EVs

[ChrisV]

I don't think so (not referring to you living to age 80 and beyond ).  I just don't think EVs will be ubiquitous in the next 15 years. I don't see them being practical for people who live in apartments or for long distance vacation driving.   

In many areas, new apartments and condos are required to have an outlet per parking spot, and older apartments are being upgraded as they are seen to be easier to get renters/buyers if they are set up to accept EV chargers now.

Why does every one drive 14 hours a day on their vacation instead of stopping to see the sights which is why you decided to drive in the first place rather than take a flight? lol. Still, with DC fast charging becoming very common thanks to rollouts from EVGo, Electrify America, and others, road trips are definitely possible now, as is crossing the country from coast to coast.

[Laconian]

In the past decade, I think I've done three road trips which would've necessitated a recharge in the middle.

[shp4man]

General Atomics, a San Diego company, is seriously close to a viable  nuclear fusion reactor.
That will spell the end for most internal combustion power systems. Our current power grid can't handle EVs for all.

[Laconian]

General Atomics, a San Diego company, is seriously close to a viable  nuclear fusion reactor.
That will spell the end for most internal combustion power systems. Our current power grid can't handle EVs for all.

The power grid is in desperate need of modernization. Maybe EVs will be the kick in the ass we need to make things better, we've been coasting on infrastructure inertia for too long..

[ChrisV]

Acshually... EVs don't charge during the day while they are driving, they charge at night when the power plants are usually ramped down. The slight extra demand at night actually makes the power plants MORE efficient, not less, and we have the capacity to accommodate them even now in 99% of the country.

[Morris Minor]

I don't think so (not referring to you living to age 80 and beyond ).  I just don't think EVs will be ubiquitous in the next 15 years. I don't see them being practical for people who live in apartments or for long distance vacation driving.   There are also 100 times as many gas stations as there are public EV super chargers.  It'll happen but I think more by the time you are 100 years old. 

If people filled up their cars with gasoline piped into their homes, 85% of our gas stations would not exist. I don't believe range is as big an issue as we think it is.
I spoke to my pal on Saturday & asked him about his Tesla experience. He's owned a Model 3 for 2 1/2 years and has only twice taken it on a long trip necessitating Supercharger planning. All their other usage is in & around Metro Atlanta & is covered by home charging.

The wind in the sails for EVs is provided by regulators. Whatever the relative merits in terms of practicality, having governments effectively outlaw the ICE competition is what is steamrollering EVs into ubiquity.

[Laconian]

Huge government investment birthed the semiconductor industry in the US. We wouldn't have had our initial incredible multi-decade lead in computers if it weren't for that.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK100307/

This chapter explores the major policy issues in four of these industries—semiconductors, photovoltaic products, advanced batteries, and pharmaceuticals. Each of these industries can be regarded as strategic to the United States. Integrated circuits are the building blocks of all electronics products and have enabled the breathtaking advances in information technology that drive productivity gains across all industries. American leadership in semiconductors also is vital to the technological superiority of the U.S. military. Photovoltaic cells are the enabling technology of solar power, a key source of renewable energy that can serve America's national interests in reducing dependence on petroleum and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced batteries and their electrical management systems are the core components of hybrid and electric vehicles, much as internal combustion engines have been to conventional gasoline-powered cars and trucks. A strong domestic battery industry, therefore, is regarded as crucial to the future competitiveness of the U.S. auto industry. Lightweight, long-lasting, rechargeable energy-storage systems also are required for advanced weapons systems being developed by the U.S. military and for storing renewable energy for utility power grids. The pharmaceuticals industry is likewise strategic, producing medicines and vaccines that are essential to the well-being of Americans and indeed the world's people. U.S. leadership in this sector has been secured through enormous federal investments, though the industry faces numerous challenges in terms of litigation, regulatory pressure, and counterfeit drugs.

Each of these three industries shares another characteristic. The core technologies are the fruits of decades of research at U.S. universities and national laboratories at considerable American taxpayer expense. Many of the early U.S. companies that pioneered these industries, moreover, were supported over the years through federal research grants, small-business loans, and government and military procurement.

[AutobahnSHO]

In the past decade, I think I've done three road trips which would've necessitated a recharge in the middle.

We did 3 just in July..... And a couple of summers we've driven 2k miles to go home (3 days drive). Way cheaper than plane tickets plus rental van for 4 people for a week.

[CaminoRacer]

I decided to follow the law and replaced the outlet with another GFCI. We'll see how it goes.

First time I've done house electrical stuff. Didn't shock myself yay

[AutobahnSHO]

I decided to follow the law and replaced the outlet with another GFCI. We'll see how it goes.

First time I've done house electrical stuff. Didn't shock myself yay

[Morris Minor]

Huge government investment birthed the semiconductor industry in the US. We wouldn't have had our initial incredible multi-decade lead in computers if it weren't for that.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK100307/

Huge amounts of cash and an intellectually liberated culture that encourages off-the-wall thinking. Coupled with the freedom to personally profit (or lose your shirt) from ideas.

The change in government in the US will be a boost to the EV industry. Justified or not, range anxiety is a big headwind in the public mind, so I can see charge stations being moved from rapist-friendly dark corners of mall & hotel parking lots & into something that looks like Euro style service stations, where you can plug in & take 20 min for a pee & a snack.

[Laconian]

Huge amounts of cash and an intellectually liberated culture that encourages off-the-wall thinking.

Not sure you could make the latter claim about Texas, which was an electronics juggernaut until the mid 90's. NASA gifted Texas with a nucleus of nerds, allowing it to hit critical mass for a thriving high tech industry.

[veeman]

EV proponents to me are a lot like full autodrive proponents. Not surprising as Tesla leads the way in terms of mass market innovation on both fronts.  I think they are wildly optimistic about the timelines they believe mass market transition will take place.  It'll happen but not in 15 or 20 years.  There are so many obstacles for mass market transition to EVs in the U.S. that it'll require more than one or two decades of time. 

Regardless of when during a 24 hr cycle the EVs are mostly charged, can the electric grid support full transition?  How many years and how much money is going to be necessary to develop public superchargers to charge the majority of passenger vehicles in the entire U.S.  How are they going to manage 20 minute charge times for the majority of cars in the U.S.?  Managing EVs when they make up a few percentage points of total passenger vehicles in the U.S. is one thing.  Managing them when they make up more than half of all U.S. passenger vehicles is quite another. 

Busy Thanksgiving travel season, interstate  gas stations have long lines.  You might have to wait 15 minutes to fuel given each fill up takes a few minutes.  Now picture that with a long line of EVs, each one requiring 20 minutes to charge. 

I'm not saying the transition won't happen.  I just think the timelines given are wildly optimistic. 

[MrH]

Tesla leads in neither in terms of innovation at this point.  Their competitive advantage is risk tolerance and a cult following.

[AutobahnSHO]

Long distance travelling needs to go even wilder than Musk is planning- stick cars on old-fashioned trains.

There is an Amtrak rail service from Lorton VA (just 10miles south of DC) down to Florida (and back), lines were all kinds of backed up onto the street the first time I realized what it was.

It's about $90-300 for the train tickets and $466 for a standard car ($536 for bigger) and $120 for "priority off-loading", meaning your car is one of the first 30 off the train.

[mzziaz]

Tesla leads in neither in terms of innovation at this point.  Their competitive advantage is risk tolerance and a cult following.

Bullshit.

Tesla is 5-10 years ahead of the competition. The botched I.D.3 launch proves it.

On top of that they have the supercharger network, which is a massive advantage in itself.

[Morris Minor]

Bullshit.

Tesla is 5-10 years ahead of the competition. The botched I.D.3 launch proves it.

On top of that they have the supercharger network, which is a massive advantage in itself.

Biden's election means America's regulatory friendliness to EVs will soon catch up to that of Europe. Tesla is already positioned to ride on that wave.

As an aside: I decided not to make the same mistake that I made with the CR-V: buying a new model SUV that's only just been rolled out. So a Model Y is off the radar until its model refresh - hopefully with the 4680 battery pack.

[SJ_GTI]

Bullshit.

Tesla is 5-10 years ahead of the competition. The botched I.D.3 launch proves it.

On top of that they have the supercharger network, which is a massive advantage in itself.

What was botched on the ID3 launch? It wasn't sold here so I honestly hadn't followed it at all.

[cawimmer430]

What was botched on the ID3 launch? It wasn't sold here so I honestly hadn't followed it at all.

It had a bunch of software issues and glitches in the infotainment system IIRC.

[mzziaz]

Yeah. Massive software issues. Also 12V battery related issues. VW has said they will remedy most of the complains with an OTA update, but uknown when.
It has sold very well in Norway, but lots of frustrated owners are starting to surface.

Tesla has a good lead on the tech:

https://www.wheelsjoint.com/vw-starts-the-electric-car-era-with-id-3-but-tesla-is-years-ahead-according-to-the-expert/

[ChrisV]

Regardless of when during a 24 hr cycle the EVs are mostly charged, can the electric grid support full transition?

Yes, because that charging time matters.

But here's the deal, and I've said this repeatedly: there are 200 MILLION cars in the US. even if ALL manufacturers switched over to ONLY EV production overnight tonight, it would take 30 years of sales to replace even HALF the cars in the US fleet. You don't think that that's enough time to upgrade the grid to handle it? Think of what the grid was like 30 years ago and how it's changed since then. Wondering or concerning yourself with what the grid is like NOW is utterly pointless and silly, as that has no bearing on what it'll be like in 30 years, especially as more adoption drives change.

[MrH]

Bullshit.

Tesla is 5-10 years ahead of the competition. The botched I.D.3 launch proves it.

On top of that they have the supercharger network, which is a massive advantage in itself.

Ahead in what exactly?  20,000 charging stations, is that it?  Certainly not autonomous driving, manufacturing, quality, profitability, etc.

[Morris Minor]

Yeah. Massive software issues. Also 12V battery related issues. VW has said they will remedy most of the complains with an OTA update, but uknown when.
It has sold very well in Norway, but lots of frustrated owners are starting to surface.

Tesla has a good lead on the tech:

https://www.wheelsjoint.com/vw-starts-the-electric-car-era-with-id-3-but-tesla-is-years-ahead-according-to-the-expert/

Tesla building that huge plant in Brandenburg sharpened the focus of the big German players - they'll catch up for sure. It's all about hiring the right software engineers. haha.

[SJ_GTI]

Yeah. Massive software issues. Also 12V battery related issues. VW has said they will remedy most of the complains with an OTA update, but uknown when.
It has sold very well in Norway, but lots of frustrated owners are starting to surface.

Tesla has a good lead on the tech:

https://www.wheelsjoint.com/vw-starts-the-electric-car-era-with-id-3-but-tesla-is-years-ahead-according-to-the-expert/

That's a shame, I loved the design and almost certainly would have bought one if it was available here. Guess I should be glad they didn't sell it here after all. 

[Raza]

Hilarious.

The irony is that there are retards in this country that literally want us all to die so that the planet can survive.

To be fair, if the planet dies, we all die.

[veeman]

Yes, because that charging time matters.

But here's the deal, and I've said this repeatedly: there are 200 MILLION cars in the US. even if ALL manufacturers switched over to ONLY EV production overnight tonight, it would take 30 years of sales to replace even HALF the cars in the US fleet. You don't think that that's enough time to upgrade the grid to handle it? Think of what the grid was like 30 years ago and how it's changed since then. Wondering or concerning yourself with what the grid is like NOW is utterly pointless and silly, as that has no bearing on what it'll be like in 30 years, especially as more adoption drives change.

You're agreeing with what I'm saying then.  I said I agree the transition to EV will take place but the timelines given by many people are wildly optimistic.  It'll take many decades; not just one or two.

[ChrisV]

Ahead in what exactly?  20,000 charging stations, is that it?  Certainly not autonomous driving, manufacturing, quality, profitability, etc.

The charging station thing is huge, though, as it means that Tesla owners don't have range anxiety, and people know they can drive across the country if they want to. As for profitability, Tesla is one of the few that actually make decent money off of every EV sold. They'd be turning a real profit if they didn't spend so much on the Supercharger network that makes them no money, or on expanding the gigafactories.

[MrH]

The charging station thing is huge, though, as it means that Tesla owners don't have range anxiety, and people know they can drive across the country if they want to. As for profitability, Tesla is one of the few that actually make decent money off of every EV sold. They'd be turning a real profit if they didn't spend so much on the Supercharger network that makes them no money, or on expanding the gigafactories.

This is all verifiably false.  It's the exact opposite of what the SEC filings say.  Where are you getting this information?

[Morris Minor]

Tesla's worth and value is not in the profits, or lack thereof, it has made to date. In its early days Amazon made fuck all, and that was in a good year.

[MrH]

Tesla's worth and value is not in the profits, or lack thereof, it has made to date. In its early days Amazon made fuck all, and that was in a good year.

Amazon made fuck all, which is infinitely better than what Tesla is doing, which is burn all.  They are not remotely the same situation.  Tesla incinerates cash at a level Amazon could never imagine.  All while taking massive, massive government subsidies.