I'm posting this here because I think the implications of this are huge. Big caveat though, gut check says a survey of ~1100 might not be representative of the millions of pickup truck owners out there.
https://go.cargurus.com/2019PickupTruckSurvey.html?7521_rm_id=167.26626933.34
Bigger question is whether or not this is a growing trend. Hopefully they follow up with this next year. But even a ~15% drop in pickup sales is bad news bears for the American "auto" industry.
Well, its been a growing sentiment that more and more truck owners aren't "real" truck owners.
By that I mean many of them never tow anything, and rarely haul anything dirty, oversized, or otherwise needing a pickup. Consequently, trucks are under pressure to be both a good car, and a good truck; and the people whonwant good cars are more and more unwilling to deal with the drawbacks of a truck and truck people are
more and more resentful of the extra cost associated with making their trucks more carlike.
Older trucks in good condition like square body Chevies and highboy Fords are pulling a premium now too, so there are folks who simply want good straight forward trucks.
Good news for sedans in there
Quote from: Soup DeVille on March 29, 2019, 07:59:26 AM
Well, its been a growing sentiment that more and more truck owners aren't "real" truck owners.
By that I mean many of them never tow anything, and rarely haul anything dirty, oversized, or otherwise needing a pickup. Consequently, trucks are under pressure to be both a good car, and a good truck; and the people whonwant good cars are more and more unwilling to deal with the drawbacks of a truck and truck people are
more and more resentful of the extra cost associated with making their trucks more carlike.
Older trucks in good condition like square body Chevies and highboy Fords are pulling a premium now too, so there are folks who simply want good straight forward trucks.
Square body Chevies are heating up pretty good. You can still find them cheap if you look around a bit.
You should take a trip south, find a rust free example. You'd have a project that you could tell yourself was an investment. ;)
I'd actually love a '78-'79 Ford, but its not in the cards right now.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on March 29, 2019, 07:59:26 AM
Well, its been a growing sentiment that more and more truck owners aren't "real" truck owners.
By that I mean many of them never tow anything, and rarely haul anything dirty, oversized, or otherwise needing a pickup. Consequently, trucks are under pressure to be both a good car, and a good truck; and the people whonwant good cars are more and more unwilling to deal with the drawbacks of a truck and truck people are
more and more resentful of the extra cost associated with making their trucks more carlike.
Older trucks in good condition like square body Chevies and highboy Fords are pulling a premium now too, so there are folks who simply want good straight forward trucks.
:hesaid: Me and the guys just had this talk. A couple of them have full size trucks thenselves but they are shocked at how much new trucks cost. I told them it's because trucks are the new Luxury Sedans. I see 60K Denalis/F150/Rams all day but I can't tell you the last time is saw an 60K 5 Series or E Class........
Quote from: shp4man on March 29, 2019, 08:48:42 AM
Square body Chevies are heating up pretty good. You can still find them cheap if you look around a bit.
You should take a trip south, find a rust free example. You'd have a project that you could tell yourself was an investment. ;)
This came up also! My friend mentioned the two Square Bodies my pops had when we were kids back in the 80s (A white and green '79 and a black and silver '86) and I told him I wish I still had them! I keep my eye on them tho! If can catch a bargain I'm going to snatch one up!
I'm not sure what's new or meaningful here. 17% of truck owners are unlikely to buy another ... ok? What was that figure 3, 5, 10 years ago? What percent of non pickup owners are considering a pickup as their next vehicle? There's always a portion of the mix that are both first time pickup owners and last time pickup owners. People might switch brands if the price of their brand goes up $10k ... ok, no shit, and this assumes the other brands don't also go up in price?
Also what people say in surveys and what they actually do are not always the same.
Now that we have the new ColoCanyon out there, mid-sizers seem to be making a comeback. Most people don't need a full-size Silverado, but if they wanna stick with a GM and save $10k, well...
Will likely see lots of the new Rangers popping up as well over the next couple years. The mid-sizers of today are the full-sizers of 10 years ago.
Though, I do live in Truck Country, so my anecdotal experience that trucks are going nowhere may be skewed.
Quote from: Lebowski on March 29, 2019, 08:59:39 AM
I'm not sure what's new or meaningful here. 17% of truck owners are unlikely to buy another ... ok? What was that figure 3, 5, 10 years ago? What percent of non pickup owners are considering a pickup as their next vehicle? There's always a portion of the mix that are both first time pickup owners and last time pickup owners. People might switch brands if the price of their brand goes up $10k ... ok, no shit, and this assumes the other brands don't also go up in price?
Also what people say in surveys and what they actually do are not always the same.
I think I acknowledged as much in the OP.
Quote from: giant_mtb on March 29, 2019, 09:24:06 AM
Though, I do live in Truck Country, so my anecdotal experience that trucks are going nowhere may be skewed.
If you are seeing midsizers making a comeback then they probably are. But "midsizers" of today are full sizers of the past. I don't know if people were towing much more than aluminum bicycle trailers with those old 2.3L Rangers but there does seem to be a void at the bottom. Wondering if people would be into something like a Transit pickup.
Quote from: giant_mtb on March 29, 2019, 09:18:25 AM
Now that we have the new ColoCanyon out there, mid-sizers seem to be making a comeback. Most people don't need a full-size Silverado, but if they wanna stick with a GM and save $10k, well...
Will likely see lots of the new Rangers popping up as well over the next couple years. The mid-sizers of today are the full-sizers of 10 years ago.
Yeah the new Tacos and Colorados are still BIG.
I think my future garage might be:
- El Camino
- Motorcycle (or maybe not)
- Civic/Accord sedan
- Tacoma
Sedan for every day driving and Taco for camping and mountains. Although if I leave Utah the need for a Taco goes down a lot.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on March 29, 2019, 10:47:11 AM
I think my future garage might be:
- El Camino
- Motorcycle (or maybe not)
- Civic/Accord sedan
- Tacoma
Sedan for every day driving and Taco for camping and mountains. Although if I leave Utah the need for a Taco goes down a lot.
Ditch the Taco and get a Cobra rep.
I am fed up.
Quote from: FoMoJo on March 29, 2019, 11:18:03 AM
Ditch the Taco and get a Cobra rep.
That's in the plans as well.
My brother was looking for a new/preowned pickup to replace his B3000 but there was nothing close to his price range. Even very base trim level 4x4s were high 20s low 30s. Resale is high too, so he's going with a pre-owned Outback instead.
Quote from: Speed_Racer on March 29, 2019, 12:03:49 PM
My brother was looking for a new/preowned pickup to replace his B3000 but there was nothing close to his price range. Even very base trim level 4x4s were high 20s low 30s. Resale is high too, so he's going with a pre-owned Outback instead.
Used 4x4 prices are ridiculous. Trucks with 200k miles going for $10k?
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 29, 2019, 10:41:59 AM
I think I acknowledged as much in the OP.
Then why the clickbait title?
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 29, 2019, 10:41:59 AM
If you are seeing midsizers making a comeback then they probably are. But "midsizers" of today are full sizers of the past. I don't know if people were towing much more than aluminum bicycle trailers with those old 2.3L Rangers but there does seem to be a void at the bottom. Wondering if people would be into something like a Transit pickup.
I don't think there's real demand for smaller trucks. Something smaller than the current midsizers would either have a tiny bed or tiny/no rear seats. An SUV with folding seats makes for a more flexible vehicle - cargo room when you need it, passenger room when you don't.
Maybe something like a transit pickup could work, but only because it would be cheap to develop off the existing platform.
Modern pickups have so many items as standard equipment and the price reflects it. Trucks used to be more of a utility vehicle.
Example, A base F150 has:
ABS braking
Intermittent wipers
A/C
Power steering
Power brakes
Airbags
Automatic Transmission
Automatic headlights
Rear view camera
My old truck has none of those things.
All the whining about price is also a bit overblown, IMO. A base Ranger costs $24k, which is equivalent to $16k from twenty years ago.
Quote from: BimmerM3 on March 29, 2019, 12:55:32 PM
All the whining about price is also a bit overblown, IMO. A base Ranger costs $24k, which is equivalent to $16k from twenty years ago.
Haven't median real wages been flat in that time though? I think that cars/trucks/goods now being a larger % of one's income is the bigger issue.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 29, 2019, 10:41:59 AM
I think I acknowledged as much in the OP.
Your main caveat was re sample size and said the implications are "huge" and implied it somehow related to a 15% decline in sales. How? If 100% of people thinking about not buying a truck next time don't and zero people currently not driving pickups buy one?
I don't find the results surprising or implying much change in buying patterns if any.
Quote from: Speed_Racer on March 29, 2019, 01:35:06 PM
Haven't median real wages been flat in that time though? I think that cars/trucks/goods now being a larger % of one's income is the bigger issue.
"Real wages" account for inflation, so that shouldn't factor in at all if they're flat.
Maybe trucks have increased more in price than cars and SUVs have? Or maybe people's perceptions are just thrown off because they're looking at the crazy luxury or off-road trims instead of the base models.
It's also hard to gauge truck prices manufacturers list MSRP so high then toss a bunch of rebates at you depending on the season. I wonder if that plays into it too
Quote from: MX793 on March 29, 2019, 12:38:21 PM
The rent is too damn high
I am tired of working three jobs just to pay for my pickup truck rental.
At work just today guy was talking about getting a vasectomy cuz his twins are all he wants- he doesn't ever "have to consider buying a minivan".
TONS of guys in our country are wrapped around "image" and the truck does it for them.
Now I will say it is absolutely shocking the difference in vehicles here in DC burbs compared to upstate NY. Pickups were so super common up there and downright rare around here, comparatively speaking. People buy what they think they need- as well as what they can afford- as well as what everyone else buys.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on March 29, 2019, 08:37:40 PM
At work just today guy was talking about getting a vasectomy cuz his twins are all he wants- he doesn't ever "have to consider buying a minivan".
TONS of guys in our country are wrapped around "image" and the truck does it for them.
Now I will say it is absolutely shocking the difference in vehicles here in DC burbs compared to upstate NY. Pickups were so super common up there and downright rare around here, comparatively speaking. People buy what they think they need- as well as what they can afford- as well as what everyone else buys.
It's more difficult to own a full size pickup in a city environment. Parking garages are tight and many of them will charge you more. Street parking is harder to find because you need more space. Instead people buy Wranglers.
Quote from: veeman on March 29, 2019, 09:00:18 PM
It's more difficult to own a full size pickup in a city environment. Parking garages are tight and many of them will charge you more. Street parking is harder to find because you need more space. Instead people buy Wranglers.
Totally correct. I see very few Jeeps around here too (at least compared to upstate NY).
Quote from: CaminoRacer on March 29, 2019, 10:47:11 AM
I think my future garage might be:
- El Camino
- Motorcycle (or maybe not)
- Civic/Accord sedan
- Tacoma
Sedan for every day driving and Taco for camping and mountains. Although if I leave Utah the need for a Taco goes down a lot.
My ideal garage is actually similar:
-accord or some sort of sedan/hatch
-Miata
-Tacoma
It's actually going to happen too I think. My dad wants back in a Tacoma and will spec it the same way I'd want it (4x4, access cab, 6 speed manual, V6). I told him if he buys another, he can keep it as long as he wants. When he's ready for something else I'll buy it off of him and keep it at my place.
Quote from: MrH on March 30, 2019, 08:10:28 PM
My ideal garage is actually similar:
-accord or some sort of sedan/hatch
-Miata
-Tacoma
It's actually going to happen too I think. My dad wants back in a Tacoma and will spec it the same way I'd want it (4x4, access cab, 6 speed manual, V6). I told him if he buys another, he can keep it as long as he wants. When he's ready for something else I'll buy it off of him and keep it at my place.
jelly
Quote from: r0tor on March 29, 2019, 08:32:18 AM
Good news for sedans in there
I've been a stubborn sedan owner all these years. No trucks, no SUVs. I like a fast, nimble sedan/car. I don't want to drive my living room around with me, or have a big bed that I would fill with something once every 2 years. It's all about lifestyle and image. Some people have a use for trucks and SUVs, but I don't. And others just like the image of owning one, though I think that the original masculine image that SUVs used to project has migrated over to pickup trucks as more and more SUVs have become chick vehicles.
Quote from: BimmerM3 on March 29, 2019, 12:55:32 PM
All the whining about price is also a bit overblown, IMO. A base Ranger costs $24k, which is equivalent to $16k from twenty years ago.
Good luck finding one at that price without having to special order it. Rangers, Colorados, Tacomas, etc typically have some equipment and start in the high thirties and well into the forties at dealerships, where the better profit margins are.
https://jalopnik.com/the-2020-jeep-gladiator-costs-35-040-to-62-310-heres-1833680540
Quote from: Rockraven on March 31, 2019, 01:10:26 PM
Good luck finding one at that price without having to special order it. Rangers, Colorados, Tacomas, etc typically have some equipment and start in the high thirties and well into the forties at dealerships, where the better profit margins are.
https://jalopnik.com/the-2020-jeep-gladiator-costs-35-040-to-62-310-heres-1833680540
But also because that's what people want to buy. If everyone came in and special ordered base models, that's what they'd stock. :huh:
Quote from: dazzleman on March 31, 2019, 06:02:38 AM
I've been a stubborn sedan owner all these years. No trucks, no SUVs. I like a fast, nimble sedan/car. I don't want to drive my living room around with me, or have a big bed that I would fill with something once every 2 years. It's all about lifestyle and image. Some people have a use for trucks and SUVs, but I don't. And others just like the image of owning one, though I think that the original masculine image that SUVs used to project has migrated over to pickup trucks as more and more SUVs have become chick vehicles.
YUP!!!
Quote from: BimmerM3 on March 31, 2019, 04:01:53 PM
But also because that's what people want to buy. If everyone came in and special ordered base models, that's what they'd stock. :huh:
I'm gonna guess most buyers don't special order, so what is on the lot could very well influence buying patterns. Plus most people shop payments, the salesman/finance douche can push out the term and bring the better optioned model to or close to the same payment.
Quote from: BimmerM3 on March 31, 2019, 04:01:53 PM
But also because that's what people want to buy. If everyone came in and special ordered base models, that's what they'd stock. :huh:
Nah, it's all about the upsell. They'd put more effort into pushing the higher content models than stocking stripper models.
They'll stock a few strippers; that way they can run ads that say "$199/month with nothing down!."
Quote from: Lebowski on March 31, 2019, 04:54:31 PM
I'm gonna guess most buyers don't special order, so what is on the lot could very well influence buying patterns. Plus most people shop payments, the salesman/finance douche can push out the term and bring the better optioned model to or close to the same payment.
Quote from: Rockraven on March 31, 2019, 05:14:42 PM
Nah, it's all about the upsell. They'd put more effort into pushing the higher content models than stocking stripper models.
I mean, I'm sure it does influence some people. But I also think there just aren't very many people who really want a 4x2, 2 door truck as a personal vehicle.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on March 31, 2019, 05:49:55 PM
They'll stock a few strippers; that way they can run ads that say "$199/month with nothing down!."
They rarely do, because they don't need to. I think there's a Marketplace episode (consumer show up here) that featured exactly this; blanket dealership ads that promote a low price, but when someone tries to buy a vehicle at that price, nobody has it. It's legal because you can order one at that price, but the scheme is always to upsell one on the lot that's more expensive, and like Lebowski said, match the advertised monthly payment by lengthening the term.
Quote from: BimmerM3 on March 31, 2019, 05:57:41 PM
there just aren't very many people who really want a 4x2, 2 door truck as a personal vehicle.
If I were to buy a new truck, that's how I'd want it.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on March 31, 2019, 05:49:55 PM
They'll stock a few strippers; that way they can run ads that say "$199/month with nothing down!."
I completely misunderstood what you meant when I first read this. I couldn't figure out what strippers had to do with buying a truck.
Quote from: FoMoJo on March 31, 2019, 06:41:40 PM
I completely misunderstood what you meant when I first read this. I couldn't figure out what strippers had to do with buying a truck.
Brings the truck-buying customers in.
Not sure if they still have them, but Ford even used to have a pole on their tailgate.
Quote from: MX793 on April 01, 2019, 09:20:49 AM
Not sure if they still have them, but Ford even used to have a pole on their tailgate.
They still have them!
Quote from: MX793 on April 01, 2019, 09:20:49 AM
Not sure if they still have them, but Ford even used to have a pole on their tailgate.
:lol:
A footnote, but it seems that Ford is the preferred brand for those who want to switch.