Autonomous Cars

Started by AutobahnSHO, October 08, 2015, 08:53:13 AM

280Z Turbo

Pretty soon the argument will be that only speed demon hooligans want to drive cars. They'll run over your children. Their fossil fueled engines are crude and loud and kill polar bears.

Human operated cars should be illegal in our community...state...nation...etc.

It's inevitable.

GoCougs

Quote from: Laconian on November 08, 2015, 01:13:42 PM
Coexistence won't make sense once autonomous cars hit a certain tipping point. The advantages of networking a bunch of cars together are too major to be ignored. You could have cars traveling at higher densities, at higher rates of speed, than they could if they were assuming every other car is manned by a falliable human. You could probably do away with stoplights completely!

And what of the toll of having government in charge of when and how you "drive" your car? It's an Orwellian nightmare.

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Raza  on November 08, 2015, 09:53:06 PM
How can they be fallacies if there is no reality of widespread autonomous car market?
Lol, easy. How can you speak with such authority on a reality that doesn't exist? 

Quote from: Raza  on November 08, 2015, 09:53:06 PMAlso, do you really think there will be a "market" for cars like the Miata?  If human-driven cars aren't made illegal, they will become prohibitively expensive and likely track-use only.  If you look at how stickshift cars are basically nonexistent now, actual real cars will be even harder to find.
Again, what are you basing this on? Nothing but pure FUD- fear, uncertainty and doubt. You don't have anything empirical to draw on to validate your views, and what little real world evidence exists does not jive with what you claim incessantly. Not to play internet Dr Phil but your fear of autonomous cars comes down to your control issues, which have little to nothing to do with autonomous cars. The idea of not being in control of a car puts you in a panic and keeps you from being objective or rational about the subject.

Quote from: Raza  on November 08, 2015, 09:53:06 PMAnd if you don't want to see my posts on autonomous car threads, ignore me.  You post up, I'm going to reply, because self driving cars are the dumbest fucking idea ever.
No, I'm not going to do that. Just as you will reply, so will I. Your stance on autonomous cars is built on nothing but FUD and should be called out as such :huh:
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Laconian

#33
IMO, autonomous cars are to conventional cars what cars were to horses. People still ride horses, but typically just the dedicated moneyed few. I feel conflicted about it too - I feel like it will solve a lot of congestion and environmental problems esp. in developing countries, giving people the mobility they demand with less of a footprint. People are buying cars in China and India in droves and it is utterly ruining their large cities. But there's no going back now that the middle class has the dough and they've tasted car-assisted autonomy.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

12,000 RPM

I think it has potential to be a great thing personally. If it gets more people on the track, and thus makes track driving and road racing less fringe, it's a plus. Unless you are reckless (which I admit to being at times), generally speaking driving on the street sucks. I don't think it's right, but I think it's pretty obvious why people play on their phones and shit while driving on public roads. It's boring. And on top of that, a lot of people are just bad at  it, even without the distractions.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

AutobahnSHO

Nah, driving for pleasure will get stupid expensive , just like owning horses.
Will

GoCougs

It can't happen on any sort of scale save for ginormous increases in both infrastructure spending and government power.

The answer has been around for ~110 years: electric trolleys and buses. Ain't got enough cache for government cronyism or Silicon Valley fadism though. Once this tech bubble bursts (and it's gonna be brutal) most all these fads should disappear.


AutobahnSHO

Quote from: GoCougs on November 09, 2015, 12:33:21 PM
It can't happen on any sort of scale save for ginormous increases in both infrastructure spending and government power.

The answer has been around for ~110 years: electric trolleys and buses. Ain't got enough cache for government cronyism or Silicon Valley fadism though. Once this tech bubble bursts (and it's gonna be brutal) most all these fads should disappear.

says the "cars will never be as dependable as horses" guy
Will

Morris Minor

We would not need road signs, or traffic lights.
⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

AutobahnSHO

Or, if everyone just starts renting on per use basis , the car sale/rental market would disappear...
Will

giant_mtb

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on November 12, 2015, 10:49:13 AM
Or, if everyone just starts renting on per use basis , the car sale/rental market would disappear...

If everyone starts renting cars, the rental market disappears? 

Cookie Monster

Quote from: giant_mtb on November 12, 2015, 11:03:16 AM
If everyone starts renting cars, the rental market disappears? 

Dat's some inception level shit.  :rastaman:
RWD > FWD
President of the "I survived the Volvo S80 Thread" Club
2007 Mazda MX-5 | 1999 Honda Nighthawk 750 | 1989 Volvo 240 | 1991 Toyota 4Runner | 2006 Honda CBR600F4i | 2015 Yamaha FJ-09 | 1999 Honda CBR600F4 | 2009 Yamaha WR250X | 1985 Mazda RX-7 | 2000 Yamaha YZ426F | 2006 Yamaha FZ1 | 2002 Honda CBR954RR | 1996 Subaru Outback | 2018 Subaru Crosstrek | 1986 Toyota MR2
Quote from: 68_427 on November 27, 2016, 07:43:14 AM
Or order from fortune auto and when lyft rider asks why your car feels bumpy you can show them the dyno curve
1 3 5
├┼┤
2 4 R

Laconian

Quote from: GoCougs on November 09, 2015, 12:33:21 PM
It can't happen on any sort of scale save for ginormous increases in both infrastructure spending and government power.

The answer has been around for ~110 years: electric trolleys and buses. Ain't got enough cache for government cronyism or Silicon Valley fadism though. Once this tech bubble bursts (and it's gonna be brutal) most all these fads should disappear.



Nope. It'll happen incrementally, with autonomous cars coexisting with manually-driven cars, until critical mass is reached. Then Big Gubment throws the big switch for full auto mode and then our freedoms evaporate.

Teslas are already driving themselves.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: giant_mtb on November 12, 2015, 11:03:16 AM
If everyone starts renting cars, the rental market disappears? 

sigh meant sales/ used sales

So much for hurrying during lunch.
Will

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: Laconian on November 12, 2015, 11:24:49 AM
Nope. It'll happen incrementally, with autonomous cars coexisting with manually-driven cars, until critical mass is reached. Then Big Gubment throws the big switch for full auto mode and then our freedoms evaporate.

+1

Just like horse-drawn carriages....
Will

BimmerM3

Quote from: Laconian on November 12, 2015, 11:24:49 AM
Nope. It'll happen incrementally, with autonomous cars coexisting with manually-driven cars, until critical mass is reached. Then Big Gubment throws the big switch for full auto mode and then our freedoms evaporate.

Teslas are already driving themselves.

Or it'll happen in specific areas first. I could totally see London going autonomous only.

Laconian

I could see HOV lanes being converted into autonomous-only lanes too.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

giant_mtb

I would never want to tow anything with an autonomous vehicle.

12,000 RPM

Its gonna take so long. At least 20-30 yrs at best. Me no worry :rastaman:
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

GoCougs

Quote from: Laconian on November 12, 2015, 11:24:49 AM
Nope. It'll happen incrementally, with autonomous cars coexisting with manually-driven cars, until critical mass is reached. Then Big Gubment throws the big switch for full auto mode and then our freedoms evaporate.

Teslas are already driving themselves.

I'm sure They said the same thing about flying cars ;).

Teslas' self-driving feature is basically an incremental step up from land departure warning and radar cruise control. Telling a car to drive you to the store across town is light years more difficult.

The infrastructure investment needed to be enable that cross town (self) drive is better spent on electric buses and trolleys.

The tech is getting irrational amounts of focus and attention because of social media fad and the tech bubble. I'll take the bet that it doesn't ever happen in any meaningful manner.

12,000 RPM

Electric autonomous buses are a good idea but I think autonomous cars will render trains irrelevant outside of the most crowded cities. Still need a car to get to and most likely from the train.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

BimmerM3

Quote from: GoCougs on November 12, 2015, 11:55:13 AM
The infrastructure investment needed to be enable that cross town (self) drive is better spent on electric buses and trolleys.

Sure, but that's not what people want. :huh:

GoCougs

Quote from: BimmerM3 on November 12, 2015, 12:12:53 PM
Sure, but that's not what people want. :huh:

Very true, but that doesn't validate the tech.

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: GoCougs on November 12, 2015, 12:47:44 PM
Very true, but that doesn't validate the tech.

Tech doesn't need to be validated in that regard. It will validate itself, then be adopted as people see the advantage.
Will

Rich

2003 Mazda Miata 5MT; 2005 Subaru Impreza Outback Sport 4AT

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: HotRodPilot on December 01, 2015, 02:23:33 AM
http://www.thedrive.com/article/999/how-nissans-using-anthropology-to-make-autonomous-cars-safe

Couple of my thoughts while reading that:
1- Hopefully bike riders will start to follow the law better. I expect bikes will be used more in smaller spaces as time goes on.
2- in all the "future" movies with autonomous cars, the people use the journey to call/videochat with people since they don't have to waste attention driving.
3- as the transition from self-driven to computer-driven cars goes on, it will start with the rich, so the self-driver will be at the disadvantage to the court/lawyer system. They will learn to be more cautious UNLESS the court favors them over the computer driven car. I think the money will prevail and the poorer people who can't afford the newest self-drive assists will eventually be forced off the road... 

Which is ok, if rentals are available at decent price.
(I heard on the radio this morning since Uber was introduced in Augusta, GA the 49 DUIs in March was down to 7 in August.
Will

12,000 RPM

Mandatory autonomous cars will not happen in our lifetime, so thinking about scenarios of people not being able to afford autonomous cars is not productive IMO.

I do think the net benefits will far overweigh the downsides. For example the whole DUI thing is a big part of why I don't like going out much. Plus again a lot of people really hate driving and would be better served by a computer.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on December 01, 2015, 08:51:31 AM
Mandatory autonomous cars will not happen in our lifetime,

And when my grandparents were born no human would ever walk on the moon, TV was a fantasy, not to mention quadcore "super computers" in peoples' pockets.

They might not be mandatory in 50yrs but they certainly will be close to that. As soon as the bugs are worked out and they go on the market, my guess is they will gain traction quickly.
Will

12,000 RPM

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 01, 2015, 09:32:46 AM
And when my grandparents were born no human would ever walk on the moon, TV was a fantasy, not to mention quadcore "super computers" in peoples' pockets.

They might not be mandatory in 50yrs but they certainly will be close to that. As soon as the bugs are worked out and they go on the market, my guess is they will gain traction quickly.
Just because we made big tech steps in the past doesn't guarantee anything. By that logic we should have had nuclear powered flying cars by now. And the big hurdles to autonomous cars aren't technological. The tech is easy and is pretty much here already. The challenge will be, among other things, destroying/retrofitting/replacing the 300+ million cars on the road, especially as folks keep cars for longer and longer. Even if you assume that all auto makers will come out with full lineups of automated cars next year, and that everyone who buys a new car next year gets an automated one, it would take at least 20 years to replace everything on the road. Similarly we don't spend money on infrastructure as is so anything that requires infrastructure reconfiguration is out. I think we will continue to see what we already have- increasingly sophisticated driver's aids at bite away at more and more of the requirement of actually driving without completely (and legally) replacing it. There is already cruise control, lane departure control, automatic braking and I think Volvo just came out with stop and go traffic cruise. There is parallel parking and stuff as well. But as this article shows even with how far tech has come there is still a long way to go with that, and that is on top of the huge logistical and legal issues I mentioned. The autonomous alarmism is not warranted.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

AutobahnSHO

Who said alarmism? I just think it will come sooner than you do.
Will