Big lines forming for prospective Tesla Model 3 buyers

Started by Laconian, March 31, 2016, 11:56:25 AM

MrH

Just watched the video. Car looks great, I'm sure it will be amazing, but I'm not buying everything he said by any means.

Fremont factory once made 500k/year. True. Tesla does not have the infrastructure or processes to get anywhere near that by end of next year. The Model X launch shows us everything we need to know.

Also, making these at a profit at $35k I don't think is possible.

It says everything when he says deliveries should start end of next year. They have zero confidence in their ability to hit timelines and volumes. Suppliers cannot afford to capacitize for a huge program like this without certainty. Basically the second they think they're ready to go full steam ahead, they'll hit a supplier capacity constraint. Right when that one gets fixed, they'll hit another.
2023 Ford Lightning Lariat ER
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Previous: '02 Mazda Protege5, '08 Mazda Miata, '05 Toyota Tacoma, '09 Honda Element, '13 Subaru BRZ, '14 Hyundai Genesis R-Spec 5.0, '15 Toyota 4Runner SR5, '18 Honda Accord EX-L 2.0t, '01 Honda S2000, '20 Subaru Outback XT, '23 Chevy Bolt EUV

BimmerM3

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on April 01, 2016, 05:43:55 AM
I like it. The absence of grille is on purpose- shows it's not like all the other cars.

+1. I'm certain that was a very intentional design decision. I can see Elon sitting in a board room asking, "Why do we need a grill for a car without a radiator?"

Morris Minor

I have a Gen 3 Prius, & the center-mounted instrumentation works well. But, while on the Prius the cluster is mounted well forward, & so only a trivial eye deflection from the driver's center axis, that in the Model 3 is well aft of the windshield and needs a hard glance right.
⏤  '10 G37 | '21 CX-5 GT Reserve  ⏤
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Laconian

Imagine what this shit is going to do to the electric car market. All of a sudden, the Leaf looks like it's $5k too expensive.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

Laconian

Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

AutobahnSHO

Quote from: Laconian on April 01, 2016, 11:06:20 AM
Imagine what this shit is going to do to the electric car market. All of a sudden, the Leaf looks like it's $5k too expensive.

I really do want to go electric. Someday. My current commute is:
Drive to physical training, 2.5miles. Drive home.
Drive to work, 2miles, drive home for lunch.
Drive back to work, drive home.
Will

2o6

Quote from: Laconian on April 01, 2016, 11:06:20 AM
Imagine what this shit is going to do to the electric car market. All of a sudden, the Leaf looks like it's $5k too expensive.


The The Chevy Bolt has about the same range and will be 5-10k cheaper.


And will likely stay together longer and has the support of a real dealer network.





2o6

With that said, it's a really pretty car and I want one.

2o6

This car is sort of an "iPhone" a pretty good device but technically not that different than what other manufacturers are doing.



But the packaging and product make it look more expensive and extravagant than it really is.



Cookie Monster

The more I see the exterior, the more I like it.

The more I see the interior, the less I like it.


:lol:
RWD > FWD
President of the "I survived the Volvo S80 Thread" Club
2007 Mazda MX-5 | 1999 Honda Nighthawk 750 | 1989 Volvo 240 | 1991 Toyota 4Runner | 2006 Honda CBR600F4i | 2015 Yamaha FJ-09 | 1999 Honda CBR600F4 | 2009 Yamaha WR250X | 1985 Mazda RX-7 | 2000 Yamaha YZ426F | 2006 Yamaha FZ1 | 2002 Honda CBR954RR | 1996 Subaru Outback | 2018 Subaru Crosstrek | 1986 Toyota MR2
Quote from: 68_427 on November 27, 2016, 07:43:14 AM
Or order from fortune auto and when lyft rider asks why your car feels bumpy you can show them the dyno curve
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Laconian

Quote from: AutobahnSHO on April 01, 2016, 11:15:19 AM
I really do want to go electric. Someday. My current commute is:
Drive to physical training, 2.5miles. Drive home.
Drive to work, 2miles, drive home for lunch.
Drive back to work, drive home.

Actually, that's like the worst case for electric. You're barely scratching the surface of that battery capcity. Just burn some dinosaurs, it's not like an ICE car burns much fuel to go 6 miles. ;)
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

Cookie Monster

Quote from: Laconian on April 01, 2016, 11:26:17 AM
Actually, that's like the worst case for electric. You're barely scratching the surface of that battery capcity. Just burn some dinosaurs, it's not like an ICE car burns much fuel to go 6 miles. ;)

Or just ride a bicycle. :huh:
RWD > FWD
President of the "I survived the Volvo S80 Thread" Club
2007 Mazda MX-5 | 1999 Honda Nighthawk 750 | 1989 Volvo 240 | 1991 Toyota 4Runner | 2006 Honda CBR600F4i | 2015 Yamaha FJ-09 | 1999 Honda CBR600F4 | 2009 Yamaha WR250X | 1985 Mazda RX-7 | 2000 Yamaha YZ426F | 2006 Yamaha FZ1 | 2002 Honda CBR954RR | 1996 Subaru Outback | 2018 Subaru Crosstrek | 1986 Toyota MR2
Quote from: 68_427 on November 27, 2016, 07:43:14 AM
Or order from fortune auto and when lyft rider asks why your car feels bumpy you can show them the dyno curve
1 3 5
├┼┤
2 4 R

ifcar

Quote from: 2o6 on April 01, 2016, 11:17:33 AM

The The Chevy Bolt has about the same range and will be 5-10k cheaper.


And will likely stay together longer and has the support of a real dealer network.


The Bolt base price is $37,500 as opposed to $35,000. And while the Tesla can be optioned up to be more expensive, I believe that would be by adding things you can't get on the Chevrolet.

SJ_GTI

Quote from: Laconian on April 01, 2016, 11:26:17 AM
Actually, that's like the worst case for electric. You're barely scratching the surface of that battery capcity. Just burn some dinosaurs, it's not like an ICE car burns much fuel to go 6 miles. ;)

Fuel efficiency drops a ton when you don't drive much. I am not going to trade in my car "just because" but I think an electric car is most likely to be my next car. My commute is short (about 5.7 miles each way). With an electric car I would never have to go to a gas station again.

The problem for myself is that I also want a car that is at least somewhat fun to drive. Most of the mainstream brands are making their electric cars FWD econo-cars. To me the big draw to Tesla would be that is a good, fun car that is electric.

If the Chevy Bolt was AWD (or RWD) and had a suspension that was designed more for fun than for comfort it would probably also be a consideration. Even a Volt/Spark or Leaf would be fine for my needs. But they are all FWD, which I do not want.

CaminoRacer

2020 BMW 330i, 1969 El Camino, 2017 Bolt EV

SJ_GTI

Quote from: Cookie Monster on April 01, 2016, 11:34:40 AM
Or just ride a bicycle. :huh:

I cannot speak for him, but riding a bike would sometimes be possible for me, but it would always be a hassle. Out here in the suburbs there are not many sidewalks and there are almost no bike lanes. There is no easy way to get from my house to my job without riding on roads that have little or no shoulder, yet those roads also have speed limits of 45-50 MPH. Not great for biking.

GoCougs

Quote from: 2o6 on April 01, 2016, 11:22:04 AM
This car is sort of an "iPhone" a pretty good device but technically not that different than what other manufacturers are doing.



But the packaging and product make it look more expensive and extravagant than it really is.




The comparison to Apple is an extremely apt one. A Nissan Model S or Dodge Model X would be DOA.

The real genius of Tesla "packaging" is the contrived notion of the thing and the government manipulation. It's brilliant. Can't wait till it all collapses though. The irrational exuberance is bound to suck resources and attention from improving IC-powered vehicles.

SJ_GTI

Quote from: GoCougs on April 01, 2016, 11:54:53 AM
The comparison to Apple is an extremely apt one. A Nissan Model S or Dodge Model X would be DOA.

The real genius of Tesla "packaging" is the contrived notion of the thing and the government manipulation. It's brilliant. Can't wait till it all collapses though. The irrational exuberance is bound to suck resources and attention from improving IC-powered vehicles.

I mean, certainly I think being "hip" is part of the draw for some people, but it is, legitimately, the only electric car that I have seen that could replace a sport sedan. For me, that is the big draw. I couldn't care less if it was made by GM, Toyota, or VW. I just would like a car that is fun to drive, and from my POV an electric car seems more practical than an ICE car.

Raza

1. The front end looks ridiculous.
2. What the hell is a Chevrolet Bolt?  I thought it was a Volt.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
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Quote from: the Teuton on October 05, 2009, 03:53:18 PMIt's impossible to argue with Raza. He wins. Period. End of discussion.

SJ_GTI

Quote from: Raza  on April 01, 2016, 12:29:24 PM
1. The front end looks ridiculous.
2. What the hell is a Chevrolet Bolt?  I thought it was a Volt.

Bolt is the new all-electric car from Chevy. ~200 mile range.

Concept


Production


93JC

Quote from: Cookie Monster on April 01, 2016, 11:22:54 AM
The more I see the exterior, the more I like it.

The more I see the interior, the less I like it.

Me too. At first glance the exterior gave off too many BMW 3 GT vibes, but the more I look at it the more I like it. The beltline seems  lower, which (again, at first glance) gave the impression of the car being a little too bulbous, but I look at it again and it look fairly handsome. I don't have a problem with the idea of the lack of a grille (the Model S doesn't really have one either, after all, it's just a painted fascia piece meant to emulate a grille), but the execution of it is not great. It looks like a car that was meant to have a grille but they filled it in instead. The front still looks a weird.

The interior, on the other hand, is totally 'meh'. I despise the iPad. It looks tacked on, and I'd wager it would be awful to use. This alone would be a deal-breaker. The rest of the interior itself is just... 'meh'. If you get all hot and bothered by minimalism and think it's 'chic' then I'm sure it would float your boat. To me it looks rather bleak and dour. It's like an Apple Store.

This is also a serious problem:

https://youtu.be/16SWVS56aZU?t=3m24s

That trunk opening is not only preposterously small but it looks like anyone above four feet in height would have to duck under the trunk lid to get to it.

12,000 RPM

Jalop spoke about that

Should have been a hatchback....
Protecctor of the Atmospheric Engine #TheyLiedToUs

Cookie Monster

Quote from: 93JC on April 01, 2016, 12:49:44 PM
Me too. At first glance the exterior gave off too many BMW 3 GT vibes, but the more I look at it the more I like it. The beltline seems  lower, which (again, at first glance) gave the impression of the car being a little too bulbous, but I look at it again and it look fairly handsome. I don't have a problem with the idea of the lack of a grille (the Model S doesn't really have one either, after all, it's just a painted fascia piece meant to emulate a grille), but the execution of it is not great. It looks like a car that was meant to have a grille but they filled it in instead. The front still looks a weird.

The interior, on the other hand, is totally 'meh'. I despise the iPad. It looks tacked on, and I'd wager it would be awful to use. This alone would be a deal-breaker. The rest of the interior itself is just... 'meh'. If you get all hot and bothered by minimalism and think it's 'chic' then I'm sure it would float your boat. To me it looks rather bleak and dour. It's like an Apple Store.

This is also a serious problem:

https://youtu.be/16SWVS56aZU?t=3m24s

That trunk opening is not only preposterously small but it looks like anyone above four feet in height would have to duck under the trunk lid to get to it.

Yikes, that looks terrible. Can't believe they designed it that way. :hammerhead:
RWD > FWD
President of the "I survived the Volvo S80 Thread" Club
2007 Mazda MX-5 | 1999 Honda Nighthawk 750 | 1989 Volvo 240 | 1991 Toyota 4Runner | 2006 Honda CBR600F4i | 2015 Yamaha FJ-09 | 1999 Honda CBR600F4 | 2009 Yamaha WR250X | 1985 Mazda RX-7 | 2000 Yamaha YZ426F | 2006 Yamaha FZ1 | 2002 Honda CBR954RR | 1996 Subaru Outback | 2018 Subaru Crosstrek | 1986 Toyota MR2
Quote from: 68_427 on November 27, 2016, 07:43:14 AM
Or order from fortune auto and when lyft rider asks why your car feels bumpy you can show them the dyno curve
1 3 5
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2 4 R

Laconian

That's awful. As bad as the Mini convertibles - just a horizontal slot.
Kia EV6 GT-Line / MX-5 RF 6MT

Cookie Monster

If they didn't hinge it so far up the C-pillar it wouldn't at least open up so weirdly, making you have to duck underneath to get stuff out of the trunk...
RWD > FWD
President of the "I survived the Volvo S80 Thread" Club
2007 Mazda MX-5 | 1999 Honda Nighthawk 750 | 1989 Volvo 240 | 1991 Toyota 4Runner | 2006 Honda CBR600F4i | 2015 Yamaha FJ-09 | 1999 Honda CBR600F4 | 2009 Yamaha WR250X | 1985 Mazda RX-7 | 2000 Yamaha YZ426F | 2006 Yamaha FZ1 | 2002 Honda CBR954RR | 1996 Subaru Outback | 2018 Subaru Crosstrek | 1986 Toyota MR2
Quote from: 68_427 on November 27, 2016, 07:43:14 AM
Or order from fortune auto and when lyft rider asks why your car feels bumpy you can show them the dyno curve
1 3 5
├┼┤
2 4 R

SJ_GTI

Would definitely prefer a hatchback (similar to the Model S) myself, but it seems fine. But maybe I don't use my trunk as some people.  :huh:

2o6

Body rigidity has to come from somewhere. The glass roof looks like it's one piece from the base of the a pillar to the start of the trunk.

Raza

Quote from: SJ_GTI on April 01, 2016, 12:34:41 PM
Bolt is the new all-electric car from Chevy. ~200 mile range.

Concept


Production


Hmm.  That's ugly. 
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
If you can read this, you're too close


2006 BMW Z4 3.0i
http://accelerationtherapy.squarespace.com/   @accelerationdoc
Quote from: the Teuton on October 05, 2009, 03:53:18 PMIt's impossible to argue with Raza. He wins. Period. End of discussion.

SJ_GTI

Quote from: Raza  on April 01, 2016, 02:17:50 PM
Hmm.  That's ugly.

Its "functional."  :lol:

I agree, but I could get over the looks if it was fun to drive.