Have we reached the SUV tipping point?

Started by 12,000 RPM, March 28, 2018, 01:49:46 PM

12,000 RPM

I'm having trouble trying to explain what I'm thinking. Basically with all the new NYIAS releases, I've found I'm way more interested in the SUVs than the cars. Not from an actual ownership POV- in that context I will never relent; I actually care about driving dynamics and enjoyment. But from an industry watching POV it seems like SUVs are where the excitement is. Market share reflects that with the bulk of vehicles sold NOT being cars anymore, for better or worse.

Doesn't help that manufacturers seem to be mailing it in with cars vs actually trying with crossovers/SUVs/trucks. This isn't limited to the Hertz "free upgrade" Altimas either; in the luxury car space the M.O. seems to be "more tech", and in the performance car realm the M.O. seems to be "beat our last C&D headline figures at all costs (even the essence of the car)". Car design has also become a bit stale (see Audi/BMW) or flat out garish (Honda/Toyota/Lexus), while there are actually some legitimately good looking SUVs (dat Aviator :wub: )

Thoughts? Sentiments?
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giant_mtb

Is there any data out there about sedan sales vs SUV sales over the last few decades?  SUVs were hot in the 90s, struggled a bit in the mid 2000s (?) when gas prices shot up, and now we're in another SUV (well, CUV, really) frenzy. 

12,000 RPM

Decades, no but I do know regular cars are in the minority for the first time ever in market share.

CUVs have become pretty fuel efficient as well which means they probably won't get reamed by a gas price spike.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

giant_mtb

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 28, 2018, 02:16:51 PM
Decades, no but I do know regular cars are in the minority for the first time ever in market share.

CUVs have become pretty fuel efficient as well which means they probably won't get reamed by a gas price spike.

Oh yeah. An Equinox will get what, 25-28mpg on the highway all day long?  That's what some sedans were getting before the CUV craze.  Makes sense since they're essentially car based.

Lebowski

The CUV popularity isn't nearly as irrational as the late 90s / early 00s large SUV craze imo.  Footprints are small for the interior space, fuel efficiency is getting pretty good, overall value is decent etc. plus unlike those earlier SUVs the refinement is there.

CaminoRacer

Americans have always equated mass with status & luxury. That used to mean 20 foot long Cadillacs, but now it's SUV/CUVs.
2020 BMW 330i, 1969 El Camino, 2017 Bolt EV

Laconian

Quote from: giant_mtb on March 28, 2018, 02:32:01 PM
Oh yeah. An Equinox will get what, 25-28mpg on the highway all day long?  That's what some sedans were getting before the CUV craze.  Makes sense since they're essentially car based.

Meanwhile car efficiency has gone way up. Honda Accords with Earth Dreams turbo engines get 38mpg.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

giant_mtb

Quote from: Laconian on March 28, 2018, 03:47:53 PM
Meanwhile car efficiency has gone way up. Honda Accords with Earth Dreams turbo engines get 38mpg.

That's true.  And I think it's great and amazing that efficiency has taken a big hike upward.  Cars are sharper and faster than ever before, yet even more efficient.

Speed_Racer

They seem to have become the jack of all trades - ground clearance/seating height, relatively good fuel economy, carlike driving manners, big trunks, reasonable prices (compared to equivalent sedans)

12,000 RPM

I wish we would ditch MPGs and go for gallons per hundred miles. MPGs distort things a lot and make for weird psychological thresholds and incentives. I doubt Hyundai would have fooled around to show their cars went from 2.56 to 2.5 gallons per 100 miles vs 39 to 40. Metric system wins again.

But yea CUVs have pretty much closed the gap in mixed driving. IF there's a gap it's nowhere near big enough to justify the hassle of changing cars.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

CaminoRacer

Quote from: giant_mtb on March 28, 2018, 04:05:05 PM
That's true.  And I think it's great and amazing that efficiency has taken a big hike upward.  Cars are sharper and faster than ever before, yet even more efficient.

I think it's a real-world example of the Substitution Effect. The "price" decreases as fuel efficiency of all vehicles improves. So consumers have a choice to make - either enjoy the greater fuel efficiency of the sedans and benefit from the reduced fuel costs, allowing them to spend that money on other goods; or substitute in a CUV that gets the same MPG as their previous vehicle, but provides the benefits that Speed_Racer just mentioned.
2020 BMW 330i, 1969 El Camino, 2017 Bolt EV

2o6

I wonder if the prevelance of CUV's is a conspiracy for automakers to pass CAFE averages easier. These things are usually classified as light trucks and thus the CAFE, emissions, and other laws are different for them

12,000 RPM

Everything is still driven by market demand. Hybrids help CAFE too, but nobody wants them.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Submariner

Quote from: Laconian on March 28, 2018, 03:47:53 PM
Meanwhile car efficiency has gone way up. Honda Accords with Earth Dreams turbo engines get 38mpg.

And they have an Accord plug-in hybrid with a 45 mile battery-only range.  Not too bad if you ask me.
2010 G-550  //  2019 GLS-550

MX793

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 28, 2018, 04:11:27 PM
I wish we would ditch MPGs and go for gallons per hundred miles. MPGs distort things a lot and make for weird psychological thresholds and incentives. I doubt Hyundai would have fooled around to show their cars went from 2.56 to 2.5 gallons per 100 miles vs 39 to 40. Metric system wins again.

But yea CUVs have pretty much closed the gap in mixed driving. IF there's a gap it's nowhere near big enough to justify the hassle of changing cars.

No.  Just no.  Fuel per distance is not an efficiency measure.
Needs more Jiggawatts

2016 Ford Mustang GTPP / 2011 Toyota Rav4 Base AWD / 2014 Kawasaki Ninja 1000 ABS
1992 Nissan 240SX Fastback / 2004 Mazda Mazda3s / 2011 Ford Mustang V6 Premium / 2007 Suzuki GSF1250SA Bandit / 2006 VW Jetta 2.5

12,000 RPM

Quote from: MX793 on March 29, 2018, 04:35:54 AM
No.  Just no.  Fuel per distance is not an efficiency measure.
:confused: Why not?
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

MX793

#16
Efficiency is what you get out over what you put in.  A unit of gallons per mile is the inverse of that.

And despite your assumption to the contrary, Hyundai didn't just fudge the mpg numbers in the US market.  They also inflated the numbers in Canada, expressed in L/100km.  The numbers only improved by like .3.

Any numerical measure is going to result in psychological thresholds.  Maybe there won't be any when you first switch to a new unit system, because people are still acclimating, but once people have gotten used to it, new psychological thresholds will be established and automakers will set out to target those, sometimes fraudulently.
Needs more Jiggawatts

2016 Ford Mustang GTPP / 2011 Toyota Rav4 Base AWD / 2014 Kawasaki Ninja 1000 ABS
1992 Nissan 240SX Fastback / 2004 Mazda Mazda3s / 2011 Ford Mustang V6 Premium / 2007 Suzuki GSF1250SA Bandit / 2006 VW Jetta 2.5

Soup DeVille

They're both mathematic ratios. Neither lie just because people are stupid and don't think about it.
Maybe we need to start off small. I mean, they don't let you fuck the glumpers at Glumpees without a level 4 FuckPass, do they?

1975 Honda CB750, 1986 Rebel Rascal (sailing dinghy), 2015 Mini Cooper, 2020 Winnebago 31H (E450), 2021 Toyota 4Runner, 2022 Lincoln Aviator

shp4man

I think the SUV/CUV thing is just a fad, sort of a "The Smiths next door got one and they love it! We'll get one too" kind of a thing. I drive these vehicles at work all the time- there really isn't that much difference between them and a sedan other than a tiny little area to throw crap in behind the rear hatch.

Speed_Racer

Quote from: shp4man on March 29, 2018, 07:37:40 AM
I think the SUV/CUV thing is just a fad, sort of a "The Smiths next door got one and they love it! We'll get one too" kind of a thing. I drive these vehicles at work all the time- there really isn't that much difference between them and a sedan other than a tiny little area to throw crap in behind the rear hatch.

What do you think will become the next big thing and replace SUVs/CUVs?

CaminoRacer

Quote from: Speed_Racer on March 29, 2018, 09:11:30 AM
What do you think will become the next big thing and replace SUVs/CUVs?

Amazon delivery drones that will bring everything to us, so we can sit on the couch & not move all day
2020 BMW 330i, 1969 El Camino, 2017 Bolt EV

Gotta-Qik-C7

Quote from: Speed_Racer on March 29, 2018, 09:11:30 AM
What do you think will become the next big thing and replace SUVs/CUVs?
Not driving at all!
2014 C7 Vert, 2002 Silverado, 2005 Road Glide

Laconian

Quote from: MX793 on March 29, 2018, 05:58:06 AM
Efficiency is what you get out over what you put in.  A unit of gallons per mile is the inverse of that.

And despite your assumption to the contrary, Hyundai didn't just fudge the mpg numbers in the US market.  They also inflated the numbers in Canada, expressed in L/100km.  The numbers only improved by like .3.

Any numerical measure is going to result in psychological thresholds.  Maybe there won't be any when you first switch to a new unit system, because people are still acclimating, but once people have gotten used to it, new psychological thresholds will be established and automakers will set out to target those, sometimes fraudulently.

L/100km is better because fuel consumption is represented linearly. People intuitively know how to interpret linear relationships with large values, but grokking inverse relationships and small values needs more sophisticated math. Many people assume a marginal mile per gallon is worth the same, whether it be applied to pickup trucks or hybrids.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

Raza

Quote from: Speed_Racer on March 29, 2018, 09:11:30 AM
What do you think will become the next big thing and replace SUVs/CUVs?

The end of human driving.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
If you can read this, you're too close


2006 BMW Z4 3.0i
http://accelerationtherapy.squarespace.com/   @accelerationdoc
Quote from: the Teuton on October 05, 2009, 03:53:18 PM
It's impossible to argue with Raza. He wins. Period. End of discussion.

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Raza  on March 29, 2018, 02:29:11 PM
The end of human driving.
Such a drama queen

https://jalopnik.com/googles-waymo-ceo-wed-fight-a-ban-on-human-driving-1824121164

QuoteTesla CEO Elon Musk suggested back in 2015 that, eventually, cars are going to be so advanced that driving simply has to be outlawed.

"It's too dangerous," he said. "You can't have a person driving a two-ton death machine."

Krafcik doesn't agree.

"Good heavens, no," he told Jalopnik.
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Raza

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 29, 2018, 04:25:56 PM
Such a drama queen

https://jalopnik.com/googles-waymo-ceo-wed-fight-a-ban-on-human-driving-1824121164

He asked what's next. I answered. You praise to the high heavens the end of manually driven cars, but accepting it makes me a drama queen? Do you need an oxygen tank with the air so thin on such a high horse?
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
If you can read this, you're too close


2006 BMW Z4 3.0i
http://accelerationtherapy.squarespace.com/   @accelerationdoc
Quote from: the Teuton on October 05, 2009, 03:53:18 PM
It's impossible to argue with Raza. He wins. Period. End of discussion.

12,000 RPM

Quote from: Raza  on March 30, 2018, 08:01:11 AM
He asked what's next. I answered. You praise to the high heavens the end of manually driven cars, but accepting it makes me a drama queen? Do you need an oxygen tank with the air so thin on such a high horse?
I have never advocated, celebrated or promoted the death of manual driven vehicles :rolleyes:
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Raza

Quote from: 12,000 RPM on March 30, 2018, 08:22:37 AM
I have never advocated, celebrated or promoted the death of manual driven vehicles :rolleyes:

That's not even remotely true.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
If you can read this, you're too close


2006 BMW Z4 3.0i
http://accelerationtherapy.squarespace.com/   @accelerationdoc
Quote from: the Teuton on October 05, 2009, 03:53:18 PM
It's impossible to argue with Raza. He wins. Period. End of discussion.

r0tor

Quote from: Laconian on March 29, 2018, 11:09:49 AM
L/100km is better because fuel consumption is represented linearly. People intuitively know how to interpret linear relationships with large values, but grokking inverse relationships and small values needs more sophisticated math. Many people assume a marginal mile per gallon is worth the same, whether it be applied to pickup trucks or hybrids.

"Bigger is Better" is usually the preferred way to represent data ... That's why we have mpg
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed

r0tor

I see a huge bumper crop of new SUVs/CUVs  but if we are being truthful about them - not too many impressive ones. 

Most are just fwd based economy cars (some mid sized) on stilts with low development costs and actually it looks like there is a trend going to just using a ecoo car moniker with some "rugged off-road" name affixed to it.  Its logical that as the pendulum swings from cars to CUVs, it will slightly swing back and have more of these hybrid things.  That will probably be a trend from here out.

There is massive money being thrown at the market, but my observation seems to be most of it is just tech crap, electrification, and autonomous nonsense - which is undoubedly the market of the future.

If you want your SUV to have great levels of "Sport" and "Utility" the bar hasn't really moved much since Porsche came out with the Cayenne what 10+ years ago?  After all this time you either need to pick either sporty with poor AWD&room or utility with poor handling but great 4wd/room.  One would have thought if there was a serious effort in SUVs there would be better and cheaper choices.
2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee No Speed -- 2004 Mazda RX8 6 speed -- 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia All Speed