Guys, we have time.

[12,000 RPM]

http://jalopnik.com/automakers-admit-the-driverless-car-revolution-will-tak-1796103407

I've been saying this, but my opinions are not enough to keep the word "autonomous" from triggering some here into a full on panic... so it's nice to hear someone who actually knows what they're talking about say the same.

And "ubiquity" requires everyone to buy autonomous cars....... which judging by the 400-500K people still buying sports/sporty cars in the US will probably never happen. Given the choice someone who wants a 911 is not going to ride around in some autonopod, and given the profit from said choice we can safely assume that choice will always be available.

Back to your regular scheduled programming.

[AutobahnSHO]

Plus what about all the trucksters who "have to" pull a trailer once per year? or put a couple logs in the back?

What kills me is how soon that is, while some around here still think it will "never" happen. I would say definitely in 10-15yrs there will be completely autonomous cars on public streets.

[shp4man]

Over the road trucks are a likely first place they'll appear.

[12,000 RPM]

Plus what about all the trucksters who "have to" pull a trailer once per year? or put a couple logs in the back?

What kills me is how soon that is, while some around here still think it will "never" happen. I would say definitely in 10-15yrs there will be completely autonomous cars on public streets.

There will definitely be some autonomous cars on the road soon, but the complete takeover that keeps people like Raza up at night will never happen. Let's really break it down.... people who don't give a shit about cars won't buy one; they will just buy rides. People who like nicer cars might buy nicer rides, but car ownership is a waste of time for most people. The people for whom cars are an extension of their identity, be it sports car buffs, pickup truck drivers, British footballers in Panameras on 22s... they will still want cars, and car companies will continue to sell to them gladly for handsome profits. Where there is a profit there is a way.

[AutobahnSHO]

There will definitely be some autonomous cars on the road soon, but the complete takeover that keeps people like Raza up at night will never happen. Let's really break it down.... people who don't give a shit about cars won't buy one; they will just buy rides. People who like nicer cars might buy nicer rides, but car ownership is a waste of time for most people. The people for whom cars are an extension of their identity, be it sports car buffs, pickup truck drivers, British footballers in Panameras on 22s... they will still want cars, and car companies will continue to sell to them gladly for handsome profits. Where there is a profit there is a way.

I see autonomous cars (AC) going totally wired to the grid/each other/ traffic systems. Plus there will be cameras. Onboard cameras, lots of them.
Why?

Because tard drivers (TDs) will hit ACs. AC owners (either occupants or the rental meisters who uber them out) will want proof so they don't pay.

As it becomes more and more obvious that TDs are a risk, whereas ACs are not, the insurance rates for TDs will rise and rise and it will be only rich who can afford to drive a car manually anyway.

Chase the money, and the ACs will take over pretty quick at that point.

[shp4man]

I see autonomous cars (AC) going totally wired to the grid/each other/ traffic systems. Plus there will be cameras. Onboard cameras, lots of them.
Why?

Because tard drivers (TDs) will hit ACs. AC owners (either occupants or the rental meisters who uber them out) will want proof so they don't pay.

As it becomes more and more obvious that TDs are a risk, whereas ACs are not, the insurance rates for TDs will rise and rise and it will be only rich who can afford to drive a car manually anyway.

Chase the money, and the ACs will take over pretty quick at that point.

OS! (Oh Shit!) 

[12,000 RPM]

I see autonomous cars (AC) going totally wired to the grid/each other/ traffic systems. Plus there will be cameras. Onboard cameras, lots of them.
Why?

Because tard drivers (TDs) will hit ACs. AC owners (either occupants or the rental meisters who uber them out) will want proof so they don't pay.

As it becomes more and more obvious that TDs are a risk, whereas ACs are not, the insurance rates for TDs will rise and rise and it will be only rich who can afford to drive a car manually anyway.

Chase the money, and the ACs will take over pretty quick at that point.

Look at all the stuff required for ACs. Grids. Traffic lights. Cameras. Who's gonna pay for all this stuff? Tons of states are barely keeping the lights on as is. Feds damn sure won't do it. And again it's going to be a slow trickle. Look at the top 10 selling vehicles.... 1/3 of them are pickup trucks. What do any of those folks want with some anonymous autonopod? So only so many cars can be replaced over time, and of those, not all will be autonomous. So it's going to be a very slow grind just on the basis of a low replacement rate.

[AutobahnSHO]

Look at all the stuff required for ACs. Grids. Traffic lights. Cameras. Who's gonna pay for all this stuff? Tons of states are barely keeping the lights on as is. Feds damn sure won't do it. And again it's going to be a slow trickle. Look at the top 10 selling vehicles.... 1/3 of them are pickup trucks. What do any of those folks want with some anonymous autonopod? So only so many cars can be replaced over time, and of those, not all will be autonomous. So it's going to be a very slow grind just on the basis of a low replacement rate.

At first.    Manufacturers will pay for any extra stuff needed. They know the payoff is going to be ginormous. Otherwise they wouldn't be sinking bazillions into the research.

[r0tor]

Problem is development dollars will increasingly be spent on automated products... So you only have a few more years until there is no money to be spent on fun cars

[12,000 RPM]

Problem is development dollars will increasingly be spent on automated products... So you only have a few more years until there is no money to be spent on fun cars

Not if the shareholders and people buying them have any say

Again we are talking about 500K cars in the US alone. Not cheap shit either, avg price is prob $40K with a lot of profit baked in. You think manufacturers are going to give that up in the face of the race to the bottom that will be autonomous cars?

Keep in mind once autonomous cars really become a thing auto brands won't matter in that space. What's the diff between a Ford or Toyota if you're essentially hailing it like a cab? So if anything the enthusiast market will become more important. And that expands to "expressive" vehicles like pickups too. Dont discount the power of American individuality (as conformist and derivative as it may have become)

[giant_mtb]

I think a big part of it is the infrastructure. Currently, we drive on roads funded by registration, gad taxes, etc. built by government.  Meanwhile, cars are sold to us by private corporations.  It'll take a massive amount of teamwork between the two to make EVs and autonomous vehicles totally viable to (all of) the public.  Normal vehicles will be around for a long time, even as autonomous ones trickle in and the infrastructure morphs...if.

[AutobahnSHO]

Nah, autonomous cars are designed for what we have. Software is amazing, and we carry in our pockets what used to be supercomputers with ultra-super-high networks. Stuff keeps advancing.

[giant_mtb]

Nah, autonomous cars are designed for what we have. Software is amazing, and we carry in our pockets what used to be supercomputers with ultra-super-high networks. Stuff keeps advancing.

I guaran-fucking-tee an automated car would fail miserably here in the winter.  "Well, guess I'm not going to work today because my automated car is stuck in the driveway like an idiot."

[AutobahnSHO]

I guaran-fucking-tee an automated car would fail miserably here in the winter.  "Well, guess I'm not going to work today because my automated car is stuck in the driveway like an idiot."

give it time. A car will learn to drive better in the white than 90% of hoomans.

[12,000 RPM]

I guaran-fucking-tee an automated car would fail miserably here in the winter.  "Well, guess I'm not going to work today because my automated car is stuck in the driveway like an idiot."

Yea,  and it has to be all or none. Otherwise it's just an enhancement, like cruise control.

[giant_mtb]

give it time. A car will learn to drive better in the white than 90% of hoomans.

Maybe that's true for where you are (and other semi-snowy places), but I really doubt that around here.  Computers are good at seeing things and avoiding objects, but I've yet to see an automated car slide an icy corner and recover.

Not to mention, a lot of the roads aren't even visible during the winter. How will it know where the lines are, the turning lanes, etc?  It would take a Massive amount of resources to keep all roads cleared at all times to allow travel of automated vehicles...or, 100% of the vehicles would have to be automated. Which is not gonna happen any time soon. Just think of all the rural areas, poorer areas, etc...they'll be left in the dust.  Poor people can't afford that shit.  If someone has been buying 15 year old, $2k cars their whole life, how are they going to magically jump on the automated bandwagon?  It'll be at least a decade after their real release before they could even consider affording one.

[GoCougs]

I've been saying this since the beginning. It's buoyed by fad. It will never work en masse without catastrophic levels of infrastructure spending and government control, which at that point it's probably better to spend on country-wide mass transit (not that I'd condone that of course, I'm just sayin'). But the premise itself is broken. People truly that disinterested in driving have no business owning cars - why accommodate them?

[giant_mtb]

Also on that note, I think the general "the computers will do it better" mentality is kind of a shame.  Cars are the essence of independence in America.  Make them all automated and we're slaves to computers.

[12,000 RPM]

People truly that disinterested in driving have no business owning cars - why accommodate them?

Because the American economy functions on the premise of people getting around easily. I agree that people who don't give a shit about owning a car or driving shouldn't- with autonomous cars, they won't have to.

Maybe that's true for where you are (and other semi-snowy places), but I really doubt that around here.  Computers are good at seeing things and avoiding objects, but I've yet to see an automated car slide an icy corner and recover.

Not to mention, a lot of the roads aren't even visible during the winter. How will it know where the lines are, the turning lanes, etc?  It would take a Massive amount of resources to keep all roads cleared at all times to allow travel of automated vehicles...or, 100% of the vehicles would have to be automated. Which is not gonna happen any time soon. Just think of all the rural areas, poorer areas, etc...they'll be left in the dust.  Poor people can't afford that shit.  If someone has been buying 15 year old, $2k cars their whole life, how are they going to magically jump on the automated bandwagon?  It'll be at least a decade after their real release before they could even consider affording one.

I think those folks would be autonomous cars biggest beneficiaries. Public transportation currently needs high density and fixed routes to be even remotely viable. A pay-per-ride autonomous car based system would eliminate those barriers. IF a grandma in the middle of nowhere needs a ride she can just hail an AC.... rather than risk everyone's lives by driving, paying for a human cab driver or getting out to a public transportation that might not get where she needs to go.

[giant_mtb]

Eventually, sure, I can see that.  But it'll be a long time before a ride in an AC is cheaper than an Uber (not thay Uber even serves rural areas, but).

[AutobahnSHO]

Eventually, sure, I can see that.  But it'll be a long time before a ride in an AC is cheaper than an Uber (not thay Uber even serves rural areas, but).

-5billion

The AC is purchased once and just needs oil and belt changes (until it goes electric). Uber's model is pay people to drive cars. Take the people out of that and it will get 90% cheaper for long-term operation.

[AutobahnSHO]

Also on that note, I think the general "the computers will do it better" mentality is kind of a shame.  Cars are the essence of independence in America.  Make them all automated and we're slaves to computers.

And the masses walking around aren't already (willing) slaves??

https://www.google.com/search?q=people+walking+with+smartphones&safe=active&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi06Z3Do7bVAhUIdz4KHbOTBW8Q_AUICigB&biw=1366&bih=651

[12,000 RPM]

Eventually, sure, I can see that.  But it'll be a long time before a ride in an AC is cheaper than an Uber (not thay Uber even serves rural areas, but).

Why not? There's no driver/owner. Those are prob the biggest costs of the Uber ride, which would be eliminated essentially. Manufacturers would also proabably self insure, further driving down costs

[AutobahnSHO]

I've been saying this since the beginning. It's buoyed by fad. It will never work en masse without catastrophic levels of infrastructure spending and government control, which at that point it's probably better to spend on country-wide mass transit (not that I'd condone that of course, I'm just sayin'). But the premise itself is broken. People truly that disinterested in driving have no business owning cars - why accommodate them?

You have and you're wrong.        Your basic premise is wrong- most people DO NOT enjoy driving like some of us do. They would rather skip it altogether.

[giant_mtb]

And the masses walking around aren't already (willing) slaves??

https://www.google.com/search?q=people+walking+with+smartphones&safe=active&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi06Z3Do7bVAhUIdz4KHbOTBW8Q_AUICigB&biw=1366&bih=651

Thank you, Captain Obvious. 

[giant_mtb]

-5billion

The AC is purchased once and just needs oil and belt changes (until it goes electric). Uber's model is pay people to drive cars. Take the people out of that and it will get 90% cheaper for long-term operation.

How is buying and insuring a $30k car (conservative number for an AC, IMO) and maintaining it cheaper than paying a driver next to nothing and not paying for any maintenance or insurance?  Please don't forget that taxi vehicles put on a shitload of miles...it's not "just" oil changes and belts. lol. Tires, suspension components, etc., all have to be replaced on high-use vehicles.

-5 billion, my ass.

Edit: I'm not saying it won't ever be cheaper...but some people talk about it like it's so simple and will happen virtually overnight.

[AutobahnSHO]

How is buying and insuring a $30k car (conservative number for an AC, IMO) and maintaining it cheaper than paying a driver next to nothing and not paying for any maintenance or insurance?  Please don't forget that taxi vehicles put on a shitload of miles...it's not "just" oil changes and belts. lol. Tires, suspension components, etc., all have to be replaced on high-use vehicles.

-5 billion, my ass.

Edit: I'm not saying it won't ever be cheaper...but some people talk about it like it's so simple and will happen virtually overnight.

Human labor is always the most expensive component of USA anything.    We are too accustomed to health insurance, vacations, blah blah.

I don't think it will be overnight- for a while. When it finally explodes it'll be like those silly fidget spinners. Everywhere. From (seemingly) out of nowhere.
(idea has been around a while.)

[r0tor]

Maybe that's true for where you are (and other semi-snowy places), but I really doubt that around here.  Computers are good at seeing things and avoiding objects, but I've yet to see an automated car slide an icy corner and recover.

Not to mention, a lot of the roads aren't even visible during the winter. How will it know where the lines are, the turning lanes, etc?  It would take a Massive amount of resources to keep all roads cleared at all times to allow travel of automated vehicles...or, 100% of the vehicles would have to be automated. Which is not gonna happen any time soon. Just think of all the rural areas, poorer areas, etc...they'll be left in the dust.  Poor people can't afford that shit.  If someone has been buying 15 year old, $2k cars their whole life, how are they going to magically jump on the automated bandwagon?  It'll be at least a decade after their real release before they could even consider affording one.

Fords been testing snow

[r0tor]

Not if the shareholders and people buying them have any say

Again we are talking about 500K cars in the US alone. Not cheap shit either, avg price is prob $40K with a lot of profit baked in. You think manufacturers are going to give that up in the face of the race to the bottom that will be autonomous cars?

Keep in mind once autonomous cars really become a thing auto brands won't matter in that space. What's the diff between a Ford or Toyota if you're essentially hailing it like a cab? So if anything the enthusiast market will become more important. And that expands to "expressive" vehicles like pickups too. Dont discount the power of American individuality (as conformist and derivative as it may have become)

Dude, it's already happening

But Reuters spoke with BMW's chief financial officer, Nicolas Peter, who said BMW plans to crank up its research and development spending to concentrate on electric, autonomous and connected-car development. This R&D investment (between 5.5 and 6.5 percent of total revenue), along with the lack of profitability for EVs, will require the company to take measures to save money.

https://www.google.com/amp/jalopnik.com/the-manual-in-the-bmw-2-series-may-be-getting-axed-1796491694/amp

[giant_mtb]

Fords been testing snow

Oh, look. Some slush on the road.