US reaches EV tipping point

[CaminoRacer]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-09/us-electric-car-sales-reach-key-milestone

Many people of a certain age can recall the first time they held a smartphone. The devices were weird and expensive and novel enough to draw a crowd at parties. Then, less than a decade later, it became unusual not to own one.

That same society-altering shift is happening now with electric vehicles, according to a Bloomberg analysis of adoption rates around the world. The US is the latest country to pass what's become a critical EV tipping point: 5% of new car sales powered only by electricity. This threshold signals the start of mass EV adoption, the period when technological preferences rapidly flip, according to the analysis.

For the past six months, the US joined Europe and China — collectively the three largest car markets — in moving beyond the 5% tipping point. If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025. That would be a year or two ahead of most major forecasts.

[SJ_GTI]

I don't think cars will flip as fast as phones (or other tech stuff). Cars are long lived assets.

That being said I take the point that EV adoption is speeding up, not slowing down.

[CaminoRacer]

I don't think cars will flip as fast as phones (or other tech stuff). Cars are long lived assets.

That being said I take the point that EV adoption is speeding up, not slowing down.

I agree. Their numbers seem to agree as well. Growing from 5% to 25% of sales in 3-4 years is slow for tech.

[Morris Minor]

This is interesting.
IMO we're just coming out of the evangelical & nerdy early-adopters phase. And we're entering the mainstream acceptance stage. There will be lots of problems with public charging, it's wild west at the moment, but those will be ironed out.

I did work for a state government agency here, and the head honcho was completely addicted to his BlackBerry: he lived on the thing, expert user, who'd figured out every tip & trick. After months of trying, I finally persuaded him to give it up. The final catalyst was an email system migration. After a day or two with the iPhone his allegiance flipped 180 deg.

[veeman]

I don't think this will happen (25% of new car sales being EV by the end of year 2025 in the USA).  Reasons include:

a. Unlikely I think for the Democratic party to hold onto or gain Legislative, Executive, or Judicial power at the Federal level in the next decade.  Wherever EV has had mass adoption (i.e. Norway and Iceland) it is due to government policy which heavily penalizes ICE and subsidizes EV.  The Democratic party is substantially more likely to institute policies which suppress ICE and favor EV at a national level. 

b. The average American drives significantly longer distances on a daily level than the average Western European.  Americans have the highest average distance travelled by personal car in the world by a long shot.

c. Current economic indices make it unlikely for the U.S. to effectively put in a nation-wide network of electric vehicle charging stations to meet the demand of Americans' driving habits. 

d. Public transportation options in the majority of the U.S. are nil and in those where it is available, is increasingly becoming more expensive, less safe, and less reliable.

e. 65% of Americans own their own homes where home charging is much more feasible.  Home ownership rate for Millenials is < 50%. 

f. Long distance interstate travel by personal vehicle, which is what Americans' do for vacation, is not currently easy with EV, particularly non-Tesla branded EV. 

g. The analogy of smart phone adoption fails at the fundamental level that smart phones do not require the end user to make a significant sacrifice compared with a flip phone.  EV adoption requires many sacrifices. 

h. The U.S. culturally considers the price of a gallon of gasoline a benchmark to measure inflation and economic wellness (In France, it is the price of a baguette).  Because of this pegging of the price of a gallon of gasoline to economic wellness, it is extremely unlikely the govt will allow the price of gasoline to substantially increase based purely on market forces.  Federal and state subsidies will be given, as they have been given in the forms of gasoline tax holidays, to reduce price pain at the pump. Also case in point, Biden making a visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

For these reasons and probably a few more (like the clout big oil has on U.S. govt policy), I predict the 25% pure EV adoption rate will occur in the U.S.A. in 2030 and the 50% adoption rate will occur in 2050.  75% pure EV adoption rate will never occur. Armageddon from climate change, potable water shortage, food shortage, infectious disease, crime, and war will occur before that.

[GoCougs]

The other stark issue not mentioned is some 10 years later EV sales mostly Tesla, the only two EVs remotely close to ICE parity are $150,000+ luxo barges, and other EV-only manufacturers are somewhere between scams (Lordstown, Nikola) and (Rivian, Lucid), and that is after unparalleled largesse from government regulation and equity markets. One can point to the Mach-E and F150 Lightning, but one can also point to the Bolt and Leaf.

At least hybrids were equivalents, albeit more expensive, than ICE-only vehicles. There is no path by which EVs become equivalent, esp. for trucks and SUVs (the top sellers in the US), and WtP love fads and virtue signaling and all the rest of it, but goddamned if we're going to change our driving habits (i.e., MUCH less of it, esp. shorter distances).

[Laconian]

VW and BYD will dethrone Tesla very soon.

[SJ_GTI]

VW and BYD will dethrone Tesla very soon.

IIRC BYD is already selling more EV's than Tesla, but those are mostly Chinese market cars that aren't really comparable to cars that can be sold in the US and Europe.

I think VW also outsold Tesla in Europe.

Considering Tesla's share of the total EV market gets smaller each year it seems silly to keep claiming that "EV sales [are] mostly Tesla."

[Morris Minor]

IIRC BYD is already selling more EV's than Tesla, but those are mostly Chinese market cars that aren't really comparable to cars that can be sold in the US and Europe.

I think VW also outsold Tesla in Europe.

Considering Tesla's share of the total EV market gets smaller each year it seems silly to keep claiming that "EV sales [are] mostly Tesla."

If the definition of EV includes PHEVs then yes, BYD sell more EVs.
Tesla sold 565,000 vehicles in 2022 Q1 & Q2
BYD sold 641,000, 318,000 of which have gasoline tanks.

[GoCougs]

TBH, I'm having a real problem with the word, "silly." I don't know what to do.

[Morris Minor]

The silliest part of this IMO is any manufacturer creating dependencies on China, the wobbliest leg on the stool and liable to be kicked out at any minute.