EVs

[CaminoRacer]

Profitability aside, it's clear that Tesla is the market leader for EVs and everyone else is playing catch-up.

[MrH]

Profitability aside, it's clear that Tesla is the market leader for EVs and everyone else is playing catch-up.

A leader in what, exactly?

You want to compare market share or number of sales, all of that is meaningless if it doesn't generate profits or has any path of getting there.

[CaminoRacer]

Profitability doesn't matter anymore. Growth, marketing, and image are all the rage.

[MrH]

So they're the leader in meaningless stuff or things that can't be quantified?

[r0tor]

Man... I thought all the tesla shorts committed suicide by now

[CaminoRacer]

So they're the leader in meaningless stuff or things that can't be quantified?

Stock market sure is quantifying it

[MrH]

Stock market sure is quantifying it

The stock market is a measure of belief, not of truth.

[ChrisV]

This is all verifiably false.  It's the exact opposite of what the SEC filings say.  Where are you getting this information?

So they're NOT building gigafactories? And they're NOT rolling out Superchargers that make no money? lol.

[Morris Minor]

Amazon made fuck all, which is infinitely better than what Tesla is doing, which is burn all.  They are not remotely the same situation.  Tesla incinerates cash at a level Amazon could never imagine.  All while taking massive, massive government subsidies.

"it's IPO" ??
in the article... "eskewed" ???

Good Lord, whoever graduated these children should be banned from teaching.
https://www.sproutwired.com/tesla-and-the-amazon-fallacy/

[MrH]

The article is trash, the source for the graph though is Financial Times.  That's years since IPO.

[2o6]

Tesla's cars still have the best in range, usability, and performance. Lots of automakers have yet to produce any car that actually is as good at being an electric cars, like the Model 3 and S. Are they flawed? Yes. But they work.


I get going after the business side of things, but to deny that fact about Tesla cars is delusional.

[MrH]

Tesla's cars still have the best in range, usability, and performance. Lots of automakers have yet to produce any car that actually is as good at being an electric cars, like the Model 3 and S. Are they flawed? Yes. But they work.


I get going after the business side of things, but to deny that fact about Tesla cars is delusional.

So let's break that down:

- Best in range?  According to what?  EPA?  Where the automakers are self reporting?  Tesla consistently tests much lower than its EPA ratings.  Actual tested range is relatively close between direct competitors, ie. Taycan vs Model S, but it's well documented Tesla is also much more aggressive in how it charges and discharges it's batteries.  Again, the competitive advantage here is risk tolerance and quality.

- Usability?  Is this referring to EPA range?  If so, the same above still applies.

- I agree their outright performance is good, but again, a lot of this relates back to their greater appetite for risk.  They are way more aggressive with how they discharge and charge the batteries.  There isn't a specific technology advantage here.  Porsche truly made a performance differentiator with how it shuffles heat around the car to allow for launching non stop.

But I agree, my issues aren't so much with the products as it is with the business itself.  I like the Model S.  Model 3 & Y, not so much.  But you can't totally disconnect the two.  To say no other company has done what they've done: well, yeah.  Tesla is playing by their own set of rules.  They can hemorrhage money left and right and can tap the capital markets to fund their operations.  They can under accrue for warranty reserve and not validate anything during development.  Other car companies don't do this because they know it creates a world of hurt further down the line.

But even with that aside, just give Porsche the ability to burn cash in its operations like Tesla does, and they would destroy Tesla.  But again, the name of the game isn't revenue.  It's not market share.  It's not perception.  All of those things are chased, only as an enabler to a greater profitability.

[MrH]

So they're NOT building gigafactories? And they're NOT rolling out Superchargers that make no money? lol.

Ok, so tell me, which gigafactories are they spending massive amounts of capital on?  And how much are they spending?  And what's the spending on superchargers?  And without that, they're profitable?

Let's take a look!  You need to outspend your depreciation and amortization if you're growing the company.




But how is this possible?!  They built a plant in Shanghai!  Funny you mention that.  China paid for the plant.  It's not on Tesla's balance sheet.  On top of that, Tesla has to spend an additional $5B in capex over the next 5 years and generate $400m in taxes annually starting in 2023, or Xi Jinping takes control.



Ok, so your narrative that they're spending huge money on plants is dead.  That's not happening.


Your next point: superchargers are where the real money is!  They're way ahead of everyone.  Ok, so what's the supercharger network really worth?  Let's see.

As of March 2020, Tesla operates 16,103 Superchargers in 1,826 stations worldwide;[2] these include 908 stations in the U.S., 98 in Canada, 16 in Mexico, 520 in Europe, and 398 in the Asia/Pacific region

So they have something around 16k-17k superchargers.

Most comparable is probably something like Chargepoint.  How many chargers do they have?  100k.  Literally over 5 times as many as Tesla.  And what's their valuation?  They're going public at a $2.4B valuation.

https://www.ft.com/content/ee880679-93ab-43ef-aa80-5de2610d5d5c

So superchargers is this great differentiator, and it's worth essentially $500M....to a company that's valued at over $500B.  0.1% of Tesla's valuation can be explained by it's supercharger network.

[shp4man]

I just completed a technical training course on the new E-Mustang vehicle. The battery weights over a half ton. There are two and four wheel drive models, and eco, normal and sport suspension and power settings.
Is this the future? Maybe.

[r0tor]

So let's break that down:

- Best in range?  According to what?  EPA?  Where the automakers are self reporting?  Tesla consistently tests much lower than its EPA ratings.  Actual tested range is relatively close between direct competitors, ie. Taycan vs Model S, but it's well documented Tesla is also much more aggressive in how it charges and discharges it's batteries.  Again, the competitive advantage here is risk tolerance and quality.

- Usability?  Is this referring to EPA range?  If so, the same above still applies.

- I agree their outright performance is good, but again, a lot of this relates back to their greater appetite for risk.  They are way more aggressive with how they discharge and charge the batteries.  There isn't a specific technology advantage here.  Porsche truly made a performance differentiator with how it shuffles heat around the car to allow for launching non stop.

But I agree, my issues aren't so much with the products as it is with the business itself.  I like the Model S.  Model 3 & Y, not so much.  But you can't totally disconnect the two.  To say no other company has done what they've done: well, yeah.  Tesla is playing by their own set of rules.  They can hemorrhage money left and right and can tap the capital markets to fund their operations.  They can under accrue for warranty reserve and not validate anything during development.  Other car companies don't do this because they know it creates a world of hurt further down the line.

But even with that aside, just give Porsche the ability to burn cash in its operations like Tesla does, and they would destroy Tesla.  But again, the name of the game isn't revenue.  It's not market share.  It's not perception.  All of those things are chased, only as an enabler to a greater profitability.

EPA testing is based upon testing standards and not some made up number.  Tesla scores well because it's batteries have more capacity because their battery tech is better, they can push the batteries to use more of the rated capacity because their battery tech is better, and they can push performance and regen harder because their battery tech is better.  Their motors are also showing better efficiencies then their competition.  They have a large undisputable 5-10 year lead in battery and motor tech which are the 2 things that make an EV.


and lol at the sore butthole from his burned shorts narrative on Tesla's business operations.  Still waiting for how many years now for the SEC to expose how dirty tesla is and make tesla go bankrupt blah blah blah blah

[MrH]

EPA testing is based upon testing standards and not some made up number.  Tesla scores well because it's batteries have more capacity because their battery tech is better, they can push the batteries to use more of the rated capacity because their battery tech is better, and they can push performance and regen harder because their battery tech is better.  Their motors are also showing better efficiencies then their competition.  They have a large undisputable 5-10 year lead in battery and motor tech which are the 2 things that make an EV.

They buy their batteries from Panasonic. What's proprietary or advantageous about them? Any automaker can source the exact same thing. Tesla just assembles them into the skateboard in Nevada.

[Morris Minor]

They buy their batteries from Panasonic. What's proprietary or advantageous about them? Any automaker can source the exact same thing. Tesla just assembles them into the skateboard in Nevada.

They put them to better use than the competition: Tesla Wh/mile > The Rest.
Also they will be moving on from Panasonic, and will pull even further ahead of the competition with their own 4680-based packs.

[MrH]

They put them to better use than the competition: Tesla Wh/mile > The Rest.
Also they will be moving on from Panasonic, and will pull even further ahead of the competition with their own 4680-based packs.

They're not going anywhere.  They have purchase commitments with Panasonic.  Forget exactly when they end, but they're big.

As to Wh/mile, it's interesting to see what they do differently from an EPA.
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a33824052/adjustment-factor-tesla-uses-for-big-epa-range-numbers/

C&D got the same range on the Taycan and Model S on their 75 mph test despite massive EPA differences.

If there's one point of advantage, it's motor control than anything else.

[veeman]

To me the biggest difference between the model S and Taycan is the price. Model S long range plus is $69 thousand and performance is $92 thousand.  Taycan models range from $103 thousand, $151 thousand, and $185 thousand, so realistically more than that given Porsche pricing.  Add $10 thousand to the Tesla price and you have the most advanced autopilot on the market.  Does Porsche even have autopilot?  So while you can race laps in the Porsche without degradation in performance compared with the Tesla, most people aren't taking their EV to the track.

Personally I'd take a Model S for $80 thousand with autopilot just for the neat toy factor of it over a 30 thousand dollar higher price base Porsche Taycan. 

[MrH]

To me the biggest difference between the model S and Taycan is the price. Model S long range plus is $69 thousand and performance is $92 thousand.  Taycan models range from $103 thousand, $151 thousand, and $185 thousand, so realistically more than that given Porsche pricing.  Add $10 thousand to the Tesla price and you have the most advanced autopilot on the market.  Does Porsche even have autopilot?  So while you can race laps in the Porsche without degradation in performance compared with the Tesla, most people aren't taking their EV to the track.

Personally I'd take a Model S for $80 thousand with autopilot just for the neat toy factor of it over a 30 thousand dollar higher price base Porsche Taycan. 

What makes you think $10,000 extra makes Tesla the most advanced autopilot on the market?  Companies are spending billions and billions chasing this goal.  It's not a variable cost to the vehicle that's the hurdle.    If it was just a matter of throwing more at component cost of $10,000 into each vehicle, we would be there already.

[r0tor]

They buy their batteries from Panasonic. What's proprietary or advantageous about them? Any automaker can source the exact same thing. Tesla just assembles them into the skateboard in Nevada.

How ignorant is that statement.

Panasonic is a supplier they partnered for with the cells.  They developed the cells in a partnership.  Cells are only a part of the battery system which also includes thermal and charging management which are as important or even more important.

If stopping at the panasonic warehouse and picking up batteries was as simple as that, other OEMs wouldn't be spending billions on development and still delivering new products with inferior battery capacities, cost, and output.

[r0tor]

What makes you think $10,000 extra makes Tesla the most advanced autopilot on the market?  Companies are spending billions and billions chasing this goal.  It's not a variable cost to the vehicle that's the hurdle.    If it was just a matter of throwing more at component cost of $10,000 into each vehicle, we would be there already.

Tesla has the most advanced autopilot because they have the most real world data.  All these systems use machine learning and AI at their core to try control the limitless variables that driving in the real world has to offer.  These systems are only as good as the data sets they are trained off of and nobody has a fraction of the real world data Tesla has.

[veeman]

Mr H I know what your feelings are about Tesla (as does everyone on this board  ) but there is no car south of 100 thousand available to the general public in the USA which can drive half the way or over half the way from one destination to another by itself. Stop at stop signs, stop at traffic lights, recognize cross walks, temporarily real time auto fold side view mirrors at highway speeds to avoid cars which are too close, etc etc.  Every month or so, there's a new update made available. What other car can you call to pick you up from a mall parking lot?  What other car learns obstacles in your garage so that it can better auto park in your garage?  Few cars have a sentry mode where it records anyone close to the car while the car is parked and the owner is away from the car.  It's the closest itineration to KITT from Knight Rider available to the general public at a non-super car price. 

Personally, I think it's very dangerous to use without a lot of caution and hand holding because it's prone to a lot of error but it is the most amazing toy out there.  It really is.  Whatever you may feel and have data to support that it's not the best out there, that google or apple or whatever has more advanced stuff, blah blah blah.  Which other car is it currently available on?  What other car is so much a toy that get's the owner excited about what new advancement will be auto downloaded onto their car?

Every time I get in my brother in law's model S, he has another gimmick to show me.  He can make each seat make a fart noise.  It's awesome what Tesla is doing.  It really is. 

Everyone has their mantra.  Rotor wants everyone restricted and padlocked inside their home because of the coronavirus pandemic.  That's his thing (it's a joke).  Your mantra is chrome on cars sucks and Tesla sucks.  I get it. 

[Morris Minor]

They're not going anywhere.  They have purchase commitments with Panasonic.  Forget exactly when they end, but they're big.

As to Wh/mile, it's interesting to see what they do differently from an EPA.
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a33824052/adjustment-factor-tesla-uses-for-big-epa-range-numbers/

C&D got the same range on the Taycan and Model S on their 75 mph test despite massive EPA differences.

If there's one point of advantage, it's motor control than anything else.

The Berlin-produced cars will have the 4680-based systems: Fremont & Shanghai will transition based on experience gained in Berlin.

[AutobahnSHO]

Tesla has the most advanced autopilot because they have the most real world data.  All these systems use machine learning and AI at their core to try control the limitless variables that driving in the real world has to offer.  These systems are only as good as the data sets they are trained off of and nobody has a fraction of the real world data Tesla has.

hahahahahaa at anything that says "AI" or "machine learning".

[Laconian]

hahahahahaa at anything that says "AI" or "machine learning".

It's true, though. They train neural networks to control a lot of these systems. Their code doesn't actually have formal descriptions of what street signs or pedestrians look like. It's all learned datasets.

[Galaxy]

It's true, though. They train neural networks to control a lot of these systems. Their code doesn't actually have formal descriptions of what street signs or pedestrians look like. It's all learned datasets.

That is the kind of code that will lead to Skynet. "Eradicte all threats" = wipe out the human race.

[Laconian]

That is the kind of code that will lead to Skynet. "Eradicte all threats" = wipe out the human race.

Yeah, neural networks are kind of spooky.

[Morris Minor]

I wonder if, one day, they'll leverage in the Starlink infrastructure for the backhaul to the Tesla network, and for in-car consumers' devices. Good low latency bandwidth, 100% coverage, no need for 3rd-party carriers.

[r0tor]

hahahahahaa at anything that says "AI" or "machine learning".

I'm doing some basic entry levelachine learning stuff at work and it's amazing what it can do