The Automotive Valley of Death

[Morris Minor]

A quote from Martin Viecha I saw on this:
"I find this highly nonconsensual theory fascinating. What if ICE sales collapse well before EV capacity grows to a level of say ~90M/year vehicles. A period in which there are not enough EVs to go around, but it doesn't make any sense to buy an ICE anymore. What do you think?"

The future of the ICE Car Manufacturer - Valley of Death or Market Domination?
A chart on twitter has divided opinion on how the EV adoption will occur and what it will mean for incumbent manufacturers and new entrants into the automotive market. It is provocatively labelled the 'Valley of Death' for traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) manufacturers who cling too long to their preferred technology, even as EVs start to dominate new sales in key markets such as China, Europe – and now the US.

More: https://newautomotive.org/blog/valley-of-death

[MrH]

I would like to report an infographic crime.

[giant_mtb]

Yeahhhhhh, no. People strung out on EVs either don't live where it gets cold or don't live where there's essentially zero charging infrastructure besides a handful of Tesla stations at the Meijer store that I've never seen used.

[Soup DeVille]

Yeahhhhhh, no. People strung out on EVs either don't live where it gets cold or don't live where there's essentially zero charging infrastructure besides a handful of Tesla stations at the Meijer store that I've never seen used.

Dude, you live 120 miles from anywhere. You aint normal.

[giant_mtb]

Dude, you live 120 miles from anywhere. You aint normal.

Right. And if the "normal" people keep wanting to make laws and rules that make no sense to us "not normal" people (ie, no more ICEs allowed after 2020-whatever), it pisses us off because it makes zero sense.

[Soup DeVille]

Right. And if the "normal" people keep wanting to make laws and rules that make no sense to us "not normal" people (ie, no more ICEs allowed after 2020-whatever), it pisses us off because it makes zero sense.

The wonders of democracy my man.

[giant_mtb]

The wonders of democracy my man.

Got damn city slickers! Where do you think your toilet paper and iron ore comes from!

[Soup DeVille]

Got damn city slickers! Where do you think your toilet paper and iron ore comes from!

Walmart.

and umm, a boat or something.

[giant_mtb]

Walmart.

and umm, a boat or something.

[cawimmer430]

The future needs to be mixed.


Internal Combustion Engines running on carbon neutral eFuels, and BEVs and Fuel Cells. Take your pick and be happy with your choice. I'm sick of governments and their green lobbyists telling us what to drive.

[r0tor]

The future needs to be mixed.


Internal Combustion Engines running on carbon neutral eFuels, and BEVs and Fuel Cells. Take your pick and be happy with your choice. I'm sick of governments and their green lobbyists telling us what to drive.

Then you literally need 3x the infrastructure

[Laconian]

I bet the transitional state will likely be beefy hybridized drivetrains with gasoline. You can do a lot of nice things with a few kilowatt hours without it costing a lot, and you retain the flexibility of ICE

[Morris Minor]

I bet the transitional state will likely be beefy hybridized drivetrains with gasoline. You can do a lot of nice things with a few kilowatt hours without it costing a lot, and you retain the flexibility of ICE

I think that's right. Apart from better fuel consumption numbers, residuals on hybrids will be/are better than on gas cars - plus tax breaks on "electrifieds" to help things .along.

[giant_mtb]

Sorta surprised there aren't more/better hybrid options out there. Ever since Tesla blew open the EV hole, manufacturers seem to just be focused on going pure EV instead of focusing on a middle ground.

[Laconian]

I think that's going to change. The hybrid Toyotas are the hottest shit at the moment. It's impossible to find a RAV4 Prime anywhere. The Sienna hybrid is shockingly fuel efficient for its size.

[giant_mtb]

I think that's going to change. The hybrid Toyotas are the hottest shit at the moment. It's impossible to find a RAV4 Prime anywhere. The Sienna hybrid is shockingly fuel efficient for its size.

And yet people talk shit about how Toyota is "behind" on EVs when they literally pioneered hybrid technology. They know what they're doing.

[Soup DeVille]

And yet people talk shit about how Toyota is "behind" on EVs when they literally pioneered hybrid technology. They know what they're doing.

Toyota is always playing the long game. Its part of their culture. Letting other companies feel out where the market and technology is going is part of that.

[GoCougs]

It's been more than 20 years since the Prius debuted and WtP still only Jones for Toyota hybrids. The value - both financial and environmental - is dubious with hybrids: the Rav4 Prime costs 50% more than a base Rav4 ($42k vs. $28k).

[giant_mtb]

Toyota is always playing the long game. Its part of their culture. Letting other companies feel out where the market and technology is going is part of that.

100%. They are the epitome of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."  FCA is the complete opposite. They fix everything that isn't broken so everything is always broken.

[Morris Minor]

It's been more than 20 years since the Prius debuted and WtP still only Jones for Toyota hybrids. The value - both financial and environmental - is dubious with hybrids: the Rav4 Prime costs 50% more than a base Rav4 ($42k vs. $28k).

The CO2 Crunchies agree with this; they were not pleased with the Inflation Reduction Act giving tax breaks for mild hybrids. That word, "Electrified," is the mark of virtue for the legacy auto makers.

[giant_mtb]

The CO2 Crunchies agree with this; they were not pleased with the Inflation Reduction Act giving tax breaks for mild hybrids. That word, "Electrified," is the mark of virtue for the legacy auto makers.

God forbid we encourage a middle ground during a global change in electrical/energy infrastructure being forced upon us.

[FoMoJo]

It's been more than 20 years since the Prius debuted and WtP still only Jones for Toyota hybrids. The value - both financial and environmental - is dubious with hybrids: the Rav4 Prime costs 50% more than a base Rav4 ($42k vs. $28k).

Hybrids were only ever a stop-gap until batteries and infrastructure were developed to a sustainable state to support EVs.  After 20 years much progress has been made, but we're not there yet.

The only knock against hybrids is the additional complexity, but they've proven rather reliable to this point.

[AutobahnSHO]

Right. And if the "normal" people keep wanting to make laws and rules that make no sense to us "not normal" people (ie, no more ICEs allowed after 2020-whatever), it pisses us off because it makes zero sense.

This is the history of conservatism vs liberalism, which is a core component of government squabbles for hundreds of years. What's good for NYC, NY is not good for the rest of the state (only saving grace there is the capitol is not NYC). Or the (well-peopled) capitol of practically any country vs the rural agrarian based rest of the country. Etc...

[AutobahnSHO]

I think that's going to change. The hybrid Toyotas are the hottest shit at the moment. It's impossible to find a RAV4 Prime anywhere. The Sienna hybrid is shockingly fuel efficient for its size.

Ford Maverick. Ford projected 30% would be hybrid and 70%turbow.  Instead it was 50/50 and only because they stopped taking orders, and those in the waiting game know that the turbow is easier to take delivery of a real vehicle.

EDIT: If the hybrid had available AWD it would likely have been much much much more popular, too. But only FWD for now.

[giant_mtb]

Ford fucked up by not having AWD optional for the hybrid. Almost a comical mistake by them considering they're a Michigan-based company (aka, where snow happens). Granted, they can't even keep up with demand as it is and I'm sure they'll soon release and AWD hybrid after their initial batch of orders is somehow completed.

[veeman]

Ford fucked up by not having AWD optional for the hybrid. Almost a comical mistake by them considering they're a Michigan-based company (aka, where snow happens). Granted, they can't even keep up with demand as it is and I'm sure they'll soon release and AWD hybrid after their initial batch of orders is somehow completed.

I'm not sure this was a fuck up because AWD increases cost and decreases gas mileage.  The FWD hybrid is a $22 grand truck with 37 mpg fuel economy.  You're right though that 2nd time around they should offer it in AWD guise. 

[AutobahnSHO]

I'm not sure this was a fuck up because AWD increases cost and decreases gas mileage.  The FWD hybrid is a $22 grand truck with 37 mpg fuel economy.  You're right though that 2nd time around they should offer it in AWD guise. 

42mpg city

[Morris Minor]

Ford is having some problems negotiating its way through the Valley. It's just taken a beating shutting down its joint AI venture with VW, Argo. If someone else cracks the autonomy problem, Ford will be ordering it in.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/26/ford-vw-backed-argo-ai-is-shutting-down/

(There's also the debt problem - hope they'll be okay - Mach-E is a good sign)

[giant_mtb]

I'm not sure this was a fuck up because AWD increases cost and decreases gas mileage.  The FWD hybrid is a $22 grand truck with 37 mpg fuel economy.  You're right though that 2nd time around they should offer it in AWD guise.

That's why it's called an "option."  People who want/need it will happily pay for it and nobody gives a hoot about a couple lost MPGs.

[cawimmer430]

Then you literally need 3x the infrastructure

Well the infrastructure for liquid fuels already exists.

Electrical infrastructure shouldn't be that difficult to create.

Hydrogen could be produced at hydrogen filling stations and then sold there.