aren't today?

My point is current market dynamics don't seem to support the thesis of the article.

If a given technology is economically viable, it doesn't need subsidies.

[Morris Minor]

I think the political push for getting rid of IC engines is huge and will only grow.
(On a prosaic note my neighbor ditched his gas lawnmower & replaced it with a battery-powered one - it has two plugin Li-ion packs. He loves it: quiet - no smelly gasoline & oil to worry about. As to longevity - I don't know)

[giant_mtb]

"Smelly gasoline."  Geeeez we're getting soft.  Oil?  Lawnmowers take like, what, a quart and a half?  You can get away with never even changing it if you want to.

[CaminoRacer]

I'd enjoy a quieter mower. It's a great opportunity to listen to music or podcasts, but I don't like to do that too often since you have turn the volume up a lot in order to drown out the engine.

[12,000 RPM]

Dealing with oil/gas on lawn equipment is a pain. My edger is the worst. Have to get + mix the 2 stroke oil, I have to wear earplugs to use it, and the vibration makes my hands numb. I think I'm gonna jump on an all electric kit once shit goes on sale this fall. It would be worth it for the edger alone.

[SJ_GTI]

I think the political push for getting rid of IC engines is huge and will only grow.
(On a prosaic note my neighbor ditched his gas lawnmower & replaced it with a battery-powered one - it has two plugin Li-ion packs. He loves it: quiet - no smelly gasoline & oil to worry about. As to longevity - I don't know)

I have had my electric lawnmower (B&D) for ~5 years now. The mower still works but a couple months ago I tried to take off the blade to sharpen it and it is stuck. The electric motor and batteries still work fine though. I am still using it, but the blade is dull so it is making mowing more difficult.

[Morris Minor]

Dealing with oil/gas on lawn equipment is a pain. My edger is the worst. Have to get + mix the 2 stroke oil, I have to wear earplugs to use it, and the vibration makes my hands numb. I think I'm gonna jump on an all electric kit once shit goes on sale this fall. It would be worth it for the edger alone.

i had a 4-cycle edger. It was not too bad. Needs ethanol-free gas though (or an additive).

[mzziaz]

Another prediction of EV world takeover.
https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21726071-it-had-good-run-end-sight-machine-changed-world-death

[giant_mtb]

I have had my electric lawnmower (B&D) for ~5 years now. The mower still works but a couple months ago I tried to take off the blade to sharpen it and it is stuck. The electric motor and batteries still work fine though. I am still using it, but the blade is dull so it is making mowing more difficult.

[GoCougs]

Another prediction of EV world takeover.
https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21726071-it-had-good-run-end-sight-machine-changed-world-death

But without logic, reason, and economics; in short, it's simply a wish by the author(s).

The "takeover" will only happen via fascist law.

[giant_mtb]

Another prediction of EV world takeover.
https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21726071-it-had-good-run-end-sight-machine-changed-world-death

Bunch of doom & gloom with no facts, just like everything else in the media today.

[r0tor]

At this point I would just settle for not getting stuck in traffic behind trucks with fuck tons of black smoke billowing out their exhaust stacks every time they go up a hill or start from a standstill.

But no, I will continue to have days shaved off my life because "oh boo hoo think about the poor trucking industry"

[giant_mtb]

Do you honestly believe that being behind a semi-truck in traffic takes days off your life?

Put your air on recirculate.

[12,000 RPM]

At this point I would just settle for not getting stuck in traffic behind trucks with fuck tons of black smoke billowing out their exhaust stacks every time they go up a hill or start from a standstill.

Then you should move............................

And trucks don't come out of the factory billowing black smoke. That's not a regulatory problem, that's a law enforcement problem.