Tesla

[r0tor]

It points to markets being a lousy indicator of intrinsic value. If everybody rushed for the doors at once, the price would crash immediately, and there wouldn't be a trillion dollars changing hands.

It is an AMAZING tax loophole piggybank for Musk. He has mega collateral that he can borrow against without realizing any capital gains.

What is stock market valuation?  In the end it's a bet of the "value" (profit, capital, marketing worth, ect) for a non defined amount of time in the future in terms of physical currency.  It's nothing intrinsic or mathematical - it's purely a gamble with no real correct or incorrect valuation available.

Then the actual worth of physical currency itself the valuation is based on.  Crypto has exposed that fraud and flipped it upside down.  Basically every government that "backs" (well questionable if it really does) the value of the currency is in debt beyond what is ever able to be recovered from.  What is the value in that?  The real "value" is driven by the 99.9% of the population being enslaved working for physical currency which in itself is designed to never let them stop working for it and therefore makes it desirable and therefore valuable.  The moment that something else came along (crypto) that separated from this scheme that people can invest in has blown this up.  Fuck, $8k of Shiba Inu meme grade crypto bought last year is now worth $5 billion .  Meme gifs are selling for tens of millions of dollars.

The system that has enslaved the planet for a couple hundred years is broken and is burning to the ground.  Tesla valuation is just the latest sign of this.

What if the latest trend of people not willing to work ends up being just a result of the working class flipping crypto instead of working for dollars.

[Laconian]

Stock market valuation is the instantaneous product of outstanding shares and the instantaneous value of a share. The latter is highly dynamic, especially in speculative situations where people are waiting for that "greater fool" to step in (*cough* crypto). A run for the exit creates a runaway feedback loop that will drop the value to zero.

People probably said the same about tulip bulbs hundreds of years ago. And yet we're still transacting with currency.

[r0tor]

Stock market valuation is the instantaneous product of outstanding shares and the instantaneous value of a share. The latter is highly dynamic, especially in speculative situations where people are waiting for that "greater fool" to step in (*cough* crypto). A run for the exit creates a runaway feedback loop that will drop the value to zero.

People probably said the same about tulip bulbs hundreds of years ago. And yet we're still transacting with currency.

Current price of ALL stocks is ALL speculative.

[Laconian]

Current price of ALL stocks is ALL speculative.

Markets wouldn't exist without speculation.

There is a teensy little difference between a company with a P/E ratio of 270 compared to one with a P/E ratio of 20.

[r0tor]

Markets wouldn't exist without speculation.

There is a teensy little difference between a company with a P/E ratio of 270 compared to one with a P/E ratio of 20.

and what is that exactly?  Either could go bankrupt next week if something in the world changes to make their product no longer wanted

[SJ_GTI]

I think you guys are oversimplifying a bit. A company's stock valuation is notionally based on the NPV of all predicted future cash flow. Tesla growth, in both revenues and profits, have been fantastic in the last few years. At the same time people do not have good intuitions about how compounding growth works. The "market" can also temporarily support two different possible outcomes (one where the established car companies maintain dominance and one where Tesla dominates).

I am still skeptical that they are worth what the market has them at (evidenced by the fact I own no Tesla stock) but until their growth slows dramatically don't expect their stock price to plummet.

[Payman]

Rivian IPO possibly happening in November. 

[MrH]

Stock market valuation is the instantaneous product of outstanding shares and the instantaneous value of a share. The latter is highly dynamic, especially in speculative situations where people are waiting for that "greater fool" to step in (*cough* crypto). A run for the exit creates a runaway feedback loop that will drop the value to zero.

People probably said the same about tulip bulbs hundreds of years ago. And yet we're still transacting with currency.

Gamifying the derivatives market and not enforcing anything is what really drove this.  It's an absolute joke what the SEC chooses to go after and what it lets slide.

There's a lot of simple things that could be put in place that would help reel all this in, and yet, we get nothing.

[Payman]

Gamifying the derivatives market and not enforcing anything is what really drove this.  It's an absolute joke what the SEC chooses to go after and what it lets slide.

There's a lot of simple things that could be put in place that would help reel all this in, and yet, we get nothing.

You mean regulations?

[MrH]

You mean regulations?

Enforcement of the current regulations would be a big step in the right direction.  But yes, some more regulation on certain things.  There's talks of banning payment for order flow.  That'd help.  Also, treating crytpo as the securities that they are would also be good.  Those are both moving that direction and I understand it takes time.  My bigger issue is the lack of enforcement of current regulation.

[GoCougs]

Tesla's valuation is just another thing that points towards traditional currency having basically no real value itself.

"Traditional currency" (fiat currency) has never, ever had "real" value, by definition of how it works.

[GoCougs]

It points to markets being a lousy indicator of intrinsic value. If everybody rushed for the doors at once, the price would crash immediately, and there wouldn't be a trillion dollars changing hands.

It is an AMAZING tax loophole piggybank for Musk. He has mega collateral that he can borrow against without realizing any capital gains.

The elites have never really paid taxes. The tools and levers available to them WtP can't even begin to fathom; both in number and genius, and that's just the by-the-books legal stuff. Just imagine the shit they've invented for which no laws exist, and won't anytime soon, if ever.

[r0tor]

"Traditional currency" (fiat currency) has never, ever had "real" value, by definition of how it works.

Exactly... So what's the actual valuation of something worth a trillion nothings or a billion nothings

[GoCougs]

Exactly... So what's the actual valuation of something worth a trillion nothings or a billion nothings

The valuation is as a gauge of medium of exchange. Tesla is worth $1T US, a medium of exchange that can be used for other things denominated in US $.

[Morris Minor]

Eight of the top ten are US companies.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/

[Submariner]

No really. While here for my son's wedding he rented a Model Y through Turo, and we were talking about Tesla and I asked if he'd get one. He said he's in line to get one of the first Cybertrucks, free to select IPO investors. Mind you, I'll be interested to see if this happens as well, but i'll tell you he's self made and never had a reason to bullshit.

I can see Musk doing something like that.  Entirely believable IMO.

[GoCougs]

Sounds and looks exceedingly mediocre:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn9QWjxFPKM

[MrH]

Sounds and looks exceedingly mediocre:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn9QWjxFPKM

Well, it's over 9 years old.

[GoCougs]

WtP buy Teslas, not EVs, or even cars, ergo, the Model S Plaid.

[afty]

Out of curiosity, I got a quote from Carvana for my 2019 Model 3 with 17k miles: $46k.  I paid $48k after Federal and state rebates 2.5 years ago.
This used car market is crazy.

[AutobahnSHO]

I mean, he's right in most of what he's saying with regards to Elon Musk and Tesla.  The whole company's valuations makes absolutely no sense. 

Until you remember that people are nuts.

[AutobahnSHO]

The elites have never really paid taxes. The tools and levers available to them WtP can't even begin to fathom; both in number and genius, and that's just the by-the-books legal stuff. Just imagine the shit they've invented for which no laws exist, and won't anytime soon, if ever.

Anyone could do this if they invested enough time and energy into it. I was talking last night with a guy about a guy we work with- he's an Army reservist here temporarily. Back home he works for Leidos, a big defense contractor. Totally above board (if such exists).

Well he's probably making $100-200k annually but has nothing going to IRS. He somehow claims all kinds of stuff as business expenses and pays hardly any taxes. He also races motorcycles part time, I wouldn't believe his stories but I was walking past his cubicle and his browser was logged into the Virginia DMV page and sure enough he had at least 8 vehicles listed (at least 5 Ducatis).  The tax thing is probably shady but with the right accountant and lawyer most stuff can be kept off the radar....

[Laconian]

Is he a contractor for Leidos? W-2 salaried employees are very limited in what they can claim.

[Morris Minor]

e-tron gets a refill in the Netherlands. https://www.tesla.com/support/non-tesla-supercharging

[Payman]

e-tron gets a refill in the Netherlands. https://www.tesla.com/support/non-tesla-supercharging

This is the real Tesla goldmine: open up the charging stations to all EV's, and charge them (pun intended) accordingly. Nobody else but Tesla can afford their own worldwide charging network, and it would be stupid to have a dozen different networks for a dozen different EV's.

How much does charging cost for Non-Tesla vehicles?
Pricing for Non-Tesla drivers reflects additional costs incurred to support charging a broad range of vehicles and adjustments to our sites to accommodate these vehicles. Rates vary by site, and you can view charging prices in the Tesla app. The per kWh price to charge can be lowered with a charging membership.

[Morris Minor]

Well, well. What's going on here?

Elon Musk Says Tesla Hasn't Signed Deal With Hertz Despite Earlier Announcement
'We will only sell cars to Hertz for the same margin as to consumers,' the Tesla CEO says in a tweet

Hertz said last month that it was ordering 100,000 Teslas to be delivered to the rental-car company by the end of next year.

Tesla Inc. TSLA -3.48% Chief Executive Elon Musk said the electric-vehicle maker hasn't signed a deal with Hertz Global Holdings Inc. HTZZ 10.09% yet, which appeared to contradict a Hertz announcement late last month that the company was ordering 100,000 Teslas.

"I'd like to emphasize that no contract has been signed yet," Mr. Musk said in a tweet late Monday. "Tesla has far more demand than production, therefore we will only sell cars to Hertz for the same margin as to consumers. Hertz deal has zero effect on our economics," he said.

Representatives for Tesla weren't immediately available for comment.

In late October, Hertz said it ordered 100,000 Teslas to be delivered to the rental-car company by the end of next year, a bulk purchase that promised to expose more mainstream drivers to Tesla's technology.

After Mr. Musk's tweet, a Hertz spokeswoman Tuesday morning appeared to stand by its earlier announcement. She also said deliveries of Tesla have already started.

"As we announced last week, Hertz has made an initial order of 100,000 Tesla electric vehicles and is investing in new EV charging infrastructure across the company's global operations," the Hertz spokeswoman said. "We are seeing very strong early demand for Teslas in our rental fleet, which reflects market demand for Tesla vehicles," she said.

In the Hertz announcement last month, it said it was partnering with NFL quarterback Tom Brady to promote Tesla's EV campaign. The company's online press release included a video interview with NFL quarterback Tom Brady discussing his experiences with EVs

Tesla didn't put out a press release when Hertz announced the deal.

Mr. Musk at the time tweeted: "Strange that moved valuation, as Tesla is very much a production ramp problem, not a demand problem." He added in a separate tweet: "To be clear, cars sold to Hertz have no discount. Same price as to consumers."
Tesla shares dropped 3.7% premarket. The stock has soared in recent days following the Hertz announcement, topping $1 trillion in market value. Mr. Musk's personal net worth also exceeded $300 billion in the days following the announcement and was recently $335 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-says-tesla-hasnt-signed-deal-with-hertz-despite-earlier-announcement-11635854363

[Payman]

I give him a year left in charge, and then he'll be disposed of. Shareholders might be starry-eyed right now, but he's playing shenanigans with their money.

[afty]

It does seem odd that Tesla would sell 100k cars to Hertz when there's already an 8-month wait for a consumer to get their car.  Selling cars to rental companies hurts your brand image and resale value. 

I wonder if some junior executive made this deal and Elon is walking it back.

[Payman]

It does seem odd that Tesla would sell 100k cars to Hertz when there's already an 8-month wait for a consumer to get their car.  Selling cars to rental companies hurts your brand image and resale value. 

I wonder if some junior executive made this deal and Elon is walking it back.

On the other hand, it gets thousands of people to check out a Tesla, where they otherwise wouldn't/couldn't. My single exposure to a Tesla was a rental (Model Y through Turo).

[Laconian]

I rented a Model S through National and had an absolute blast with it. I waited until the roads were ~empty at 11pm and then did full-throttle acceleration on offramps all along the South Bay until midnight.