Tesla

Started by SJ_GTI, February 23, 2017, 07:11:02 AM

SJ_GTI

Saw this article posted on TCL, figured some non-TCL'ers might be interested.

http://www.autoblog.com/2017/02/22/tesla-earnings-model-3-production/

Key point IMHO:

Quote...The company also told investors that battery production has started at the new Gigafactory, and that Model 3 production is still on track for July with full-scale production starting in September. That means some owners should expect to see their cars by the end of the year.

Will be interesting to see if they can actually deliver on that. I don't think we have even see a production version of the car yet...? IIRC the models they showed last year were supposedly prototypes and the interior in particular was not finished.

Payman

It'll do ok on brand cachet alone, but no doubt the Chevy Bolt will eat into a lot of Model 3 sales.

MrH

They'll probably make 100 cars by the end of the year, but they have serious process and supply chain issues.  They're going to really, really struggle to scale it up to produce in decent numbers.

I've directly lived through the model S and model X launch. A lot of that was just brut force and head count thrown at the issue. It's totally different than how an established OEM produces.
2023 Ford Lightning Lariat ER
2019 Acura RDX SH-AWD
2023 BRZ Limited

Previous: '02 Mazda Protege5, '08 Mazda Miata, '05 Toyota Tacoma, '09 Honda Element, '13 Subaru BRZ, '14 Hyundai Genesis R-Spec 5.0, '15 Toyota 4Runner SR5, '18 Honda Accord EX-L 2.0t, '01 Honda S2000, '20 Subaru Outback XT, '23 Chevy Bolt EUV

r0tor

After the initial hoopla dies out, I would actually consider one of these to replace maybe the wife's car... assuming they are as good in real life as on paper
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

Payman

I'd go with a Bolt. Apparently a great car with a solid company behind it.

2o6


SJ_GTI

Quote from: Rockraven on February 23, 2017, 09:20:45 AM
I'd go with a Bolt. Apparently a great car with a solid company behind it.

Meh, I have a feeling the tesla will be more fun to drive (based on how much people like the Model S). If you are just looking for A to B transportation the Bolt certainly seems more practical though.

2o6

Tesla hasn't even showed an interior close to finalized, same with an exterior. They have like one prototype running around, and they've been hocking that fiberglass-over-wood-and-clay mockup at every trade show.


That interior was so bad.

r0tor

Quote from: Rockraven on February 23, 2017, 09:20:45 AM
I'd go with a Bolt. Apparently a great car with a solid company behind it.

The Bolt is a boring economy grade appliance
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

2o6

Quote from: r0tor on February 23, 2017, 09:56:49 AM
The Bolt is a boring economy grade appliance



.....like the tesla won't be??

SJ_GTI

Quote from: 2o6 on February 23, 2017, 10:10:39 AM


.....like the tesla won't be??

I mean, most Tesla Model S reviews seem to say it is pretty fun to drive. I think there is a reasonably good chance the Model 3 will actually be more fun to drive (even if it is a bit slower in a straight line).

I actually think the Bolt is a decent little car as well. I think it is was AWD it could be a set of sportier springs/shocks away from being pretty fun ride too.  The combination of the electric motor and having the weight at the bottom of the car gives electrics a competitive advantage vs IC engine cars in some respects.

r0tor

Quote from: 2o6 on February 23, 2017, 10:10:39 AM


.....like the tesla won't be??

Acceleration most definitely will not be economy grade.  One would suspect the same for the suspension.  The bolt looks like a typical economy box, the 3 more expensive looking.  Interior is yet to be seen, but the press drive cars looked OK.
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

GoCougs

Check out M/T's Bolt vs. Model S comparo. The Bolt is simply the better car - quality, engineering, and design (esp. interior, particularly the dash and infotainment).

The Model S and X are more toward the kit car end of the spectrum, and I suspect the Model 3 will be no different. The Bolt is a mainstream car built by an established mainstream automaker and it shows.

If the market pays attention, the Bolt might kill Tesla. Tesla was swinging for the fences in hoping that tens of thousands would actually buy and now here comes the Bolt, the much better car hitting the market sooner...


giant_mtb

Are the Model 3 and Bolt meant to compete with each other?  I thought Tesla was aiming to be the "luxury" brand of electric car.

Morris Minor

Tesla = Apple
The Rest = Android
Fair analogy?

Tesla's danger is being a market pioneer. Rivals come along later, learn from pioneers' mistakes, move the ball up the field, & leave the pioneer in the dust. (Think De Havilland Comet & Boeing 707)

There is a lot going on with battery technology, I watched an excellent 'Nova' about it on PBS. Lithium-Metal batteries seem promising: http://news.mit.edu/2016/lithium-metal-batteries-double-power-consumer-electronics-0817
⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

GoCougs

Quote from: giant_mtb on February 23, 2017, 11:47:22 AM
Are the Model 3 and Bolt meant to compete with each other?  I thought Tesla was aiming to be the "luxury" brand of electric car.

Base MSRPs are about the same (~$35k).

Char

Nothing personal to anyone here, but I can't find a reason to care about this car.

Sure DC motors are probably the future, but batteries and 4000lb 200mile poorly finished, unreliable cars aren't. Hopefully.
Quote from: 565 on December 26, 2012, 09:13:44 AM
... Nissan needs to use these shocks on the GT-R.  It would be like the Incredible Hulk wielding Thor's hammer.... unstoppable.

SJ_GTI

Quote from: GoCougs on February 23, 2017, 11:52:49 AM
Base MSRPs are the same (~$35k).

The bolt actually starts @ 37.5k. I think the Bolt maxes out at like ~44k (excl accessories).

Starting MSRP on the Model 3 will probably be similar, but I suspect it will max out in the 60's if not the 70's or 80's. IIRC Elon Musk tweeted that he expected the average transaction price to be in the mid 40's.

MrH

Quote from: Morris Minor on February 23, 2017, 11:50:43 AM
Tesla = Apple
The Rest = Android
Fair analogy?

Tesla's danger is being a market pioneer. Rivals come along later, learn from pioneers' mistakes, move the ball up the field, & leave the pioneer in the dust. (Think De Havilland Comet & Boeing 707)

There is a lot going on with battery technology, I watched an excellent 'Nova' about it on PBS. Lithium-Metal batteries seem promising: http://news.mit.edu/2016/lithium-metal-batteries-double-power-consumer-electronics-0817


No, not a fair analogy at all :lol:
2023 Ford Lightning Lariat ER
2019 Acura RDX SH-AWD
2023 BRZ Limited

Previous: '02 Mazda Protege5, '08 Mazda Miata, '05 Toyota Tacoma, '09 Honda Element, '13 Subaru BRZ, '14 Hyundai Genesis R-Spec 5.0, '15 Toyota 4Runner SR5, '18 Honda Accord EX-L 2.0t, '01 Honda S2000, '20 Subaru Outback XT, '23 Chevy Bolt EUV

SJ_GTI

You know, checking the Bolt out on Chevy's "Build It" site...it looks pretty good. A lot of tech in a small package. Shame it is FWD.

GoCougs

Quote from: Morris Minor on February 23, 2017, 11:50:43 AM
Tesla = Apple
The Rest = Android
Fair analogy?

Tesla's danger is being a market pioneer. Rivals come along later, learn from pioneers' mistakes, move the ball up the field, & leave the pioneer in the dust. (Think De Havilland Comet & Boeing 707)

There is a lot going on with battery technology, I watched an excellent 'Nova' about it on PBS. Lithium-Metal batteries seem promising: http://news.mit.edu/2016/lithium-metal-batteries-double-power-consumer-electronics-0817


Thing is Apple usually makes an excellent product - ground breaking, high quality, high margin and high value. Tesla got one of those right ;).

The auto industry is of razor thing margins, huge development cycles, fierce brand loyalty, major pain if there are product problems and immense regulatory intrusion. I don't see how Tesla will crack that code.




Morris Minor

Quote from: Char on February 23, 2017, 11:54:22 AM
Nothing personal to anyone here, but I can't find a reason to care about this car.

Sure DC motors are probably the future, but batteries and 4000lb 200mile poorly finished, unreliable cars aren't. Hopefully.
I think they sell because they are really cool. A lady at work bought one, made no economic or reliability sense, but people flocked out to the parking lot to take a look get rides. They are aspirational items.
⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤

Laconian

Around where I live, they've replaced a lot of the 5 and 7-series and a lot of the MB E/S-classes. MBs are still fashionable but seemingly among the type that cares more about fashion - expensive sunglasses, LV handbags, etc. The geeks love their Teslas.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

r0tor

Quote from: GoCougs on February 23, 2017, 11:44:26 AM
Check out M/T's Bolt vs. Model S comparo. The Bolt is simply the better car - quality, engineering, and design (esp. interior, particularly the dash and infotainment).

The Model S and X are more toward the kit car end of the spectrum, and I suspect the Model 3 will be no different. The Bolt is a mainstream car built by an established mainstream automaker and it shows.

If the market pays attention, the Bolt might kill Tesla. Tesla was swinging for the fences in hoping that tens of thousands would actually buy and now here comes the Bolt, the much better car hitting the market sooner...



The more more expensive and bigger and heavier and more luxurious car was faster, stopped quicker, handled better, and recharges much faster then the cheaper econobox car

... and your point is?
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

2o6

Quote from: SJ_GTI on February 23, 2017, 12:29:53 PM
You know, checking the Bolt out on Chevy's "Build It" site...it looks pretty good. A lot of tech in a small package. Shame it is FWD.

I mean there's a benefit to placing the motor and hardware where it is

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Morris Minor on February 23, 2017, 11:50:43 AM
Tesla = Apple
The Rest = Android
Fair analogy?
Naw...... Apple had plenty of OEM experience by the time it launched iOS, and iOS was the paradigm for the smartphone OS. Apple created a great concept and executed on it phenomenally, w/no problems with scale or profitability out of the gate. Tesla has had some good ideas but continues to stumble on execution and has replaced profits with dreams. I see the Model 3 launch being rife with problems. They need to slow down on the pizazz and master the basics.
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giant_mtb

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on February 23, 2017, 07:44:38 PM
Naw...... Apple had plenty of OEM experience by the time it launched iOS, and iOS was the paradigm for the smartphone OS. Apple created a great concept and executed on it phenomenally, w/no problems with scale or profitability out of the gate. Tesla has had some good ideas but continues to stumble on execution and has replaced profits with dreams. I see the Model 3 launch being rife with problems. They need to slow down on the pizazz and master the basics.

Seems like it's a bit of a cart ahead of the horse situation.  Musk has all this cash and a huge future vision so he builds it all up and then the actual process of making it all happen is slower than is realistic compared to his vision and infrastructure growth or at least slower than what investors or the public expect.

GoCougs

Quote from: r0tor on February 23, 2017, 01:12:06 PM
The more more expensive and bigger and heavier and more luxurious car was faster, stopped quicker, handled better, and recharges much faster then the cheaper econobox car

... and your point is?

The point as stated is despite costing only half as much, the Bolt has better quality, engineering and design. Sure the Model S has more power and what not but the Bolt is simply the better executed vehicle.



Raza

Quote from: Morris Minor on February 23, 2017, 11:50:43 AM
Tesla = Apple
The Rest = Android
Fair analogy?

Tesla's danger is being a market pioneer. Rivals come along later, learn from pioneers' mistakes, move the ball up the field, & leave the pioneer in the dust. (Think De Havilland Comet & Boeing 707)

There is a lot going on with battery technology, I watched an excellent 'Nova' about it on PBS. Lithium-Metal batteries seem promising: http://news.mit.edu/2016/lithium-metal-batteries-double-power-consumer-electronics-0817

Not really a fair analogy.  One, that assumes that Android has surpassed Apple, when they just keep coming out with buggy crap month after month.  Two, Tesla gave all the IP away, unlike Apple, which is all locked down.  Three, Apple actually makes money and Tesla hasn't turned a profit. 
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BimmerM3

Quote from: Raza  on February 23, 2017, 10:30:04 PM
One, that assumes that Android has surpassed Apple, when they just keep coming out with buggy crap month after month.

Lol wut