Tesla

[2o6]

https://twitter.com/Model3Owners/status/1114300961684508672





Nearest Tesla sales/service centre really is now in Vancouver, over 1,000 km away. Next closest are in Seattle, Portland and Salt Lake City.

Wow WHAT

[12,000 RPM]

Can't they do service OTA?

[MrH]

Really fits the narrative of a growth company with plenty of liquidity

[AutobahnSHO]

Wow.

[2o6]

Tesla said they fired all the workers at the Calgary, AB store for "being inappropriate"

https://www.660citynews.com/2019/04/08/tesla-fires-several-calgary-employees/

[MrH]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-11/tesla-tumbles-panasonic-suspends-investments-both-gigafactory-1-and-shanghai-due-0

GROWTH STORY!

[Char]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-11/tesla-tumbles-panasonic-suspends-investments-both-gigafactory-1-and-shanghai-due-0

GROWTH STORY!

I came here to post this! Crazy!

[MX793]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-11/tesla-tumbles-panasonic-suspends-investments-both-gigafactory-1-and-shanghai-due-0

GROWTH STORY!

This is just Elon maneuvering his pieces to set up a sick burn on the shorts.  Just wait and see.

[MrH]

Here's the short thesis in a nutshell.  Mountains of evidence for each point made below too.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1116297442163613696.html

From @PauloMacro

Below is the Tesla short thesis in 20 simple, easy-to-comprehend points as I understand it today.

[Note: the below was inspired in good part by MontanaSkeptic's original work back in early 2018. Thank you Lawrence for your contribution and in doing real work.]

1. Valuation is obscene for a growth narrative that is breaking down.

2. Subsidies are ending (e.g.: federal tax credit went from $7.5k to $3,750 on Jan 1, going to $1,875 on July 1, and $0 on 1 Jan 2020)

3. Fierce competition arriving at the high end (Jaguar i-Pace, Audi E-tron, Porsche Taycan, Mercedes EQS) and low end (Nissan Leaf, Kia Niro, Hyundai Kona).

4. Model S & X growth stories are toast (see deliveries sequentially declining from 27.5k in 4Q18 to 12k in 1Q19 – it will get worse)... these models are where the real profit margins are.

5. As a product goes, Model 3 is a mess – corners were cut on parts approval, production line validation, and professional beta testing. Cars are produced in a tent.

6. Lack of a dealership model means aftermarket servicing is terrible, leading to brand erosion. Months to get parts. Consumer complaints are skyrocketing on Tesla forums, Reddit, Twitter.

7. Model 3 is the wrong car at the wrong time – sedan sales have fallen from ~50% of US auto sales a few years ago to <33%.

8. $35k mass market TM3 has a negative EBIT margin and almost certainly a negative gross margin. Production occurs in a high cost jurisdiction (California).

9. Insurance costs have skyrocketed. Cars are easily damaged, expensive to repair.

10. Take or pay battery deal with Panasonic is problematic: cylindrical battery cells out of favor with other EV makers, and Telsa is on the hook for Pana's equipment + ROI

11. Terrible corporate governance dating back at least to the fraudulent SolarCity merger– board is a joke, evidence of "tunneling," self dealing, and conflicts of interest among Tesla, SpaceX, and Boring Co.

12. Autonomous driving/FSD has been falsely marketed as such, and is killing people.

13. China is overwhelmed with competition and industry sales are collapsing.

14. Europe is collapsing without subsidies. Q1's ~20k Model 3 deliveries wiped out 3yrs of stock demand. True flow demand is a few thousand TM3/quarter.

15. Model Y reveal flopped. Declining capex over at least 4 quarters means no new models coming.

16. The balance sheet is scary – this company is insolvent.

17. Accounting fraud signs: misclassify COGS to SG&A (inflating margins), under-reserving for warranties, deferring insufficient income to cover true cost of supercharging, lease returns and new-build inventory piling up everywhere without proper writedowns.

18. Massive q/end window dressing suggests cash is tight: 4Q cash balance $3.7bn but interest income $7.35mn implied 80bps T-bill. Real average cash intra-quarter $1.25bn ($900mn CB repaid on March 1).

19. CEO suffers from Narcissistic Personality Disorder and Histrionic Personality Disorder – a potentially dangerous individual who is not economically rational.

20. Management turnover is historic. >100 senior executives over the past 2 years. CAO, CFO, etc.
$TSLA and $TSLAQ - what am I missing?

**NOTE: Do not take the above as investment advice - do your own homework. This is intended as descriptive / informational only to inspire discussion! **

[SJ_GTI]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/11/business/tesla-gm-electric-car-tax-credit/index.html

Michigan Democrats Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Sen. Gary Peters and Rep. Dan Kildee joined with Tennessee Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander and Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins to propose the legislation, which they say would increase production in electric vehicles and create jobs.

...

The proposed legislation would raise the cap, so that another 400,000 vehicles sold by each manufacturer will be eligible for a $7,000 tax credit. It would start phasing out after 600,000 vehicles are sold.

Probably would be vetoed by Trump.

I don't understand the approach if I am honest. Limited the number of credits per automaker seems to reward later movers instead of first movers.

Let's say Tesla/GM/VW perfect the technology behind electric cars. Then companies like FiatChrysler or whoever can just ride their coattails by just copying the other companies approach and winning sales because they still qualify for the credit.

If it were me I like the idea of a cap on the number...but I would make it a single cap industry wide. The people who take the risks and design the tech early are the ones who benefit from the subsidy and the late movers can't take advantage.

[MrH]

The tin foil hat theories on that legislation is great.  GM pushed for the bill because they just hit the 400k limit.

People are saying GM nows how tight Tesla is on cash, so any rumors of legislation to reenact a tax credit will push more demand out and force them to file for bankruptcy

[GoCougs]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/11/business/tesla-gm-electric-car-tax-credit/index.html

Probably would be vetoed by Trump.

I don't understand the approach if I am honest. Limited the number of credits per automaker seems to reward later movers instead of first movers.

Let's say Tesla/GM/VW perfect the technology behind electric cars. Then companies like FiatChrysler or whoever can just ride their coattails by just copying the other companies approach and winning sales because they still qualify for the credit.

If it were me I like the idea of a cap on the number...but I would make it a single cap industry wide. The people who take the risks and design the tech early are the ones who benefit from the subsidy and the late movers can't take advantage.

Left to rational devices, EVs are DOA for the foreseeable future in any meaningful volume - they're net losses for automakers and few people can legit afford them. Throwing more money after it is just a bad idea, if but for nothing else it drives an even bigger wedge between the haves and have-nots...

[12,000 RPM]

I think of all the wasted batteries, and it bums me out. Simple hybrids are so much better at being cars and leveraging battery capacity to reduce emissions. We'll see how this plays out

[Laconian]

I think of all the wasted batteries, and it bums me out. Simple hybrids are so much better at being cars and leveraging battery capacity to reduce emissions. We'll see how this plays out

Think of all the oil being extracted, refined, and combusted.

What do you mean about hybrids being better at being cars? Have you been paying attention? Model 3s are terrors around the racetrack. Bolts drive like GTIs. A hundred grand gives you an electric car with Veyron-grade thrust. What's left to want?

[FoMoJo]

Think of all the oil being extracted, refined, and combusted.

What do you mean about hybrids being better at being cars? Have you been paying attention? Model 3s are terrors around the racetrack. Bolts drive like GTIs. A hundred grand gives you an electric car with Veyron-grade thrust. What's left to want?

The sound of a high compression V8 with a set of dual Hooker mufflers?

[Laconian]

The sound of a high compression V8 with a set of dual Hooker mufflers?

Well, even ICE cars need to sympose their excitement nowadays.

[MX793]

Tesla's going out of their way to make the basic model 3 unobtainable.  The cheaper battery pack is vaporware.  The basic Model 3 is the same physical car as the Standard+, but with the range and features reduced by SW.  It's no cheaper to make than the next model up, so they no doubt are losing money on them.  So they have made it harder to order by removing it from their website ordering form and requiring it be special ordered at a dealership.

[Laconian]

None of this says "things are normal, things are going just fine" to me.

[MrH]

Elon is now feuding with Panasonic, their battery supplier for model 3, on Twitter. The pumps are coming fast and furious!

He's claiming "full self driving" is going up in price may 1st. There's another fraud event here soon. He said model 3s are appreciating assets because it will be fully autonomous and can act as a taxi for its owner soon.

We heard this all years ago, and they're last in the autonomous game.

The wheels are coming off fast. Loading up on my puts on Monday.

[GoCougs]

Couple of big lessons here: Big Tech is all but dead and the equity markets are rigged to the nines.

[Morris Minor]

In case any of you have access to the WSJ, a Cougsesque piece.
How the big guys have profitable ICE cars to cross-subsidize loss-making electrics. And Tesla does not.

Get Ready for a Pileup, Tesla
The company braces for a $300 billion onslaught of money-losing green cars
https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-a-pileup-tesla-11554851747

[12,000 RPM]

Think of all the oil being extracted, refined, and combusted.

What do you mean about hybrids being better at being cars? Have you been paying attention? Model 3s are terrors around the racetrack. Bolts drive like GTIs. A hundred grand gives you an electric car with Veyron-grade thrust. What's left to want?

A ~$30K BEV that can compete with $30K ICE cars, rather than $20K ones?

My post was strictly in the context of emissions reductions per kWh of battery capacity. Most of the US' electricity is generated from fossil fuels and globally the share of fossil fuel generated electricity is rising. Each kWh in a conventional hybrid reduces emissions by like 10x more than that same kWh in a BEV charged by fossil fuel electricity.

And of course there are the myriad of other issues.... nonexistent payback, cobalt's ethical issues, basic logistical hurdles of BEV ownership for many. None of this stuff is going away any time soon

[MrH]

Elon went nuclear on Twitter today. Said Panasonic is lying, picking a fight with the WSJ, and continuing to pump with material information that's 100% lies. I'm guessing the little negotiation with the SEC didn't go well...

[HurricaneSteve]

Blaconian.

Think of all the oil being extracted, refined, and combusted.

What do you mean about hybrids being better at being cars? Have you been paying attention? Model 3s are terrors around the racetrack. Bolts drive like GTIs. A hundred grand gives you an electric car with Veyron-grade thrust. What's left to want?

[r0tor]

Tesla shorts are some of the most sane and rational people on the planet
https://electrek.co/2019/04/20/tesla-shorts-threaten-accidents-restraining-order/

[AutobahnSHO]

Tesla shorts are some of the most sane and rational people on the planet
https://electrek.co/2019/04/20/tesla-shorts-threaten-accidents-restraining-order/

freakin looney bins!!!

[SJ_GTI]

i saw this link on anotyer forum and immediately thought of this thread. MrH will love it. 


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/watch-stunning-video-shows-parked-tesla-spontaneously-explode-chinese-garage

[MrH]

Already seen the exploding Tesla. You guys act like this will be new to me. I'm on the official twitter list of Tesla shorts that all the cultists have blocked

As for the restraining order: total bullshit. Skabooshka has been one of the best on the ground reporting of production numbers. Tesla is claiming he hit somebody with a car and is a threat...and yet there are zero charges against him, and the police didn't even think it was necessary to find him to serve the restraining order. Tesla tried this same accusation against somebody else too. It's all shit.

This is the Barbara Striesand effect in action. All the shorts are throwing in money to make this discovery process huge.

[GoCougs]

Correct, Musk is literally a psychopath, and not too smart, so nothing from Tesla (or him) can be trusted at this point. Also r0tor was a ginormous Ford proponent...

One still has to ask, Why all this drama? By my figuring it seems to have started a little while ago when Musk doxxed a short seller to his employer, trying to get him fired. The troops rallied, and now it's to the point that the trolling and drama that has happened as a result has literally jeopardized the existence of Tesla.

How can shareholders and/or the board not remove Musk shows how broken the whole system is - from EVs to the SEC. Musk is a failure. Tesla is a failure. EVs are a failure.

[12,000 RPM]

Look, Tesla has serious problems, but Musk not smart? Lol. Dude is worth $21B... unless you guys are billionaires too clearly he knows something you don't.

There's definitely an undercurrent of jealousy in the Tesla short community. Between the two sides it's impossible to get any kind of objective perspective. You have to read about the same issue from the cultists and shorts and pick out commonalities to find the truth. A referendum on American discourse and media in general.