New Jaguar must succeed or it's all over

[Galaxy]

Regarding Porsche: The profits they make with vehicles are quite spectacular, but in the last few years of being independent they made most of their money with financial transactions, in fact the German regulators were considering forcing Porsche to be regulated as an investment bank. Then their investments caved in on them.

[Colin]

Some interesting facts in this week's Autocar:

50% of all the profits in the global motor industry come from 12% of the sale volume, the "premium" sector. There are 13 so-called "premium" brands in the market, but 80 - 90% of the profits that they generate come from just three of those brands: BMW, Audi and Mercedes. Porsche is only still alive because of the Cayenne, which generates more than 50% of its sales volume and makes a huge contribution to its profitability. Given that, it is very clear that to survive, Jaguar simply have to have a success in the biggest parts of the premium sector, which are the " 3 series basher" and the SUV space.

If we go back to the start of this thread (before all the pages of ill-informed nonsense), then JLR is indeed on a high at present. They cannot build cars fast enough, and have added extra shifts to try to catch up. It is mostly down to the success of the Evoque which not only added 30% to the LR sales volume, but is a highly profitable product. Whilst every recent car in the JLR range is well regarded by many (if not some by some of the uninformed on here), the reality is that none of them compete in sectors where the total sales volume is big enough. The F Type was only ever going to be an image-enhancing car, and whilst it has met sales projections, the 8000 or so sold since it became available earlier this year is a drop in e very big ocean. Whilst the American data would suggest otherwise, in Europe, the XF has far higher levels of customer satisfaction than the German trio and the surveys also suggest it is more reliable. But even with the addition of the SportBrake, it is never going to beat the sales dominance of the E Class, 5 series and A6 on a global basis despite the excellence of the product. 

Can JLR do it with their new models? I hope so, but it will not be easy, and it may well take time. And they won't be the only ones trying. The article that contained the above  figures was actually an interview with the VP of Infiniti, who candidly admits that Nissan is not in the sector either, and that historically, Infiniti has been what he calls "Nissan Plus" and that they need to distance themselves far more from Nissan like Audi has from VW. Infiniti clearly have aspirations to achieve the same thing - in a way they have an even lower base to start from. In the UK they have just 8 dealers, and their total European sales last year did not reach 6000 cars (almost all of which were FX models), so they've got a long road to go down. I can't believe that Lexus won't be trying, too, though they seem still to be utterly focused on the US market (where they have been successful), and are making token efforts for Europe (where they are barely more successful than Infiniti).

It's not just the brands that are trying to climb up from humble roots, either. Look at Maserati with their Ghibli and the forthcoming SUV Levante. Their ambition is to quintuple sales from less than 10,000 units a year to 50,000. Many scoffed, but they've received over 20,000 orders already this year, and also cannot build Quattroportes fast enough (Thank you China!). Indeed, the UK sales date for the new model and the Ghibli have been put back as they cannot meet demand from elsewhere. 

Whatever, it is going to be fascinating to see how this all pans out.......... and I for one am looking forward to the additional new products that will be available to us. 

[MrH]

Your tone was way less hesitant in that thread. You were down right 90 yard play end zone cocky.

Meanwhile, in reality, they are already off the mark for the first two years of production. If you didn't think analysts weren't 100% spot on you wouldn't have cited them with such misplaced zest
It has everything to do with it because Jag is looking to take the same failed course as Cadillac with way more at stake , according to a more credible source than you.

He's right- companies that cater to enthusiasts exclusively have a harder time. If this wasn't the case Lotus wouldn't be in dire straits and Mazda wouldn't be on the ropes. Porsche would not have had to pull itself back from the brink with the Cayamera, and the whole Japanese sport coupe bubble wouldn't have popped and never returned. You can call whoever an idiot and act cocky but history disagrees with you here.

We already discussed this.  Usually cars don't hit peak sales until middle of their life cycle, and it's predicted the entire industry is slowly on the rise.  They're going to hit somewhere around 45k this year, which splits the difference of what you said you'd be surprised they'd hit, and what I said would it hit at one point.  There's still many years of sales ahead of it.  For some reason, you want to drag this out into just an argument on gut reactions instead of actually looking at some meaningful data.

I said they were pretty spot-on.  Enough so, that it's a better source than the volume the OEMs give out.  And it's a metric fuck-ton better than your gut reaction.

But most importantly, the ATS has nothing to do with this thread.  The article, which is questionable at best, didn't say what volume the new vehicle needs to sell at or what volume they predict.  Why you're bringing this up, the world will never know.

[TurboDan]

I haven't seen an SL in months, when I used to see half a dozen a day.

I see SLs daily, but I have seen an F-Type on the road a grand total of one time. Which is fine with me. I hope Jag maintains its terrible resale value. I would love to rock an F in a few years...

[TurboDan]

Sure you did... it was you and TurboDan defending the ATS, saying shit like "analysts predict X amount of volume and they are never wrong".

I don't see where I was "defending" the ATS. My case was that Cadillac has never had a steady lineup like the German competition and a car to compete with the 3er is a necessary piece of the puzzle. And despite all of the complaints about the touch screen, most people seem to agree that the ATS is a better car to drive than the F30, which was kind of the point. At the end of the day, Caddy needs a consistent lineup that competes with the Germans and the ATS is a natural fit for that battle. The ATS is the first American car to go against the 3er in, arguably, decades. And I think they did a kickass job with it. Fine, maybe the touch screen/CUE sucks. Fix it in another model year. Eventually, driving dynamics will win out. The 3er has a following because it encompasses intangibles that engage even the non-enthusiast driver. The ATS can do the same thing, especially as it improved over time. I hope Caddy doesn't give up like they did when the XLR didn't outdo the SL in its first generation. Caddy needs a steady lineup that improves over time. Period.

You, as I recall, were trying to make a case that Caddy should emulate Chrysler and sell boats like the 300.

Jag's problem is image. Current XK is kind of a poor man's Aston. XF looks like a Lexus with a Bentley grille. XJ looks good to me, but moves about 5K units a year in the US and prob not much more worldwide. Jag doesn't have the cash to come up with or risk redoing their lineup with an exciting + cohesive design language, so it will be OK if this thing looks totally different from the rest of their cars. I think they really need to do something bold, pretty much exactly like Land Rover did with the Evoque. If this thing looks boring nobody will buy it.

With this, I agree. Jag also needs an SUV. I hate to say it, but they need to badge engineer an Evoque and sell it as a Jag. It really wouldn't be a big deal. LR fans don't really care about the Evoque anyway (a lot of them don't care about the LR2 either... I know... so cutting that off at the head...).

A few years back, Audi was in the toilet and nobody cared about the 90. Now, 15 years later they're a beloved brand in the U.S. and everyone is buying A4s. A turnaround can happen with solid products that compete. There's no reason Jag can't do what Audi did. They just have to be smart and competitive without reinventing the wheel – arguably, the same thing Caddy should be doing.

Jag and Caddy have similar images they have to shed. They both are viewed as brands that cater to the older crowd and are unreliable. Both have improved their reliability exponentially and are featuring fresh designs. I have confidence in both brands if they stay the course and make competitive vehicles. Especially in the U.S. market, people are forgiving.

[TurboDan]

Unreliable cars are still pretty reliable these days.

Exactly. The gulf between the "most" and "least" reliable is pretty small. Back in the day, there was a massive difference. Today, it's practically nothing – almost statistically insignificant. There is not a single production vehicle sold in the U.S. today that I would hesitate in buying due to reliability.

[12,000 RPM]

I don't see where I was "defending" the ATS. My case was that Cadillac has never had a steady lineup like the German competition and a car to compete with the 3er is a necessary piece of the puzzle. And despite all of the complaints about the touch screen, most people seem to agree that the ATS is a better car to drive than the F30, which was kind of the point. At the end of the day, Caddy needs a consistent lineup that competes with the Germans and the ATS is a natural fit for that battle. The ATS is the first American car to go against the 3er in, arguably, decades. And I think they did a kickass job with it. Fine, maybe the touch screen/CUE sucks. Fix it in another model year. Eventually, driving dynamics will win out. The 3er has a following because it encompasses intangibles that engage even the non-enthusiast driver. The ATS can do the same thing, especially as it improved over time. I hope Caddy doesn't give up like they did when the XLR didn't outdo the SL in its first generation. Caddy needs a steady lineup that improves over time. Period.

You, as I recall, were trying to make a case that Caddy should emulate Chrysler and sell boats like the 300.

Still have me all wrong. I disagree that Caddy needs to compete with the Germans within the framework the Germans have laid out, which is proving to be less and less relevant as time goes on. Car companies are in the business of turning profits, not building automotive penises to wave around. A 3/5/7 lineup is irrelevant. You look at Lexus, the RX and ES make up 60-80% of the sales volume, and I would bet they make up a significant chunk of Lexus' profits too; but they do not fit in the classic 3/5/7 lineup. Lexus' 3/5/7 models don't really sell much. Infiniti's 5 fighter is a niche model volume wise and they dumped their 7 fighter. Etc. BMW & Mercedes can work in that framework because they have the brand cachet that enables them to sell pretty much anything. Caddy & Jag don't have that luxury.

And I never said Caddy should "build a boat". I said Caddy should create a new niche relevant to Americans today like Chrysler did when they came out with the 300. The 300 is not relevant today, but then neither is a 3 series fighter with a non German badge either. There is no reason to get an ATS over a 3 series.

With this, I agree. Jag also needs an SUV. I hate to say it, but they need to badge engineer an Evoque and sell it as a Jag. It really wouldn't be a big deal. LR fans don't really care about the Evoque anyway (a lot of them don't care about the LR2 either... I know... so cutting that off at the head...).

A few years back, Audi was in the toilet and nobody cared about the 90. Now, 15 years later they're a beloved brand in the U.S. and everyone is buying A4s. A turnaround can happen with solid products that compete. There's no reason Jag can't do what Audi did. They just have to be smart and competitive without reinventing the wheel – arguably, the same thing Caddy should be doing.

Jag and Caddy have similar images they have to shed. They both are viewed as brands that cater to the older crowd and are unreliable. Both have improved their reliability exponentially and are featuring fresh designs. I have confidence in both brands if they stay the course and make competitive vehicles. Especially in the U.S. market, people are forgiving.

I agree that Jag needs to reinvent itself as a young brand, but the opportunity that Audi had is not here for Jag/Caddy today. We are talking nearly 20 years. 20 years ago you could damn near count all the luxury cars on both hands (3,5,7,8,C,E,S,SL,M,Q,ES,GS,SC,LS). AWD was niche for example. There were no SUVs for example. There was a shitload of opportunity. Today, the 3 segment is at capacity and the 5/7 segments are shrinking in sales to irrelevance. Jag at its peak was a company about style, high performance and value. They need to get back to that in segments that are relevant to the 2013 consumer... a 3/5/7 lineup is not the way to do that.