Why New Car Sales Might Be Completely Screwed In A Few Years

[12,000 RPM]

http://jalopnik.com/why-new-car-sales-might-be-completely-screwed-in-a-few-1278851866

Seriously, cars from the last 10 years are awesome as far as refinement, safety, efficiency and value go. A 5 year old car today is a more reliable bet than a brand new car 15 years ago, aside from outliers (i.e. Toyota, Honda). Are the days of 16 million annual units over?

[veeman]

People will need cars in the US for years to come.  Most people don't live in NYC.

To get anywhere in the vast majority of places, having a car makes life 3X easier.  People will either buy used or get smaller cheaper cars.  A lot will depend on the price of gas.

[3.0L V6]

I could see the pickup truck market taking a hit, moreso than cars. Aside from the construction/commercial market, pickup trucks are more of a luxury item.

People need some form of transportation - pickups are high cost to purchase and operate. Also a truck's durability leads it to last longer - which will saturate the used truck market.

[Raza]

I am out of the new car market, as I find pretty much all of them undesirable for one reason or several others. 

[SVT666]

I'm out of the new car market because I would rather buy a 3 year old car for 50% of the original MSRP and let some other sucker take the massive depreciation hit.

[280Z Turbo]

I'm out of the new car market because I would rather buy a 3 year old car for 50% of the original MSRP and let some other sucker take the massive depreciation hit.

You can't do that anymore.

[Secret Chimp]

You can't do that anymore.

Used is still a better value over new, no matter what that specific difference actually is.

[Gotta-Qik-C7]

I haven't purchased a new car since 1998 and I doubt I'll ever buy new again!

[FlatBlackCaddy]

I am out of the new car market, as I find pretty much all of them undesirable for one reason or several others. 

I've been doing some precursory looking for a possible future purchase. It's hard to even come up with one, let alone 3-4 cars to evaluate. The new car market just doesn't offer much for people with more than very basic requirements.

[12,000 RPM]

People will need cars in the US for years to come.  Most people don't live in NYC.

To get anywhere in the vast majority of places, having a car makes life 3X easier.  People will either buy used or get smaller cheaper cars.  A lot will depend on the price of gas.

Whoa whoa whoa... do you have signatures turned off? I dont live in NYC anymore, and thus by default I have a car now.

I agree that most people need cars. The question is, does America need 16 million new cars a year, with cars as old as 20 years old still puttering away needing nothing but gas and maintenance, and cars 10 years old being more reliable today than many 20-30 year old cars brand new? Automakers need to adapt to this shift.

[GoCougs]

American never "needed" 16MM new cars a year, or anything close to it. Without loose consumer credit IMO the market would probably be half that size (at current prices).

[Lebowski]

"Need" has little to do w/ it ...

Yes, people will continue buying new cars and yes at a ~16m+ annual rate IMHO.  High age of fleet and strong used pricing are both good for new car sales.


Are those charts adjusted for inflation?  They don't appear to be, which if the case is a bit misleading as the text talks about inflation adjusted numbers.  Adjusting for inflation the increased price is not nearly as steep as those charts depict IMO, particularly when taking in other factors (such as that new cars last longer).

[MaxPower]

I was thinking about this earlier...has anything significant happened since I bought my 09 Legacy?  I don't think so, Just tech gizmos and improvements.

[MrH]

I was thinking about this earlier...has anything significant happened since I bought my 09 Legacy?  I don't think so, Just tech gizmos and improvements.

That couldn't be further from the truth.

[TBR]

As used cars become a nearer substitute for new cars, the price gap will narrow, changing the math for the used vs new decision.

What will be interesting is if something happens that makes a global used car market more feasible.

[Laconian]

The entrenched players would lobby hard against it...

[12,000 RPM]

As used cars become a nearer substitute for new cars, the price gap will narrow, changing the math for the used vs new decision.

What will be interesting is if something happens that makes a global used car market more feasible.

With transport fees and the associated risks, I'm not sure. It only works when shipping from first to third world, not first to first or third to first.

[TBR]

With transport fees and the associated risks, I'm not sure. It only works when shipping from first to third world, not first to first or third to first.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking.

[12,000 RPM]

The entrenched players would lobby hard against it...

I'm sure the horse lobby fought against the new fangled powered carriages

At the end of the day if people don't want to buy cars they won't....

[Onslaught]

Will they have parts to keep these reliable cars going? Many times after a cars been off the market for a few years some parts start becoming hard to get fast. More so then you would think.

Cars are far more "throw away" these days. With the high strength steel used you can't cut and splice panels like you could with cars from 5 years ago. So a hit that would just take a few days to fix for a bodyshop in the past will be a totaled car in the present and future.

[ifcar]

As used cars become a nearer substitute for new cars, the price gap will narrow, changing the math for the used vs new decision.

This. A market full of cheap used cars relies on people seeing an advantage to new cars, so if people don't buy new cars anymore, demand -- and accordingly price -- for used cars has a corresponding increase.

[12,000 RPM]

Will they have parts to keep these reliable cars going? Many times after a cars been off the market for a few years some parts start becoming hard to get fast. More so then you would think.

Cars are far more "throw away" these days. With the high strength steel used you can't cut and splice panels like you could with cars from 5 years ago. So a hit that would just take a few days to fix for a bodyshop in the past will be a totaled car in the present and future.

If they sell in high enough numbers, sure. I never had problems getting parts for my Accord/Maxima.

[Onslaught]

If they sell in high enough numbers, sure. I never had problems getting parts for my Accord/Maxima.

Some parts sure. But I find that many cars they quit making some of the small stuff. Things you only need when your car is hit. And then it can be a cluster fuck trying to get that one little thing that will keep your car from going back together.