Tesla

[Soup DeVille]

I kinda liked cable operated mirrors for the same reasons; adjustability by feel (as imprecise as it often was).

[SJ_GTI]

Model 3 production supposedly up to 2,000 a week.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/03/news/companies/tesla-model-3-production/index.html

Tesla is producing about 2,000 of its Model 3 sedans a week.

That's a huge jump from three months ago, but still short of its promised target.

And because production has ramped up, Tesla said it won't need to sell more stock to raise cash. That's a relief to investors, who worried that Tesla would face a cash crunch due to the Model 3's production problems. Moody's downgraded it further into junk bond status last week and warned more downgrades were possible.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) rose 2.5% in early trading on the news.

The company said it produced 2,020 of its first mass market car in the last seven days. It had promised to produce 2,500 a week by the end of the first quarter, which ended Saturday.

It built 9,766 of the Model 3's during the quarter, up about 300% from the fourth quarter.

Despite falling short of the 2,500 goal, the company still expects to raise production to 5,000 Model 3's week in the next three months.

[MrH]

Running seven days. And that number looks skewed. Production actually dipped quite a bit leading up to it. It reads a lot like they built up a lot of work in process previously to try and show a good week.

Even if they are truly at 2,000 per week steady state, they're 20% off target from the 2017 Q4 estimate and 60% off the Q3 2017 estimate. And they're doing this all by throwing head count at the problem (S and X volume is down as they borrow labor to help on model 3).

I think they're in serious trouble. Even if they hit their target rate, the vehicle is still not profitable. Elon tweeting jokes about going bankrupt on April fool's is not a good look. Neither is the constant turn over going on there.

[12,000 RPM]

More stock tanking propaganda</rotor>

[Morris Minor]

Elon tweeting jokes about going bankrupt on April fool's is not a good look.

That was infantile IMO.

[12,000 RPM]

It keeps getting worse!!!

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/04/awful-lot-tesla-model-3-owners-complaining-cars-mysteriously-conked/

[Submariner]

It keeps getting worse!!!

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/04/awful-lot-tesla-model-3-owners-complaining-cars-mysteriously-conked/

Oh dear.

[12,000 RPM]

"Why wouldn't you want your car to stall in the middle of traffic every now and then? It's good to learn emergency management and Frogger skills" - Tave/r0tor

[Submariner]

Tesla is the closest to getting the electric car right, in concept, but between endless production issues and Model 3's just not working, the picture is getting dimmer by the day for them. 

Maybe Musk needs to put a Model 3 into low earth orbit.

[giant_mtb]

Keep your eyes peeled for Tesla owners getting in and out of their cars on the side of the road.

[12,000 RPM]

Well, I guess it depends on how we define getting the electric car right. GM has been making electric cars that don't strand its occupants for 20 years. But nobody has managed to concoct Elon's magic hype elixir. And we have come to a point in society where people would basically rather die than admit to having been wrong, so I imagine Tesla to be OK for a few more years.

[12,000 RPM]

Keep your eyes peeled for Tesla owners getting in and out of their cars on the side of the road.

From what the article says they will be lucky if they can get to the side of the road. I'm keeping my eyes peeled for Teslas in the middle of the road.

[Soup DeVille]

Tesla is the closest to getting the electric car right, in concept, but between endless production issues and Model 3's just not working, the picture is getting dimmer by the day for them. 

Maybe Musk needs to put a Model 3 into low earth orbit.

No, GM is making a far more practical and sustainable product.

[12,000 RPM]

The problem is success comes increasingly from filling desire over need. The Bolt is an objectively better car than the Model 3 by several orders of magnitude... but selling a ~$35K+ car is an increasingly right brain/full groin endeavor.

It will be interesting to see if people start pulling deposits... that could actually be a catalyst for serious problems for Tesla

[SJ_GTI]

Honestly if the Bolt was AWD I'd probably prefer it to the Model 3. I like the hatchback body style and interior layout looks nicer IMHO. Just not sure I could bring myself to buy a FWD car.

[MX793]

No, GM is making a far more practical and sustainable product.

But it doesn't say "TESLA" on it, and therefore it's a nameless also-ran.

[MrH]

Well, I guess it depends on how we define getting the electric car right. GM has been making electric cars that don't strand its occupants for 20 years. But nobody has managed to concoct Elon's magic hype elixir. And we have come to a point in society where people would basically rather die than admit to having been wrong, so I imagine Tesla to be OK for a few more years.

There's no way they continue a few more years. They're hemorrhaging cash. Their total volume from Q4 17 to Q1 18 is actually flat. They made more model 3 but less S and X.  And their profitability went down. They're not hitting consistent production numbers at all.

They already downgraded their bond ratings. They're running out of cash and other prople's money is drying up. They're going to have to do another funding round.

They're so cash strapped that the aging Model S and X development is stopping. Now the only thing they make that is profitable has saturated the market and looking long in the tooth.

This ends with Tesla getting bought out for cheap.

[Soup DeVille]

But it doesn't say "TESLA" on it, and therefore it's a nameless also-ran.

Marketing hype only lasts so long.

[Galaxy]

But nobody has managed to concoct Elon's magic hype elixir.

Which is somewhat odd because the guy is an extremely poor public speaker, I am talking GWB level of speaking skills. He is not a Steve Jobs, or Steve Ballmer.

[12,000 RPM]

Which is somewhat odd because the guy is an extremely poor public speaker, I am talking GWB level of speaking skills. He is not a Steve Jobs, or Steve Ballmer.

More times than not the founder of a company built on a great idea is not the person to run it (think Uber). Like Kalanick Musk is too proud/headstrong to be tempered by PR management. But such entities exist for good reason. This will hurt Musk too as when he gets bought out it's going to be for pennies on the dollar. Lesson learned- always take the money over the glory, and get the getting while it's good.

[SJ_GTI]

There's no way they continue a few more years. They're hemorrhaging cash. Their total volume from Q4 17 to Q1 18 is actually flat. They made more model 3 but less S and X.  And their profitability went down. They're not hitting consistent production numbers at all.

They already downgraded their bond ratings. They're running out of cash and other prople's money is drying up. They're going to have to do another funding round.

They're so cash strapped that the aging Model S and X development is stopping. Now the only thing they make that is profitable has saturated the market and looking long in the tooth.

This ends with Tesla getting bought out for cheap.

You might be right about them going bankrupt eventually, but you are conflating sales and production in your post above. Total sales volumes were flat between Q4'17 and Q1'18, but production volume was up about 40%. Q4'17 was unusual in that Tesla delivered about 20% more vehicles than they produced. In Q1'18 they produced more than they delivered.

FWIW I didn't know any of the above until about 10 minutes ago. Your post implying that their volume was flat seemed unlikely so I decided to look up the data.

Q4'17 Production: 24,565
Q4'17 Deliveries: 29,870

Q1'18 Production: 34,984
Q1'18 Deliveries: 29,980

A 40% increase in production capacity in a single quarter is huge.

[Laconian]

There's a Model 3 parked outside. God damn, that cockpit does look great. Even if it's an ergonomic nightmare. It would be perfect if you dialed that solution back to 8/10ths and restored some of the important fixed controls.

[Tave]

"Why wouldn't you want your car to stall in the middle of traffic every now and then? It's good to learn emergency management and Frogger skills" - Tave/r0tor

All I'd say is every brand experiences failures across a model lineup. That's why we look at rate of incidents and not just whether they occur, because they always do. Combustion engines seize or go into limp mode too.

That said, reliability has been an issue with Tesla in the past, so it's a fair criticism and valid issue to track. Admittedly, the market they've played in up until the 3 wasn't the most reliable itself, but I agree if they suck people should call them out on it. We'll see if they can improve.

[Tave]

There's a Model 3 parked outside. God damn, that cockpit does look great. Even if it's an ergonomic nightmare. It would be perfect if you dialed that solution back to 8/10ths and restored some of the important fixed controls.

Is it really a nightmare though? Extremely airy with great visibility, every control either at your fingertips or in one central location, no plastic tumors to bang your knees and elbows on, etc...

I doubt it's somehow physically painful to operate. 

[Tave]

They already downgraded their bond ratings. They're running out of cash and other prople's money is drying up. They're going to have to do another funding round.

...MrH announces the day that it's revealed Tesla delivered 3,000 Model 3s this last week and has been widely announced for days that Tesla will not seek additional funding.

Give us some more peeks into our crystal ball, Swami!

[Soup DeVille]

Is it really a nightmare though? Extremely airy with great visibility, every control either at your fingertips or in one central location, no plastic tumors to bang your knees and elbows on, etc...

I doubt it's somehow physically painful to operate. 

"at your fingertips" is not the same as "four menus deep on a touchscreen that also requires your eyes because there's no physical feedback."

[Laconian]

Is it really a nightmare though? Extremely airy with great visibility, every control either at your fingertips or in one central location, no plastic tumors to bang your knees and elbows on, etc...

I doubt it's somehow physically painful to operate. 

I often raged at our '07 Accord for burying basic HVAC controls into the infotainment system, so yeah, the 3 would irk me.

[Tave]

I often raged at our '07 Accord for burying basic HVAC controls into the infotainment system, so yeah, the 3 would irk me.

But it's got dedicated HVAC on the bezels. 

And not to nit pick, but that's not exactly an ergonomic issue...

[Tave]

"at your fingertips" is not the same as "four menus deep on a touchscreen that also requires your eyes because there's no physical feedback."

What controls on the Model 3 have you found difficult to execute?

[2o6]

But it's got dedicated HVAC on the bezels. 

And not to nit pick, but that's not exactly an ergonomic issue...

That's the textbook definition of ergonomics!