https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/economy/gm-layoffs-and-plant-shutdowns-suggest-us-economy-may-be-starting-to-slow--and-dent-trumps-claim-of-an-industrial-renaissance/2018/11/26/39533566-f1ba-11e8-80d0-f7e1948d55f4_story.html
Closing factories, laying off thousands, killing off their cars, pissing off Trump. Had to do it. The now is SUVs and Pickups and the future is electric and automation.
The future is also flying cars and floating cities on Mars. But I mean...yeah, let's just drop everything now and focus on that and tell people buzzwords!
They only discontinued a couple car lines.
Malibu, Sonic, Spark, et al are still being made.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7wg05M3VA5c
Excellent interview of why it was done.
I would point out that the last time GM focused on trucks and SUVs it lead to their downfall. I guess one difference to today is that the difference in fuel consumption is not that great, but it is still there.
Side note, does anyone else feel that this big push that "everyone is buying EV's and Crossovers" is wholly fake? Yes, car sales are down and crossover sales are up, but to say that no one has ever liked cars and will ever like cars again seems like it's coming from thin air.
Quote from: Galaxy on November 28, 2018, 11:27:33 AM
I would point out that the last time GM focused on trucks and SUVs it lead to their downfall. I guess one difference to today is that the difference in fuel consumption is not that great, but it is still there.
Also GM's car line was ass.
GM's current car line is competitive.
Quote from: 2o6 on November 28, 2018, 11:34:52 AM
Side note, does anyone else feel that this big push that "everyone is buying EV's and Crossovers" is wholly fake? Yes, car sales are down and crossover sales are up, but to say that no one has ever liked cars and will ever like cars again seems like it's coming from thin air.
Dunno about nobody ever liking cars before or in the future or EVs but light trucks are def killing cars in sales
(https://farm1.staticflickr.com/828/40061633570_e2fd3e6e4f_b.jpg)
It's hard to say what caused it... but light trucks are definitely more practical and easier to live with, with very little compromise vs the cars they are generally cross shopped with (i.e. not the cars they are based on)
A lot of sedans killed themselves with bad packaging too. Taurus is huge but not much roomier if at all than a Fusion. Unless you regularly seat 5 a Corolla is not much less roomy than a Camry. A lot of brands just have too many damn sedans
Are CUVs included in light trucks? I see they include minivans and SUVs, but are they considering CUVs to be SUVs?
"Light truck" is also a liberal term. The outback and old PT Cruiser are also "light trucks".
I just think the "no one wants cars" hyperbole is the too much avocado toast nonsense of the car world.
Quote from: giant_mtb on November 28, 2018, 12:01:39 PM
Are CUVs included in light trucks? I see they include minivans and SUVs, but are they considering CUVs to be SUVs?
I think so
Quote from: 2o6 on November 28, 2018, 12:03:43 PM
"Light truck" is also a liberal term. The outback and old PT Cruiser are also "light trucks".
I just think the "no one wants cars" hyperbole is the too much avocado toast nonsense of the car world.
I mean, there are people who want cars. But we are dwindling in numbers.
Quote from: veeman on November 28, 2018, 10:43:28 AM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/economy/gm-layoffs-and-plant-shutdowns-suggest-us-economy-may-be-starting-to-slow--and-dent-trumps-claim-of-an-industrial-renaissance/2018/11/26/39533566-f1ba-11e8-80d0-f7e1948d55f4_story.html
Closing factories, laying off thousands, killing off their cars, pissing off Trump. Had to do it. The now is SUVs and Pickups and the future is electric and automation.
Problem is we are in unprecedented boom times, and yet, the vast majority of Americans can't afford either EVs or autonomous vehicles (and even then they don't work) and automakers can't make money producing them. This coming downturn will likely destroy any such notion of either, with the future being ever more efficient ICE vehicles that more closely match both affordability and need.
Quote from: GoCougs on November 28, 2018, 12:40:27 PM
Problem is we are in unprecedented boom times, and yet, the vast majority of Americans can't afford either EVs or autonomous vehicles (and even then they don't work) and automakers can't make money producing them. This coming downturn will likely destroy any such notion of either, with the future being ever more efficient ICE vehicles that more closely match both affordability and need.
I have to agree.
Isettas for all!
Quote from: 2o6 on November 28, 2018, 10:51:45 AM
They only discontinued a couple car lines.
Malibu, Sonic, Spark, et al are still being made.
The Malibu is total crap, and the Spark is too small. Those two should have been the first to go.
Quote from: Eye of the Tiger on November 28, 2018, 01:05:50 PM
The Malibu is total crap, and the Spark is too small. Those two should have been the first to go.
I like the Malibu. The 1.5T is great
Yea I have not heard anything bad about the Malibu.
Quote from: 2o6 on November 28, 2018, 01:11:41 PM
I like the Malibu. The 1.5T is great
It would be great in the Spark.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on November 28, 2018, 01:13:50 PM
Yea I have not heard anything bad about the Malibu.
I just said it was crap.
The Cruze is the biggest shock.
Quote from: Rockraven on November 28, 2018, 02:09:47 PM
The Cruze is the biggest shock.
They only sold a jizzillion, despite being outdated and unreliable.
Quote from: Rockraven on November 28, 2018, 02:09:47 PM
The Cruze is the biggest shock.
Did GM *actually* cancel it?
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on November 28, 2018, 11:49:18 AM
Dunno about nobody ever liking cars before or in the future or EVs but light trucks are def killing cars in sales
(https://farm1.staticflickr.com/828/40061633570_e2fd3e6e4f_b.jpg)
It's hard to say what caused it... but light trucks are definitely more practical and easier to live with, with very little compromise vs the cars they are generally cross shopped with (i.e. not the cars they are based on)
A lot of sedans killed themselves with bad packaging too. Taurus is huge but not much roomier if at all than a Fusion. Unless you regularly seat 5 a Corolla is not much less roomy than a Camry. A lot of brands just have too many damn sedans
I'd like to see a graph of advertising dollars spent for each... My guess is the curves would look about the same.
I'm not convinced the will of the people moved on from cars so quickly - more likely impressive amounts of marketing dollars spent by manufacturers to brainwash people into higher profit vehicles
Quote from: 2o6 on November 28, 2018, 11:34:52 AM
Side note, does anyone else feel that this big push that "everyone is buying EV's and Crossovers" is wholly fake? Yes, car sales are down and crossover sales are up, but to say that no one has ever liked cars and will ever like cars again seems like it's coming from thin air.
CUVs/Crossovers make sense to a lot of people simply because they are easier to live with. Not much different from cars as far as driving but simply more comfortable to get into and out of and handier to carry stuff in.
But watch gas prices spoke and people go nuts trying to buy up little cars.
Honestly, I think the minivan killed the car. Men have always had an affinity toward trucks and SUVs and they were willing to deal with them being rough around the edges. Women typically preferred cars. When women with children started driving minivans they enjoyed the car-like ride while having more room and a higher seating position. As their children moved on, a lot of these women chose to move into midsize SUVs that offered them what they enjoyed about the minivan while being a little more trendy and palatable to their significant others.
My own wife has suggested that she may want an SUV when we no longer need our minivan because she enjoys the higher seating position.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on November 28, 2018, 04:41:54 PM
But watch gas prices spoke and people go nuts trying to buy up little cars.
CUVs with small displacement turbo engines get excellent mileage.
Quote from: RomanChariot on November 28, 2018, 04:50:35 PM
Honestly, I think the minivan killed the car. Men have always had an affinity toward trucks and SUVs and they were willing to deal with them being rough around the edges. Women typically preferred cars. When women with children started driving minivans they enjoyed the car-like ride while having more room and a higher seating position. As their children moved on, a lot of these women chose to move into midsize SUVs that offered them what they enjoyed about the minivan while being a little more trendy and palatable to their significant others.
My own wife has suggested that she may want an SUV when we no longer need our minivan because she enjoys the higher seating position.
IIRC, seating position was the primary reason my mom switched to an SUV back in the 90s... and her car before that was a Dodge Caravan. So you might be on to something there lol.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on November 28, 2018, 04:41:54 PM
But watch gas prices spoke and people go nuts trying to buy up little cars.
Quote from: FoMoJo on November 28, 2018, 04:52:33 PM
CUVs with small displacement turbo engines get excellent mileage.
I think purchase price could play as much or more of a role as gas prices. Just as a quick example, Imprezas and Legacys are both $3-4k less than their CUV counterparts, which is not an insignificant percentage of the overall purchase, and not all Outback drivers really need the extra clearance. The Fiesta is nearly $6k less than the Fiesta-based Ecosport.
(To be fair, I didn't compare non-CUV-related options to see if that made up some of the difference on any of the cars above.)
Quote from: r0tor on November 28, 2018, 02:49:24 PM
I'd like to see a graph of advertising dollars spent for each... My guess is the curves would look about the same.
I'm not convinced the will of the people moved on from cars so quickly - more likely impressive amounts of marketing dollars spent by manufacturers to brainwash people into higher profit vehicles
Did they brainwash you into your JGC?
Lot of Giulia commercials too. Were you brainwashed into that as well?
Really no legit reasons anyone might want a crossover over a sedan?
Quote from: RomanChariot on November 28, 2018, 04:50:35 PM
Honestly, I think the minivan killed the car. Men have always had an affinity toward trucks and SUVs and they were willing to deal with them being rough around the edges. Women typically preferred cars. When women with children started driving minivans they enjoyed the car-like ride while having more room and a higher seating position. As their children moved on, a lot of these women chose to move into midsize SUVs that offered them what they enjoyed about the minivan while being a little more trendy and palatable to their significant others.
My own wife has suggested that she may want an SUV when we no longer need our minivan because she enjoys the higher seating position.
Could be. I have suggested to wife replacing minivan with CR-V.
For some crazy reason when I drive Impreza my lower back starts hurting again. (herniated disc was diagnosis late 2017.) I never liked the seating position in that car though, it's like the front of the seat cushion is really high pushing you way back into the bottom back of the seat cushion.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on November 28, 2018, 06:39:32 PM
Did they brainwash you into your JGC?
Lot of Giulia commercials too. Were you brainwashed into that as well?
Really no legit reasons anyone might want a crossover over a sedan?
Either this country is spending a trillion dollars a year on advertising because it works... or they just need an excuse to spend money
Is it really so hard to imagine a world where automakers decided to start advertising not what was selling, but what makes them the most money... and consumers flocking to the vehicles they are being continually exposed to?
Quote from: r0tor on November 28, 2018, 07:22:29 PM
Either this country is spending a trillion dollars a year on advertising because it works... or they just need an excuse to spend money
Is it really so hard to imagine a world where automakers decided to start advertising not what was selling, but what makes them the most money... and consumers flocking to the vehicles they are being continually exposed to?
Light trucks are selling though; did you misread the chart?
Plus there are plenty of examples of things that were marketed that didn't sell. Remember all the cringey "Real People" GM ads? The even cringier Cadillac ATS ads talking about their "Brembo brakes"? Those ads were ubiquitous and yet all those cars still tanked in sales.......
So maybe..........................
Just maybe.............................
People are buying light trucks over cars...........................
Because they prefer light trucks over cars? :huh:
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on November 28, 2018, 04:41:54 PM
But watch gas prices spoke and people go nuts trying to buy up little cars.
If this is really happening, then I should sell Fiesta right quick.
"The death of the car" looks to be an entirely American thing. FCA started it with the 200 and Dart almost two years ago, Ford followed suit earlier this year, and now GM is right in line. But, until I see the Japanese and Koreans do the same, I think this is all premature nonsense. Toyota has invested a TON of money into the new Camry/Corolla bringing them way up from the clutches of mediocrity, Nissan actually decided to put engineering dollars into the Altima for the first time in like 10 years, and Honda's Civic/Accord combo is world class. A lot of these cars are being manufactured in the US too. There has to be some random legacy cost being embedded into the American production to make the margins on cars just not work but on SUVs be acceptable.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on November 29, 2018, 05:03:18 AM
Light trucks are selling though; did you misread the chart?
Plus there are plenty of examples of things that were marketed that didn't sell. Remember all the cringey "Real People" GM ads? The even cringier Cadillac ATS ads talking about their "Brembo brakes"? Those ads were ubiquitous and yet all those cars still tanked in sales.......
So maybe..........................
Just maybe.............................
People are buying light trucks over cars...........................
Because they prefer light trucks over cars? :huh:
It's not like we don't have history to rely on either. Remember the 90s SUV boom?
Quote from: Xer0 on November 29, 2018, 08:39:38 AM
"The death of the car" looks to be an entirely American thing. FCA started it with the 200 and Dart almost two years ago, Ford followed suit earlier this year, and now GM is right in line. But, until I see the Japanese and Koreans do the same, I think this is all premature nonsense. Toyota has invested a TON of money into the new Camry/Corolla bringing them way up from the clutches of mediocrity, Nissan actually decided to put engineering dollars into the Altima for the first time in like 10 years, and Honda's Civic/Accord combo is world class. A lot of these cars are being manufactured in the US too. There has to be some random legacy cost being embedded into the American production to make the margins on cars just not work but on SUVs be acceptable.
Toyota & Honda are just the best in the world at this game. And the big three aren't as lean as the class leaders. They can absorb this inefficiency on big margin trucks, but can't on mainstream sedans. :huh:
Toyota/Honda only make like low-mid single digit margins on cars, and are barely above breakeven to low single digits for small cars. If Toyota makes a 3% margin on something you can bet it's tough to do profitably. The D3 aren't as efficient as Toyota and never will be.
Quote from: MrH on November 29, 2018, 08:49:08 AM
Toyota & Honda are just the best in the world at this game. And the big three aren't as lean as the class leaders. They can absorb this inefficiency on big margin trucks, but can't on mainstream sedans. :huh:
That's kinda my point; its not so much about the death of passenger car as it just another reminder that the American manufacturers are just not there yet.
Quote from: Xer0 on November 29, 2018, 08:59:06 AM
That's kinda my point; its not so much about the death of passenger car as it just another reminder that the American manufacturers are just not there yet.
Toyota is a really really good company. If they barely make money in a segment a mediocre company doesn't stand a chance.
Competition with Korean cars has to be factored in. Actual production costs of a Hyundai or a Kia is probably lower.
GM didn't kill all their cars, just a few though.
Quote from: Xer0 on November 29, 2018, 08:59:06 AM
That's kinda my point; its not so much about the death of passenger car as it just another reminder that the American manufacturers are just not there yet. suck.
FTFY
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on November 29, 2018, 11:01:11 AM
FTFY
Have you driven a new Impala? A LaCrosse? A Malibu? A Cruz? Any of them?
Quote from: giant_mtb on November 29, 2018, 11:12:37 AM
Have you driven a new Impala? A LaCrosse? A Malibu? A Cruz? Any of them?
Seriously. The American manufacturers make some world class products right now, but that is completely separate from the point that they can't do it profitably.
Quote from: Lebowski on November 29, 2018, 08:58:34 AM
Toyota/Honda only make like low-mid single digit margins on cars, and are barely above breakeven to low single digits for small cars. If Toyota makes a 3% margin on something you can bet it's tough to do profitably. The D3 aren't as efficient as Toyota and never will be.
I actually did some quick Googling on this cause I was curious. Numbers are company wide so there's no distinction between classes, but GM and Honda hover at 7%, Toyota is almost at 8%, and Ford is a laggard at something like 4.5%. Ferrari is almost at 20% lol. Its MSN though so not sure where they are getting their data https://www.msn.com/en-in/autos/photos/the-20-most-profitable-car-manufacturers/ss-AAq36pf#image=14
Where are you finding more detailed breakdown on the small cars? I'm be curious to see what that looks like.
Quote from: giant_mtb on November 29, 2018, 11:12:37 AM
Have you driven a new Impala? A LaCrosse? A Malibu? A Cruz? Any of them?
I think they're talking about efficiencies on the engineering and manufacturing side, not how good the vehicles themselves are.
Suzuki's profit margin is nearly 12% and they only make small cars.
Quote from: 2o6 on November 29, 2018, 11:29:33 AM
Suzuki's profit margin is nearly 12% and they only make small cars.
The margin figures I was referring to may have been US only, most of Suzuki's op profit is from Asia and Japan segments, so not really a read through to the US sedan market.
Quote from: Xer0 on November 29, 2018, 11:15:00 AM
Seriously. The American manufacturers make some world class products right now, but that is completely separate from the point that they can't do it profitably.
I actually did some quick Googling on this cause I was curious. Numbers are company wide so there's no distinction between classes, but GM and Honda hover at 7%, Toyota is almost at 8%, and Ford is a laggard at something like 4.5%. Ferrari is almost at 20% lol. Its MSN though so not sure where they are getting their data https://www.msn.com/en-in/autos/photos/the-20-most-profitable-car-manufacturers/ss-AAq36pf#image=14
Where are you finding more detailed breakdown on the small cars? I'm be curious to see what that looks like.
They don't report profitability by product or market segment (small, mid, suv etc) but sell side analysts will sometimes try and back it out.
Just broadly speaking, if total Toyota is 8% and just assume SUV's/trucks are say low dd - teens margins, that would imply cars are somewhere in low-mid single digits. that's over simplified of course and not looking at regional segments, as I said above the numbers I referred to earlier were probably just US iirc.
Quote from: Xer0 on November 29, 2018, 11:15:00 AM
Seriously. The American manufacturers make some world class products right now, but that is completely separate from the point that they can't do it profitably.
They've built up so much ill will with the crap they foisted on Americans for ~50 years that it's gonna take selling world class cars at a loss for that long to get back to zero. Probably easier to just get out of the car business period and either wait for people to forget, or continue to ride the light truck wave.
Spiking gas prices don't matter either as people were rushing back into trucks after the recession when gas was $4/gal, and everything is way more fuel efficient these days.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on November 29, 2018, 12:28:33 PM
They've built up so much ill will with the crap they foisted on Americans for ~50 years that it's gonna take selling world class cars at a loss for that long to get back to zero. Probably easier to just get out of the car business period and either wait for people to forget, or continue to ride the light truck wave.
Spiking gas prices don't matter either as people were rushing back into trucks after the recession when gas was $4/gal, and everything is way more fuel efficient these days.
They only built crap for 30 years, 70s through 90s. Other than Chrysler, North American vehicles have been on par with the rest of the world, on a comparative level.
The difference is that a generation and a half or two have been inured in import vehicles'
Quote from: FoMoJo on November 29, 2018, 12:55:34 PM
They only built crap for 30 years, 70s through 90s. Other than Chrysler, North American vehicles have been on par with the rest of the world, on a comparative level.
The difference is that a generation and a half or two have been inured in import vehicles'
I'd say they were building crap right up until the bailout. Obviously not across the board, but def mostly in the mainstream space. In 08 they were still selling the Cobalt for example.
Build and design quality is about even across all brands these days, with a few exceptions.
Eh, even after the recently improved products their still not as nice as the imports imo. I'd take an accord over any domestic mainstream sedan I think.
Quote from: Lebowski on November 29, 2018, 01:39:53 PM
Eh, even after the recently improved products their still not as nice as the imports imo. I'd take an accord over any domestic mainstream sedan I think.
Hondas have their issues. Trust me on this one.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on November 29, 2018, 12:57:59 PM
I'd say they were building crap right up until the bailout. Obviously not across the board, but def mostly in the mainstream space. In 08 they were still selling the Cobalt for example.
Yes, there were a few holdovers. GM, especially, was far too concerned about their bottom line and let product suffer. They were in the process of turning it around in the late 90s. Too little, too late, so it seemed.
I think many problems and recalls with late model vehicles is partially due to the way cars are designed. Unfortunately, computers aren't programmed to model some fairly significant real world factors. Thus, the onslaught of recalls we see these days.
This goes for all the manufacturers. Do they all use the same software? Don't know.
Quote from: Lebowski on November 29, 2018, 01:39:53 PM
Eh, even after the recently improved products their still not as nice as the imports imo. I'd take an accord over any domestic mainstream sedan I think.
I would, too, but the domestics are still quite competent.
Quote from: shp4man on November 29, 2018, 01:47:04 PM
I think many problems and recalls with late model vehicles is partially due to the way cars are designed. Unfortunately, computers aren't programmed to model some fairly significant real world factors. Thus, the onslaught of recalls we see these days.
This goes for all the manufacturers. Do they all use the same software? Don't know.
No. Many of them are proprietary.
If you're not a domestic fanboy, and are deciding on a fuel efficient good value mainsteamer sedan, it's hard to choose a GM/Ford/FCA over a Japanese or Korean car without a bunch of cash on the hood or 0% financing incentive. Toyota and Honda tend to be more reliable over the long haul and have been for decades. That makes their value when it comes time to sell or trade in your car much higher and also consequently they can be leased significantly cheaper. A dealer is going to put an older GM or Ford with high mileage straight to auction. They can sell for a hefty profit an older Camcord with high mileage because they got a long track record of exemplary build quality and will sell. The Koreans have had for decades that long warranty ace in their pocket that GM and Ford can't match.
It's also hard to be a domestic fanboy when some of GM/Ford is built outside the U.S. and foreign makes build a lot in the U.S.
SUVs don't seem to be as much of a straight value purchase. No one buys an overpriced Tahoe because it's a good value. And GM and Ford have invested a lot in their SUVs.
I'm a Ford fanboy, but a 60s Ford fanboy; mainly due to their investment and success in all forms of racing.
However, the '01 Escape that I daily drove for 15 years with nothing but maintenance and a couple of wear parts, was a good indication to me that build quality matches anything the imports do; without the sludging, spaghetti ECM code and crappy transmissions that the imports have all experienced.
Far too much is marketing perception; including residual values.
GM has realized that unless your sedan is of the very best quality, at furthest right it's possible to get on the excellence bell curve, you should not bother competing in what is now a specialist segment. Churning out subpar fodder for rental fleets is not the stuff of success.
I'd expect that most modern cars will last 10 years and 100k-150k miles with minimal issues, but I'd still bet on more Toyotas and Hondas to live to 200k+ than domestics. Maybe I'm wrong and that's all perception though.
Quote from: FoMoJo on November 30, 2018, 10:12:03 AM
I'm a Ford fanboy, but a 60s Ford fanboy; mainly due to their investment and success in all forms of racing.
However, the '01 Escape that I daily drove for 15 years with nothing but maintenance and a couple of wear parts, was a good indication to me that build quality matches anything the imports do; without the sludging, spaghetti ECM code and crappy transmissions that the imports have all experienced.
Far too much is marketing perception; including residual values.
Those first-gen Escapes proved to be surprisingly robust. Can definitely tell they're a bit dated when I climb into one, but that's the case for any 10+ year old car. They keep on truckin.
I see as many rustbucket exhibits as I do clean ones. Ford hit the nail on the head with it, IMO.
Quote from: giant_mtb on November 30, 2018, 01:24:30 PM
Those first-gen Escapes proved to be surprisingly robust. Can definitely tell they're a bit dated when I climb into one, but that's the case for any 10+ year old car. They keep on truckin.
I see as many rustbucket exhibits as I do clean ones. Ford hit the nail on the head with it, IMO.
Unless it's a 2.3L, which will have the oil pump fail with no warning.
Quote from: FoMoJo on November 30, 2018, 10:12:03 AM
I'm a Ford fanboy, but a 60s Ford fanboy; mainly due to their investment and success in all forms of racing.
However, the '01 Escape that I daily drove for 15 years with nothing but maintenance and a couple of wear parts, was a good indication to me that build quality matches anything the imports do; without the sludging, spaghetti ECM code and crappy transmissions that the imports have all experienced.
Far too much is marketing perception; including residual values.
The statistics say otherwise.
Quote from: 2o6 on November 30, 2018, 02:08:39 PM
Unless it's a 2.3L, which will have the oil pump fail with no warning.
True. Pretty much all that I see are sixers.
Quote from: giant_mtb on November 30, 2018, 01:24:30 PM
Those first-gen Escapes proved to be surprisingly robust. Can definitely tell they're a bit dated when I climb into one, but that's the case for any 10+ year old car. They keep on truckin.
I see as many rustbucket exhibits as I do clean ones. Ford hit the nail on the head with it, IMO.
I made sure it was sprayed with Krown each year. No rust. Really sorry to give it up. The 3.0 Duratec V6 was/is one of the premier engines of the time.
Quote from: FoMoJo on November 30, 2018, 02:20:29 PM
I made sure it was sprayed with Krown each year. No rust. Really sorry to give it up. The 3.0 Duratec V6 was/is one of the premier engines of the time.
What a waste of perfectly ok Canadian whiskey.
Quote from: MrH on November 30, 2018, 02:14:06 PM
The statistics say otherwise.
What statistics, Consumers Report?
Quote from: Eye of the Tiger on November 30, 2018, 02:26:53 PM
What a waste of perfectly ok Canadian whiskey.
Different K/Crown. You wouldn't like to drink Krown.
Quote from: MrH on November 30, 2018, 02:14:06 PM
The statistics say otherwise.
A number of good things can be said about domestic product - that it is as robust and as reliable as Japanese product (esp. Toyota and Honda) isn't one of them however.
Quote from: FoMoJo on November 30, 2018, 02:31:48 PM
Different K/Crown. You wouldn't like to drink Krown.
I used to spray Amsoil Metal Protector all over exposed metal parts.
My dad just got rid if his first gen Escape due to subframe rust, and he took pretty good care of it.
Quote from: GoCougs on November 30, 2018, 02:40:46 PM
A number of good things can be said about domestic product - that it is as robust and as reliable as Japanese product (esp. Toyota and Honda) isn't one of them however.
Each of them, Toyota and Honda, have had their major problems but, especially Toyota, tend to blame their customers. They've, actually, gotten pretty good at it but alas, an older article, but fitting ...
Toyota Brings Perfection To Corporate Meltdown (https://www.huffingtonpost.com/gerald-sindell/toyota-brings-perfection_b_459165.html).
Toyota groupies are like Trump supporters, blind and deaf to reality. ;)
p.s. Don't forget about Honda's transmission explosions when they tried to add a little more power to their V6s.
Quote from: Eye of the Tiger on November 30, 2018, 02:47:14 PM
I used to spray Amsoil Metal Protector all over exposed metal parts.
My dad just got rid if his first gen Escape due to subframe rust, and he took pretty good care of it.
Got to get it into all the creases, inside and out.
Quote from: FoMoJo on November 30, 2018, 02:53:40 PM
Got to get it into all the creases, inside and out.
Correction, I suppose me dad's Escape was considered second generation - 2008. I just consider that generation a facelift. Ten years isn't great, but not awful cobsidering he drove it all winter in Maine.
Quote from: Eye of the Tiger on November 30, 2018, 02:57:33 PM
Correction, I suppose me dad's Escape was considered second generation - 2008. I just consider that generation a facelift. Ten years isn't great, but not awful cobsidering he drove it all winter in Maine.
My wfie had a 2009, same face lift, but with 2.5 Mazda engine and 6 spd automatic. Our daughter has it now with about 230,000 kilometers. Crazy, but absolutely nothings gone wrong with it yet. Brakes were the most expensive maintenance so far and they were done at 150 k. Scary, I know, but it's still on the original Michelin tires, though they've been swapped with Hankook snow tires each winter. They're original as well. I may have to buy our daughter a new set of summer tires next year; if she's too cheap to get them on her own.
My 10yr/168k miles at purchase Odyssey has been infinitely better than the Plymouth and Dodge minivans I bought with 100k miles on them. Knock on wood, we're at 230k now.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on November 30, 2018, 03:44:34 PM
My 10yr/168k miles at purchase Odyssey has been infinitely better than the Plymouth and Dodge minivans I bought with 100k miles on them. Knock on wood, we're at 230k now.
Well, there you go...Plymouth and Dodge. Wouldn't touch them with a 10 foot pole.
Quote from: 2o6 on November 30, 2018, 02:08:39 PM
Unless it's a 2.3L, which will have the oil pump fail with no warning.
166k and still chugging along fine.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on November 30, 2018, 04:14:07 PM
166k and still chugging along fine.
You're the exception, not the norm.
Quote from: Morris Minor on November 30, 2018, 11:55:08 AM
GM has realized that unless your sedan is of the very best quality, at furthest right it's possible to get on the excellence bell curve, you should not bother competing in what is now a specialist segment. Churning out subpar fodder for rental fleets is not the stuff of success.
I don't think GM's stuff is subpar. Domestics kind of get a bad rap. Wifey's MKX is 8 years old... we've had it for 2 years with absolutely no problems. I know it's just 1 data point but with my luck something should have gone wrong.
Like I said domestics are paying the price for churning out decades of crap. Even if they make cars that are decent, they have to offer a huge "our stuff is good now but we know you don't believe us" discounts. That's just not sustainable in shrinking segments with razor thin margins during the best of times.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on November 30, 2018, 03:44:34 PM
My 10yr/168k miles at purchase Odyssey has been infinitely better than the Plymouth and Dodge minivans I bought with 100k miles on them. Knock on wood, we're at 230k now.
My son still has the Pilot I bought in 2002: 184,000 miles. He's replaced the transmission, but it's served him well. He's right on the edge of the decision whether to fix the a/c or replace the car. I was a bit worried about the shocks & suspension bushings but he doesn't want to spend the money on that.
(I think the first transmission would still be in there if he hadn't towed a ridiculously overweight trailer from Boston to San Diego via Atlanta)
Fix the a/c and it will be good another 100k miles...
I've never worried about suspension on all my cars :mask:
Quote from: FoMoJo on November 30, 2018, 03:05:33 PM
My wfie had a 2009, same face lift, but with 2.5 Mazda engine and 6 spd automatic. Our daughter has it now with about 230,000 kilometers. Crazy, but absolutely nothings gone wrong with it yet. Brakes were the most expensive maintenance so far and they were done at 150 k. Scary, I know, but it's still on the original Michelin tires, though they've been swapped with Hankook snow tires each winter. They're original as well. I may have to buy our daughter a new set of summer tires next year; if she's too cheap to get them on her own.
I am not expert... but I don't think you really want 10 year old tires.. regardless of wear. I thought rubber started to rot or something around 5 years.
Quote from: TBR on December 01, 2018, 09:17:53 AM
I am not expert... but I don't think you really want 10 year old tires.. regardless of wear. I thought rubber started to rot or something around 5 years.
I know. I will get her a new set come Spring unless she/they make a commitment to replace them. It's still surprising that they lasted so long though, but I do see tiny cracks in the compound.
She's saving for a down payment on a condo, so it's hard for her to spend extra on things like tires.
If she is making any headway on those savings she can easily afford a $300-400 set of tires
Not to go all Dad here, but tires are one of the single most important pieces on your car besides the brakes themselves. Plus, they last years.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on December 01, 2018, 10:26:58 AM
If she is making any headway on those savings she can easily afford a $300-400 set of tires
Quote from: giant_mtb on December 01, 2018, 10:40:43 AM
Not to go all Dad here, but tires are one of the single most important pieces on your car besides the brakes themselves. Plus, they last years.
They'd be about $800 a set up here.
When she gets close to a down payment, the housing prices go up and she needs to save more. Hoping for a slump in housing.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 01, 2018, 08:21:06 AM
Fix the a/c and it will be good another 100k miles...
I've never worried about suspension on all my cars :mask:
I had to replace the rear shocks because they started making noise over bumps. I don't think the oil had leaked out, but the outer bits had rusted and made them not work well. The car is way nicer to drive now, which is good because the nicer the car drives, the more I'm willing to keep it going.
Quote from: giant_mtb on December 01, 2018, 10:40:43 AM
Not to go all Dad here, but tires are one of the single most important pieces on your car besides the brakes themselves. Plus, they last years.
+1
Even used tires would be okay.
Quote from: Morris Minor on November 30, 2018, 09:00:56 PM
My son still has the Pilot I bought in 2002: 184,000 miles. He's replaced the transmission, but it's served him well. He's right on the edge of the decision whether to fix the a/c or replace the car. I was a bit worried about the shocks & suspension bushings but he doesn't want to spend the money on that.
(I think the first transmission would still be in there if he hadn't towed a ridiculously overweight trailer from Boston to San Diego via Atlanta)
In 2008/2009 I was deciding between a new Pilot vs Enclave. I liked the styling of both, the Enclave had a butter smooth ride and felt much more expensive than it was. I felt the Pilot would last me longer and be worth more on trade in or private sale down the road. US was in a big recession at the time and GM gave me 0% financing for 5 years. Honda had no special deals. The Pilot was popular. I went with the Enclave.
I had the Enclave for 6 years and 110,000 miles. The first 5 years and 90 thousand miles it was awesome. Nothing failed and just a few recalls. Beast in the winter. Manufacturer suggested oil change interval was also 10,000 miles although later they dialed that back down I believe to shorter intervals. Year 6 bunch of stuff started failing. Dashboard buttons had their markings worn off the plastic, seat heaters/coolers, spark plugs, engine coils, catalytic converters. Every month I was bringing it in. I'm happy I bought it and would do it again but I think a Pilot would have been better after 100,000 miles.
Quote from: FoMoJo on December 01, 2018, 10:47:13 AM
They'd be about $800 a set up here.
When she gets close to a down payment, the housing prices go up and she needs to save more. Hoping for a slump in housing.
Next time you're visiting or she's visiting, tell her you've got to run an errand and take her keys. Come back an hour later with four new tires on her car.
I did that for my parents a few years ago.
In other news:
Ramos Arzipe will no longer make the Cruze, so that model really is dead in all of North America, likely including Mexico.
However, the Cruze's marketshare has actually grown in Latin America, so that nameplate will stay in South America.
It seems like GM China is doing the legwork on basically all small and cheaper cars, for better or worse (they don't look good). They've made a new chassis that mates and simplifies basically all GM small cars.
The Sonic has been discontinued in Canada.
I have a question though:
What do they expect young people to buy?
The Spark will likely be axed too, and even so it's a tiny car with only four seats and >100HP
The Trax gets expensive quickly, and a small car will definitely beat it's economy real world. The Malibu? It's nice, but it's a large car.
Or anybody, for that matter? Those big truck profits come from shockingly high sticker prices. There's going to be a debt reckoning soon. GM's going to have ridiculous inventories come the next recession.
Do "young people" buy new cars en masse these days? I wouldn't be surprised, given the popularization of relevant macro stats (student loan debt, underemployment, etc.), that the answer is, "no, not really."
The cut backs by the Big 3 earlier in the year look shockingly prescient now (but really, it's probably because they had an army of analysis, economists, etc., that predicted this, and again my hunch is it included far fewer "young" (lower income) new car buyers). Dump the cheap low/no margin stuff and focus on higher cost/higher margin product.
Quote from: GoCougs on January 06, 2019, 07:53:13 PM
The cut backs by the Big 3 earlier in the year look shockingly prescient now (but really, it's probably because they had an army of analysis, economists, etc., that predicted this, and again my hunch is it included far fewer "young" (lower income) new car buyers). Dump the cheap low/no margin stuff and focus on higher cost/higher margin product.
This can't last forever.
Everyone needs a pickup truck. Sure, it's like carrying around an empty suitcase, but it might come in handy.
Quote from: 2o6 on January 06, 2019, 07:11:19 PM
I have a question though:
What do they expect young people to buy?
I don't think they expect "young people" to buy anything from them; as a cohort they're too poor to afford new cars anyway.
Quote from: 2o6 on January 06, 2019, 07:56:02 PM
This can't last forever.
Actually, looking to elsewhere, (Europe, Japan), it's only bound to get worse - "young" people buying new cars is only if they're rich (or have rich jobs, that give them company cars).
Yea young people aren't buying $20K+ anything, that's a nice student loan balance.
That said the Fiesta did have a relatively good sales year, selling nearly 12% more in 2018 than 2017.
People are holding onto cars longer these days anyway. either due to longer loan lengths *raises hand* or just cars being more durable and reliable *looks at wife's car*. If we're being completely frank the sales volume and number of models/brands available has always been unsustainable. I'd say the logical number of cars to sell in the US every year is probably ~10-12 million rather than the 17M we saw at the peak, and we could probably cut out a quarter of the brands/models for sale. Look at all the brands that are struggling while volume is high.... mother fuckers are gonna get washed when that tide rolls out.
I can't speak for the US, but young people here seem to be buying new cars more than ever. It was unheard of back in the '80s when I graduated, but today dealerships have student programs where you just have to prove you are a student in college/university, with weekly $60 payments and 84 month loan terms.
Gawd. I hope you're exaggerating.
7 year loans?! :wtf:
Quote from: Rockraven on January 07, 2019, 05:43:55 AM
I can't speak for the US, but young people here seem to be buying new cars more than ever. It was unheard of back in the '80s when I graduated, but today dealerships have student programs where you just have to prove you are a student in college/university, with weekly $60 payments and 84 month loan terms.
LOL, $260/mo x 7 years. How much down?
Weekly payments. :facepalm:
Fiesta sales have give up because there are less good small cars.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on December 01, 2018, 05:59:18 PM
+1
Even used tires would be okay.
I personally wouldn't touch used tires with a 10 ft pole, and I actually know something about tires and things to look for that would indicate underlying damage.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on January 07, 2019, 05:47:35 AM
Gawd. I hope you're exaggerating.
Quote from: MrH on January 07, 2019, 06:07:17 AM
7 year loans?! :wtf:
Sadly not exaggerating. 72 and 84 months is the new normal, and even 96 months on trucks.
http://www.bayviewauto.ca/used/
2019 Kia Sedona LX
- 8 PASS! REVERSE CAM! HTD SEATS! BLUETOOTH! PWR GROUP!
Price: $27,995
Listed price does not include taxes, licensing fees and OMVIC fee.
Finance from $169*(Bi-weekly)
$27,995 x 96 Months @ 5.9% APR (estimated financing rate, cost of borrowing $7,156). $0 down payment.
Plus HST and License.
P.P.S.A + Tax Extra
Mileage:17,098 km
If consumers are otherwise unable to afford the product unless it's financed over hugely long period, that's a bad sign for the sector (product is too expensive for target market) and the economy as a whole (people are getting poorer).
96 months, JFC
7 year auto loans aren't exactly new. It's been happening in the states for several years now. I'm pretty sure it's not even the first time we've complained about it here.
But yeah... young people don't buy new cars. I'm 31 and can't think of many people my age who have purchased new, and the few exceptions have been pretty recent.
It's forever debt. 72 month loan. Trade car in after 36 months. Roll negative equity into 96 month loan, payment stays the same.
Quote from: Eye of the Tiger on January 07, 2019, 10:27:08 AM
It's forever debt. 72 month loan. Trade car in after 36 months. Roll negative equity into 96 month loan, payment stays the same.
That's the game.
Quote from: BimmerM3 on January 07, 2019, 10:15:59 AM
7 year auto loans aren't exactly new. It's been happening in the states for several years now. I'm pretty sure it's not even the first time we've complained about it here.
But yeah... young people don't buy new cars. I'm 31 and can't think of many people my age who have purchased new, and the few exceptions have been pretty recent.
I bought a RX8, JGC, and a house by that age -shrug-
... and Focus the next year...
7/8 year auto loans are the name of the game with the "finance anything with a pulse" dealership networks that push garbage FCA or Nissan products. Its a mess.
Quote from: r0tor on January 07, 2019, 10:36:25 AM
I bought a RX8, JGC, and a house by that age -shrug-
... and Focus the next year...
:rolleyes:
Allow me to rephrase: young people don't buy new cars
anymore.
Quote from: BimmerM3 on January 07, 2019, 11:00:50 AM
:rolleyes:
Allow me to rephrase: young people don't buy new cars anymore.
And from my observations, son's/daughter's friends, etc, they do.
Here's what happens... young person/student looks at a $5000 used car, salesman says he can get them in a brand new car w/full warranty for same monthly payment (longer term though) and besides, students qualify for financing on new vehicles. Young person/student drives off in new car.
I might lease a new car at the end of the summer. Cheaper payment than a few year old car, plus you get a warranty. Gives me time to save up for a car at the end of the lease. Have to run the numbers a few more times to see if it really makes sense, but it seems like it does. I wouldn't continually lease, though. That's not a good strategy.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on January 07, 2019, 11:37:49 AM
I might lease a new car at the end of the summer. Cheaper payment than a few year old car, plus you get a warranty. Gives me time to save up for a car at the end of the lease. Have to run the numbers a few more times to see if it really makes sense, but it seems like it does. I wouldn't continually lease, though. That's not a good strategy.
Leasing makes sense under some circumstances, although the length of the lease should be short enough so that it's covered by the warranty and you don't have to replace tires, brakes, etc.
Quote from: Rockraven on January 07, 2019, 11:07:31 AM
Here's what happens... young person/student looks at a $5000 used car, salesman says he can get them in a brand new car w/full warranty for same monthly payment (longer term though) and besides, students qualify for financing on new vehicles. Young person/student drives off in new car.
The problem is that the older generation has failed in educating the younger generation on fiscal responsibility. I feel like this started with the baby boomers over-extending themselves and setting a poor example for the generations that followed.
Quote from: MX793 on January 07, 2019, 11:42:49 AM
The problem is that the older generation has failed in educating the younger generation on fiscal responsibility. I feel like this started with the baby boomers over-extending themselves and setting a poor example for the generations that followed.
It isn't necessarily a failure. Young people need to establish credit.
Quote from: Rockraven on January 07, 2019, 11:51:26 AM
It isn't necessarily a failure. Young people need to establish credit.
Pretty risky way to do it - it's a lot of debt to float.
I did it just fine with a $5000 limit CC. :huh:
Quote from: Rockraven on January 07, 2019, 11:51:26 AM
It isn't necessarily a failure. Young people need to establish credit.
You can establish credit without getting ass fucked by it.
Quote from: Laconian on January 07, 2019, 12:02:03 PM
Pretty risky way to do it - it's a lot of debt to float.
I did it just fine with a $5000 limit CC. :huh:
Yeah, for real. The whole "get a loan to build credit" thing is a scam, IMO.
Quote from: Laconian on January 07, 2019, 12:02:03 PM
Pretty risky way to do it - it's a lot of debt to float.
I did it just fine with a $5000 limit CC. :huh:
Chase has increased my credit limit 2-3 times this year even though I've been carrying around a balance the entire time without paying it off. (0% APR for another couple months)
When I bought my first new car at like 21/22, the only thing I had on my credit was an Express Credit card with like a $300 limit and another general credit card with a $500 limit. I still had like a 700ish credit score. Buying a car to build credit seems like a lot of BS honestly.
If you allow yourself get ass fucked by it, THEN it's a failure. There's a lot of benefit to have a new, full warranty, reliable car with manageable monthly payments. You establish credit and learn responsibility and pride of ownership. I'd rather see my kid take ownership of a new car than be given a $5000 credit card.
Quote from: Xer0 on January 07, 2019, 12:10:04 PM
When I bought my first new car at like 21/22, the only thing I had on my credit was an Express Credit card with like a $300 limit and another general credit card with a $500 limit. I still had like a 700ish credit score. Buying a car to build credit seems like a lot of BS honestly.
I'm not saying to buy a new car to build credit, but that it's a side benefit of financing a car.
Y'all aversion to auto loans is weird. Not all car loans are bad, and are a means to an end.
The fact is that cost of living has risen dramatically, and pay has stayed flat.
Interest on smaller loans is usually negligible (ex less than 3k over the life of the loan)
The problem is when loans get out of control, with the "negligible" interest blowing up because of the high purchase price, length of loan, and lack of money down.
It's hard for people to get any sort of cash up to buy a brand new car; and even if I did I feel like it's snarter to just have a loan anyways to keep that money on hand.
The problem is that purchase prices on even basic cars keeps escalating, and there's no end in sight. Yes, there are a lot of dumb boomers out there refinancing and rolling negative equity in their new oversized SUV, but there's a problem of entry at the bottom of the market too. If the average price of a new basic car keeps rocketing closer and past 30k, where will we stop? I don't have any kids, so I don't mind driving subcompacts et al.
But what if someone has 2-3 kids? Who can afford a cheap people carrier? (New)
Quote from: 2o6 on January 07, 2019, 12:21:26 PM
Y'all aversion to auto loans is weird. Not all car loans are bad, and are a means to an end.
The fact is that cost of living has risen dramatically, and pay has stayed flat.
Interest on smaller loans is usually negligible (ex less than 3k over the life of the loan)
The problem is when loans get out of control, with the "negligible" interest blowing up because of the high purchase price, length of loan, and lack of money down.
It's hard for people to get any sort of cash up to buy a brand new car; and even if I did I feel like it's snarter to just have a loan anyways to keep that money on hand.
The problem is that purchase prices on even basic cars keeps escalating, and there's no end in sight. Yes, there are a lot of dumb boomers out there refinancing and rolling negative equity in their new oversized SUV, but there's a problem of entry at the bottom of the market too. If the average price of a new basic car keeps rocketing closer and past 30k, where will we stop? I don't have any kids, so I don't mind driving subcompacts et al.
But what if someone has 2-3 kids? Who can afford a cheap people carrier? (New)
A much bigger problem is "buy-here-pay-here" used cars with 30% interest, like the junk I work on. That's why they pay me to install GPS tracking and starter disabling boxes on all of them.
I don't feel too bad about the new Fiesta that I got with $4K off the $16K sticker and a 5% interest rate, but I still want to sell it and get rid of the payment.
Quote from: Rockraven on January 07, 2019, 12:17:19 PM
I'm not saying to buy a new car to build credit, but that it's a side benefit of financing a car.
IMO, building credit should never be a reason to do anything and the fact that it happens is completely and totally irrelevant and not worth bringing up. Financing more car than you can afford doesn't magically build twice as much credit, and even then, a high credit rating with like 20K a year in reported income is worth squat anyway. The issue is that people just aren't smart with their finances, not that financing is bad. Its just another tool as with everything else.
Quote from: Rockraven on January 07, 2019, 11:51:26 AM
It isn't necessarily a failure. Young people need to establish credit.
You don't need a 7 year loan on a brand new car to build credit. I had never taken a loan out prior to my mortgage. I had 2 credit cards that I used for gas and sundries that I paid off in full every month. I had an 811 credit score when I applied for my mortgage.
$5 grand doesn't buy much car these days. But instead of being duped into the "same monthly payment" trap, or the notion that perpetually monthly payments on durable but depreciating goods is normal or financially healthy, young people should be taught to use debt sparingly and wisely. Instead of taking a 7 or 8 year loan on a 25K new car, take a 3 year loan on a 12K used car. Pay it off in full before trading the car in for something else. Set aside money so you either don't need a loan next time or you can get by with a smaller one. Not the "move up the ladder while maintaining the same monthly payments" strategy that too many people practice today.
Quote from: 2o6 on January 07, 2019, 12:21:26 PM
Y'all aversion to auto loans is weird. Not all car loans are bad, and are a means to an end.
The fact is that cost of living has risen dramatically, and pay has stayed flat.
Interest on smaller loans is usually negligible (ex less than 3k over the life of the loan)
The problem is when loans get out of control, with the "negligible" interest blowing up because of the high purchase price, length of loan, and lack of money down.
It's hard for people to get any sort of cash up to buy a brand new car; and even if I did I feel like it's snarter to just have a loan anyways to keep that money on hand.
The problem is that purchase prices on even basic cars keeps escalating, and there's no end in sight. Yes, there are a lot of dumb boomers out there refinancing and rolling negative equity in their new oversized SUV, but there's a problem of entry at the bottom of the market too. If the average price of a new basic car keeps rocketing closer and past 30k, where will we stop? I don't have any kids, so I don't mind driving subcompacts et al.
But what if someone has 2-3 kids? Who can afford a cheap people carrier? (New)
Because I think taking out an 8 year biweekly loan for a car is stupid does not mean I don't see that sometimes people need to do what they need to do. Its weird that you don't see any middle ground there.
And yeah, having kids is expensive.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on January 07, 2019, 12:42:49 PM
Because I think taking out an 8 year biweekly loan for a car is stupid does not mean I don't see that sometimes people need to do what they need to do. Its weird that you don't see any middle ground there.
And yeah, having kids is expensive.
Did I say there was no middle ground? A lot of y'all here go bananas with what are very average loan terms.
It IS stupid. If you need to finance more than 60 months, it's too much car and you can't afford it. This now goes back to the original question, regarding the lack of affordable new car options for young people. A $16,000 Spark is generally affordable for most students and younger workers. A $24,000 Trax isn't. To get the payments down to affordable level, enter the 72-84 month loan.
Quote from: Rockraven on January 07, 2019, 12:47:41 PM
It IS stupid. If you need to finance more than 60 months, it's too much car and you can't afford it. This now goes back to the original question, regarding the lack of affordable new car options for young people. A $16,000 Spark is generally affordable for most students and younger workers. A $24,000 Trax isn't. To get the payments down to affordable level, enter the 72-84 month loan.
That's the problem I'm saying. GM (and ford) are positioning cars of this type as the new entry level, and they're not cheap.
Quote from: 2o6 on January 07, 2019, 12:46:36 PM
Did I say there was no middle ground? A lot of y'all here go bananas with what are very average loan terms.
None of the loan terms mentioned before your previous post were average or normal.
Quote from: Rockraven on January 07, 2019, 12:11:12 PM
If you allow yourself get ass fucked by it, THEN it's a failure. There's a lot of benefit to have a new, full warranty, reliable car with manageable monthly payments. You establish credit and learn responsibility and pride of ownership. I'd rather see my kid take ownership of a new car than be given a $5000 credit card.
Young people generally don't have good employment security*, and they almost certainly don't have cash cushions. Losing your job at that age could mean bankruptcy if you had a big auto loan knocking on your door every month. That's a huge downside that can absolutely ruin a kid's future.
* Enrollment in "career jobs" for millenials is really low for a number of reasons, e.g. large swathes jobs being eliminated, Boomers not retiring from the workforce, companies abusing contract labor to avoid paying benefits, etc.
There's no shame in buying used, especially if new cars are such a stretch for you that you need a super-long loan. Cars last forever nowadays.
Anyways, I just bought a new Toyota Tundra DuallyMax 4500 and my payment is only $12.96 every 16 minutes, for the next 128 months.
Quote from: Laconian on January 07, 2019, 12:57:49 PM
There's no shame in buying used, especially if new cars are such a stretch for you that you need a super-long loan. Cars last forever nowadays.
There's no shame, but no warranty or residual value either. I agree it's a better option that 60+ mo loans though.
Quote from: 2o6 on January 07, 2019, 12:58:14 PM
Anyways, I just bought a new Toyota Tundra DuallyMax 4500 and my payment is only $12.96 every 16 minutes, for the next 128 months.
Score.
More related to the thread, if this China tarriff falls through, I wonder if GM is gonna port over their budget lines from SAIC.
Ex, Baojun. Or the Lova. Or the Cavalier.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on January 07, 2019, 11:37:49 AM
I might lease a new car at the end of the summer. Cheaper payment than a few year old car, plus you get a warranty. Gives me time to save up for a car at the end of the lease. Have to run the numbers a few more times to see if it really makes sense, but it seems like it does. I wouldn't continually lease, though. That's not a good strategy.
It depends how long you keep cars for. If I didn't drive 22K miles a year I'd lease. Wifey drives about half as much as I do so I'm def considering it for her when the time comes. IIRC I've heard of people getting a buy out price way cheaper than the residual, so it may even work out to be cheaper than buying outright in some cases, esp with captive financing on the leasing end.
Quote from: r0tor on January 07, 2019, 10:36:25 AM
I bought a RX8, JGC, and a house by that age -shrug-
... and Focus the next year...
But have you paid off your house?
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on January 07, 2019, 01:27:02 PM
It depends how long you keep cars for. If I didn't drive 22K miles a year I'd lease. Wifey drives about half as much as I do so I'm def considering it for her when the time comes. IIRC I've heard of people getting a buy out price way cheaper than the residual, so it may even work out to be cheaper than buying outright in some cases, esp with captive financing on the leasing end.
My Focus was a 4 yr lease @ 0%, and I bought it out for $8600, which I believe was at least $2000 savings over residual.
Quote from: Rockraven on January 07, 2019, 01:02:44 PM
There's no shame, but no warranty or residual value either. I agree it's a better option that 60+ mo loans though.
Eh, does residual value really matter that much? If you buy a new car for $35,000 and sell it five years later for $18,000 you've spent $17,000 on the car. Had you bought a three-year-old used one for $22,000 and sold it five years later for $5,000 you're still at the same spot financially; you're still spending $17,000 over five years (or $3,400 per annum). If you drive it
ten years and sell it for $1,500 you'll have spent an average of $2,050/yr. That's a lot of money freed to pay for repairs out of pocket if one's really worried about being out of warranty.
Quote from: BimmerM3 on January 07, 2019, 11:00:50 AM
:rolleyes:
Allow me to rephrase: young people don't buy new cars anymore.
I'm not exactly thaaaaat old
Quote from: 93JC on January 07, 2019, 02:54:13 PM
Eh, does residual value really matter that much? If you buy a new car for $35,000 and sell it five years later for $18,000 you've spent $17,000 on the car. Had you bought a three-year-old used one for $22,000 and sold it five years later for $5,000 you're still at the same spot financially; you're still spending $17,000 over five years (or $3,400 per annum). If you drive it ten years and sell it for $1,500 you'll have spent an average of $2,050/yr. That's a lot of money freed to pay for repairs out of pocket if one's really worried about being out of warranty.
Ehhh the numbers don't generally look like that. I think a 5 year old $35K car is gonna be more like $12-14K private party. That same car at 10 years might be $7-8K. So depreciation wise you save a ton, but of course you run the risk of unplanned repairs. However cars are so reliable these days that outside of European luxury cars and pre-bailout domestics I think that risk is low. But yea residuals definitely matter. A few cars have been torpedoed out of the gate because of uncompetitive, unsubsidized residuals.
Personally I'm still at a loss as to why CPO leases aren't a bigger thing.
Quote from: 93JC on January 07, 2019, 02:54:13 PM
Eh, does residual value really matter that much? If you buy a new car for $35,000 and sell it five years later for $18,000 you've spent $17,000 on the car. Had you bought a three-year-old used one for $22,000 and sold it five years later for $5,000 you're still at the same spot financially; you're still spending $17,000 over five years (or $3,400 per annum). If you drive it ten years and sell it for $1,500 you'll have spent an average of $2,050/yr. That's a lot of money freed to pay for repairs out of pocket if one's really worried about being out of warranty.
Depreciation on a car doesn't work like that however.
$35k to $18k is $17k/$35k = 48.6%, whereas $22k to $5k is $17k/$22k = 77.3%, which is an impossible premise. A car depreciates far quicker from 0 to 5 years than from 3 to 8 year.
So, yes, it matters. A lot.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on January 07, 2019, 12:08:33 PM
Chase has increased my credit limit 2-3 times this year even though I've been carrying around a balance the entire time without paying it off. (0% APR for another couple months)
They're increasing your credit limit because they think you'll use it (i.e., they'll make money off of you).
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on January 07, 2019, 05:09:23 PM
Ehhh the numbers don't generally look like that. I think a 5 year old $35K car is gonna be more like $12-14K private party. That same car at 10 years might be $7-8K.
Depends on the market; used cars in the US seem to be much cheaper than they are here.
I admittedly didn't really think the eight-year-old price through very well, was just thinking anecdotally of friends who ditched their eight-year-old car for only a couple grand, but they're not really a representative sample (she drove about 40,000 km/yr for the first six years she had it, so it wasn't worth much thereafter...).
Really that just reinforces my point. If I take a look at Honda Accord prices on kijiji.ca, asking price for a three-year-old is $21,000-$29,000. Let's say the average actual transaction price is about $25,000 (the one at the top end is a bit of an outlier). When new a 'typical' trim, a Touring with an automatic, is about $37,000. Five-year-old examples are asking for $15,000-$24,000; let's be a little conservative and say they're actually selling for about $20,000. Asking for eight-year-old Accords is $10,000-$16,000; let's say transaction average is $13,000.
New Accord: $37,000 at time of purchase - $20,000 after five years = $17,000 spent on depreciation = $3,400/yr
3-yr-old: $25,000 at time of purchase - $13,000 after five years = $12,000 spent on depreciation = $2,400/yr
QuoteSo depreciation wise you save a ton, but of course you run the risk of unplanned repairs. However cars are so reliable these days that outside of European luxury cars and pre-bailout domestics I think that risk is low.
Back-of-the-napkin calculations above show you end up ahead if you don't spend over $5,000 on repairs over five years. And it's not as though the brand new car doesn't run a risk of having out-of-warranty repairs either: Honda's factory warranty is five years or 100,000 km on the powertrain, but bumper-to-bumper is only three years/60,000 km.
There's no way around it: it makes far better financial sense to buy slightly used and drive it for a looooong time.
QuoteA few cars have been torpedoed out of the gate because of uncompetitive, unsubsidized residuals.
Well, yeah, but this whole subsidized residuals BS—mastered by zee Germans—is a mug's game. You give your poseur-class Mercedes or whatever back to the dealer after three years and they get you right back on the treadmill, making payments on a new one for another three years.
Yeah you guys are mostly agreeing with each other.
But the bigger point is that residual values, by themselves, don't really matter - depreciation matters. And while I'm sure you can find a couple exceptions out there, it's pretty well accepted that the vast majority of vehicles depreciate faster when they're newer.
Quote from: Laconian on January 07, 2019, 12:57:49 PM
There's no shame in buying used, especially if new cars are such a stretch for you that you need a super-long loan. Cars last forever nowadays.
Bought Odyssey in (Feb?) 2015 with 168k miles on it. Super great condition, cash= $5500.
Now has 231k miles, biggest expense was peace of mind in t-belt/ pumps replacement.
Adding purchase price and repairs (I do many myself) brings a "monthly payment" down to about $156/ month. Van isn't worth a ton right now though for resale.
But honestly I did the math awhile back and buying cheap ($3k-5k) cars and doing most maintenance yourself, keep them 3-4 years, I end up with an average $150/month payment. Most people are scared of breakdowns or whatever but my costs above figure in the price of a few rentals and unexpected repairs.
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Not related directly to the quote:
Honestly the key to keeping costs down is holding on to a car longer than 3 years.
My wife bought her car new (2005 Impreza) and we still have it. Super low mileage when we got married 5 years ago, under 70k. But figure purchase price, interest, maintenance, and (due to stupid Georgia dealer) used motor replacement, an average "monthly" payment (over entire lifetime) at this point is around $190/month.
As noted above the people that roll negative equity into a new loan really dig themselves into a deep hole!
Quote from: CaminoRacer on January 07, 2019, 12:08:33 PM
Chase has increased my credit limit 2-3 times this year even though I've been carrying around a balance the entire time without paying it off. (0% APR for another couple months)
They're hoping you'll get deeper in debt and be unable to pay off the balance when the high interest rates kick in.
I've said this before; buying used can sometimes be a luxury some can't afford. There are risks. Having a vehicle out of warranty means you either have to be willing and capable to perform repairs yourself, or have funds in reserve to pay for them and provide backup transportation if necessary.
If you've got a shitty enough job, missing work may even jeopardize all of your income.
True. I bought my Mazda new largely because I got sick of having a used car that I had to tinker on all the time to keep running right.
It was a very nice blessing to have A4 from brand new. Had to worry about virtually nothing beyond oil changes and tires. However, as it was around 65k miles and about to be out of warranty when I sold it...I was happy to be rid of it given the common horror stories.
With Taco, I'm confident in it, but it is a 176k+ mile vehicle, so I always have thoughts in the back of my head about catastrophic failures, though it has shown no such signs. Just the usual wear items and maintenance. *knocks on wood*
Quote from: dazzleman on January 07, 2019, 08:07:49 PM
They're hoping you'll get deeper in debt and be unable to pay off the balance when the high interest rates kick in.
Yeah, exactly. I've done nothing to prove that I deserve more credit, but that's why they're giving it out. :lol:
I'm just milking them though. If they're gonna give me a free loan, I'll take it. I've got more than enough to pay off the balance sitting in an Ally savings account earning 2% until it's time to pay off the credit card.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on January 07, 2019, 08:07:52 PM
I've said this before; buying used can sometimes be a luxury some can't afford. There are risks. Having a vehicle out of warranty means you either have to be willing and capable to perform repairs yourself, or have funds in reserve to pay for them and provide backup transportation if necessary.
If you've got a shitty enough job, missing work may even jeopardize all of your income.
I think there's a wide berth between a new car and a money pit on its last legs. Especially with financing. You get something basic like a 9 year old Corolla or Sentra, you throw a warranty on top and stretch the note out... you will survive and probably have to do nothing but change tires/oil/brakes.
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on January 08, 2019, 05:52:11 AM
I think there's a wide berth between a new car and a money pit on its last legs. Especially with financing. You get something basic like a 9 year old Corolla or Sentra, you throw a warranty on top and stretch the note out... you will survive and probably have to do nothing but change tires/oil/brakes.
There's definitely probably a sweet spot for every car when it comes to cost of ownership, but I feel 9 years old is probably too old for most. (Yes, my new car right now is a 17 year old Toyota)
Quote from: 12,000 RPM on January 08, 2019, 05:52:11 AM
I think there's a wide berth between a new car and a money pit on its last legs. Especially with financing. You get something basic like a 9 year old Corolla or Sentra, you throw a warranty on top and stretch the note out... you will survive and probably have to do nothing but change tires/oil/brakes.
Where are you getting a warranty on a 9 year old Sentra? :confused:
Quote from: MrH on January 08, 2019, 06:58:39 AM
Where are you getting a warranty on a 9 year old Sentra? :confused:
Private warranty companies are big business. They will warranty just about anything.
Quote from: Eye of the Tiger on January 08, 2019, 07:23:37 AM
Private warranty companies are big business. They will warranty just about anything.
They're also often a rip-off.
Quote from: MX793 on January 08, 2019, 07:33:49 AM
They're also often a rip-off.
I know a guy who started one here in Utah that has now expanded into Arizona & Nevada. He's got a really nice, big house and a Deuce & a Half. :lol:
Yeah, you'd spend as much or more on the warranty as you would the car.
Quote from: CaminoRacer on January 08, 2019, 08:18:00 AM
I know a guy who started one here in Utah that has now expanded into Arizona & Nevada. He's got a really nice, big house and a Deuce & a Half. :lol:
Deuces are cheap though.
Quote from: MX793 on January 08, 2019, 07:33:49 AM
They're also often a rip-off.
You don't get to be big business by giving money away. :lol:
Aftermarket warranty companies are for the most part a bunch of thieving snakes. They disallow legitimate claims for technicalities, cheat mechanics, and game labor times on jobs.
This will be a whole chapter in my Auto Repair tell all book. ;)
I mean, all warranties and insurances are a cost/benefit analysis by the provider. Whether that's Honda offering a factory warranty or someone else offering a third party warranty, you're paying for it. That's a large part of why newer cars depreciate faster than used.
On average, most people will not receive the same value in benefits that they are paying for the warranty/insurance unless the provider got their actuarial probabilities wrong, so it's a matter of determining whether the peace of mind of not having to worry about repairs is worth the cost, whether that be in additional depreciation or as an aftermarket warranty.
It might be true that the payout vs. cost for aftermarket warranties is even less than that of factory warranties (I have no idea), but the overall concept isn't really that different.
Quote from: Soup DeVille on January 07, 2019, 08:07:52 PM
I've said this before; buying used can sometimes be a luxury some can't afford. There are risks. Having a vehicle out of warranty means you either have to be willing and capable to perform repairs yourself, or have funds in reserve to pay for them and provide backup transportation if necessary.
If you've got a shitty enough job, missing work may even jeopardize all of your income.
Yup.
And I (silently) curse everytime I have to go wrench on my vehicles. No matter how minor the work is, if I finish without going too far over the time I expected it to take, and without too many bumps/bruises I breathe a very long sigh of relief.
Non-OEM warranties are kind of like insurance.
Insurance is a bet against a catastrophic event (or series of, like health insurance) which the consumer doesn't really budget for.
If you have a bazillion dollars in the bank though- there's no reason to pay for life insurance, or comprehensive auto insurance, or home owners insurance. Because you could cover any events or issues yourself, no reason to pay a company.
With non-OEM warranties it's kinda the same idea. If you have money set aside for big repairs, I wouldn't consider paying for a warranty. But they could provide peace of mind to someone who otherwise couldn't handle an unexpected huge repair job.
Quote from: AutobahnSHO on January 08, 2019, 04:23:48 PM
Non-OEM warranties are kind of like insurance.
Insurance is a bet against a catastrophic event (or series of, like health insurance) which the consumer doesn't really budget for.
If you have a bazillion dollars in the bank though- there's no reason to pay for life insurance, or comprehensive auto insurance, or home owners insurance. Because you could cover any events or issues yourself, no reason to pay a company.
With non-OEM warranties it's kinda the same idea. If you have money set aside for big repairs, I wouldn't consider paying for a warranty. But they could provide peace of mind to someone who otherwise couldn't handle an unexpected huge repair job.
3rd party warranties are more often than not a scam. Many of the most notable ones have been taken to federal court for fraud. General advice is to get an OEM extended warranty or none at all. They aren't cheap either. If you can come up with the couple of thousand that these cost, you can set aside some money to cover repairs into an emergency fund. I'm not sure I've ever shelled out more than $2000 in total repairs (I'm not counting maintenance items like tires and brakes, which wouldn't be under warranty) on any vehicle I've owned, and I keep all of my vehicles at least 5 years and I owned some that were >8 years old. A lot of these 3rd party warranties cost more than $1500. If you can find a clean, 6 year old car, it should carry you reliably for 4-5 years with barely more than basic maintenance. Especially if you live someplace with a milder climate and salt-free roads. Put the 2 grand you didn't spend on a scam 3rd party extended warranty in a coffee can and bury it in the back yard.
Quote from: MX793 on January 08, 2019, 06:33:28 PM
3rd party warranties are more often than not a scam. Many of the most notable ones have been taken to federal court for fraud. General advice is to get an OEM extended warranty or none at all. They aren't cheap either. If you can come up with the couple of thousand that these cost, you can set aside some money to cover repairs into an emergency fund. I'm not sure I've ever shelled out more than $2000 in total repairs (I'm not counting maintenance items like tires and brakes, which wouldn't be under warranty) on any vehicle I've owned, and I keep all of my vehicles at least 5 years and I owned some that were >8 years old. A lot of these 3rd party warranties cost more than $1500. If you can find a clean, 6 year old car, it should carry you reliably for 4-5 years with barely more than basic maintenance. Especially if you live someplace with a milder climate and salt-free roads. Put the 2 grand you didn't spend on a scam 3rd party extended warranty in a coffee can and bury it in the back yard.
Can people roll the cost of the warranty into their used car loan? That would make it more accessible, even if it's still not really a great idea.
Quote from: BimmerM3 on January 08, 2019, 06:44:22 PM
Can people roll the cost of the warranty into their used car loan? That would make it more accessible, even if it's still not really a great idea.
Maybe if it's sold through the dealership. I don't believe you can with a 3rd party (though the 3rd parties may offer a monthly payment plan).
Quote from: BimmerM3 on January 08, 2019, 06:44:22 PM
Can people roll the cost of the warranty into their used car loan? That would make it more accessible, even if it's still not really a great idea.
Quote from: MX793 on January 08, 2019, 06:51:42 PM
Maybe if it's sold through the dealership. I don't believe you can with a 3rd party (though the 3rd parties may offer a monthly payment plan).
My parents did this this with their Buick Rendezvous.