EVs

Started by Morris Minor, November 08, 2018, 04:03:12 AM

GoCougs

Shame, as I think the Bolt is the best EV on the market overall.

GM's being overly cautious I'm sure because if EVs do take over the world (I'm still quite doubtful) they're screwed if their reputation is shot.  GM's been in enough and has seen rodeos to know that what the public thinks is 1000x more important than facts, data and logic (see truck gas tanks, Corvair, Pinto, etc.)

AutobahnSHO

That sucks as I've strongly been considering a bolt. Checks all the boxes for a third car lol.... :cry:
Will

r0tor

2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

veeman

Quote from: GoCougs on September 17, 2021, 12:04:46 PM
Shame, as I think the Bolt is the best EV on the market overall.

GM's being overly cautious I'm sure because if EVs do take over the world (I'm still quite doubtful) they're screwed if their reputation is shot.  GM's been in enough and has seen rodeos to know that what the public thinks is 1000x more important than facts, data and logic (see truck gas tanks, Corvair, Pinto, etc.)

It's not like GM makes any money on them (Bolts) anyways so if no one buys another Bolt they might actually save some cash.


GoCougs

Quote from: veeman on September 18, 2021, 08:18:30 AM
It's not like GM makes any money on them (Bolts) anyways so if no one buys another Bolt they might actually save some cash.

True, in the short term, but then again ALL automakers lose money on EVs.

In the long run should EV hegemony indeed by forced by government (which will include forced economics such as price controls, subsidies, etc.), automakers have to be ready with both product and sales volume, and the only way to do that is by selling EVs at a loss as they have been doing.

ChrisV

Well, my wife is on her way home from her road trip up to visit the grandkids and she's adamant we don't give the Bolt back. The risk of fire is still less than a hundredth of a percent, so she says we'll serve out the lease term and by then the other cars she wants will be on the market. She says she loves the little car and that we don't do what's causing the fires mostly, which is charging to 100% and dropping down to under 20%. She set the target charge to 90% and never lets it get under 25% anyhow, even on the road trips.
Like a fine Detroit wine, this vehicle has aged to budgetary perfection...

FoMoJo

Quote from: ChrisV on September 19, 2021, 09:37:12 AM
Well, my wife is on her way home from her road trip up to visit the grandkids and she's adamant we don't give the Bolt back. The risk of fire is still less than a hundredth of a percent, so she says we'll serve out the lease term and by then the other cars she wants will be on the market. She says she loves the little car and that we don't do what's causing the fires mostly, which is charging to 100% and dropping down to under 20%. She set the target charge to 90% and never lets it get under 25% anyhow, even on the road trips.
Still, it might be a good idea not to park it in your garage.
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once." ~ Albert Einstein
"As the saying goes, when you mix science and politics, you get politics."

ChrisV

Quote from: veeman on September 18, 2021, 08:18:30 AM
It's not like GM makes any money on them (Bolts) anyways so if no one buys another Bolt they might actually save some cash.

Actually that's wrong. They make as much money on them as VW does with the GTI. When the Bolt first came out in late 2016, the 60kWh battery pack was $18,000 of the cost of the car to GM, so they had to sell them at $35-40k to turn a profit. But that's when battery packs cost $300-400 per kWh. By 2020, that cost had come down to about $120/kWh, so the 2020 Bolts slightly larger 66kWh battery pack now cost GM about $8k, which is similar to the cost of the engine in a GTI and allowed them to start at $25k and still turn a profit.
Like a fine Detroit wine, this vehicle has aged to budgetary perfection...

ChrisV

Quote from: FoMoJo on September 19, 2021, 09:39:24 AM
Still, it might be a good idea not to park it in your garage.
It's never been parked in the garage. That's where the convertible lives.
Like a fine Detroit wine, this vehicle has aged to budgetary perfection...

Rich

Quote from: ChrisV on September 19, 2021, 09:41:59 AM
Actually that's wrong. They make as much money on them as VW does with the GTI. When the Bolt first came out in late 2016, the 60kWh battery pack was $18,000 of the cost of the car to GM, so they had to sell them at $35-40k to turn a profit. But that's when battery packs cost $300-400 per kWh. By 2020, that cost had come down to about $120/kWh, so the 2020 Bolts slightly larger 66kWh battery pack now cost GM about $8k, which is similar to the cost of the engine in a GTI and allowed them to start at $25k and still turn a profit.

Source?
2003 Mazda Miata 5MT; 2005 Subaru Impreza Outback Sport 4AT

ChrisV

Quote from: Rich on September 19, 2021, 09:53:24 AM
Source?

Look a the battery costs since 2010. It's well documented about the costs of Li batteries for cars. As is the size of the battery packs. So it's pretty easy to hit the old calculator.

Back in 2010 when the 2011 Volt came out, the 16kWh battery (that allowed a mere 39 miles of rated range) cost about $16k, as batteries at that time cost about $1000/kWh. The line of battery pack costs has been damn near linear.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/

QuoteHong Kong and London, December 16, 2020 – Lithium-ion battery pack prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 89% in real terms to $137/kWh in 2020. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, according to the latest forecast from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF).

That's average prices. GM's buy for the Bolts was the largest buy of EV battery packs at that point so their cost would have been a bit lower than average at about $120/kWh.
Like a fine Detroit wine, this vehicle has aged to budgetary perfection...

Rich




Quote from: ChrisV on September 19, 2021, 10:10:22 AM
Look a the battery costs since 2010. It's well documented about the costs of Li batteries for cars. As is the size of the battery packs. So it's pretty easy to hit the old calculator.

Back in 2010 when the 2011 Volt came out, the 16kWh battery (that allowed a mere 39 miles of rated range) cost about $16k, as batteries at that time cost about $1000/kWh. The line of battery pack costs has been damn near linear.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/


That's average prices. GM's buy for the Bolts was the largest buy of EV battery packs at that point so their cost would have been a bit lower than average at about $120/kWh.

thanks, and interesting, but I was mostly focused on this


Quote from: ChrisV on September 19, 2021, 09:41:59 AM
they had to sell them at $35-40k to turn a profit.

How much was the profit per car?
2003 Mazda Miata 5MT; 2005 Subaru Impreza Outback Sport 4AT

GoCougs

Quote from: Rich on September 19, 2021, 09:53:24 AM
Source?

Battery costs have come down, sure, but it takes more than drawing parallels to the cost of an ICE replacement.

GM has admitted in near-countless press releases that the Bolt has never been profitable (Google "Chevy Bolt profitability"). In recent times GM "declines" to comment on the topic; could be for competitive reasons but I wouldn't be surprised that it's not changed, or gotten worse.

Maybe EVs do get profitable without government intervention, but then again, even if so, an EV with a legit equivalent range of an ICE (~350 miles) is $currently $50k+, and there is only one (Tesla Model 3 LR), which is out of legit reach of 85+% of buyers; and that took 10 years and many billions $$ to get that far.

So, an EV that is equivalent to a Civic or Camry ($25k, 350 mile range), which is also profitable to the automaker w/out government intervention or some other goofy financial shell game (such as 10 year loans or some other funny business), IMO is not on the horizon - another 10+ years. Or, barring using a Civic or Camry as a target, a titanic shift in how WtP use cars (less driving, both in volume and distance).

Soup DeVille

Shockingly (no pun intended), Bolt prices have not completely tanked. I was kinda hoping to pick one up for pocket change.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

MrH

Quote from: Soup DeVille on September 19, 2021, 11:59:40 AM
Shockingly (no pun intended), Bolt prices have not completely tanked. I was kinda hoping to pick one up for pocket change.

Same
2023 Ford Lightning Lariat ER
2019 Acura RDX SH-AWD
2023 BRZ Limited

Previous: '02 Mazda Protege5, '08 Mazda Miata, '05 Toyota Tacoma, '09 Honda Element, '13 Subaru BRZ, '14 Hyundai Genesis R-Spec 5.0, '15 Toyota 4Runner SR5, '18 Honda Accord EX-L 2.0t, '01 Honda S2000, '20 Subaru Outback XT, '23 Chevy Bolt EUV

afty

Quote from: GoCougs on September 19, 2021, 11:58:39 AM
Maybe EVs do get profitable without government intervention, but then again, even if so, an EV with a legit equivalent range of an ICE (~350 miles) is $currently $50k+, and there is only one (Tesla Model 3 LR), which is out of legit reach of 85+% of buyers; and that took 10 years and many billions $$ to get that far.

So, an EV that is equivalent to a Civic or Camry ($25k, 350 mile range), which is also profitable to the automaker w/out government intervention or some other goofy financial shell game (such as 10 year loans or some other funny business), IMO is not on the horizon - another 10+ years. Or, barring using a Civic or Camry as a target, a titanic shift in how WtP use cars (less driving, both in volume and distance).
The average new car costs $42k (https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2021-07-19-Average-New-Vehicle-Prices-Hit-All-Time-High,-According-to-Kelley-Blue-Book). A Model 3 LR isn't much more than that.

GoCougs

Quote from: afty on September 19, 2021, 03:41:14 PM
The average new car costs $42k (https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2021-07-19-Average-New-Vehicle-Prices-Hit-All-Time-High,-According-to-Kelley-Blue-Book). A Model 3 LR isn't much more than that.

True, but then again the average individual income is ~$36k, the average auto loan term is ~72 months, the average age of a car on the road is ~12 years, average credit card debt is ~$6k, average student loan debt is ~$38k, etc., etc. (Median may tell a different story.)

The US is broke and making cars that much more expensive and harder to use is only going to make it much worse.

veeman

Quote from: ChrisV on September 19, 2021, 09:37:12 AM
Well, my wife is on her way home from her road trip up to visit the grandkids and she's adamant we don't give the Bolt back. The risk of fire is still less than a hundredth of a percent, so she says we'll serve out the lease term and by then the other cars she wants will be on the market. She says she loves the little car and that we don't do what's causing the fires mostly, which is charging to 100% and dropping down to under 20%. She set the target charge to 90% and never lets it get under 25% anyhow, even on the road trips.

I was interested in what your take on it was since I know you love the Bolt. 

I don't know how GM is reimbursing Bolt owners.  When I turned in my TDI Beetle because of dieselgate, VW gave me what my car was worth based on age and mileage plus additional significant money so it wouldn't have made much sense for me to keep it because it wasn't going to be worth much down the road. 

mzziaz

My wife absolutely loves the Bolt (or rather the Ampera-E). It will be way past 150k km's before the battery replacement, lol :-D.
Cuore Sportivo

CaminoRacer

Quote from: mzziaz on September 20, 2021, 02:01:35 AM
My wife absolutely loves the Bolt (or rather the Ampera-E). It will be way past 150k km's before the battery replacement, lol :-D.

Nice! That's what mine is at right now. Still feels like a pretty new car
2020 BMW 330i, 1969 El Camino, 2017 Bolt EV

Laconian

Quote from: mzziaz on September 20, 2021, 02:01:35 AM
My wife absolutely loves the Bolt (or rather the Ampera-E). It will be way past 150k km's before the battery replacement, lol :-D.

The best solution for overheating batteries: drive in Norwegian weather.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

AutobahnSHO

I want one... Just seems a great combination of practical and sensible. For a 3rd car anyway...
Will

r0tor

2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

SJ_GTI

Quote from: r0tor on September 21, 2021, 05:55:20 PM
Decent price... Hopefully it's fully baked unlike the VW ID variants

https://electrek.co/2021/09/21/audi-q4-e-tron-electric-suv-price-range-incentives/

I mean, its the ID.4 in different skin. So it will be just as baked (whether half or full) as the ID.4.

I haven't seen a full list of options but on another forum the assumption is that it will be a couple grand more than the ID.4 when optioned similarly.

r0tor

Well, it has the benefit of all the bugs of the ID4 being exposed before being on sale
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

AutobahnSHO

#1345
I saw some trash post saying electric cars will never work being shared on Facebook. Says no way can every house handle a Tesla super charger (duh) then compares the efficiency of a Volt driving on battery and gas- stating electricity costs $1.48/KwH.

The average is more like $.105/KwH, with Hawaii being $.35

I get really tired of the misinformation.
Will

ChrisV

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on September 26, 2021, 11:02:35 PM
I saw some trash post saying electric cars will never work being shared on Facebook. Says no way can every house handle a Tesla super charger (duh) then compares the efficiency of a Volt driving on battery and gas- stating electricity costs $1.48/KwH.

The average is more like $.105/KwH, with Hawaii being $.35

I get really tired of the misinformation.

Yeah my BIL posted that, too. It was just too long a post to get into refuting it line by line.
Like a fine Detroit wine, this vehicle has aged to budgetary perfection...

GoCougs

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on September 26, 2021, 11:02:35 PM
I saw some trash post saying electric cars will never work being shared on Facebook. Says no way can every house handle a Tesla super charger (duh) then compares the efficiency of a Volt driving on battery and gas- stating electricity costs $1.48/KwH.

The average is more like $.105/KwH, with Hawaii being $.35

I get really tired of the misinformation.

It's a simple calc in converting oil use to kWhr; as such the US electrical grid capacity will have to double to accommodate a majority (2/3rds) switch over to EVs by 2050. How much will electricity cost then? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-grids-autos-insight/ev-rollout-will-require-huge-investments-in-strained-u-s-power-grids-idUSKBN2AX18Y

"Never" is a big word, but widespread EV adoption on a national level just isn't viable with current technology and energy and raw material costs.

OR, maybe just buy that used Civic *r0tor shrug*

r0tor

#1348
Quote from: GoCougs on September 27, 2021, 04:15:22 PM
It's a simple calc in converting oil use to kWhr; as such the US electrical grid capacity will have to double to accommodate a majority (2/3rds) switch over to EVs by 2050. How much will electricity cost then? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-grids-autos-insight/ev-rollout-will-require-huge-investments-in-strained-u-s-power-grids-idUSKBN2AX18Y

"Never" is a big word, but widespread EV adoption on a national level just isn't viable with current technology and energy and raw material costs.

OR, maybe just buy that used Civic *r0tor shrug*

By 2050 the grid will be completely transformed by residential solar generation.... Also Texas's complete failure at trying to run their own electric grid is there own stubborn and incompetent issue.


Also since you love that money determines everything... The cost of green energy continues to drop by something akin to Moore's law (called Swanson's law).  The price of fossil fuel energy has never done such a thing - which means by 2050 we would be wasting trillions of $ still trying to burn dinosaurs.
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

MrH

By 2050, we can all be as advanced as the state of Kalifornia.
2023 Ford Lightning Lariat ER
2019 Acura RDX SH-AWD
2023 BRZ Limited

Previous: '02 Mazda Protege5, '08 Mazda Miata, '05 Toyota Tacoma, '09 Honda Element, '13 Subaru BRZ, '14 Hyundai Genesis R-Spec 5.0, '15 Toyota 4Runner SR5, '18 Honda Accord EX-L 2.0t, '01 Honda S2000, '20 Subaru Outback XT, '23 Chevy Bolt EUV