EV Pushback

[Morris Minor]

I think the legacy automakers are going to be demanding a LOT more time to switch to EVs. They have to fund the massive cost of pivoting to EVs, turning on a dime from 120 years of gasoline vehicle tradition, custom & practice, to building what amounts to high end laptops on wheels... under the purview of software and electrical engineers (electric traction subspecialty). And they have to fund this pivot from declining sales of their current products, for which there is declining interest and on which there are plummeting residuals.

I predict a united effort from manufacturers and unions in the US, Europe & Japan to slow-walk all these mandates. Look for them to turn to governments for the money, and look for the governments to reach into our pockets to do it. Meanwhile China will use the opportunity to dominate the markets.

[Morris Minor]

Example:

Stellantis CEO says EV cost burden is 'beyond the limits' for automakers
DETROIT, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Stellantis NV (STLA.MI) Chief Executive Carlos Tavares said external pressure on automakers to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles potentially threatens jobs and vehicle quality as producers struggle to manage the higher costs of building EVs.
More:
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-ceo-says-ev-cost-burden-is-beyond-limits-automakers-2021-12-01/

[GoCougs]

I think it's going to be much messier. With the current mandates, established automakers are bound to become SOEs, or at least nearly so (i.e., like the airline industry) in order to comply.

As I've oft repeated, I have my doubts on widespread EV adoption, forced or otherwise. It's been ~10 years and EV tech still doesn't afford an equivalent product at an equivalent price. Battery tech needs to at least get beyond 1990s architecture (thousands of discrete cells jumbled together).

[Morris Minor]

If we push ahead mandating EV adoption, I have my doubts that the legacy makers can adapt - they have too much baggage. Think about it: they've got:
Massive existing production infrastructure & looking for returns on those assets.
Quarterly numbers to make
Unions to keep happy
Politicians who want the jobs and the votes
Dividends to pay out
Interest payments to make
Management, expertise & corporate culture marinated in ICE vehicles.


If politicians have to choose between the tangible danger of angry unemployed voters and the less tangible danger of climate change. I think we all know which way they'll jump.

[Laconian]

Of course Stellantis is going to push back. They can barely build ICE cars properly.

[FoMoJo]

Of course Stellantis is going to push back. They can barely build ICE cars properly.

A nation of contradictions, Italy that is.  They have the best and worst of some things.

[Laconian]

A nation of contradictions, Italy that is.  They have the best and worst of some things.

A consortium of B- students.

[Morris Minor]

Rumors are that Herbert Diess is out at VW. He'd told the company that it needed change & most likely there'd be workforce reduction... highlighted a few uncomfortable truths about productivity vs the competition i.e. Tesla.
It's difficult to get giant supertankers to change course. So yeah, more pushback against BEVs.

[Submariner]

A nation of contradictions, Italy that is.  They have the best and worst of some things.

Italy is the nicest 3rd world nation on the planet

[AutobahnSHO]

Italy is the nicest 3rd world nation on the planet

Yup you have the ultra wealthy riding on the peasantry to the extreme.

[Morris Minor]

More pushback...  My prediction on this:
Politicians will be bent to the will of the established players and we will have a long "transition period" of compliance PHEVs.
So your new Skoda, or Chevrolet or MINI will have an electric assist & a nominal battery. You will never plug it in because the vibrant youth in your neighborhood stole all the public charge stations' cables to sell for copper. Your ICE engine now has the extra deadweight of an unused motor and battery pack to lug around. Your CO2 emissions are higher than if you'd kept your old VW Polo.

European auto suppliers warn shift to electric would put 500,000 jobs at risk
EU plan to ban combustion-engine cars by 2035 could cause mass unemployment, say companies
More:
https://www.ft.com/content/1e0040c9-aab2-4881-828b-e992f23a9f3e

[Eye of the Tiger]

Cash for clunkers.... Or EV conversions. Give me $10,000 and I will convert my Jeep to electricities.

[AutobahnSHO]

They're way under estimating. Imagine all the gas station jobs. Sure some may turn to quick charging stations but also imagine all the oil change jobs. And _____ jobs.

[Eye of the Tiger]

They're way under estimating. Imagine all the gas station jobs. Sure some may turn to quick charging stations but also imagine all the oil change jobs. And _____ jobs.

They will have to add oil tanks to EVs just so the oil change places can stay in business.

[Laconian]

They're way under estimating. Imagine all the gas station jobs. Sure some may turn to quick charging stations but also imagine all the oil change jobs. And _____ jobs.

Imagine all the farriers that went out of business in the 1920's!

[r0tor]

There are something like 40% less gas stations in the US compared to a couple decades ago

[RomanChariot]

There are something like 40% less gas stations in the US compared to a couple decades ago

Most of that seems to be older small gas stations going out of business as larger stations with more pumps and nicer convenience stores move in.

[FoMoJo]

They're way under estimating. Imagine all the gas station jobs. Sure some may turn to quick charging stations but also imagine all the oil change jobs. And _____ jobs.

It's simply part of technological evolution.  It usually occurs in smaller increments, but sometimes there's a significant step.  The first major technological leap may well have been the wheel.  All though people carrying stuff may well have had to find a different profession.

[Laconian]

In general, we should think about how rapid technological progress is making jobs obsolete, and have a plan for dealing with it. It's a pattern we're seeing and it's accelerating at an exponential rate.

But really, these are shit jobs that we probably won't miss. I'm sure that whatever will replace the current paradigm will come with its own labor needs.

[MrH]

But really, these are shit jobs that we probably won't miss.

Wow.  I mean, that's easy for you to say.  I'm sure the people supporting their family's with them do not think the same thing.

I don't think that we should stop innovation to save jobs, but I think that's a pretty elitist thing to say.

[NomisR]

Driving on the way home from the Salton Sea for a random road trip this weekend, I ended up having to drive the speed limit for about 45 miles to make it to the nearest supercharger station, I had about 60 miles of range when I got there too.  Ended up at the station with 3 miles of range left.  Probably could've still drive faster and make it but I didn't want to risk it. 

[FoMoJo]

Wow.  I mean, that's easy for you to say.  I'm sure the people supporting their family's with them do not think the same thing.

I don't think that we should stop innovation to save jobs, but I think that's a pretty elitist thing to say.

I think that it's a realistic thing to say.  It's simply how capitalism works.

[shp4man]

I guarantee you California's electrical system couldn't handle a majority percentage of EVs. If electricity is generated by natural gas, WTF is the point?
Every damn dime these crazy politicians are sinking into renewables and EVs should be diverted to perfecting fusion reactors.
That's the only way to kill fossil fuels.

[MrH]

I think that it's a realistic thing to say.  It's simply how capitalism works.

I wouldn't call the government forcing industries to change dramatically through legislation capitalism.

[CaminoRacer]

Wow.  I mean, that's easy for you to say.  I'm sure the people supporting their family's with them do not think the same thing.

I don't think that we should stop innovation to save jobs, but I think that's a pretty elitist thing to say.

Relying on a job to support your family doesn't mean the job itself doesn't suck.

Overall, society is better off with technological progress and removing the need for "old" jobs, so people can move on to newer/better jobs. But on an individual level, it does suck sometimes. Some people get left behind. Sometimes whole towns get left behind. We (as a society) could do better when it comes to helping those folks.

[AutobahnSHO]

In general, we should think about how rapid technological progress is making jobs obsolete, and have a plan for dealing with it. It's a pattern we're seeing and it's accelerating at an exponential rate.

But really, these are shit jobs that we probably won't miss. I'm sure that whatever will replace the current paradigm will come with its own labor needs.

+1

[AutobahnSHO]

I wouldn't call the government forcing industries to change dramatically through legislation capitalism.

+1

[AutobahnSHO]

Relying on a job to support your family doesn't mean the job itself doesn't suck.

Overall, society is better off with technological progress and removing the need for "old" jobs, so people can move on to newer/better jobs. But on an individual level, it does suck sometimes. Some people get left behind. Sometimes whole towns get left behind. We (as a society) could do better when it comes to helping those folks.

+1

[FoMoJo]

I wouldn't call the government forcing industries to change dramatically through legislation capitalism.

What would you call it?

[Laconian]

Wow.  I mean, that's easy for you to say.  I'm sure the people supporting their family's with them do not think the same thing.

I don't think that we should stop innovation to save jobs, but I think that's a pretty elitist thing to say.

Yeah, tell me with a straight face that it's not a shit job.

Creative destruction is the MO of capitalism. Private industry engages in it on a scale that's orders of magnitude worse than EVs nuking grease monkeys' temp work. Did you read what I said in the following sentence about how society needs to reckon with this fact? It's elitist to look the other way and pretend that everyone is bootstrappy and educated enough to adapt to their jobs being deprecated.

Jobs are evaporating, but jobs are being created, too - the responsible thing to do is invest in guiding the victims of capitalism to the new opportunities that it affords. Otherwise we just get stuck with the losses and get none of the wins.