Pickup truck buyers are fed up

Started by 12,000 RPM, March 29, 2019, 07:51:13 AM

12,000 RPM

I'm posting this here because I think the implications of this are huge. Big caveat though, gut check says a survey of ~1100 might not be representative of the millions of pickup truck owners out there.

https://go.cargurus.com/2019PickupTruckSurvey.html?7521_rm_id=167.26626933.34

Bigger question is whether or not this is a growing trend. Hopefully they follow up with this next year. But even a ~15% drop in pickup sales is bad news bears for the American "auto" industry.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Soup DeVille

Well, its been a growing sentiment that more and more truck owners aren't "real" truck owners.

By that I mean many of them never tow anything, and rarely haul anything dirty, oversized, or otherwise needing a pickup. Consequently, trucks are under pressure to be both a good car, and a good truck; and the people whonwant good cars are more and more unwilling to deal with the drawbacks of a truck and truck people are
more and more resentful of the extra cost associated with making their trucks more carlike.

Older trucks in good condition like square body Chevies and highboy Fords are pulling a premium now too, so there are folks who simply want good straight forward trucks.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

r0tor

2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

shp4man

Quote from: Soup DeVille on March 29, 2019, 07:59:26 AM
Well, its been a growing sentiment that more and more truck owners aren't "real" truck owners.

By that I mean many of them never tow anything, and rarely haul anything dirty, oversized, or otherwise needing a pickup. Consequently, trucks are under pressure to be both a good car, and a good truck; and the people whonwant good cars are more and more unwilling to deal with the drawbacks of a truck and truck people are
more and more resentful of the extra cost associated with making their trucks more carlike.

Older trucks in good condition like square body Chevies and highboy Fords are pulling a premium now too, so there are folks who simply want good straight forward trucks.

Square body Chevies are heating up pretty good. You can still find them cheap if you look around a bit.
You should take a trip south, find a rust free example. You'd have a project that you could tell yourself was an investment. ;)

Soup DeVille

I'd actually love a '78-'79 Ford, but its not in the cards right now.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

Gotta-Qik-C7

Quote from: Soup DeVille on March 29, 2019, 07:59:26 AM
Well, its been a growing sentiment that more and more truck owners aren't "real" truck owners.

By that I mean many of them never tow anything, and rarely haul anything dirty, oversized, or otherwise needing a pickup. Consequently, trucks are under pressure to be both a good car, and a good truck; and the people whonwant good cars are more and more unwilling to deal with the drawbacks of a truck and truck people are
more and more resentful of the extra cost associated with making their trucks more carlike.

Older trucks in good condition like square body Chevies and highboy Fords are pulling a premium now too, so there are folks who simply want good straight forward trucks.
:hesaid: Me and the guys just had this talk. A couple of them have full size trucks thenselves but they are shocked at how much new trucks cost. I told them it's because trucks are the new Luxury Sedans. I see 60K Denalis/F150/Rams all day but I can't tell you the last time is saw an 60K 5 Series or E Class........


Quote from: shp4man on March 29, 2019, 08:48:42 AM
Square body Chevies are heating up pretty good. You can still find them cheap if you look around a bit.
You should take a trip south, find a rust free example. You'd have a project that you could tell yourself was an investment. ;)
This came up also! My friend mentioned the two Square Bodies my pops had when we were kids back in the 80s (A white and green '79 and a black and silver '86) and I told him I wish I still had them! I keep my eye on them tho! If can catch a bargain I'm going to snatch one up!
2014 C7 Vert, 2002 Silverado, 2005 Road Glide

Lebowski

#6
I'm not sure what's new or meaningful here. 17% of truck owners are unlikely to buy another ... ok?  What was that figure 3, 5, 10 years ago?  What percent of non pickup owners are considering a pickup as their next vehicle?  There's always a portion of the mix that are both first time pickup owners and last time pickup owners.  People might switch brands if the price of their brand goes up $10k ... ok, no shit, and this assumes the other brands don't also go up in price?

Also what people say in surveys and what they actually do are not always the same.

FoMoJo

"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once." ~ Albert Einstein
"As the saying goes, when you mix science and politics, you get politics."

giant_mtb

Now that we have the new ColoCanyon out there, mid-sizers seem to be making a comeback. Most people don't need a full-size Silverado, but if they wanna stick with a GM and save $10k, well...

Will likely see lots of the new Rangers popping up as well over the next couple years. The mid-sizers of today are the full-sizers of 10 years ago.

giant_mtb

Though, I do live in Truck Country, so my anecdotal experience that trucks are going nowhere may be skewed.

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Lebowski on March 29, 2019, 08:59:39 AM
I'm not sure what's new or meaningful here. 17% of truck owners are unlikely to buy another ... ok?  What was that figure 3, 5, 10 years ago?  What percent of non pickup owners are considering a pickup as their next vehicle?  There's always a portion of the mix that are both first time pickup owners and last time pickup owners.  People might switch brands if the price of their brand goes up $10k ... ok, no shit, and this assumes the other brands don't also go up in price?

Also what people say in surveys and what they actually do are not always the same.
I think I acknowledged as much in the OP.

Quote from: giant_mtb on March 29, 2019, 09:24:06 AM
Though, I do live in Truck Country, so my anecdotal experience that trucks are going nowhere may be skewed.
If you are seeing midsizers making a comeback then they probably are. But "midsizers" of today are full sizers of the past. I don't know if people were towing much more than aluminum bicycle trailers with those old 2.3L Rangers but there does seem to be a void at the bottom. Wondering if people would be into something like a Transit pickup.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

CaminoRacer

Quote from: giant_mtb on March 29, 2019, 09:18:25 AM
Now that we have the new ColoCanyon out there, mid-sizers seem to be making a comeback. Most people don't need a full-size Silverado, but if they wanna stick with a GM and save $10k, well...

Will likely see lots of the new Rangers popping up as well over the next couple years. The mid-sizers of today are the full-sizers of 10 years ago.

Yeah the new Tacos and Colorados are still BIG.
2020 BMW 330i, 1969 El Camino, 2017 Bolt EV

CaminoRacer

I think my future garage might be:

- El Camino
- Motorcycle (or maybe not)
- Civic/Accord sedan
- Tacoma

Sedan for every day driving and Taco for camping and mountains. Although if I leave Utah the need for a Taco goes down a lot.
2020 BMW 330i, 1969 El Camino, 2017 Bolt EV

FoMoJo

Quote from: CaminoRacer on March 29, 2019, 10:47:11 AM
I think my future garage might be:

- El Camino
- Motorcycle (or maybe not)
- Civic/Accord sedan
- Tacoma

Sedan for every day driving and Taco for camping and mountains. Although if I leave Utah the need for a Taco goes down a lot.
Ditch the Taco and get a Cobra rep.
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once." ~ Albert Einstein
"As the saying goes, when you mix science and politics, you get politics."

Eye of the Tiger

2008 TUNDRA (Truck Ultra-wideband Never-say-die Daddy Rottweiler Awesome)

CaminoRacer

2020 BMW 330i, 1969 El Camino, 2017 Bolt EV

Speed_Racer

My brother was looking for a new/preowned pickup to replace his B3000 but there was nothing close to his price range. Even very base trim level 4x4s were high 20s low 30s. Resale is high too, so he's going with a pre-owned Outback instead.

CaminoRacer

Quote from: Speed_Racer on March 29, 2019, 12:03:49 PM
My brother was looking for a new/preowned pickup to replace his B3000 but there was nothing close to his price range. Even very base trim level 4x4s were high 20s low 30s. Resale is high too, so he's going with a pre-owned Outback instead.

Used 4x4 prices are ridiculous. Trucks with 200k miles going for $10k?
2020 BMW 330i, 1969 El Camino, 2017 Bolt EV

MX793

Needs more Jiggawatts

2016 Ford Mustang GTPP / 2011 Toyota Rav4 Base AWD / 2014 Kawasaki Ninja 1000 ABS
1992 Nissan 240SX Fastback / 2004 Mazda Mazda3s / 2011 Ford Mustang V6 Premium / 2007 Suzuki GSF1250SA Bandit / 2006 VW Jetta 2.5

BimmerM3

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 29, 2019, 10:41:59 AM
I think I acknowledged as much in the OP.

Then why the clickbait title?

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 29, 2019, 10:41:59 AM
If you are seeing midsizers making a comeback then they probably are. But "midsizers" of today are full sizers of the past. I don't know if people were towing much more than aluminum bicycle trailers with those old 2.3L Rangers but there does seem to be a void at the bottom. Wondering if people would be into something like a Transit pickup.

I don't think there's real demand for smaller trucks. Something smaller than the current midsizers would either have a tiny bed or tiny/no rear seats. An SUV with folding seats makes for a more flexible vehicle - cargo room when you need it, passenger room when you don't.

Maybe something like a transit pickup could work, but only because it would be cheap to develop off the existing platform.

shp4man

Modern pickups have so many items as standard equipment and the price reflects it. Trucks used to be more of a utility vehicle.
Example, A base F150 has:
ABS braking
Intermittent wipers
A/C
Power steering
Power brakes
Airbags
Automatic Transmission
Automatic headlights
Rear view camera

My old truck has none of those things.

BimmerM3

All the whining about price is also a bit overblown, IMO. A base Ranger costs $24k, which is equivalent to $16k from twenty years ago.

Speed_Racer

Quote from: BimmerM3 on March 29, 2019, 12:55:32 PM
All the whining about price is also a bit overblown, IMO. A base Ranger costs $24k, which is equivalent to $16k from twenty years ago.

Haven't median real wages been flat in that time though? I think that cars/trucks/goods now being a larger % of one's income is the bigger issue.

Lebowski

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 29, 2019, 10:41:59 AM

I think I acknowledged as much in the OP.



Your main caveat was re sample size and said the implications are "huge" and implied it somehow related to a 15% decline in sales. How?  If 100% of people thinking about not buying a truck next time don't and zero people currently not driving pickups buy one?

I don't find the results surprising or implying much change in buying patterns if any.

BimmerM3

Quote from: Speed_Racer on March 29, 2019, 01:35:06 PM
Haven't median real wages been flat in that time though? I think that cars/trucks/goods now being a larger % of one's income is the bigger issue.

"Real wages" account for inflation, so that shouldn't factor in at all if they're flat.

Maybe trucks have increased more in price than cars and SUVs have? Or maybe people's perceptions are just thrown off because they're looking at the crazy luxury or off-road trims instead of the base models.

Speed_Racer

It's also hard to gauge truck prices manufacturers list MSRP so high then toss a bunch of rebates at you depending on the season. I wonder if that plays into it too

Eye of the Tiger

Quote from: MX793 on March 29, 2019, 12:38:21 PM
The rent is too damn high

I am tired of working three jobs just to pay for my pickup truck rental.
2008 TUNDRA (Truck Ultra-wideband Never-say-die Daddy Rottweiler Awesome)

AutobahnSHO

At work just today guy was talking about getting a vasectomy cuz his twins are all he wants- he doesn't ever "have to consider buying a minivan".

TONS of guys in our country are wrapped around "image" and the truck does it for them.

Now I will say it is absolutely shocking the difference in vehicles here in DC burbs compared to upstate NY. Pickups were so super common up there and downright rare around here, comparatively speaking. People buy what they think they need- as well as what they can afford- as well as what everyone else buys.
Will

veeman

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on March 29, 2019, 08:37:40 PM
At work just today guy was talking about getting a vasectomy cuz his twins are all he wants- he doesn't ever "have to consider buying a minivan".

TONS of guys in our country are wrapped around "image" and the truck does it for them.

Now I will say it is absolutely shocking the difference in vehicles here in DC burbs compared to upstate NY. Pickups were so super common up there and downright rare around here, comparatively speaking. People buy what they think they need- as well as what they can afford- as well as what everyone else buys.

It's more difficult to own a full size pickup in a city environment.  Parking garages are tight and many of them will charge you more. Street parking is harder to find because you need more space. Instead people buy Wranglers. 

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: veeman on March 29, 2019, 09:00:18 PM
It's more difficult to own a full size pickup in a city environment.  Parking garages are tight and many of them will charge you more. Street parking is harder to find because you need more space. Instead people buy Wranglers. 

Totally correct. I see very few Jeeps around here too (at least compared to upstate NY).
Will