OK, now I am kind of panicking. Next 911 might not have manual option

[Raza]

This doesn't make any sense

If these automated cars cannot operate on the roads with human driven cars, then all the human driven cars have to come off the road a lot faster than the "natural course of things" will allow. If autonomous cars can operate with human driven cars on the same roads then your whole fatalist conclusion falls apart. So which is it? 

Who said can't?  And no, it doesn't fall apart if they can operate with driven cars as well.  For the same reason people who say "When I was young, we didn't have seatbelts and we survived" are ridiculed.  Just because something can be done safely doesn't mean the government is going to continue to allow us to do it. 

That is how much it will cost, based on average new car prices, to replace all the cars on the road. And that is conservative because a lot of the 300 million vehicles on the road are commercial vehicles.

This number seems dubious.  How much it will cost whom?  The total cost of millions of people gradually changing over? 

Though I will say I didn't think about commercial vehicles.  I'll have to get back to you on that.

You argue that human driven cars on the road will become illegal. OK, not exactly confiscation, but largely the same result since all human driven cars will largely become worthless under the passage of said law.

Not exactly illegal.  I posited a ban or effective ban on the production and sale of new cars.  I'm sure a few would stick around as second cars, museum pieces, heirlooms, and collector cars.  Eventually the manually driven cars that are on the road will be the only ones available at a certain date.
 

You still haven't demonstrated exactly how this will all play out.

So?

Where is the political will?

It'll get there when the money gets behind automated cars.  When GM and Ford start lobbying that this is the way forward and then some liberal weenies and conservative crusaders jump in screaming "think of the children!", the political will will be there. 

Where is the money?

This money you speak of is dubious.

Where is the precedent?

Cigarettes.  Manual transmissions.

Can you give us some kind of ball park timeline?

No.

You are just projecting your control issues onto this issue and hoping nobody asks for details. It's silly. Even if human driven cars are "outlawed", just by pure logistics it probably won't happen in our lifetimes.

When did I say it was going to happen in our lifetimes?  In fact, in the past, I've explicitly stated it won't happen in our lifetime because of the legal liability issues alone. 

[Raza]

It's too expensive to switch all cars at once. Autonomous cars have to be able to function with human driven vehicles, or they'll never make it. Everyone is designing based on that assumption so far.

I agree; which is why I said they'll be phased out over time.  Sporty doesn't seem to understand that "over time" means "not all at once".  Cars--basically any car--eventually, through time, becomes impracticable to keep running.  When that happens, as time goes on, and there are fewer and fewer, if any, manually driven cars on the market, real cars will start to die off. 

[12,000 RPM]

So many holes. Cigarettes and manual transmissions are still legal, there is no ban on them. Most people don't buy new cars so again without some kind of infeasible ban or mass confiscation the transition will take at least 20 years based on optimistic sales figures. Etc. etc. There are just so many huge flaming hoops for the country to jump through for your nightmare to become a reality we will see any time soon. W/e man.

[Raza]

So many holes. Cigarettes and manual transmissions are still legal, there is no ban on them. Most people don't buy new cars so again without some kind of infeasible ban or mass confiscation the transition will take at least 20 years based on optimistic sales figures. Etc. etc. There are just so many huge flaming hoops for the country to jump through for your nightmare to become a reality we will see any time soon. W/e man.

So all of a sudden the champion of automated cars says it won't happen? 

[12,000 RPM]

So all of a sudden the champion of automated cars says it won't happen?

Bro I have always said the same thing. There are a lot of upsides to autonomous cars, but they are not going to happen in any big way any time soon, for a lot of pretty obvious and huge reasons. Similarly the idea that human driven cars will be outlawed is.... far fetched, to be nice. I have never said autonomous cars will happen any time soon

[Laconian]

I should bookmark that post so I can unearth it for laughs after the machines have taken over.

Because, seriously, autonomous cars are already among us. redshift was probably taunting us gassers from his smartphone while his Tesla was automatically dealing with the hwy 101 slog.

[GoCougs]

Welp, I work with machine vision technology - optical, laser, 2D and 3D  ("autonomous" cars might be using other tech such as radar or whatever but same difference) - and factory automation in general and I'm definitely in the "not in our lifetimes" camp, esp. once I throw in a bit of my process engineering experience. It's easy to make a process work at the 98th percentile, but that is a billion miles away from being a viable process (just think if the airline industry had a 98% success record - you'd have ~600 airline crashes a day).

We're only going to have viable autonomous cars with mammoth (catastrophic, really) upgrades to road infrastructure to increase process performance and minimize variation (standardized road infrastructure, including mitigation techniques for weather, such as 100% lighted/fenced roads, etc.). I'm sure Apple, Google, etc., like the PR and get a good bump out of giving their hotshot folks a project, but autonomous cars are right up there much of "new" tech these days - from Musk's Hyperloop to Bezos's "everyone a chance to fly in space" to the laughable boondoggle of Google's Makani - it's sorta interesting but simply not viable, and everyone knows it.

Even if viable, it yet be another example of Big Tech's complicitness in the violations of rights of WtP (you're not gonna have autonomous cars without the network being regulated by government), so best to thank your gods for unanswered prayers.

[AutobahnSHO]

Welp, I work with machine vision technology - optical, laser, 2D and 3D  ("autonomous" cars might be using other tech such as radar or whatever but same difference) - and factory automation in general and I'm definitely in the "not in our lifetimes" camp, esp. once I throw in a bit of my process engineering experience. It's easy to make a process work at the 98th percentile, but that is a billion miles away from being a viable process (just think if the airline industry had a 98% success record - you'd have ~600 airline crashes a day).

We're only going to have viable autonomous cars with mammoth (catastrophic, really) upgrades to road infrastructure to increase process performance and minimize variation (standardized road infrastructure, including mitigation techniques for weather, such as 100% lighted/fenced roads, etc.). I'm sure Apple, Google, etc., like the PR and get a good bump out of giving their hotshot folks a project, but autonomous cars are right up there much of "new" tech these days - from Musk's Hyperloop to Bezos's "everyone a chance to fly in space" to the laughable boondoggle of Google's Makani - it's sorta interesting but simply not viable, and everyone knows it.

Even if viable, it yet be another example of Big Tech's complicitness in the violations of rights of WtP (you're not gonna have autonomous cars without the network being regulated by government), so best to thank your gods for unanswered prayers.

LOLOLOLOLOL

Guess you missed the car that can drive in pitch black, and the other cars that are already driving around without issues.

[12,000 RPM]

LOLOLOLOLOL

Guess you missed the car that can drive in pitch black, and the other cars that are already driving around without issues.

These are just some of the millions of scenarios cars encounter. Autonomous cars havent figured out how to deal with pedestrians or merging aggression yet. But computer learning/AI can catch up pretty quick. It's the physical/financial/legal hurdles and just straight up logistics. Raza is TEARFULLY SCREAMING that the laws banning human driven cars are just around the corner, but as far as I know US law doesn't even allow the purchase or sale of fully autonomous cars yet lmao. We would need to cross that hurdle first, and while I do see that being crossed, as Raza himself states regularly the state of the tech is not up to the level of a texting teen or constipated opoid and alcohol addicted ex steel worker. Our lawmakers are pretty dumb but not that dumb. So this idea that all these issues will magically disappear anytime soon is naive or alarmist depending on your view. We were supposed to have flying cars by now remember?

[SJ_GTI]

I for one welcome our new autonomously driven overlords. 

[RomanChariot]

I for one welcome our new autonomously driven overlords. 

At least autonomous overlords would be designed to process logic as opposed to our current overlords.

[Raza]

These are just some of the millions of scenarios cars encounter. Autonomous cars havent figured out how to deal with pedestrians or merging aggression yet. But computer learning/AI can catch up pretty quick. It's the physical/financial/legal hurdles and just straight up logistics. Raza is TEARFULLY SCREAMING that the laws banning human driven cars are just around the corner, but as far as I know US law doesn't even allow the purchase or sale of fully autonomous cars yet lmao. We would need to cross that hurdle first, and while I do see that being crossed, as Raza himself states regularly the state of the tech is not up to the level of a texting teen or constipated opoid and alcohol addicted ex steel worker. Our lawmakers are pretty dumb but not that dumb. So this idea that all these issues will magically disappear anytime soon is naive or alarmist depending on your view. We were supposed to have flying cars by now remember?

When did I say right around the corner?  Again, you're putting words into my mouth. 

[Payman]

Welp, I work with machine vision technology - optical, laser, 2D and 3D  ("autonomous" cars might be using other tech such as radar or whatever but same difference) - and factory automation in general and I'm definitely in the "not in our lifetimes" camp, esp. once I throw in a bit of my process engineering experience. It's easy to make a process work at the 98th percentile, but that is a billion miles away from being a viable process (just think if the airline industry had a 98% success record - you'd have ~600 airline crashes a day).

We're only going to have viable autonomous cars with mammoth (catastrophic, really) upgrades to road infrastructure to increase process performance and minimize variation (standardized road infrastructure, including mitigation techniques for weather, such as 100% lighted/fenced roads, etc.). I'm sure Apple, Google, etc., like the PR and get a good bump out of giving their hotshot folks a project, but autonomous cars are right up there much of "new" tech these days - from Musk's Hyperloop to Bezos's "everyone a chance to fly in space" to the laughable boondoggle of Google's Makani - it's sorta interesting but simply not viable, and everyone knows it.

Even if viable, it yet be another example of Big Tech's complicitness in the violations of rights of WtP (you're not gonna have autonomous cars without the network being regulated by government), so best to thank your gods for unanswered prayers.

I agree with this. The tech is there, but when you're talking hundreds of millions of passenger miles every year, it still has a long way to go. Then, factor in infrastructure and the whole insurance/litigation issues, and I'm not convinced the revolution will happen for a long time yet. The first controlled heavier than air flight took place in 1903, but it took 50-60 years for safe and reliable air travel to replace trains and ocean liners.

[AutobahnSHO]

The first controlled heavier than air flight took place in 1903, but it took 50-60 years for safe and reliable air travel to replace trains and ocean liners.

But 30yrs ago we barely had electronic calculators and look what we have now.  The tech is getting better at an exponential rate, and the people glued to their phone screens want whatever the new toy is, the law will for sure take awhile to catch up

BUT the fact that all the major automakers now see where the market will head is going to be a huge boost in legislation. All of the car lobbies working together are going to crush anyone who opposes self-driving cars.   

I don't see current cars becoming illegal for another long while after that though.

[12,000 RPM]

When did I say right around the corner?  Again, you're putting words into my mouth.

You aren't speaking in specifics on anything, so I'm not surprised.

If you don't think it's coming any time soon, what are you so freaked out about? Do you think any of this will happen in your lifetime?

[Raza]

You aren't speaking in specifics on anything, so I'm not surprised.

If you don't think it's coming any time soon, what are you so freaked out about?

Who's freaked out?  I'm disappointed in the culture that wants this to happen.  You're now putting words and emotions into my mouth.  Stop doing that. 

Do you think any of this will happen in your lifetime?

Asked and answered. 

[GoCougs]

I agree with this. The tech is there, but when you're talking hundreds of millions of passenger miles every year, it still has a long way to go. Then, factor in infrastructure and the whole insurance/litigation issues, and I'm not convinced the revolution will happen for a long time yet. The first controlled heavier than air flight took place in 1903, but it took 50-60 years for safe and reliable air travel to replace trains and ocean liners.

So not only did it take many decades for passenger planes to get vastly better, but look at the mammoth infrastructure that allows many thousands of jetliners to fly about the US daily - the airports, air traffic control, the radar and comm systems, and all of that standardized across many many government entities.

Like flying cars and boat cars and electric cars, self-driving cars answer a question no one is materially asking. Sure, it's sorta interesting, sure it's sorta useful, but just like flying/boat/electric cars, on any sort of wide scale, it just isn't that useful or viable.

[AutobahnSHO]

So not only did it take many decades for passenger planes to get vastly better, but look at the mammoth infrastructure that allows many thousands of jetliners to fly about the US daily - the airports, air traffic control, the radar and comm systems, and all of that standardized across many many government entities.

Like flying cars and boat cars and electric cars, self-driving cars answer a question no one is materially asking. Sure, it's sorta interesting, sure it's sorta useful, but just like flying/boat/electric cars, on any sort of wide scale, it just isn't that useful or viable.

LOL No. The majority of the US would love to be able to get in, punch a destination, and play on their phone until they get there.  People who enjoy driving are a minority. Most do it because they "have to".

[12,000 RPM]

LOL No. The majority of the US would love to be able to get in, punch a destination, and play on their phone until they get there.  People who enjoy driving are a minority. Most do it because they "have to".

Not really....

http://www.jdpower.com/cars/articles/car-news/study-says-minority-drivers-want-autonomous-cars

At least not with the current state of technology. And there will always be holdouts. My FIL's FIL still refuses to get on a plane.

I agree most people hate driving, but they trust a computer to drive even less (despite being demonstrably worse in a lot of conditions)

[MrH]

Not really....

http://www.jdpower.com/cars/articles/car-news/study-says-minority-drivers-want-autonomous-cars

At least not with the current state of technology. And there will always be holdouts. My FIL's FIL still refuses to get on a plane.

I agree most people hate driving, but they trust a computer to drive even less (despite being demonstrably worse in a lot of conditions)

Didn't know you were loosely related to r0tor.

[12,000 RPM]

Didn't know you were loosely related to r0tor.

FIL² is well into his 70s. rot0r is our age... he just espoused the ideology of a 70+ year old down and out ex factory worker.

[AutobahnSHO]

Not really....

http://www.jdpower.com/cars/articles/car-news/study-says-minority-drivers-want-autonomous-cars

psssh that article is way old. People said they didn't want touchscreen anythings a ways back. Before that they complained automobiles scared their horses.

[12,000 RPM]

psssh that article is way old. People said they didn't want touchscreen anythings a ways back. Before that they complained automobiles scared their horses.

Here's a more recent one with the same results.

http://newsroom.aaa.com/2016/03/three-quarters-of-americans-afraid-to-ride-in-a-self-driving-vehicle/

I get the feeling a lot of people with shit like adaptive cruise control and the like don't even know how to use it. My mom doesn't know how to configure regular cruise control and she has been driving for 25+ years. There are way too many hurdles

[Payman]

We still have GPS's that run idiots into lakes.

[veeman]

I can see in our lifetimes (well at least the young ones on here), a sort of mixture of self-driving cars with a driver having to be in the driver seat at all times.  Maybe similar to what airplanes have now.  There's autopilot but you still need a pilot at all times in the cockpit.  So I see a human getting in their car and putting in a destination in their GPS.  Then the human gets out of the parking lot and gets on the main road at which time they engage autopilot.  Once they near their destination, they have to disengage autopilot and park their car.  If something malfunctions during their ride, a warning buzzer and lights will alert the driver that they must disengage autopilot.  Accidents will still happen but at a greatly reduced rate.  100% is not possible with any engineered function.  A certain failure rate (whatever percentage) is always present in even the most automated tightly controlled mechanized processes.

[AutobahnSHO]

I can see in our lifetimes (well at least the young ones on here), a sort of mixture of self-driving cars with a driver having to be in the driver seat at all times.  Maybe similar to what airplanes have now.  There's autopilot but you still need a pilot at all times in the cockpit.  So I see a human getting in their car and putting in a destination in their GPS.  Then the human gets out of the parking lot and gets on the main road at which time they engage autopilot.  Once they near their destination, they have to disengage autopilot and park their car.  If something malfunctions during their ride, a warning buzzer and lights will alert the driver that they must disengage autopilot.  Accidents will still happen but at a greatly reduced rate.  100% is not possible with any engineered function.  A certain failure rate (whatever percentage) is always present in even the most automated tightly controlled mechanized processes.

That's probably how it will start out. As people get more comfortable with letting the car drive it will be more and more hands-off until we get to Will Smith hearing "You drove MANUALLY?!?! Are you CRAZY?!?!"     (I, Robot)

PS- I, Robot was originally Isaac Asimov (books are way better than the movie!!) who also wrote a story in the 50s/60s about self-driving cars at the retirement home. Since the brains are "alive" they don't get thrown out but allowed to die peacefully at an old farm....

[giant_mtb]

I would almost be fine with just main roads (freeways/expressways) being automated.  It would make long distance drives somewhat easier and wouldn't infringe on my god given American Dream right to drive a car.

[AutobahnSHO]

I would almost be fine with just main roads (freeways/expressways) being automated.  It would make long distance drives somewhat easier and wouldn't infringe on my god given American Dream right to drive a car.

+1

People could still take surface roads if they're scared of computer cars.

[AutobahnSHO]

OH also, big addition to the system will be Dynamic Speed Limits. Wyoming has them on the interstate- LED speed limit signs. Depending on conditions on particular stretches, they lower the usual 75mph to whatever is appropriate for that section.

Google maps shows me yellow or red sections of road based on feedback from other maps users, showing where congestion is.   The computer cars will have to be tied into something similar, so they can adjust speed accordingly, plus the radars and cameras etc...

[giant_mtb]

+1

People could still take surface roads if they're scared of computer cars.

Even around here where our biggest road is a 15 mile stretch of 55mph 4-lane highway connecting three towns, I choose back roads. Unless I'm in a hurry, I rarely take the highway.