Toyota Says Data Proves EV-Only Policy Is Worse For The Planet

[cawimmer430]

Toyota Says Data Proves EV-Only Policy Is Worse For The Planet

The automaker provided figures to back up its claim that the market needs to accommodate multiple energy sources

Despite doing more than another carmaker to popularize the idea of hybrid technology, Toyota has been slow to enter the full EV market and has received flak as a result.

But now Toyota claims it has the data to prove that going all-in on EVs as many rival automakers have committed to do, isn't just a bad business decision, it could be bad for the environment. The firm's Chief Scientist, Gill Pratt, says it makes far more sense for car companies to offer cars with different energy sources, including hybrids and hydrogen.

But if EVs produce no emissions, why would we want to make more hybrids? Pratt says it comes down to the availability of lithium, the mineral used in the production of battery packs. He predicts that the car industry will soon be hit by a shortage of lithium, as well as other minerals used in battery production, and also a lack of recharging points as the number of EVs in production skyrockets demand.

And if there isn't enough lithium available to power tens of millions of EVs, it makes sense to share it out between hybrid vehicles. Pratt says making millions of hybrids will have a greater impact on CO2 output than using the same quantity of lithium to create a smaller number of pure EVs.

In a hypothetical model outlined to Automotive News, Pratt starts with 100 combustion vehicles that emit 250g/km of CO2. If you have enough lithium to make 100 kWh of batteries you could build one top-spec long range Tesla but the remaining 99 vehicles would still be combustion-powered, giving a fleet CO2 figure of 248.5 g/km. Spread that 100 kWh out between 90 traditional hybrids though, leaving only 10 plain combustion cars, and the average emissions drops to 205 g/km.

This doesn't mean Toyota isn't interested in EVs. It recently announced a Tesla Model 3-sized bZ3X sedan for China to complement its bZ4X SUV. But the company is adamant that rival firms like Honda, Cadillac, Volvo and others, are making a mistake by throwing all their weight behind pure EVs.

"There is a crunch that's going to come," Pratt told Automotive News. "Time is on our side. These shortages — not only of battery materials, but of charging infrastructure — will make it abundantly clear that one size does not fit all, and that the best answer is actually a mix of different vehicle types."



Link: https://www.carscoops.com/2023/01/toyota-says-data-proves-ev-only-policy-is-worse-for-the-planet/

[r0tor]

The lithium argument is a massive fail - batteries don't absolutely need lithium.  As lithium prices increase due to lact of availability, batteries chemistry will change.

[GoCougs]

And Toyota is 100% correct - also don't forget the environmental toll of the (re)colonization and wars in Africa and South America to get dat lithium (and copper and everything else).

[giant_mtb]

The lithium argument is a massive fail - batteries don't absolutely need lithium.  As lithium prices increase due to lact of availability, batteries chemistry will change.

All that does is shift the sociopolotical battle from one resource/region to another resource/region and the ravaging of the earth continues.

[r0tor]

All that does is shift the sociopolotical battle from one resource/region to another resource/region and the ravaging of the earth continues.

Thus you have the history of mankind?  Any different then wars fought over oil?

[GoCougs]

The other issue of course is though Toyota is technically correct, much time, $$ and environmental toil will be spent in developing disparate vehicle types, energy sources and infrastructure that WON'T be spent on refining current mainstream technologies. How much more fuel efficient, clean, useful and cost effective would a gas-only Corolla or CR-V get given said untold time and $$?

[giant_mtb]

Thus you have the history of mankind?  Any different then wars fought over oil?

My apologies, I thought EVs were supposed to help save the world, not exacerbate the issues and spread them out even further.

[WookieOnRitalin]

The lithium argument is a massive fail - batteries don't absolutely need lithium.  As lithium prices increase due to lact of availability, batteries chemistry will change.

To what exactly?

Anything economical?

Anything abundant?

Anything efficient?

[GoCougs]

Yup, TANSTAAFL when it comes to battery chemistry - lithium, cadmium, cobalt, phosphorus, manganese - pretty much all the known world's largest deposits are in Africa, South America and China; same with copper and gold, and I'm gonna guess with pretty much most if not all elements of note used in modern electronics and battery manufacturing.

[r0tor]

Sodium-uon batteries are now commercially available .  Sodium-sulphur batteries are becoming a thing.  Magnesium is being looked at as a lithium replacement.  Glass and silicon batteries are also in development.

The failure of the argument again is lithium is not like a hydrocarbon - it can and will be replaced as technology and market conditions evolve.

[CaminoRacer]

The materials in old batteries can also be recycled.

You can't recycle used gasoline. lol

[Laconian]

The materials in old batteries can also be recycled.

You can't recycle used gasoline. lol

Also, the cells themselves are packaged in a standardized way that allows them to be harvested and reused directly with only a small amount of manual labor. A cell with 70% life might be bad for a car but amazing for a cheap whole house battery backup.

[GoCougs]

All told, the history of recycling has shown that things didn't work out nearly as well as planned for ALL sorts of reasons, particularly for electronics waste (esp. dumping into Third World countries). Even if recycling had been the boon it was hoped to be, WtP buy ever more stuff every year, so or the foreseeable future there will always be a net net take of virgin materials, particularly for EVs since EVs worldwide are way less than 1% of the vehicles on the road (read: recycling is a non factor in the challenge of raw material extraction for the ramp up of widespread EV adoption).

Now, things may not proceed on their present course. Perhaps the West will instead play nice with those various countries (and China, who has already has more than a big head start in those countries), and establish fair, equitable and nonviolent trade, but given the West's (esp. the US's) extreme proclivity for war and empire (don't forget that the Russo/Ukraine war is partially the result of the EU outsourcing its fossil fuel responsibility to Russia) to me that does not look likely in the least. IOW, meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

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[Soup DeVille]

All told, the history of recycling has shown that things didn't work out nearly as well as planned for ALL sorts of reasons, particularly for electronics waste (esp. dumping into Third World countries). Even if recycling had been the boon it was hoped to be, WtP buy ever more stuff every year, so or the foreseeable future there will always be a net net take of virgin materials, particularly for EVs since EVs worldwide are way less than 1% of the vehicles on the road (read: recycling is a non factor in the challenge of raw material extraction for the ramp up of widespread EV adoption).

Now, things may not proceed on their present course. Perhaps the West will instead play nice with those various countries (and China, who has already has more than a big head start in those countries), and establish fair, equitable and nonviolent trade, but given the West's (esp. the US's) extreme proclivity for war and empire (don't forget that the Russo/Ukraine war is partially the result of the EU outsourcing its fossil fuel responsibility to Russia) to me that does not look likely in the least. IOW, meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

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Just as a pactical concern: those wind vanes are hollow, and will eventually crush, which probably won't be a good thing for whatever is on top of them at the time.

[GoCougs]

Uff da - it's hard to pick which has worked out the least well for the environmental premise - wind power or en masse carbon fiber manufacturing (esp. life cycle).

[giant_mtb]

Why aren't they recycling those turbine blades?

[r0tor]

Why aren't they recycling those turbine blades?

They are fiberglass

[giant_mtb]

They are fiberglass

Oh nice.

[GoCougs]

Why aren't they recycling those turbine blades?

Because they're not designed to be recycled. The government manipulation only chased one side of the equation for dat woke vote - subsidies to get the damned things up and running ASAP so to hell with the macro concerns of a sustained future of widespread wind turbine use.

As to the tech details, (large) blades are typically made of some sort of composite - short/small glass fibers pieces suspended in cured resin - and there is no viable way to reclaim the constituent materials to be reused in new blades, or much of anything. The manufacturing is generally a one way street, unlike products based on AL, copper, etc. What's even worse is that even chopped up (such as filler in road beds or construction materials) the material isn't very useful as it is general toxic to people (esp. the fibers in the dust) and the environment (the cured resin) and really nasty should it ever catch fire.

[GoCougs]

Oh, and don't forget that EVs use up tires 20% quicker due to extra weight and lower CG, and tires are a nasty nasty thing for the environment.

[r0tor]

Oh, and don't forget that EVs use up tires 20% quicker due to extra weight and lower CG, and tires are a nasty nasty thing for the environment.

Good thing there is now soybean oil tires

[CaminoRacer]

Most EV tires have lower wear and last longer than an average tire. Part of the quest to provide the most range as possible.

[giant_mtb]

Good thing there is now soybean oil tires

.......do you realize how much water it takes to farm soybeans. I really hope you're being facetious. 

[r0tor]

.......do you realize how much water it takes to farm soybeans. I really hope you're being facetious. 

I wonder why that is now a problem

[CaminoRacer]

This article is a bit overblown with the "debunking" stuff, but it does have some good graphics and info about lithium mining and reserves:

https://thedriven.io/2023/02/03/utter-bollocks-energy-analyst-debunks-toyotas-scarce-lithium-hybrid-myth/

Hoekstra points out that the Pratt's fundamental assumption, which is that lithium production will be scarce, is not what's actually happening in reality.

To show this, Hoekstra posted an image from BP's 2022 statistical review of world energy, which shows a massive expansion of global lithium production in just the last 5 years.

https://twitter.com/visaskn/status/1621450142141353985

USGS mineral commodity summary 2023 is out.
Here's a short take from to critical mineral output & reserve growth.
TLDR:  Mine production is growing but the reserve growth is far exceeding the demand. We are not running out of minerals.
https://t.co/k0oLh3dn9j

https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/1620549838298550276

And did you know we already know where to find lithium for almost ten billion full-EVs and we are constantly finding more resources while the ocean contains thousands of times more than the resources we know on land?

My analysis based on: https://t.co/FA6QcyUKpl

[CaminoRacer]

Basically, anything Toyota says about hybrids vs EVs should be taken with a massive grain of salt because they are the king of hybrids but very far behind on EVs. It's all just excuses from them.

Also, Toyota still uses NiMH batteries in their hybrids so they could be making hybrids and a bunch of EVs at the same time without having to ration lithium between the two.

[r0tor]

I'm personally more of a fan of widespread EV adoption after we are off of lithium/cobalt (only a matter of 5 or so years probably)... But there always needs to be the early adopters to drive the market

[Laconian]

I think Toyota's point is valid. Electric cars aren't the right fit for everyone's needs, and electrification can benefit every car today. It's hard to take issue with those statements. It's still no excuse for the pitiful hybrid and PHEV volume that they're mustering, so the messaging feels a teensy bit like sour grapes at the moment.

If they are really so utilitarian then they should abandon hydrogen and the Mirai like yesterday and use the billions saved to put out more goddamn PHEVs.

[GoCougs]

Jesus. That visual.

Li production has increased 11x since 1995. Today, there are ~16MM electric cars on the road and there are 1.5B cars in the world total, IOW 94x. So here's what the visual looks like extrapolated so for the next ~25 years. Note the real kicker is the proper comparison isn't the Y axis (~9.4x) but volume, which is ~100x. As it is often said, the problem isn't running out of Li (or copper, cobalt, gold, etc.), the problem is running out of environment (pretty much all of those mines are open pit). Now, of course, it's not to say ALL future EVs, would have Li-based batteries, but the visual tells a more than relevant story:

[CaminoRacer]

I think Toyota's point is valid. Electric cars aren't the right fit for everyone's needs, and electrification can benefit every car today. It's hard to take issue with those statements. It's still no excuse for the pitiful hybrid and PHEV volume that they're mustering, so the messaging feels a teensy bit like sour grapes at the moment.

If they are really so utilitarian then they should abandon hydrogen and the Mirai like yesterday and use the billions saved to put out more goddamn PHEVs.

I agree