I think the legacy automakers are going to be demanding a LOT more time to switch to EVs. They have to fund the massive cost of pivoting to EVs, turning on a dime from 120 years of gasoline vehicle tradition, custom & practice, to building what amounts to high end laptops on wheels... under the purview of software and electrical engineers (electric traction subspecialty). And they have to fund this pivot from declining sales of their current products, for which there is declining interest and on which there are plummeting residuals.
I predict a united effort from manufacturers and unions in the US, Europe & Japan to slow-walk all these mandates. Look for them to turn to governments for the money, and look for the governments to reach into our pockets to do it. Meanwhile China will use the opportunity to dominate the markets.
Example:
Stellantis CEO says EV cost burden is 'beyond the limits' for automakers
DETROIT, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Stellantis NV (STLA.MI) Chief Executive Carlos Tavares said external pressure on automakers to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles potentially threatens jobs and vehicle quality as producers struggle to manage the higher costs of building EVs.
More:
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-ceo-says-ev-cost-burden-is-beyond-limits-automakers-2021-12-01/ (https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-ceo-says-ev-cost-burden-is-beyond-limits-automakers-2021-12-01/)
I think it's going to be much messier. With the current mandates, established automakers are bound to become SOEs, or at least nearly so (i.e., like the airline industry) in order to comply.
As I've oft repeated, I have my doubts on widespread EV adoption, forced or otherwise. It's been ~10 years and EV tech still doesn't afford an equivalent product at an equivalent price. Battery tech needs to at least get beyond 1990s architecture (thousands of discrete cells jumbled together).
If we push ahead mandating EV adoption, I have my doubts that the legacy makers can adapt - they have too much baggage. Think about it: they've got:
Massive existing production infrastructure & looking for returns on those assets.
Quarterly numbers to make
Unions to keep happy
Politicians who want the jobs and the votes
Dividends to pay out
Interest payments to make
Management, expertise & corporate culture marinated in ICE vehicles.
If politicians have to choose between the tangible danger of angry unemployed voters and the less tangible danger of climate change. I think we all know which way they'll jump.
Of course Stellantis is going to push back. They can barely build ICE cars properly. ;)
Quote from: Laconian on December 02, 2021, 01:16:02 PM
Of course Stellantis is going to push back. They can barely build ICE cars properly. ;)
A nation of contradictions, Italy that is. They have the best and worst of some things.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 02, 2021, 03:55:44 PM
A nation of contradictions, Italy that is. They have the best and worst of some things.
A consortium of B- students.
Rumors are that Herbert Diess is out at VW. He'd told the company that it needed change & most likely there'd be workforce reduction... highlighted a few uncomfortable truths about productivity vs the competition i.e. Tesla.
It's difficult to get giant supertankers to change course. So yeah, more pushback against BEVs.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 02, 2021, 03:55:44 PM
A nation of contradictions, Italy that is. They have the best and worst of some things.
Italy is the nicest 3rd world nation on the planet
Quote from: Submariner on December 02, 2021, 08:31:30 PM
Italy is the nicest 3rd world nation on the planet
:lol:
Yup you have the ultra wealthy riding on the peasantry to the extreme.
More pushback... My prediction on this:
Politicians will be bent to the will of the established players and we will have a long "transition period" of compliance PHEVs.
So your new Skoda, or Chevrolet or MINI will have an electric assist & a nominal battery. You will never plug it in because the vibrant youth in your neighborhood stole all the public charge stations' cables to sell for copper. Your ICE engine now has the extra deadweight of an unused motor and battery pack to lug around. Your CO2 emissions are higher than if you'd kept your old VW Polo.
European auto suppliers warn shift to electric would put 500,000 jobs at risk
EU plan to ban combustion-engine cars by 2035 could cause mass unemployment, say companies
More:
https://www.ft.com/content/1e0040c9-aab2-4881-828b-e992f23a9f3e (https://www.ft.com/content/1e0040c9-aab2-4881-828b-e992f23a9f3e)
Cash for clunkers.... Or EV conversions. Give me $10,000 and I will convert my Jeep to electricities.
They're way under estimating. Imagine all the gas station jobs. Sure some may turn to quick charging stations but also imagine all the oil change jobs. And _____ jobs.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 11, 2021, 09:52:37 PM
They're way under estimating. Imagine all the gas station jobs. Sure some may turn to quick charging stations but also imagine all the oil change jobs. And _____ jobs.
They will have to add oil tanks to EVs just so the oil change places can stay in business.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 11, 2021, 09:52:37 PM
They're way under estimating. Imagine all the gas station jobs. Sure some may turn to quick charging stations but also imagine all the oil change jobs. And _____ jobs.
Imagine all the farriers that went out of business in the 1920's!
There are something like 40% less gas stations in the US compared to a couple decades ago
Quote from: r0tor on December 13, 2021, 12:39:00 PM
There are something like 40% less gas stations in the US compared to a couple decades ago
Most of that seems to be older small gas stations going out of business as larger stations with more pumps and nicer convenience stores move in.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 11, 2021, 09:52:37 PM
They're way under estimating. Imagine all the gas station jobs. Sure some may turn to quick charging stations but also imagine all the oil change jobs. And _____ jobs.
It's simply part of technological evolution. It usually occurs in smaller increments, but sometimes there's a significant step. The first major technological leap may well have been the wheel. All though people carrying stuff may well have had to find a different profession.
In general, we should think about how rapid technological progress is making jobs obsolete, and have a plan for dealing with it. It's a pattern we're seeing and it's accelerating at an exponential rate.
But really, these are shit jobs that we probably won't miss. I'm sure that whatever will replace the current paradigm will come with its own labor needs.
Quote from: Laconian on December 13, 2021, 01:13:56 PM
But really, these are shit jobs that we probably won't miss.
Wow. I mean, that's easy for you to say. I'm sure the people supporting their family's with them do not think the same thing.
I don't think that we should stop innovation to save jobs, but I think that's a pretty elitist thing to say.
Driving on the way home from the Salton Sea for a random road trip this weekend, I ended up having to drive the speed limit for about 45 miles to make it to the nearest supercharger station, I had about 60 miles of range when I got there too. Ended up at the station with 3 miles of range left. Probably could've still drive faster and make it but I didn't want to risk it.
Quote from: MrH on December 13, 2021, 01:19:41 PM
Wow. I mean, that's easy for you to say. I'm sure the people supporting their family's with them do not think the same thing.
I don't think that we should stop innovation to save jobs, but I think that's a pretty elitist thing to say.
I think that it's a realistic thing to say. It's simply how capitalism works.
I guarantee you California's electrical system couldn't handle a majority percentage of EVs. If electricity is generated by natural gas, WTF is the point?
Every damn dime these crazy politicians are sinking into renewables and EVs should be diverted to perfecting fusion reactors.
That's the only way to kill fossil fuels.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 13, 2021, 01:29:17 PM
I think that it's a realistic thing to say. It's simply how capitalism works.
I wouldn't call the government forcing industries to change dramatically through legislation capitalism.
Quote from: MrH on December 13, 2021, 01:19:41 PM
Wow. I mean, that's easy for you to say. I'm sure the people supporting their family's with them do not think the same thing.
I don't think that we should stop innovation to save jobs, but I think that's a pretty elitist thing to say.
Relying on a job to support your family doesn't mean the job itself doesn't suck.
Overall, society is better off with technological progress and removing the need for "old" jobs, so people can move on to newer/better jobs. But on an individual level, it does suck sometimes. Some people get left behind. Sometimes whole towns get left behind. We (as a society) could do better when it comes to helping those folks.
Quote from: Laconian on December 13, 2021, 01:13:56 PM
In general, we should think about how rapid technological progress is making jobs obsolete, and have a plan for dealing with it. It's a pattern we're seeing and it's accelerating at an exponential rate.
But really, these are shit jobs that we probably won't miss. I'm sure that whatever will replace the current paradigm will come with its own labor needs.
+1
Quote from: MrH on December 13, 2021, 01:53:02 PM
I wouldn't call the government forcing industries to change dramatically through legislation capitalism.
+1
Quote from: CaminoRacer on December 13, 2021, 02:08:40 PM
Relying on a job to support your family doesn't mean the job itself doesn't suck.
Overall, society is better off with technological progress and removing the need for "old" jobs, so people can move on to newer/better jobs. But on an individual level, it does suck sometimes. Some people get left behind. Sometimes whole towns get left behind. We (as a society) could do better when it comes to helping those folks.
+1
:lol:
Quote from: MrH on December 13, 2021, 01:53:02 PM
I wouldn't call the government forcing industries to change dramatically through legislation capitalism.
What would you call it?
Quote from: MrH on December 13, 2021, 01:19:41 PM
Wow. I mean, that's easy for you to say. I'm sure the people supporting their family's with them do not think the same thing.
I don't think that we should stop innovation to save jobs, but I think that's a pretty elitist thing to say.
Yeah, tell me with a straight face that it's not a shit job. :lol:
Creative destruction is the MO of capitalism. Private industry engages in it on a scale that's orders of magnitude worse than EVs nuking grease monkeys' temp work. Did you read what I said in the following sentence about how society needs to reckon with this fact? It's elitist to look the other way and pretend that everyone is bootstrappy and educated enough to adapt to their jobs being deprecated.
Jobs are evaporating, but jobs are being created, too - the responsible thing to do is invest in guiding the victims of capitalism to the new opportunities that it affords. Otherwise we just get stuck with the losses and get none of the wins.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 13, 2021, 02:19:50 PM
What would you call it?
Fascism, of which, "state control of private property" is a preeminent definition.
And where's the concern about the streetcar operator jobs which went away when GM lobbied the governments to rip everything up for private automobile roads?
Quote from: GoCougs on December 13, 2021, 03:03:34 PM
Fascism, of which, "state control of private property" is a preeminent definition.
Nonsense, it called a "Modern Capitalist Society ~
a type of capitalist society in which a capitalist class of "new elites" and "old elites" concerned with maximizing their wealth secures a political system that serves and protects their interests.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 13, 2021, 03:10:12 PM
Nonsense, it called a "Modern Capitalist Society ~ a type of capitalist society in which a capitalist class of "new elites" and "old elites" concerned with maximizing their wealth secures a political system that serves and protects their interests.
A term invented in the last 10 years, by people of no real noteworthiness.
Quote from: Laconian on December 13, 2021, 03:06:16 PM
And where's the concern about the streetcar operator jobs which went away when GM lobbied the governments to rip everything up for private automobile roads?
Almost every job in existence today either did not exist 100 years ago, or has so fundamentally changed it barely resembles what it was.
There is no reason to think this pattern will not continue.
Oh, and many people did protest the removal of the streetcars in Detroit. Enough so that a vestigial street car service ran here until the '90s.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 13, 2021, 03:10:12 PM
Nonsense, it called a "Modern Capitalist Society ~ a type of capitalist society in which a capitalist class of "new elites" and "old elites" concerned with maximizing their wealth secures a political system that serves and protects their interests.
That's fascism too - a "political system" that protects a class is (also) by definition state control of private property.
Quote from: GoCougs on December 13, 2021, 03:39:57 PM
That's fascism too - a "political system" that protects a class is (also) by definition state control of private property.
I believe that there is a distinction. A Modern Capitalist Society is where money, the wealthy, control the government whereas Fascism is where a dictatorial government controls the wealth as well as the people.
Quote from: Laconian on December 13, 2021, 03:03:10 PM
Yeah, tell me with a straight face that it's not a shit job. :lol:
Creative destruction is the MO of capitalism. Private industry engages in it on a scale that's orders of magnitude worse than EVs nuking grease monkeys' temp work. Did you read what I said in the following sentence about how society needs to reckon with this fact? It's elitist to look the other way and pretend that everyone is bootstrappy and educated enough to adapt to their jobs being deprecated.
Jobs are evaporating, but jobs are being created, too - the responsible thing to do is invest in guiding the victims of capitalism to the new opportunities that it affords. Otherwise we just get stuck with the losses and get none of the wins.
This isn't creative destruction. It's legislative destruction.
Just FYI, EVs require less maintenance, but they break just as often as ICE cars. Ask me how I know. :muffin:
Quote from: MrH on December 13, 2021, 04:29:06 PM
This isn't creative destruction. It's legislative destruction.
We're not letting the market decide.. the market is deciding in some part but the government is forcing a lot of it.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 13, 2021, 03:59:36 PM
I believe that there is a distinction. A Modern Capitalist Society is where money, the wealthy, control the government whereas Fascism is where a dictatorial government controls the wealth as well as the people.
What you're describing is an oligarchy; which to be fair, can be applied both to fascism and to modern US; but I think we're straying from the point.
Government actions are specifically not capitalist in nature; whether or not those actions benefit the rich is irrelevant.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on December 13, 2021, 05:06:56 PM
What you're describing is an oligarchy; which to be fair, can be applied both to fascism and to modern US; but I think we're straying from the point.
Government actions are specifically not capitalist in nature; whether or not those actions benefit the rich is irrelevant.
As I understand it, Fascism is a political system, usually a brutal dictatorship, that nominally controls the economy more or less by proxy; essentially a state controlled economy. An Oligarchy is a group of wealthy individuals that control the country.
Capitalism is, of course, an economical system that can function within different political systems, but normally within a representative democracy. Modern capitalism is said to be
"a type of capitalist society in which a capitalist class of "new elites" and "old elites" concerned with maximizing their wealth secures a political system that serves and protects their interests."There is little doubt that wealthy individuals/groups have a significant influence over political legislation, even within a representative democracy.
That's how I see it, though it may not quite fit some definitions.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 13, 2021, 03:59:36 PM
I believe that there is a distinction. A Modern Capitalist Society is where money, the wealthy, control the government whereas Fascism is where a dictatorial government controls the wealth as well as the people.
That's all the same.
Quote from: GoCougs on December 13, 2021, 06:53:00 PM
That's all the same.
Fascism was founded as a brutal totalitarian dictatorship that controlled the economy as well as the public. Not so a Modern Capitalist (economic) system which is concerned primarily with private wealth. It functions within a democratic political system by influencing who is elected and what decisions/bills are made into law. Look at most Western democracies as examples.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 13, 2021, 07:08:28 PM
Fascism was founded as a brutal totalitarian dictatorship that controlled the economy as well as the public. Not so a Modern Capitalist (economic) system which is concerned primarily with private wealth. It functions within a democratic political system by influencing who is elected and what decisions/bills are made into law. Look at most Western democracies as examples.
Are you not paying attention to what's going on in the last 10 years? Or even 5 years?
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 13, 2021, 07:08:28 PM
Fascism was founded as a brutal totalitarian dictatorship that controlled the economy as well as the public. Not so a Modern Capitalist (economic) system which is concerned primarily with private wealth. It functions within a democratic political system by influencing who is elected and what decisions/bills are made into law. Look at most Western democracies as examples.
Fascism was voted into power on the backs of jobs, crime prevention, public works projects and general social stability such as schools and hospitals, and for a good portion of its existence used existing political infrastructure. Of course, things were never a fairy tale and didn't end well.
Quote from: GoCougs on December 13, 2021, 07:59:30 PM
Fascism was voted into power on the backs of jobs, crime prevention, public works projects and general social stability such as schools and hospitals, and for a good portion of its existence used existing political infrastructure. Of course, things were never a fairy tale and didn't end well.
So was Nazism, a more brutal form of Fascism. However, they evolve very quickly into the brutal regimes that perpetrated so much evil. Not so different from Communism, only Communism has also required a revolution in some instances. Interesting that even now there is a resurgence in a number of nations, including Italy, towards a more Fascist state.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 14, 2021, 09:28:09 AM
So was Nazism, a more brutal form of Fascism. However, they evolve very quickly into the brutal regimes that perpetrated so much evil. Not so different from Communism, only Communism has also required a revolution in some instances. Interesting that even now there is a resurgence in a number of nations, including Italy, towards a more Fascist state.
Or Australia back to a penal colony
Quote from: NomisR on December 14, 2021, 09:44:27 AM
Or Australia back to a penal colony
I haven't been really following the back and forth in this thread, but I want to say that I fully endorse and support transforming Australia back to a penal colony.
They have COVID concentration camps in Australia. The cops aggressively pursue escapees, too. Damn.
Quote from: shp4man on December 14, 2021, 11:48:57 AM
They have COVID concentration camps in Australia. The cops aggressively pursue escapees, too. Damn.
Wow. Send them to the other side of the dingo fence?
Quote from: NomisR on December 14, 2021, 09:44:27 AM
Or Australia back to a penal colony
Yep, too late ;).
How Australia (and New Zealand) fell so far so fast is such a shame.
Quote from: SJ_GTI on December 14, 2021, 10:50:47 AM
I haven't been really following the back and forth in this thread, but I want to say that I fully endorse and support transforming Australia back to a penal colony.
For who?
Quote from: shp4man on December 14, 2021, 11:48:57 AM
They have COVID concentration camps in Australia. The cops aggressively pursue escapees, too. Damn.
There you go believing politicians again.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 14, 2021, 03:10:25 PM
There you go believing politicians again.
They're still saying it's a conspiracy theory that these camps exists while at the same time they're touting these camps as a summer camp vacation for these people being quarantined.
To heck with electric power. Everything should be gas powered!
https://youtu.be/XbCLokA3XP8
Quote from: NomisR on December 14, 2021, 03:49:50 PM
They're still saying it's a conspiracy theory that these camps exists while at the same time they're touting these camps as a summer camp vacation for these people being quarantined.
There are facilities (hotels) where people arriving in Australia may be quarantined under certain circumstances. This occurs in a number of countries with variations.
I'm wobbly on Giga Berlin - I think opposition from entrenched interests, environmentalists, & regulatory roadblocks are too much of a headwind. It really would have been better if they'd built elsewhere. Czech Republic maybe.
I suppose you could argue it's a backhanded compliment to Musk & Tesla that the threat they represent is serious enough to have mobilized this level of opposition, but honestly Germany in general is not exactly a great place to complete new business projects and that particular area is even less welcoming. Brandenburg is a backwater for a reason. All the action is further west & southwest.
Quote from: Morris Minor on December 15, 2021, 07:21:12 AM
I'm wobbly on Giga Berlin - I think opposition from entrenched interests, environmentalists, & regulatory roadblocks are too much of a headwind. It really would have been better if they'd built elsewhere. Czech Republic maybe.
I suppose your could argue it's a backhanded compliment to Musk & Tesla that the threat they represent is serious enough to have mobilized this level of opposition, but honestly Germany in general is not exactly a great place to complete new business projects and that particular area is even less welcoming. Brandenburg is a backwater for a reason. All the action is further west & south west.
The Brandenburg airport should have been a giant red flag.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on December 15, 2021, 08:05:16 AM
The Brandenburg airport should have been a giant red flag.
Exactamundo, an infamous and a well-publicized poster child for that kind of dysfunction.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 14, 2021, 07:44:31 PM
There are facilities (hotels) where people arriving in Australia may be quarantined under certain circumstances. This occurs in a number of countries with variations.
Hotels? Are you kidding.. let's move this topic out of here but you've obviously never seen the camps in Austrailia because they're not done at hotels