Tesla

[GoCougs]

1 TRILLIONdollars? 

YEP. The rise has been like no other.

[Payman]

!
Sure he is

No really. While here for my son's wedding he rented a Model Y through Turo, and we were talking about Tesla and I asked if he'd get one. He said he's in line to get one of the first Cybertrucks, free to select IPO investors. Mind you, I'll be interested to see if this happens as well, but i'll tell you he's self made and never had a reason to bullshit.

[Payman]

$1T - now just wait for SpaceX! (Unrelated to SpaceX, but suffice it to say I have NO respect for 98% of the new space race.)

To be fair, Amazon was on much the same trajectory, and finally eked it out after ~20 years (though still trading at a P/E double Big Tech average).

I mean, who doesn't love a disruption story, but Musk has garnered far too much negative equity IMO. Look at the various systems and what they let him get away with of which we know about, imagine that which we don't know about.

Nope. I was expecting a Tesla fall like the rest of you, but it's not going to happen. On track to sell 800,000+ cars this year, and surpass a million next. Their customer base is in the millions now, and are the most loyal on Earth. If anything, Musk is enjoying phenomenal positive equity.

[MrH]

No really. While here for my son's wedding he rented a Model Y through Turo, and we were talking about Tesla and I asked if he'd get one. He said he's in line to get one of the first Cybertrucks, free to select IPO investors. Mind you, I'll be interested to see if this happens as well, but i'll tell you he's self made and never had a reason to bullshit.

Sorry, thought it was their goofy referral program.  I take it this is the Viper guy?

I don't think the Cybertruck is making it to market looking anything close to the same, and no where near the price/range they claimed.  The battery tech that was all predicted on still doesn't exist in volume.  It will be a very neutered looking version of it years from now, if ever.

[MrH]

About the craziness yesterday:

TSLA's market capitalization is up about $80 billion today on news of a $4.2 billion "order" that a recently-bankrupt company with $1.8 billion in cash and $8.5 billion in debt just placed as safety and regulatory issues are coming to the fore.

And that was before the end of trading.  It ended up being up $144B on the day I think. 

Another way to put into perspective:

Perspective. One more day like today and Tesla will be "worth" 2 Berkshires, despite BRK profit exceeding Tesla revenues.
As of today, $TSLA is valued above the entire global auto industry, PLUS Uber, Lyft, Progressive, GEICO (if public), Allstate, Duke Energy & Dominion Energy.

And as another put it: Tesla is the options market now.  This it the definition of gamma squeeze.  This has been happening non stop with this stock for years.  HUGE, incredibly short expiry call options with stratospheric strike prices.  Why this hasn't been stopped by the SEC, I'll never know.  Elon has publicly said he's selling some options in Q4, so this is a pump like we've never seen before.  Truly incredible.

[Morris Minor]

I thought it would cool off a lot today, but as of now TSLA's at about $1,075.

[GoCougs]

Nope. I was expecting a Tesla fall like the rest of you, but it's not going to happen. On track to sell 800,000+ cars this year, and surpass a million next. Their customer base is in the millions now, and are the most loyal on Earth. If anything, Musk is enjoying phenomenal positive equity.

If Tesla was valued like a Toyota (i.e., Tesla revenue but Toyota's profitability and earnings/share, which it does not have) its share price would be but ~3% of actual (~$31 instead of ~$1,100). Tesla also has a valuation greater than ALL other automakers combined (Toyota $245B, VWAG $150B, GM $84B, BMW $66B, Ford $63B, Stellantis $61B, etc.). What little history Tesla has of profitability is tied to bitcoin and carbon credit trading. Sidestepping the personal vendettas, the SEC violations, Auto Pilot failures and epic quality problems, something's absolutely wrong here.

[r0tor]

Like with anything, something is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it.

[Payman]

If Tesla was valued like a Toyota (i.e., Tesla revenue but Toyota's profitability and earnings/share, which it does not have) its share price would be but ~3% of actual (~$31 instead of ~$1,100). Tesla also has a valuation greater than ALL other automakers combined (Toyota $245B, VWAG $150B, GM $84B, BMW $66B, Ford $63B, Stellantis $61B, etc.). What little history Tesla has of profitability is tied to bitcoin and carbon credit trading. Sidestepping the personal vendettas, the SEC violations, Auto Pilot failures and epic quality problems, something's absolutely wrong here.

The Tesla faithful. And they aren't going anywhere. Nobody gives a rat's ass about Toyota, but the cult of Tesla is massive.

[SJ_GTI]

If Tesla was valued like a Toyota (i.e., Tesla revenue but Toyota's profitability and earnings/share, which it does not have) its share price would be but ~3% of actual (~$31 instead of ~$1,100). Tesla also has a valuation greater than ALL other automakers combined (Toyota $245B, VWAG $150B, GM $84B, BMW $66B, Ford $63B, Stellantis $61B, etc.). What little history Tesla has of profitability is tied to bitcoin and carbon credit trading. Sidestepping the personal vendettas, the SEC violations, Auto Pilot failures and epic quality problems, something's absolutely wrong here.

Not disputing that Tesla is overvalued, but Tesla actually took an expense for Bitcoin in Q3, not a gain. Assuming BTC doesn't drop from where it is today they will probably take a gain in Q4.

I couldn't find the specific regulatory credits income, but what i could find said it was lower in 2021 vs 2020, and their automotive gross margin is 30.5% incl. the credits and 28.8% excl. the credits.

[MrH]

Not disputing that Tesla is overvalued, but Tesla actually took an expense for Bitcoin in Q3, not a gain. Assuming BTC doesn't drop from where it is today they will probably take a gain in Q4.

I couldn't find the specific regulatory credits income, but what i could find said it was lower in 2021 vs 2020, and their automotive gross margin is 30.5% incl. the credits and 28.8% excl. the credits.

They pulled the trigger on a big portion of what regulatory credits were left in reserve.  If you're curious on a quick pass of the 10Q vs previous quarters, this guy points out what sticks out to him every quarter.

https://threader.app/thread/1452622523456266247

[Morris Minor]

If you lobotomized, then stamped on, a goldfish, it would still operate at a higher intellectual level than the MSM.

[Payman]

Sorry, thought it was their goofy referral program.  I take it this is the Viper guy?

I don't think the Cybertruck is making it to market looking anything close to the same, and no where near the price/range they claimed.  The battery tech that was all predicted on still doesn't exist in volume.  It will be a very neutered looking version of it years from now, if ever.

Lol, talked to him last night. He bought 1250 shares during the IPO as a joke, fully expecting to lose it (some $21,500). Worth $1,400,000 now.

Fucker.

[Laconian]

Paper gains! Is he man enough to sell it?

[Payman]

Paper gains! Is he man enough to sell it?

So nonchalant it's sickening. No, he'll just let it fester, collect his Cybertruck and run it into the ground.

[MrH]

I still don't know what you mean by free Cybertruck.  The IPO was back in 2010, long before the Cybertruck idea even existed.  It's still years away from actually happening.

[Morris Minor]

Tesla is probably the most noise-obscured stock out there: wacky-genius boss, disruptive tech, lots of speculators, lots of passionate fans, lots of passionate detractors. But ultimately, like all stocks, the value will settle down to something approaching its intrinsic worth.
Right now it reminds me of Apple when Jobs was running balls-out.

[MrH]

This is coked-out, outlaw Steve Jobs, promising nonsense.  This is very, very different than any other company ever.

[GoCougs]

I still don't know what you mean by free Cybertruck.  The IPO was back in 2010, long before the Cybertruck idea even existed.  It's still years away from actually happening.

I'm not sure how such a small stock purchase on the open market, or its current appreciated position WRT a ~1T$ valuation, is going to hit anyone's radar at Telsa.

[NomisR]

Congrats! Looks great IMHO, really dig the wheels.

Did you buy new and immediately make those upgrades? Or used?

Bought new and did the upgrades about 2 weeks later.  It took a while for all the parts to become available.

[Morris Minor]

This is coked-out, outlaw Steve Jobs, promising nonsense.  This is very, very different than any other company ever.

Your stream of invective against, and your impugning the worst possible motives of, anyone who has any view of Tesla contrary to yours, speaks volumes.

[NomisR]

Your stream of invective against, and your impugning the worst possible motives of, anyone who has any view of Tesla contrary to yours, speaks volumes.

I mean, he's right in most of what he's saying with regards to Elon Musk and Tesla.  The whole company's valuations makes absolutely no sense. 

[MrH]

Your stream of invective against, and your impugning the worst possible motives of, anyone who has any view of Tesla contrary to yours, speaks volumes.

[SJ_GTI]

I would also question Elon Musk's "genius." Its not like he is personally developing this stuff. Note he didn't even start the company, just bought it and pushed it to the limits.

Elon Musk does have a vision and a high level of risk tolerance and that has worked out very well for him. He might also be a genius, but that isn't obvious from his actions.

[Morris Minor]

He's not a genius - but equally he's not the epitome of evil that the shorts say he is. Nor do all Tesla buyers become worthless cretins the second they take possession of the cars.

[Payman]

Haters gonna hate.

[MrH]

He's not a genius - but equally he's not the epitome of evil that the shorts say he is. Nor do all Tesla buyers become worthless cretins the second they take possession of the cars.

He's very easily in the running for most morally bankrupt CEO out there today.

I don't hate people for buying Teslas.  I hate the flying monkey cult that excuses abhorrent behavior from their favorite company because their livelihood depends on it.  I actually kind of like the Model S.  It moved the industry in a lot of ways, I think it looks great.  It's just really long in the tooth.

I've always said, I don't hate the product so much, as I do the business itself.  It's not mind bending tech that's disrupting the industry.  It's simply the appetite for risk.  I hate when people conflate the two.  They're very, very different things.

[Payman]

He's very easily in the running for most morally bankrupt CEO out there today.

I hate the flying monkey cult that excuses abhorrent behavior

*cough*

[r0tor]

Tesla's valuation is just another thing that points towards traditional currency having basically no real value itself.

[Laconian]

Tesla's valuation is just another thing that points towards traditional currency having basically no real value itself.

It points to markets being a lousy indicator of intrinsic value. If everybody rushed for the doors at once, the price would crash immediately, and there wouldn't be a trillion dollars changing hands.

It is an AMAZING tax loophole piggybank for Musk. He has mega collateral that he can borrow against without realizing any capital gains.