Author Topic: Model 3 still on track for 2017?  (Read 4511 times)

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Online Soup DeVille

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #690 on: October 08, 2017, 12:55:58 pm »
Sure can!

Devising a manual welding process to replace a welding robot would be very hard and time consuming, and be woefully lacking in quality and throughput.

They're not replacing a robot if one hasn't yet been put into service. And about that throughput number; you did see how low the throughput was so far, right? The quality is probably suffering as well.

But no, it's not hard. You get a decent welder to weld the pieces that have already been located, and that's all there is to it. It's slow, it's expensive, and it's been done for decades.
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Offline GoCougs

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #691 on: October 08, 2017, 01:15:48 pm »
Every automaker builds early prototypes in a form of hand assembly, no? It sounds like Tesla is handling lots of its "launch" like a normal automaker would handle prototypes, which has also been in evidence from other aspects of the process (like providing the first "production" cars almost exclusively to Tesla staff).

Depends on what is meant by "hand assembly." Paint, welding, dispensing, and other critical processes are most definitely not done by hand. As I had stated, if there is "hand assembly" going on it is menial, non-critical processes.

Offline MX793

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #692 on: October 08, 2017, 01:25:43 pm »
Depends on what is meant by "hand assembly." Paint, welding, dispensing, and other critical processes are most definitely not done by hand. As I had stated, if there is "hand assembly" going on it is menial, non-critical processes.

Oh?

Quote
According to workers interviewed by the Journal, one of the “bottlenecks” Tesla alluded to in that announcement was that body panels were being positioned and welded by hand, rather than by precision robots.

http://fortune.com/2017/10/07/tesla-model-3-bottlenecks-built-by-hand/

Perhaps not all of the welding is happening by hand, but at least some of it is.
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #693 on: October 08, 2017, 01:50:39 pm »
Depends on what is meant by "hand assembly." Paint, welding, dispensing, and other critical processes are most definitely not done by hand. As I had stated, if there is "hand assembly" going on it is menial, non-critical processes.

All that occasionally happens even in mainstream production vehicles. You think every time they scratch a panel, or even drop a bodyside during production that they just throw the vehicle out?
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #694 on: October 09, 2017, 10:21:26 am »
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Offline CaminoRacer

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #695 on: October 09, 2017, 10:21:56 am »
Of course he does. :huh:
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Offline GoCougs

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #696 on: October 09, 2017, 11:34:07 am »
Well, per SEC rules, which Musk knows, he can't lie about stuff like this (and it would be easy to discover, and the consequences severe).

Like any automaker they've had their production line and associated equipment in processes for quite some time. Sure there are bound to be problems but they're not dealing with those by making cars by hand. They'll deal with those by fixing the problems, like most any manufacturer.

I have zero doubt Tesla has severe manufacturing and supply chain issues, and just in general Tesla is a train wreck of an entity, but they're not building cars by hand in any appreciable manner.

Offline 12,000 RPM

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #697 on: October 09, 2017, 02:16:10 pm »
Well, per SEC rules, which Musk knows, he can't lie about stuff like this (and it would be easy to discover, and the consequences severe).

Like any automaker they've had their production line and associated equipment in processes for quite some time. Sure there are bound to be problems but they're not dealing with those by making cars by hand. They'll deal with those by fixing the problems, like most any manufacturer.

I have zero doubt Tesla has severe manufacturing and supply chain issues, and just in general Tesla is a train wreck of an entity, but they're not building cars by hand in any appreciable manner.
What are you basing this on? Have you been on site?
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #698 on: October 09, 2017, 02:26:11 pm »
Cougs is correct on his SEC comment.  Musk can not make blatant untrue or unfactual comments.  People shorting the stock however can make any accusation they want..
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Offline 2o6

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #699 on: October 09, 2017, 02:28:20 pm »
Aren't these technically "prototypes" tho? I assumed it's hand-built as much as chassis or powertrain mules are for any large automaker.

Offline Cookie Monster

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #700 on: October 09, 2017, 02:30:02 pm »
What are you basing this on? Have you been on site?

What are you basing the "handmade" comments on, other than some Jalopnik article that references some other WSJ article that doesn't even list its reference?
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Offline MX793

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #701 on: October 09, 2017, 04:34:20 pm »
Cougs is correct on his SEC comment.  Musk can not make blatant untrue or unfactual comments.  People shorting the stock however can make any accusation they want..

They cannot publish claims that are patently false.  That's libelous, and equally illegal.
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #702 on: October 09, 2017, 04:50:08 pm »
They cannot publish claims that are patently false.  That's libelous, and equally illegal.

You can find hundreds of attack pieces written daily all over the internet.  The SEC doesn't have the resources to care.  It's completely a one sided game currently.
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #703 on: October 09, 2017, 05:01:16 pm »
You can find hundreds of attack pieces written daily all over the internet.  The SEC doesn't have the resources to care.  It's completely a one sided game currently.

WSJ is big enough that if what they were saying was truly false and libelous, Musk would be suing.
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #704 on: October 09, 2017, 06:34:03 pm »
WSJ is big enough that if what they were saying was truly false and libelous, Musk would be suing.

Cramer has a professional tv career doing it on a major news Network and they don't care.  If a CEO makes a statement, lawyers crawl over themselves for a class action lawsuits.
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Offline 12,000 RPM

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #705 on: October 09, 2017, 08:20:33 pm »
Model 3 buyers already have a case with all these damn delays
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #706 on: October 10, 2017, 04:17:19 am »
Cramer has a professional tv career doing it on a major news Network and they don't care.  If a CEO makes a statement, lawyers crawl over themselves for a class action lawsuits.

Kramer provides opinions, and his statements are marketed as nothing more than opinion.  An opinion cannot be libel/slander.  Now, if Kramer made outright false statements about a company's situation, that would be different.  But simply stating "I don't like this company, you should sell" or "I really like this company and think everyone should buy" is not libel/slander.  Providing factual information while expressing an opinion is not libel/slander.  Knowingly presenting false information to support an opinion is libel/slander.

If WSJ's "hit piece" was truly factually bogus, Musk's legal team would be all over them for libel.  That they aren't says that their remarks about partial hand-assembly due to the assembly lines not being fully up and running is not false.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2017, 05:19:45 am by MX793 »
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Offline 12,000 RPM

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #707 on: October 10, 2017, 05:38:56 am »
I mean, if Tesla's shit were up and running, the Model 3 would have been delivered on time. So it's not unreasonable to think they are using unconventional methods to get back on track.
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Offline MrH

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #708 on: October 10, 2017, 07:10:30 am »
When I get a minute this afternoon, I'll write up how the whole launch process works.  Typically there are production trial runs, and different levels of it.  I almost guarantee they're not welding the whole body in white by hand.  That's crazy talk.  But they're totally passing off production trials as counting as "launched".  There's a lot of shady things there.
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #709 on: October 10, 2017, 08:57:10 am »
Kramer provides opinions, and his statements are marketed as nothing more than opinion.  An opinion cannot be libel/slander.  Now, if Kramer made outright false statements about a company's situation, that would be different.  But simply stating "I don't like this company, you should sell" or "I really like this company and think everyone should buy" is not libel/slander.  Providing factual information while expressing an opinion is not libel/slander.  Knowingly presenting false information to support an opinion is libel/slander.

If WSJ's "hit piece" was truly factually bogus, Musk's legal team would be all over them for libel.  That they aren't says that their remarks about partial hand-assembly due to the assembly lines not being fully up and running is not false.

Try to find examples of companies successfully defending themselves against Wall Street hit pieces

I owned a biotech stock.  Had wonderful results from a small drug trial.  One of Cramer's cronies writes an article stating the trial results were as effective as drinking coffee to cure a disease.  Stock price drops 80% in a coordinated attack.  Shareholders filed SEC complaints for false accusations and intentionally overlooking statistically significant findings... which were returned with the SEC stating that analysts are entitled to analyze data however they wish.  Worse yet, the company actually had to defend myself from class action lawsuits from people who tried to sue that the company made false accusations leading up to the trial results that inflated priced - which further worked to drop their share price.
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Offline CaminoRacer

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #710 on: October 10, 2017, 09:18:23 am »
So why didn't the company sue for libel instead of just complaining to the SEC?
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #711 on: October 10, 2017, 09:44:39 am »
So why didn't the company sue for libel instead of just complaining to the SEC?

It's a waste of money.

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Offline MX793

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #712 on: October 10, 2017, 03:12:09 pm »
Try to find examples of companies successfully defending themselves against Wall Street hit pieces

I owned a biotech stock.  Had wonderful results from a small drug trial.  One of Cramer's cronies writes an article stating the trial results were as effective as drinking coffee to cure a disease.  Stock price drops 80% in a coordinated attack.  Shareholders filed SEC complaints for false accusations and intentionally overlooking statistically significant findings... which were returned with the SEC stating that analysts are entitled to analyze data however they wish.  Worse yet, the company actually had to defend myself from class action lawsuits from people who tried to sue that the company made false accusations leading up to the trial results that inflated priced - which further worked to drop their share price.

Again, there is a big difference between playing with stats to paint a particular picture (disingenuous, but not libelous/slanderous) and an outright lie (libel/slander).  If you take factual data and analyze it in a manner that paints a particular picture, and you can trace the path to how you got there, it's not a lie.  A misleading representation of factual data?  Sure.  There's plenty of that on both sides of the coin (people painting a prettier picture than exists happens frequently as well).

A statement like "Tesla's assembly line is not fully operational and the company is partially assembling vehicles by hand" is either factual or it's not.  It's not up to interpretation or what algorithm you ran the numbers through.  If this statement was a lie, Tesla's legal team would have been all over it.  Also, nothing in Tesla's response outright counters that statement.

From Tesla's formal response:

Quote
We are still in the beginning of our production ramp, but every Model 3 is being built on the Model 3 production line, which is fully installed, powered on, producing vehicles, and increasing in automation every day.

That last, bolded, statement is just another way of saying that their automation is not fully online and they are doing things manually for the steps where automation is not fully operational.  They simply stated it in a more optimistic fashion.
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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #713 on: October 10, 2017, 05:13:58 pm »
All vehicles have parts of the process that are hand assembled.  It's a shit stock market hit piece posted not surprisingly in a stock market focused publication.  Not sure what your great argument is about.
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Offline GoCougs

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #714 on: October 10, 2017, 06:25:37 pm »
WSJ is big enough that if what they were saying was truly false and libelous, Musk would be suing.

Not at all - what is the principal determination for libel?

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #715 on: October 10, 2017, 06:54:48 pm »
Corporations may sue for libel or defamation when false statements are made about their business or reputation to a third party if said false statements cause harm/damage to the business (falling stock prices could be construed as damage).
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Offline GoCougs

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #716 on: October 10, 2017, 11:50:52 pm »
Corporations may sue for libel or defamation when false statements are made about their business or reputation to a third party if said false statements cause harm/damage to the business (falling stock prices could be construed as damage).

How would Tesla prove that the WSJ damaged them? Then of course public entities have a judicious amount of shielding.

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #718 on: October 12, 2017, 01:19:11 am »
Corporations may sue for libel or defamation when false statements are made about their business or reputation to a third party if said false statements cause harm/damage to the business (falling stock prices could be construed as damage).

Incorrect, there is an additional intent element in that the defamatory statement must be made with malice.

People still file libel/slander suits (usually as ancillary claims), and theoretically you can recover, but practically speaking, it’s been functionally dead since NYT v. Sullivan. Companies generally aren’t going to spend their resources chasing good money after bad.
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Offline Raza

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Re: Model 3 still on track for 2017?
« Reply #719 on: October 12, 2017, 06:47:30 am »
Incorrect, there is an additional intent element in that the defamatory statement must be made with malice.

People still file libel/slander suits (usually as ancillary claims), and theoretically you can recover, but practically speaking, it’s been functionally dead since NYT v. Sullivan. Companies generally aren’t going to spend their resources chasing good money after bad.

I believe it's "reckless disregard" for the possibility of falsity for public figures, which then creates the malice. It's a slightly different form of actual malice from what I think of in the criminal world. But you're right as to the effect. Libel is basically impossible to prove.
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