Tesla

[Laconian]

Here's some info on the new batteries. https://electrek.co/2020/09/16/tesla-battery-cell-in-house-roadrunner-first-look/

Beer can size, no "tabs". Big claims regarding power (5x) and energy storage (6x) versus existing 2160 cells.

[Laconian]

Is the hype about <$100/kW at all credible? That would be insane. That would unlock 300-mi EVs in the low teens.

[Laconian]

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/22/everything-you-need-to-know-about-teslas-new-4680-battery-cell/

[r0tor]

Game changer right there. No more cobalt.  50% cheaper.  Higher density. 

Tesla was already ahead of it's competitors by ~30% in terms of battery cost and energy density.  Another 50% better is enough to make their future products untouchable in the market unless competitors can play a dramatic game of catch up.

[Morris Minor]

Making the battery pack a structural element of the car is interesting - not sure how that would fit in to a modular replacement model.

Side note: Musk used the phrase "laptop on wheels" when talking about autonomy development - echoes the conceptual view my son told me to take when I visited last month.

[MrH]

Lol, no, guys, this isn't credible.  This was a presentation on an idea, from a white paper, to make a pilot plant, to prove this out.

Innovation is not coming up with new ideas.  It's implementing them profitably. That's innovation.

[CaminoRacer]

We're not allowed to talk about concept cars anymore?

[r0tor]

I guess all of those white papers showing ground breaking research produced by universities as well as companies are just trash now

[SJ_GTI]

Tesla will be bankrupt before any of this becomes real anyway.

[Soup DeVille]

Tesla will be bankrupt before any of this becomes real anyway.

That's OK (but unlikely barring a sudden dropping off the pedestal by stock prospectors). Most of the intellectual property is Panasonic's.

[MrH]

We're not allowed to talk about concept cars anymore?

Concept cars?  Sure.  It does get a little old, when Elon is tweeting out 4 products that debuted years ago, and aren't any closer to production.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1308563749888864257?s=20

One of which is just a Yamaha atv he put some body cladding on and called it his own.

Manufacturing concepts?  No, not really.  Especially when it's the man who said he was going to build the machine that makes the machines!  The Alien Dreadnaught ™ he called it.  Then he ended up making cars in a tent with serious quality issues.  He has zero creditability.

[CaminoRacer]

Meh gotta talk about something on a car forum. Mid engine corvette was talked about for decades before it came out

[r0tor]

Audi had eTron concepts for a full decade before releasing one.

[Morris Minor]

If I were the sort of chappie who had personal heroes, this guy would be on the short list.
https://youtu.be/GkQga-mzO4Y

[MrH]

I can't tell if you're serious or not.  Tesla is the only one giving him the time of day.  He's on another video begging for them to help him

[Laconian]

Roofs blowing off of cars! How do we know Chien is not secretly a Tesla short???

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-y-roof-fell-off-family-claims-quality-control-concern-2020-10

[Morris Minor]

Model 3's being tarted up for 2021 - it's getting a heat pump for the HVAC instead of resistance heating.

Meanwhile, this is a fun watch - the car does well until the brakes get fried.
https://youtu.be/7BMoprNXZZg

Subsequently he took one out that had had some goodness breathed into it. Not sure the owner enjoyed the ride.
https://youtu.be/I-LI_jeytBI

[SJ_GTI]

Another record quarter for Tesla:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/tesla-tsla-earnings-q3-2020.html

Here is how Tesla performed versus analyst expectations:

Earnings per share (adjusted): 76 cents vs 57 cents, per Refinitiv
Revenue: $8.77 billion vs $8.36 billion, per Refinitiv
Net income (GAAP): $331 million
The company already reported that it delivered 139,300 vehicles during the quarter, a new record for Tesla.

Automotive revenue comprised $7.6 billion, about 91% of the total for the quarter. Automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, rose from 18.7% to 23.7% sequentially.

[Morris Minor]

Another record quarter for Tesla:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/tesla-tsla-earnings-q3-2020.html

I took a nibble at the stock a few weeks back, mostly because of the battery stuff they're doing. Thinking of it as a long term hold.

[MrH]

$88M in options granted to the CFO days before the quarterly numbers released

Gross margin is a meaningless number that you can game easily.  Look at actual free cash flow from the quarter, minus regulatory credits, and it's the same story as always.  A money losing business.

[Morris Minor]

I think fund managers must be nervous - a lot of volatility is being added to the S&P 500. This is happening just as the big guys (i.e. VW) are finally mobilising to do battle.

Tesla stock jumps on carmaker's addition to the S&P 500
S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on Monday that Tesla will join the S&P 500 effective prior to trading on Monday, Dec. 21.
Upon entry, Tesla is already one of the S&P 500′s 10 most valuable companies based on Monday's closing prices.
Tesla was snubbed in September after it met criteria to be included in the S&P 500 but was not initially picked by the S&P 500 Index Committee.
More...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/tesla-stock-jumps-on-news-company-is-joining-sp-500.html

[Morris Minor]

Jay Leno reveals what he thinks is the genius behind Elon Musk and Tesla

   
• Jay Leno said he thinks the genius of Tesla's CEO Elon Musk is that "he was building the infrastructure as he was building the vehicle."
• Electric car maker Tesla will be the newest member of the S&P 500 on Monday.
• Highlighting America's dominance in private industry, he pointed to Musk's success when it came to the space industry.

More:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/18/jay-leno-reveals-what-he-thinks-is-the-genius-behind-elon-musk-tesla.html


(MrH will have a different perspective on this  )

[Morris Minor]

The regulatory environment in the USA just got a lot more friendly for EVs in general & Tesla in particular.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-gets-street-high-810-223049436.html

[MrH]

The regulatory environment in the USA just got a lot more friendly for EVs in general & Tesla in particular.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-gets-street-high-810-223049436.html

Adam Jonas is not an idiot.  He's complicit in this fraud though.  They are all just jockeying to get a piece of the next cap raise and the giant fees associated with it.

Let's break down what Jonas is saying to justify:

- $37/share in value for Tesla's insurance business
- $96/share for a non-existent business of being a 3rd party battery supplier to other OEMs

Let's put some perspective on this.  $96/share, for a fictional business that doesn't exist, is larger than all of VW's market cap.  A company that sells 11M cars a year, with $34B in EBITDA in 2019, is worth less than a hypothetical Tesla business that doesn't exist.

[Rich]

Adam Jonas is not an idiot.  He's complicit in this fraud though.  They are all just jockeying to get a piece of the next cap raise and the giant fees associated with it.

Let's break down what Jonas is saying to justify:

- $37/share in value for Tesla's insurance business
- $96/share for a non-existent business of being a 3rd party battery supplier to other OEMs

Let's put some perspective on this.  $96/share, for a fictional business that doesn't exist, is larger than all of VW's market cap.  A company that sells 11M cars a year, with $34B in EBITDA in 2019, is worth less than a hypothetical Tesla business that doesn't exist.

Future value (future returns), not current bidness.

[Laconian]

Musk is now the richest person on Earth? SpaceX is pretty cool, but... really?

[Morris Minor]

Musk is now the richest person on Earth? SpaceX is pretty cool, but... really?

The Starlink venture is interesting. I like reading /r/starlink - seeing the experiences of people in the Better than Nothing beta program.
As to Tesla - I think of them as being good at doing laptops on wheels, and good at battery technology. But still not so good at screwing cars together.
(I'm a bit sensitive on that subject because of my CR-V experience)

[CaminoRacer]

The Starlink venture is interesting. I like reading /r/starlink - seeing the experiences of people in the Better than Nothing beta program.
As to Tesla - I think of them as being good at doing laptops on wheels, and good at battery technology. But still not so good at screwing cars together.
(I'm a bit sensitive on that subject because of my CR-V experience)

Matt Farah (Smoking Tire) has a Mustang Mach-E this week and this is what he said about it: "
My turn with a Mach-E and I get it for a whole week! First impression: just like a Tesla Y, but you don't have to join a cult and if you pay $10,000 for an option, that option will probably do something (and be there for the next owner, too) People STARE at it and I was asked about it at every single red light."

[Laconian]

"just like a Tesla Y, but you don't have to join a cult"

LOL

To be fair, I know plenty of normal Tesla owners. The biggest Musk fanboys among my friends don't even drive.

[r0tor]

Maybe not a joining a cult, but it takes a "special" someone to buy something with "mustang" in the name and it being a 4 door crossover that makes odd fake engine sounds