Guys, we have time.

Started by 12,000 RPM, July 31, 2017, 01:32:02 PM

12,000 RPM

Quote from: giant_mtb on August 01, 2017, 09:44:24 AM
How is buying and insuring a $30k car (conservative number for an AC, IMO) and maintaining it cheaper than paying a driver next to nothing and not paying for any maintenance or insurance?  Please don't forget that taxi vehicles put on a shitload of miles...it's not "just" oil changes and belts. lol. Tires, suspension components, etc., all have to be replaced on high-use vehicles.

-5 billion, my ass.

Edit: I'm not saying it won't ever be cheaper...but some people talk about it like it's so simple and will happen virtually overnight.
On a per mile basis car ownership is currently WAY cheaper. We can even go new. Buying a new Corolla and owning it for 5 years costs about $30K all in. You drive for 15K/yr, that's $0.40/mile. In my area an UberX ride is like $1.10-125/mile. And obviously the Corolla cost goes way down if you buy used as a big chunk of that is depreciation.

Uber drivers take about 75% of the fare. 20% of that generally covers expenses. So all in removing the driver would cut Uber fees in about half- putting it very close to owning a used car. Depending on your needs and desires that would make it more than viable for a lot of people. And again, that would come down even further if people would be willing to share rides with others (as millions of people do every day via public transportation).

So the outcome will definitely result in a lower overall cost of transportation for everyone; the question is timing. IMO, and apparently in the opinion of automakers, the whole concept of car ownership will become a niche thing with automation.... "mobility" will be the move, which could be a legitimate accelerant to the process, as that overcomes the biggest logistical/legal hurdle gumming things up. But only if that mobility can work in tandem with current infrastructure and human drivers.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: giant_mtb on August 01, 2017, 11:05:13 AM
Oh, look. Some slush on the road.

LOL in many places that shuts everything down.
Will

Cookie Monster

I don't want to be forced into an automated car till I can just get in one and sleep or surf the internet or something. If I still have to pay attention, I want a fully conventional car. No middle ground.
RWD > FWD
President of the "I survived the Volvo S80 Thread" Club
2007 Mazda MX-5 | 1999 Honda Nighthawk 750 | 1989 Volvo 240 | 1991 Toyota 4Runner | 2006 Honda CBR600F4i | 2015 Yamaha FJ-09 | 1999 Honda CBR600F4 | 2009 Yamaha WR250X | 1985 Mazda RX-7 | 2000 Yamaha YZ426F | 2006 Yamaha FZ1 | 2002 Honda CBR954RR | 1996 Subaru Outback | 2018 Subaru Crosstrek | 1986 Toyota MR2
Quote from: 68_427 on November 27, 2016, 07:43:14 AM
Or order from fortune auto and when lyft rider asks why your car feels bumpy you can show them the dyno curve
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r0tor

Quote from: Cookie Monster on August 01, 2017, 01:22:15 PM
I don't want to be forced into an automated car till I can just get in one and sleep or surf the internet or something. If I still have to pay attention, I want a fully conventional car. No middle ground.

It's unlikely the general population would take that leap... Semi autonomous driving will warm people up to trusting the car systrms
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

12,000 RPM

Yea, the trust factor will add time as well. Especially with the setbacks from failures (even though they are usually user error)
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Cookie Monster

Quote from: r0tor on August 01, 2017, 01:37:07 PM
It's unlikely the general population would take that leap... Semi autonomous driving will warm people up to trusting the car systrms

Yeah, I know it will be a leap to get to completely autonomous vehicles. Even if the technology is there, laws and regulations and trust will take a long time to catch up.

I wonder if we will see truly autonomous vehicles in our lifetimes.
RWD > FWD
President of the "I survived the Volvo S80 Thread" Club
2007 Mazda MX-5 | 1999 Honda Nighthawk 750 | 1989 Volvo 240 | 1991 Toyota 4Runner | 2006 Honda CBR600F4i | 2015 Yamaha FJ-09 | 1999 Honda CBR600F4 | 2009 Yamaha WR250X | 1985 Mazda RX-7 | 2000 Yamaha YZ426F | 2006 Yamaha FZ1 | 2002 Honda CBR954RR | 1996 Subaru Outback | 2018 Subaru Crosstrek | 1986 Toyota MR2
Quote from: 68_427 on November 27, 2016, 07:43:14 AM
Or order from fortune auto and when lyft rider asks why your car feels bumpy you can show them the dyno curve
1 3 5
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2 4 R

giant_mtb

Quote from: Cookie Monster on August 01, 2017, 01:54:28 PM
Yeah, I know it will be a leap to get to completely autonomous vehicles. Even if the technology is there, laws and regulations and trust will take a long time to catch up.

I wonder if we will see truly autonomous vehicles in our lifetimes.

Considering you and I have a solid, say, 60 years left to go, I think it's possible. I don't think the total takeover will happen in that time.

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: Cookie Monster on August 01, 2017, 01:22:15 PM
I don't want to be forced into an automated car till I can just get in one and sleep or surf the internet or something. If I still have to pay attention, I want a fully conventional car. No middle ground.

That's what all of the big names are working on. If anything, everyone's "driver aids" are showing the middle ground is a bad answer. (that Tesla fatality wreck, others)

Quote from: Cookie Monster on August 01, 2017, 01:54:28 PM
I wonder if we will see truly autonomous vehicles in our lifetimes.

Supposed to be on sale starting in 2025 from the original article.
Will

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: giant_mtb on August 01, 2017, 02:22:01 PM
Considering you and I have a solid, say, 60 years left to go, I think it's possible. I don't think the total takeover will happen in that time.

Agree- it will take some time to gain momentum. Total takeover I would say is 50yrs away from now.
Will

Cookie Monster

Quote from: giant_mtb on August 01, 2017, 02:22:01 PM
Considering you and I have a solid, say, 60 years left to go, I think it's possible. I don't think the total takeover will happen in that time.

Yeah, but unless there's a ban on traditional cars completely so that automated cars can communicate with each other in their own "environment", I feel like it's not going to happen that fast. Mixing truly automated cars and conventional cars seems like a recipe for a bad time, especially with liability and insurance issues.
RWD > FWD
President of the "I survived the Volvo S80 Thread" Club
2007 Mazda MX-5 | 1999 Honda Nighthawk 750 | 1989 Volvo 240 | 1991 Toyota 4Runner | 2006 Honda CBR600F4i | 2015 Yamaha FJ-09 | 1999 Honda CBR600F4 | 2009 Yamaha WR250X | 1985 Mazda RX-7 | 2000 Yamaha YZ426F | 2006 Yamaha FZ1 | 2002 Honda CBR954RR | 1996 Subaru Outback | 2018 Subaru Crosstrek | 1986 Toyota MR2
Quote from: 68_427 on November 27, 2016, 07:43:14 AM
Or order from fortune auto and when lyft rider asks why your car feels bumpy you can show them the dyno curve
1 3 5
├┼┤
2 4 R

12,000 RPM

I think mixing the two will be a clear demonstration of the technology's viability. If autonomous cars need a clean playground to work they are worthless. They will never happen
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

12,000 RPM

Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

GoCougs

He's 100% correct. And again I've been saying this all along - automakers and related interests are more interested in looking "progressive" (his words) and other things like getting investment dollars or pumping up stock price. They are basically lying about their ability to do autonomous vehicles. He's also correct that for the foreseeable future EVs will be nothing more than a curiosity WRT the overall market.

giant_mtb

Come on, guys.  Autonomous cars are super attractive.



giant_mtb

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on August 03, 2017, 11:10:29 AM
:lol:

Love this too: http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2017/07/self-driving-taxis-will-become-the-most-disgusting-spaces-on-earth/

That's a good point, but I guarantee there will be camera systems inside driverless vehicles, which will deter at least a good portion of poor behavior.  Especially since summoning a driverless taxi will all be on record since it'll be done through an account on your phone.  I'm sure there will be self-reporting integrated as well..."This vehicle in need of service?  Push *this* button."  At which point the car's condition can be assessed by a person (oh shit, a person has to do something?!) who can then go back and see who was last in the vehicle and check the cameras if need be.

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: giant_mtb on August 03, 2017, 11:18:44 AM
That's a good point, but I guarantee there will be camera systems inside driverless vehicles, which will deter at least a good portion of poor behavior.  Especially since summoning a driverless taxi will all be on record since it'll be done through an account on your phone.  I'm sure there will be self-reporting integrated as well..."This vehicle in need of service?  Push *this* button."  At which point the car's condition can be assessed by a person (oh shit, a person has to do something?!) who can then go back and see who was last in the vehicle and check the cameras if need be.

One can only hope. And they can charge the gross passenger..  But still you won't push the button unless you can *see* the grossness.
Will

giant_mtb

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on August 03, 2017, 02:02:39 PM
But still you won't push the button unless you can *see* the grossness.

I don't see how that's any different than climbing into a manned taxi now.  Except with an actual driver, you just tell him if there's an issue. :huh:

12,000 RPM

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on August 03, 2017, 11:10:29 AM
:lol:

Love this too: http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2017/07/self-driving-taxis-will-become-the-most-disgusting-spaces-on-earth/
Eh.... like regular cabs, nobody will ride around in filth. Market forces would take care of that very quickly. They will def have cabs return to a depot where they can be cleaned out. I mean you look at cabs and public transportation now, that's basically what they do; and they can figure out the best place to put these depots so the cabs don't have to travel far to get cleaned and checked over.

What I'd be more concerned about is crime. I wouldn't want to be, for example, a woman late at night sharing a cab with a stranger. They would have to provide workarounds for that.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Lebowski

Eh, I've been in some pretty gross cabs.


I take a taxi/Uber now when I have a reason to. I can't imagine wanting to take one every day over driving my own car.  I just don't see this catching on.

12,000 RPM

Well, you drive an $80K BMW.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Lebowski

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on August 04, 2017, 06:04:18 AM
Well, you drive an $80K BMW.

Closer to $70k.

But yeah, look how many don't choose to maximize  efficiency within the current set of choices. I just don't see it happening.

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: Lebowski on August 04, 2017, 05:43:43 AM
Eh, I've been in some pretty gross cabs.

I take a taxi/Uber now when I have a reason to. I can't imagine wanting to take one every day over driving my own car.  I just don't see this catching on.

Taxis don't even survive in my hometown, there isn't the client base.   Giant city is a different story- tens of thousands of people can't own cars there (too expensive) so the taxi/ uber/ driverless taxi-uber does make sense there..
Will

Lebowski

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on August 04, 2017, 06:57:58 AM

Taxis don't even survive in my hometown, there isn't the client base.   Giant city is a different story- tens of thousands of people can't own cars there (too expensive) so the taxi/ uber/ driverless taxi-uber does make sense there..



Yep, the driverless Uber model makes perfect sense IMO ... where public transport already makes sense, car ownership is already difficult etc.

12,000 RPM

Driverless Ubers will make tons of sense in rural or even suburban areas where cabs don't. I think that's actually where it makes the most sense. Places like NYC don't have room for any more cars, autonomous or not. But I think of someone like my wife's grandmother, who lives on a fixed income in Borelando and can't afford a car, but still wants to live her life and get around. A pay per ride system that will get her door to door would be a win win and would probably be a shitload cheaper than paying to own/insure/maintain and possibly park a private car.

Similarly I know a dude with multiple DUIs ( :facepalm: ).... driverless Ubers would enable him to continue his alcoholism in peace. There are a shitload of huge use cases for this stuff well outside the bounds of coastal high density liberal enclaves
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on August 04, 2017, 08:04:47 AM
Driverless Ubers will make tons of sense in rural or even suburban areas where cabs don't.

Possibly, if the costs are lower than the current uber/ taxi models.

But also, consider the problem of cleaning the vehicle presented above. In a town which might only support 5 AC taxis (or Ubers, same thing for the most part), finance supporting a cleaning station doesn't work out well. My hometown is 12k people and many would still need to keep trucks for ranch work, but there are other areas of the country which will be similar.   It will be very much a localized thing on how successful things are. Kind of like how Uber is nowhere to be found in some places still. (like right outside Fort Leavonworth, KS, just 40min from Kansas City.)

-until everything goes 100% AC of course..    :rastaman:
Will

Lebowski

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on August 04, 2017, 08:04:47 AM

Driverless Ubers will make tons of sense in rural or even suburban areas where cabs don't. I think that's actually where it makes the most sense. Places like NYC don't have room for any more cars, autonomous or not. But I think of someone like my wife's grandmother, who lives on a fixed income in Borelando and can't afford a car, but still wants to live her life and get around. A pay per ride system that will get her door to door would be a win win and would probably be a shitload cheaper than paying to own/insure/maintain and possibly park a private car.

Similarly I know a dude with multiple DUIs ( :facepalm: ).... driverless Ubers would enable him to continue his alcoholism in peace. There are a shitload of huge use cases for this stuff well outside the bounds of coastal high density liberal enclaves



Right, it makes sense for people whom owning a car already doesn't make sense.

As for "no room for more cars", would mostly displace traditional taxis.

My point is I don't see this replacing car ownership for vast majority of Americans who currently own and want/need to own a car.  Your point on rural areas ... maybe will bring taxi service to such areas (but hasn't regular Uber already done that to a large degree?  I hardly see how adding driverless Uber's makes economic  sense in areas traditional Uber's don't), but won't replace car ownership there.

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Lebowski on August 04, 2017, 09:42:29 AM

Right, it makes sense for people whom owning a car already doesn't make sense.

As for "no room for more cars", would mostly displace traditional taxis.

My point is I don't see this replacing car ownership for vast majority of Americans who currently own and want/need to own a car.  Your point on rural areas ... maybe will bring taxi service to such areas (but hasn't regular Uber already done that to a large degree?  I hardly see how adding driverless Uber's makes economic  sense in areas traditional Uber's don't), but won't replace car ownership there.
Good point on displacement.

As for the rural area thing...  like anything economic there is a breakeven point. Driver pay eats up about 1/2 the Uber fee. Take them out the viability goes up... not everywhere but def a lot more places. And that's not even factoring in the cost savings of automakers providing the rides directly, rather than going through the rigamarole of trying to sell cars to operators.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

giant_mtb

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on August 04, 2017, 09:35:38 AM
Possibly, if the costs are lower than the current uber/ taxi models.

But also, consider the problem of cleaning the vehicle presented above. In a town which might only support 5 AC taxis (or Ubers, same thing for the most part), finance supporting a cleaning station doesn't work out well. My hometown is 12k people and many would still need to keep trucks for ranch work, but there are other areas of the country which will be similar.   It will be very much a localized thing on how successful things are. Kind of like how Uber is nowhere to be found in some places still. (like right outside Fort Leavonworth, KS, just 40min from Kansas City.)

-until everything goes 100% AC of course..    :rastaman:

I'd probably be willing to be a contract worker/detailer for taxis/AC Ubers.  Cleaning up puke is no fun, but if the money's right... :huh:

giant_mtb

Quote from: Lebowski on August 04, 2017, 09:42:29 AM
Your point on rural areas ... maybe will bring taxi service to such areas (but hasn't regular Uber already done that to a large degree?

lol no.  If by rural you mean suburban and a hair further, sure.