Are people ACTUALLY buying Electric cars?

[Soup DeVille]

I feel like EV charging when people get to/home from work will create its own peak hours, which I doubt the current grid can handle.

Things can be optimized to a certain extent there. A "smart" charger might make an appointment of sorts to get X number of kWh between the hours of say-9 Pm and 5 AM even though its plugged in at 7.

But sooner or later we get reminded there aint no such thing as a free lunch.

[Laconian]

I feel like EV charging when people get to/home from work will create its own peak hours, which I doubt the current grid can handle.

Electric cars already have the ability to schedule their charging times. When you get home, your car will wait for the off-peak time (after everybody's done cooking & cooling their houses), then they'll start guzzling.

[giant_mtb]

For a practical engine, absolutely.

Mathematically, the numbers are more like 65% (my memory rounds numbers), but that's a carnot cycle engine (we don't know how to build them at all), running compression ratios of around 30:1 in an ideal state of tune (theoretically the exhaust temp at this point is exactly ambient)

Low speed diesel engines are more efficient at around 50%, but do so primarily by keeping pumping losses down and operating speeds around 60 RPM

2smoke everything.

[Soup DeVille]

Electric cars already have the ability to schedule their charging times. When you get home, your car will wait for the off-peak time (after everybody's done cooking & cooling their houses), then they'll start guzzling.

And that could be optimized further; all the EVs on a particular grid might coordinate their energy usage for instance.

[giant_mtb]

Things can be optimized to a certain extent there. A "smart" charger might make an appointment of sorts to get X number of kWh between the hours of say-9 Pm and 5 AM even though its plugged in at 7.

But sooner or later we get reminded there aint no such thing as a free lunch.

Electric cars already have the ability to schedule their charging times. When you get home, your car will wait for the off-peak time (after everybody's done cooking & cooling their houses), then they'll start guzzling.

Fair enough.

[Laconian]

Things can be optimized to a certain extent there. A "smart" charger might make an appointment of sorts to get X number of kWh between the hours of say-9 Pm and 5 AM even though its plugged in at 7.

But sooner or later we get reminded there aint no such thing as a free lunch.

Daytime/evening peaks are pretty peaky though. A/C is an energy hog.

[Soup DeVille]

Daytime/evening peaks are pretty peaky though. A/C is an energy hog.

Call me cynical, but the only real solution to a significant increase in electrical power is serious rebuilding of our transmission/distribution infrastructure; and that is going to be fought against tooth and nail while providers search for any solution they can.

[r0tor]

EVs charging at night would actually help the grid as there is a huge imbalance between daytime and nighttime loads which forces cycling of power plants

[Soup DeVille]

EVs charging at night would actually help the grid as there is a huge imbalance between daytime and nighttime loads which forces cycling of power plants

hmmm.

[12,000 RPM]

Charging stations are an end user issue; the real problem is producing and distributing that power in the first place. Rolling blackout/ ev central California will be the first to show how deep that problem can go.

Must I bust out my off-peak chart again? If people charge at night we already have a good bit of capacity built in that just goes unused. California's power problem, like most of its problems, are unique. Power companies would actually prefer more steady load, both for revenue and for planning.

[Soup DeVille]

Must I bust out my off-peak chart again? If people charge at night we already have a good bit of capacity built in that just goes unused. California's power problem, like most of its problems, are unique. Power companies would actually prefer more steady load, both for revenue and for planning.

Its not all going to be off-peak though. The point I was getting at was that you can only stretch the off peak use so far.

[GoCougs]

Go to the upper west coast and your opinion might change.

Yes, its still a small percentage; but it certainly is a lot more than it was four years ago.

His opinion will only be enforced - they're still mostly curiosities if not toys for rich(er) folk who turnaround and buy new (i.e., unrecycled) $1MM+ homes with gargantuan environmental footprints.

As I've been saying for forever, EVs and autonomous driving are DOA without some sort of catastrophic intervention by government.

[12,000 RPM]

Its not all going to be off-peak though. The point I was getting at was that you can only stretch the off peak use so far.

Not all, but probably most. If people are encouraged + incentivized to charge at home during off hours, they will charge at home during off hours. As for how far we can stretch off peak use, that depends on how many EVs come online, which is a whole other topic. Point is there is a lot of unused electric capacity that would work well for EV charging and the electric grid.

[AutobahnSHO]

As I've been saying for forever, EVs and autonomous driving are DOA without some sort of catastrophic intervention by government.

Or without catastrophic intervention of ultra high fuel prices and/or lack availability of fossil fuels.

[Onslaught]

If/when they start making them that run longer off a charge I'll get one and never look back.

[Rich]

BMW is planning their business model for 15-25% of the cars it makes to have electric drivetrains. I wonder why they think that is?  If demand for electric vehicles increases, then oil prices should decrease, which would drive people toward conventional drivetrains.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/bmws-modular-architecture-just-two-platforms-will-cover-all-models

[veeman]

BMW is planning their business model for 15-25% of the cars it makes to have electric drivetrains. I wonder why they think that is?  If demand for electric vehicles increases, then oil prices should decrease, which would drive people toward conventional drivetrains.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/bmws-modular-architecture-just-two-platforms-will-cover-all-models

That was an interesting read.  I don't think normal market forces are what's driving this push primarily.  It's China which is mandating electric vehicles and Western Europe which is mandating more and more strict emissions requirements and some European countries heavily incentivizing electric vehicles. 

[12,000 RPM]

I could see demand in Europe plummeting further as a result

I could live with an electric car

[SJ_GTI]

China is really pushing electric:

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/investing/china-germany-cars-tech/index.html

Top German carmakers including BMW (BMWYY) and Volkswagen (VLKAY) have inked a series of deals this week to continue developing electric and self-driving cars in China.

The flurry of commitments coincides with a trip to Berlin by Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, but it also reflects a growing recognition that China holds the key to the auto industry's future.

Factories in China produced about 25 million passenger cars last year, according to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers. China is already the top market for many global car brands, and its drivers purchase more electric vehicles than any other country.

BMW and Volkswagen have announced a total of six new deals this week alone.

...

A recent announcement that China would relax its rules on joint ventures — allowing foreign firms to operate with more independence in the country — has also attracted attention from foreign auto executives, including Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk.

Tesla said last year that it was in discussions with the Shanghai Municipal Government about building a factory, and on Tuesday it confirmed that it had reached agreement to build a plant. The company said it would take roughly two years for production to begin at the facility.

Its interesting because China is not really one of the cheapest places to manufacture anymore. It really is more about being in a place where you can just sell more stuff.

This article is a year old, but the trend is still that wages are growing faster in China than in most other places.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/16/china-wage-levels-equal-to-or-surpass-parts-of-europe/#63f1d553e7f1

This may be a glass half-full moment.  Either China is catching up to parts of Europe in terms of wages, or wages in the newest parts of the European Union are being capped by the global competition for labor, a competition that China wins, hands down. In reality, it's both.

China's median monthly wages in Shanghai ($1,135), Beijing ($983) and Shenzen ($938) are higher than they are in the newest European Union member, Croatia. Croatia's median net salary is $887 a month.  They joined the EU in 2013.

Shanghai's median wages, in particular, are also greater than two of the newest euro members in the Baltics: Lithuania ($956) and Latvia ($1,005), with Estonia, which joined the euro in 2011, recording a median income of $1,256 per month, according to government figures for 2016.

All those numbers might seem low to Americans, but they would be very high in Mexico, for example. I think Mexico is somewhere in the ~400-500/month range.

[SJ_GTI]

Whoops, speak of the devil:

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/news/companies/tesla-china-factory/index.html

For the first time, China will let a foreign automaker open up shop without a Chinese company as its partner.

Tesla has plans to open a plant in Shanghai that will one day crank out 500,000 vehicles a year — enough to rival the company's main plant in Fremont, California.

Tesla said it will be the sole owner of the factory. Until now, China has always required foreign companies to enter joint ventures with domestic companies.

Tesla expects to begin construction in the near future, after it gets the necessary government approvals. From there, the plant will take about two years to build and two to three more years to produce 500,000 vehicles a year.

[CaminoRacer]

"one day"

[giant_mtb]

Lol

Can't even build the cars they've already promised people.

Decides to build a factory in a foreign country.

[12,000 RPM]

Wow, surprised the median China salary is higher than it is in Croatia. Maybe I am colored by its beauty, but everywhere we saw in Croatia was really nice.

[SJ_GTI]

Wow, surprised the median China salary is higher than it is in Croatia. Maybe I am colored by its beauty, but everywhere we saw in Croatia was really nice.

There are usually very nice areas of any really poor country.

[Laconian]

He did travel around by car, so he probably saw the Real Croatia?

[12,000 RPM]

No car in Croatia, but we did stay in an AirBnB well off the beaten path.

[ChrisV]

All I know is I did buy one. In fact, I just bought my old Volt back for pennies on the dollar. And so I'm back to driving to work on cheap electrons.

[GoCougs]

Not exactly an electric car but sorta point taken .

How did you manage the theft recovery (i.e., how did it not get chopped within hours)?

[ChrisV]

I dunno. It got recovered in West Virginia nearly a year later and then sat in police impound for a year apparently. My insurance company never followed up on it so they lost all interest in it. Then it got sold at police auction and it's been passed around dealers all over the country and racked up 13k miles (all on the generator, mind you) before ending up at the dealer I saw it advertised at. THey were having problems selling it because the "clean carfax" said stolen/recovered and no one wanted to chance it. I thought it looked familiar when I looked at the ad, and ran the VIN against my previous paperwork. Lo and behold it WAS my old car. A few more dents and scratches than when I had it, but really only just dirty. Cleaned up nice and drove perfectly, so I told the dealership that I'd give them what they paid at auction for it and they took the deal.

I thought for sure that it had been sent off to China or Eastern Europe. As it was, the person that took it had removed the OnStar fuse so it couldn't be tracked.

[Lebowski]

Nice, awesome story.