Tesla

[Soup DeVille]

Google will just make the software and maybe equipment. Relatively cheap variable cost. Once they nail it down, they'll sell it to oems for $10k a car or something. Building a car is tough, I don't think google wants anything to do with that, right?

I don't know.

Google has taken on some diverse projects already, I wouldn't put it past them.

[Galaxy]

All that talk of an apple car seems to have gone away.

[GoCougs]

Tesla has average to subpar tech across the board - whether manufacturing or in the car itself.

Tesla makes cars in CA/Silicon Valley (= anti business, catastrophically high costs of doing business).

Tesla has dismal financials and terrible track record of delivery on promises and a non-existent product development program (i.e., when will the new Model S launch?).

Tesla is now starting to play catch-up as other automakers enter the EV market - i.e., the Bolt is a better car than the 3, and Tesla could never build such a thing.

Tesla is the biggest short in the US stock market, with some ~25% of its shares shorted.

Tesla enjoys immense amounts of irrational exuberance because it is NOT of any other - i.e., pretty much no one would have bought a Ford or Nissan Model S.

No one will be buying Tesla (at least, pre bankruptcy).

[Tave]

Tesla sold more electric vehicles in March than the Volt, Bolt, Leaf, i3, eGolf, and Ford models all combined. If they continue their current rate of increase in production they'll add the Prius PHEV and rest of the list in about 2 months.

[MrH]

This isn't exactly breaking news. People have been talking about this for awhile, but now it's coming to light.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-16/analyst-spots-14-billion-hole-teslas-balance-sheet

They're going to be totally out of cash here soon.

[Soup DeVille]

Tesla sold more electric vehicles in March than the Volt, Bolt, Leaf, i3, eGolf, and Ford models all combined. If they continue their current rate of increase in production they'll add the Prius PHEV and rest of the list in about 2 months.

I don't know if clearing out their backlog of pre-orders should be considered sustainable sales.

[MrH]

Dominating a tiny, tiny niche sector of the whole while burning unprecedented amounts of cash to do so is probably not worth bragging about.

[SJ_GTI]

This isn't exactly breaking news. People have been talking about this for awhile, but now it's coming to light.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-16/analyst-spots-14-billion-hole-teslas-balance-sheet

They're going to be totally out of cash here soon.

That article just sounds like the writer/analyst doesn't understand how a GR/IR process works.

But who knows, maybe Tesla really is fraudulently under reporting their liabilities. In which case we will surely see Tesla go bankrupt this year and Musk in a courtroom.

[MX793]

Saw this pop up in my news feed today.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4163197-elon-musk-buried-tesla-single-tweet

[giant_mtb]

Saw this pop up in my news feed today.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4163197-elon-musk-buried-tesla-single-tweet

Seems a bit sensationalist-y.

[Soup DeVille]

Saw this pop up in my news feed today.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4163197-elon-musk-buried-tesla-single-tweet

Again the reference to "a crazy complex network of conveyor belts."

Automakers have been moving away from fixed conveyor belts and onto AGVs for years now.

I had assumed Tesla had gone whole hog with that and tried to elimnate chain on edge and power
and free conveyors entirely.

[MX793]

Again the reference to "a crazy complex network of conveyor belts."

Automakers have been moving away from fixed conveyor belts and onto AGVs for years now.

I had assumed Tesla had gone whole hog with that and tried to elimnate chain on edge and power
and free conveyors entirely.

Clearly Musk and company are unfamiliar with what other automakers have been doing since they seemed completely oblivious to the Toyota System.

[Laconian]

Seems a bit sensationalist-y.

seekingalpha features a lot of blogposts from activist short sellers, wouldn't be surprised if this is one of them

[MX793]

seekingalpha features a lot of blogposts from activist short sellers, wouldn't be surprised if this is one of them

They are, so some degree of skepticism is required.  But they make some interesting points.

[MrH]

Model 3 line is now down for another 4-5 days...

[GoCougs]

Tesla sold more electric vehicles in March than the Volt, Bolt, Leaf, i3, eGolf, and Ford models all combined. If they continue their current rate of increase in production they'll add the Prius PHEV and rest of the list in about 2 months.

Yup, and the more they sell, the more money they lose; which is a great business plan:

[ifcar]

Yup, and the more they sell, the more money they lose; which is a great business plan:

That's the period in which they were facing the costs of bringing the Model 3 to production without the revenue of selling it, so that's not too surprising. Eventually it will be the reverse.

[GoCougs]

Saw this pop up in my news feed today.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4163197-elon-musk-buried-tesla-single-tweet

That Tesla bombed it doesn't mean much; as you state, Musk poo-poo'd the Toyota Production System. THAT is when you knew Tesla was doomed.

If anything this is some sort of mea-culpa with an eye toward some sort of state or federal handout.

[Lebowski]

seekingalpha features a lot of blogposts from activist short sellers, wouldn't be surprised if this is one of them

I get the impression pretty much anyone can submit an article and they will publish.

[GoCougs]

That's the period in which they were facing the costs of bringing the Model 3 to production without the revenue of selling it, so that's not too surprising. Eventually it will be the reverse.

It's pretty normal to stay in the black when developing and launching new product...

[AutobahnSHO]

I just laugh at the fact Musk has so much other junk going on, but sleeps at the office to (micro)manage at Tesla.

[12,000 RPM]

That Tesla bombed it doesn't mean much; as you state, Musk poo-poo'd the Toyota Production System. THAT is when you knew Tesla was doomed.

If anything this is some sort of mea-culpa with an eye toward some sort of state or federal handout.

He sure picked the right administration for a socialist bailout

Elon is truly a master of media and image

[Soup DeVille]

I just laugh at the fact Musk has so much other junk going on, but sleeps at the office to (micro)manage at Tesla.

I doubt he's doing that with any sort of regularity. Chances are he's taken a nap or two and trying to make this into part of the Musk mythos.

[CaminoRacer]

Who doesn't nap at work?

[r0tor]

I can't believe anyone actually believes anything posted on seekingalpha

[AutobahnSHO]

I doubt he's doing that with any sort of regularity. Chances are he's taken a nap or two and trying to make this into part of the Musk mythos.

Look at MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!   I manage all night long!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Screams "I don't do time management well" to me.

[CaminoRacer]

Nah, there's probably tons of stuff that needs to be done and everyone is running around with their hair on fire. Setting up production can easily be a 24/7 thing.

[Galaxy]

So now they want to go to a 24/7 production and reach 6.000 cars per week by the end of June.

[MrH]

This is a train wreck.

Plant capacity is not something you can just turn up with a dial.  The entire production line should be designed around a takt time.  Everything from cell layout and labor planning to material movement and flow is designed around this takt time.

What was the original designed takt time of the line?  Is it something ridiculous, and there are really that many process failures that they're just working through each bottle neck every time?  Or are they redesigning the entire line with every capacity increase?  None of what he's saying makes sense.

Now he's going to switch from 10 shifts a week (2/day, 5 days/week), to 21 shifts a week (3/day, 7 days/week) to try and hit his production target that he was going to be able to do on just 10 shifts?  There are MASSIVE productivity issues going on then.  This is a very, very costly way to try and fix the issue.

The whole email is a mess.  Encouraging mass insubordination?  Approving every expense?  Just a massive pump before some really depressive Q1 numbers roll out.  Then Musk will play it off as "it was just an internal email to try and rile the troops".

[Soup DeVille]

What email?

Nevermind.

Well, he talks about precision and tolerances as if he's just discovered the CNC mill and everyone else is handfitting machines with files and scrapers.

He seems frenetic. In any of my managers, I would say "nervous." Does he always write like that?