Have we reached the SUV tipping point?

Started by 12,000 RPM, March 28, 2018, 01:49:46 PM

12,000 RPM

Quote from: MX793 on April 03, 2018, 06:38:36 AM
Insurance rates anywhere in NYS are much higher than North Carolina (and most other states).  That's driven by state-specific insurance regulation, not risk pool.

For coverage other than liability (collision and comp), location makes a difference.  Living in a high crime area can drive up comprehensive premiums, for example.  Collision covers damage to your vehicle when you are at fault, so that should be unaffected by what everyone else around you drives.  If anything, it may go up for non-autonomous vehicles when autonomous vehicles become the majority.
Again, even accidents you are at fault for should go down with autonomous cars if they work as intended. It's usually never 100% one way or another. At least now we have moved from rates going up being a certainty to a possibility. The notion that less claims = higher premiums remains ridiculous and unproven.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

MX793

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 03, 2018, 06:43:10 AM
Again, even accidents you are at fault for should go down with autonomous cars if they work as intended. It's usually never 100% one way or another. At least now we have moved from rates going up being a certainty to a possibility. The notion that less claims = higher premiums remains ridiculous and unproven.

The only way accident rates for non-autonomous vehicles go down is if only the best drivers continue to drive manually.  And while good drivers who actually enjoy driving will certainly be part of the non-autonomous demographic, so will the squids and hoonigans that drive up insurance premiums for performance cars today.  Any affordable, non-autonomous car in the hypothetical future will, to insurance companies, be as tainted as cheap performance cars  (WRXes, Mustang's, Camaros, etc) or sport bikes today.
Needs more Jiggawatts

2016 Ford Mustang GTPP / 2011 Toyota Rav4 Base AWD / 2014 Kawasaki Ninja 1000 ABS
1992 Nissan 240SX Fastback / 2004 Mazda Mazda3s / 2011 Ford Mustang V6 Premium / 2007 Suzuki GSF1250SA Bandit / 2006 VW Jetta 2.5

Soup DeVille

#62
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 02, 2018, 07:45:22 PM
So run me through the evidence/logic that autonomous cars would make for a macro increase for manual driver's insurance premiums. How does less risk = higher premiums?

Manual driven cars would begin to represent a higher and higher percentage of total risk. Its not about paying more in absolute terms, but in relative terms; putting a cost pressure on manually driven cars.

In an accident between a manual and an autonomous car, which party will most likely be found at fault?
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

12,000 RPM

Quote from: MX793 on April 03, 2018, 06:57:43 AM
The only way accident rates for non-autonomous vehicles go down is if only the best drivers continue to drive manually.
Not true, again people get into accidents with other cars they don't cause all the time. Autonomous cars would reduce that significantly if they live up to their promise (which they will have to if they become reality). Plus the lower overall accident rate would reduce administrative costs, which would reduce premiums even if human driving risk were priced the same.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

MX793

#64
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 03, 2018, 10:33:42 AM
Not true, again people get into accidents with other cars they don't cause all the time. Autonomous cars would reduce that significantly if they live up to their promise (which they will have to if they become reality). Plus the lower overall accident rate would reduce administrative costs, which would reduce premiums even if human driving risk were priced the same.

Do you understand how insurance works?  Liability insurance covers damage you cause to others.  The rate is based entirely on your risk of being at fault in an accident.  Collision insurance primarily covers damages to your property in accidents for which you are at fault (if you are not at fault, other party's liability insurance covers this).  Comprehensive is the only coverage type not based on the policy holder being at fault (and covers theft, vandalism, and acts of nature).  Barring a malfunction, it's unlikely an automnomous vehicle will be found at fault in a collision with a non-autonomous one.  The driver of a non-autonomous car in the future is just as much an insurance risk in the future as today.  And relatively speaking, a much higher risk in a future where most cars are autonomous.
Needs more Jiggawatts

2016 Ford Mustang GTPP / 2011 Toyota Rav4 Base AWD / 2014 Kawasaki Ninja 1000 ABS
1992 Nissan 240SX Fastback / 2004 Mazda Mazda3s / 2011 Ford Mustang V6 Premium / 2007 Suzuki GSF1250SA Bandit / 2006 VW Jetta 2.5

Soup DeVille

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 03, 2018, 10:33:42 AM
Not true, again people get into accidents with other cars they don't cause all the time. Autonomous cars would reduce that significantly if they live up to their promise (which they will have to if they become reality). Plus the lower overall accident rate would reduce administrative costs, which would reduce premiums even if human driving risk were priced the same.

The cost between insuring a normal car and an autonomous car will diverge; can we agree on that? Can we also agree that a manual car would be considered a higher risk and would cost more to insure than a comparable autonomous car? Are we on solid assumptive ground here so far?

Can we also make the assumption that autonomy will steadily become more affordable the way all other electronic advancements have?

Okay, now if we go forward with these assumptions, is it likely that eventually the cost savings of insuring an autonomous car will eclipse the initial cost of buying an autonomous car?

Once it becomes a better financial decision to go autonomous; how long will it take for autonomous cars to become the majority of vehicles? Once they are the majority, how many owners will tolerate having dangerous, out dated manual cars sharing the roads with them?

Manual cars will be responsible for the majority of accidents, traffic interruptions, and of course- traffic tickets at this point. Can increased licensing and registration costs be far behind that? Not to mention that manual cars will stick out like a sore thumb to the remaining traffic police who are Totally Not Dependant on Fines.

It's eventually gonna look like a losing battle.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

12,000 RPM

#66
Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 03, 2018, 11:39:47 AM
The cost between insuring a normal car and an autonomous car will diverge; can we agree on that? Can we also agree that a manual car would be considered a higher risk and would cost more to insure than a comparable autonomous car? Are we on solid assumptive ground here so far?

Can we also make the assumption that autonomy will steadily become more affordable the way all other electronic advancements have?

Okay, now if we go forward with these assumptions, is it likely that eventually the cost savings of insuring an autonomous car will eclipse the initial cost of buying an autonomous car?

Once it becomes a better financial decision to go autonomous; how long will it take for autonomous cars to become the majority of vehicles? Once they are the majority, how many owners will tolerate having dangerous, out dated manual cars sharing the roads with them?

Manual cars will be responsible for the majority of accidents, traffic interruptions, and of course- traffic tickets at this point. Can increased licensing and registration costs be far behind that? Not to mention that manual cars will stick out like a sore thumb to the remaining traffic police who are Totally Not Dependant on Fines.

It's eventually gonna look like a losing battle.
OK, now we are getting somewhere. This mostly makes sense, but you have moved the goalposts from insurance to TCO. I have always said autonomous cars will wind up being cheaper in the long run, most likely changing or even eliminating the concept of car ownership for many altogether. But assuming ownership stays the same, I don't see why registration fees would change or be cheaper for autonomous cars- a car is a car (and tax revenue is tax revenue). Licensing costs could enter a death spiral though as fewer folks would need it over time. Traffic wise I imagine traffic would be so severely reduced by autonomous cars that barring a full road blockage manual cars wouldn't be an issue. Remember, rubber necking is a 100% human driven phenomenon.

I still think the concept of ownership will diminish a good bit or at least change significantly in the context of autonomous cars. Car ownership is a huge waste of time, space and money for people who don't care about cars, and I imagine that is the majority of the driving public, including people in "nice" cars. If clean, private (or at least selectively car pooled) autonomous rides can be hailed quickly 24/7, why own a car? I don't think there is an answer to that question for a large chunk of the driving population. But that's another discussion.

Plus again there is so much interest, industry and profit derived from "car/truck guys". I just don't see car culture relinquishing driving in the face of autonomy. I'm more optimistic.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

12,000 RPM

Quote from: MX793 on April 03, 2018, 11:04:37 AM
Do you understand how insurance works?  Liability insurance covers damage you cause to others.  The rate is based entirely on your risk of being at fault in an accident.  Collision insurance primarily covers damages to your property in accidents for which you are at fault (if you are not at fault, other party's liability insurance covers this).  Comprehensive is the only coverage type not based on the policy holder being at fault (and covers theft, vandalism, and acts of nature).  Barring a malfunction, it's unlikely an automnomous vehicle will be found at fault in a collision with a non-autonomous one.  The driver of a non-autonomous car in the future is just as much an insurance risk in the future as today.  And relatively speaking, a much higher risk in a future where most cars are autonomous.
If risk remains the same, then premiums remain the same. And again, with less claims, there will be much less administrative overhead to support, which should drive premiums down, at least marginally. Even assuming human drivers continue to crash at fault at the same rate, less accidents in total will make insurance cheaper for everybody. Insurers will spread the savings out to everyone to offer competitive rates. I don't see why they would issue punitive premiums on the folks who will most likely be their most profitable customers.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Soup DeVille

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 03, 2018, 12:42:05 PM
OK, now we are getting somewhere. This mostly makes sense, but you have moved the goalposts from insurance to TCO. I have always said autonomous cars will wind up being cheaper in the long run, most likely changing or even eliminating the concept of car ownership for many altogether. But assuming ownership stays the same, I don't see why registration fees would change or be cheaper for autonomous cars- a car is a car (and tax revenue is tax revenue). Licensing costs could enter a death spiral though as fewer folks would need it over time. Traffic wise I imagine traffic would be so severely reduced by autonomous cars that barring a full road blockage manual cars wouldn't be an issue. Remember, rubber necking is a 100% human driven phenomenon.

I still think the concept of ownership will diminish a good bit or at least change significantly in the context of autonomous cars. Car ownership is a huge waste of time, space and money for people who don't care about cars, and I imagine that is the majority of the driving public, including people in "nice" cars. If clean, private (or at least selectively car pooled) autonomous rides can be hailed quickly 24/7, why own a car? I don't think there is an answer to that question for a large chunk of the driving population. But that's another discussion.

Plus again there is so much interest, industry and profit derived from "car/truck guys". I just don't see car culture relinquishing driving in the face of autonomy. I'm more optimistic.

No, I was always talking about cost of ownership, and insurance was just one example.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

Soup DeVille

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 03, 2018, 12:48:00 PM
If risk remains the same, then premiums remain the same. And again, with less claims, there will be much less administrative overhead to support, which should drive premiums down, at least marginally. Even assuming human drivers continue to crash at fault at the same rate, less accidents in total will make insurance cheaper for everybody. Insurers will spread the savings out to everyone to offer competitive rates. I don't see why they would issue punitive premiums on the folks who will most likely be their most profitable customers.

administrative overhead will not reduce itself quickly or without resistance
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

MX793

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 03, 2018, 12:48:00 PM
If risk remains the same, then premiums remain the same. And again, with less claims, there will be much less administrative overhead to support, which should drive premiums down, at least marginally. Even assuming human drivers continue to crash at fault at the same rate, less accidents in total will make insurance cheaper for everybody. Insurers will spread the savings out to everyone to offer competitive rates. I don't see why they would issue punitive premiums on the folks who will most likely be their most profitable customers.

Insurance is based on rates, not number of accidents.  I can guarantee there are more car accidents than sportbike accidents per year and sportbike cost less than most cars, but full coverage on a sport bike costs more than full coverage on a car, even a performance car like a Mustang or WRX.  And as I expect a good portion of those who stick to manual driving will be the hoonigans, Schumaker of the Street crowd, you may actually see an increase in accident rates for non-autonomous cars, just as there's a higher rate of accidents for sportbike vs cruisers.
Needs more Jiggawatts

2016 Ford Mustang GTPP / 2011 Toyota Rav4 Base AWD / 2014 Kawasaki Ninja 1000 ABS
1992 Nissan 240SX Fastback / 2004 Mazda Mazda3s / 2011 Ford Mustang V6 Premium / 2007 Suzuki GSF1250SA Bandit / 2006 VW Jetta 2.5

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 03, 2018, 01:10:12 PM
administrative overhead will not reduce itself quickly or without resistance
We are talking about publicly traded companies here, not the government. Shareholders rejoice when layoffs are announced; they will reduce headcount as quickly as possible.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Soup DeVille

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 03, 2018, 01:53:22 PM
We are talking about publicly traded companies here, not the government. Shareholders rejoice when layoffs are announced; they will reduce headcount as quickly as possible.

No, no no.

Shareholders like money. They don't rejoice when layoffs are due to a shrinking business.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Soup DeVille on April 03, 2018, 02:15:50 PM
No, no no.

Shareholders like money. They don't rejoice when layoffs are due to a shrinking business.
Autonomous cars will give them their dividends at a lower operating cost. Sounds like a win to me
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Soup DeVille

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on April 03, 2018, 03:10:39 PM
Autonomous cars will give them their dividends at a lower operating cost. Sounds like a win to me

Assuming a higher profit margin, which competition will soon eliminate.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator